Control of the House of Representatives could come down to California. And it could take days — or weeks — to determine.
Some of the nation’s tightest midterm races are in California’s Central Valley, a 280-mile purple stretch of fertile farmland in the middle of a left-leaning state. Overall, GOP candidates are faring well here, even in districts that have more registered Democrats than Republicans.
Republicans did not match analysts’ expectations of a “red wave” on Tuesday night. Still, they are expected to take a majority of seats, though it won’t be by an overwhelming amount.
It might take weeks for a victor to be announced in some of these districts. For now, this is where all of the candidates stand in each Central Valley congressional district.
5th district
Congressman Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, was declared the winner on Election Night. He defeated his Democratic challenger, attorney Mike Barkley.
California’s 5th Congressional District covers the western Sierra Nevada, from El Dorado Hills through parts of Modesto and Fresno to Cedar Grove and Kings Canyon National Park.
McClintock, 66, has represented California in the House since 2009. Staunchly conservative, he vehemently opposed California COVID restrictions and criticized Democrats in 2019 for looking for a way to impeach former President Donald Trump.
While he denounced violence during the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, he did not vote to impeach Trump. Still, McClintock was one of seven House Republicans who did not support challenging the results of the 2020 presidential election on Jan. 6.
9th district
Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, leads in the race against his Republican challenger, San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti.
The Democratic congressman had more than 56% of the votes with almost 43% of them counted, per the Associated Press.
A moderate, he has pushed for water access and against some Democratic Sacramento policies; he wants politicians to suspend the gas tax and halt the Delta tunnel project.
Harder, 36, first entered Congress by unseating Republican Rep. Jeff Denham in the 2018 “blue wave” and has represented the bottom third of California’s new 9th Congressional District since. The Turlock native’s current district was spliced apart through redistricting, the once-a-decade redrawing of legislative boundaries.
The 9th runs from Thornton through San Joaquin County to Tracy and Ripon. It’s centered around Stockton.
Patti, 59, was elected to the San Joaquin County board of supervisors in 2016. He operates a crane company there founded by his father. His main concerns are reducing homelessness and bolstering health care access.
13th district
Republican farmer John Duarte is just slightly ahead of Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, in this open district.
Duarte had 50.1% of the votes with more than half of them counted, per the AP. Gray is about 200 votes — two-tenths of a percentage point — behind.
After redistricting last year, political experts thought that California’s 13th Congressional District leaned in favor of a Democrat. Closer to California’s primary, the district was touted as a potential GOP pickup.
Then when Republican candidates took 52% of votes in the primary, analysts said that the election there was a toss-up. Before Election Day, some analysts thought Duarte had a leg up.
The 13th covers all of Merced County in a stretch from Lathrop past Coalinga, taking in half of Modesto and Turlock.
Forty-three percent of registered voters there are Democrats; 28% are Republicans. Voters there would have elected President Joe Biden by 11 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election, but they also would have voted to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom last year by a point.
Gray, 45, has represented much of the area in the Assembly since 2012. A moderate Democrat, he has fought for water access and infrastructure, and for the creation of a medical school program at UC Merced.
Modesto’s Duarte, 56, similarly names water access as a main concern. Operator of Duarte Nursery in Hughson, he wants to curb government spending as a means to tackling inflation and allow more drilling of American oil.
20th district
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, was declared the winner on Election Night. He defeated his Democratic challenger, school teacher Marisa Wood, in California’s 20th Congressional District.
McCarthy, 57, already announced his bid to become Speaker of the House, even though key races that will determine a GOP majority have yet to be called.
The Bakersfield native, who was first elected to Congress in 2006, was a fast supporter of Trump, having kept the GOP-vote unified against the first round of impeachment. Following Jan. 6, however, McCarthy criticized the former president and said he should resign in private conversations with Republicans that were caught on tape.
The 20th is the Central Valley’s oddest-looking congressional district. It captures Millerton, Clovis and part of Fresno in a top arm. It extends out to Lemoore in a second arm and grabs Maricopa and half of Bakersfield in a third arm. It otherwise runs from Hartland to Rosamond in the south.
21st district
Congressman Jim Costa, D-Fresno, is outpacing his Republican challenger, businessman and veteran Michael Maher, in the new 21st Congressional District.
The “Blue Dog” Democrat had 53.4% of the votes, per the AP, with almost 58% of the them counted.
The 21st district holds most of the city of Fresno, covering parts of Fresno and Tulare counties.
Costa, 70, joined the House in 2005. He sits on committees for agriculture, natural resources and foreign affairs, which cover some of his main campaign issues.
Maher, 39, enlisted in the navy following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, and later worked as a special agent with the FBI. Coming from a family who served in the Air Force, he worked for an air charter company before founding his own aviation business.
22nd district
Congressman David Valadao, R-Hanford, broke away from Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, in this San Joaquin Valley congressional district that experts said was a toss-up for a year.
It’s still anyone’s game. Valadao had 54% of the votes with less than 40% of them counted, according to the AP.
California’s 22nd Congressional District runs from Hanford to Shafter. The district has a Hispanic-majority voting age population. There are more Democrats than Republicans registered there, and the district would have picked Biden in 2020 by 13 percentage points.
But Valadao, 45, has swung Democratic voters before, and previously represented a blue district. He’s also had tough elections in the previous two cycles: He lost his seat by a razor-thin margin in 2018 to former Democratic Rep. T.J. Cox and regained it by the same difference in 2020.
The dairy farmer prioritizes water and agricultural issues. A moderate, he was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump over inciting the 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. If he wins, he will be one of two who are still in Congress.
Salas, also 45, has been a long-time buzzed-about moderate candidate to run for Congress. The Bakersfield native has represented the area in the Assembly for a decade, working on health care issues and affordability for Valley families.
If voters pick him, he would be the San Joaquin Valley’s first Latino House member.
The race between these two attracted the most television advertisements by far of any House race in the country leading up to the election, per the Wesleyan Media Project.
