WASHINGTON — Get used to it.
California voters watched the recall election results roll in Tuesday night, determining which governor will lead them for the next year. Those ballots are just a precursor to the next election that will shape the state’s and nation’s future out of Washington, D.C.
The upcoming 2022 midterms have thrown U.S. congressional representatives quickly back into campaign mode. They are counting their money and votes now.
Democrat Rep. Josh Harder returned home to Turlock at the end of August to visit constituents, attending festivals and a local high school football game.
Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., ramped up his fundraising over the first half of 2021. He had $820,000 in the bank at the end of June.
These two incumbents have a fight on their hands. They hold two of the seven California House seats considered by party experts and election observers to be up for grabs.
Also looking at this 2022 election horizon are two other Californians. Speaker Nancy Pelosi will find out whether she keeps her job or cedes it to Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
“Midterms are often challenging for the president’s party, and some familiar signs are emerging in favor of Republicans,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan analysis group.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 seats in the Senate will be contested in the election on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. Primaries to select candidates for those contests are scheduled for June 7 in California.
The consequences could be stark for the nation, as well as California. This will be a referendum on President Joe Biden, whose approval numbers have been falling. It also will be a test for Republicans who have been unfailingly loyal to former President Donald Trump. And it will be the latest national expression of whether people are simply fed up with government, an anger that has surfaced repeatedly in congressional elections over the past 10 years.
If a throw-the-bums-out mentality prevails, Congress and the entire tone of its debate will change dramatically.
Both parties have begun their appeals.
Three advertisement campaigns sponsored by the National Republican Congressional Committee slam inflation, blaming Democratic House members for backing policies that could contribute to it, calling out Harder specifically on the cost of school supplies, groceries and other everyday goods.
“Californians already pay some of the highest taxes in the country and House Democrats want to tax them even more. Democrats’ massive tax hikes will crush small businesses, hurt middle-class families and cause even more damage to our struggling economy,” said NRCC Spokeswoman Torunn Sinclair.
Democrats are focusing on COVID-19 safety.
“Vulnerable national Republicans David Valadao, Young Kim, Mike Garcia, and Michelle Steel are propping up anti-vaccine extremists to govern California while they subject their constituents to a prolonged pandemic and economic crisis,” said Adrian Eng-Gastelum, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
If Republicans win the House, McCarthy is positioned to become speaker. Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., is a good bet to head the House Ways and Means Committee, which writes tax, health care, trade and Social Security legislation.
Current Speaker Pelosi would become minority leader if she chose to stay in leadership. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., would no longer chair the powerful House Financial Services Committee, which considers banking and housing legislation.
Rep. Mark Takano, D-Calif., would not head the House Veterans Affairs Committee. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., would relinquish his high-profile leadership of the House Intelligence Committee.
Republicans need a net gain of five House seats and one Senate seat to take control of those chambers. That means California will be a major House battleground.
Sen. Alex Padilla, a Democrat appointed to fill the seat vacated when Kamala Harris became vice president in January, is considered a strong favorite to win next year.
But Sabato’s Crystal Ball sees several California House seats in play.
Tuesday’s election on whether to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom was expected to provide strong hints of the campaigns to come. Newsom opened a wide lead in the University of California, Berkeley poll taken Aug. 30 to Sept. 6, as he charged that Republicans were too extreme and dangerous for California.
Newsom and his allies hammered at the refusal of major Republican figures to back COVID-19 vaccines and recall proponents’ ties to President Donald Trump.
Four California districts represented by Republicans voted for Biden last year, making those House incumbents vulnerable. Biden won by more than 10 percentage points in the districts represented by Valadao and Reps. Mike Garcia and Young Kim and by 1.5 percentage points in Michelle Steel’s district. All are Republicans.
The analysis also puts the seats of three Democratic House members — Reps. Harder, Katie Porter and Mike Levin — into the “leans Democratic” column, meaning Republicans have a shot.
Each is regarded as a swing district, since each Democrat replaced a Republican in the 2018 elections. Harder, whose district includes Stanislaus County and part of San Joaquin County, beat Rep. Jeff Denham, a Republican.
Porter, whose district includes part of Orange County, also first won her seat in 2018. She beat Republican incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters. Levin, who represents part of the San Diego area, succeeded Republican Rep. Darrell Issa in 2019.
Midterm voters, however, often register their views on the president more than their opinion of any particular candidate.
Biden’s approval rating has dipped over the past month, to 45.3%, according to RealClearPolitics, which averages polls. Backlash over his handling of rescue efforts from Afghanistan, natural disasters and a persistent COVID-19 pandemic have voters in a sour mood.
As a president’s approval rating goes, so usually goes the midterm trend, according to data compiled by the University of California, Santa Barbara. Trump’s numbers were in the low 40s throughout the fall of 2018. His party suffered a net loss of 40 House seats and control of the chamber. Eight years earlier, President Barack Obama’s approval number was 45% during the fall, and his party lost 63 House seats and control.
“Republicans also have many more candidates who narrowly lost House races last year running again compared to Democrats — that to me is an indication of a party that is a bit more excited about its House prospects,” Kondik said. He noted that Democrats have more “consequential retirements,” such as Reps. Ron Kind of Wisconsin and Cheri Bustos of Illinois. Both won last year in districts Trump carried.
None of this means Democrats are headed for disaster. “History sides with Republicans in this midterm election, but the political landscape is all mixed up right now,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York.
Should Biden and the economy rebound, or COVID-19 becomes less of a concern, the picture changes — though even in such good times, the president’s party falters a bit. President George H.W. Bush had an approval rating in the high 50s in fall 1990, yet his Republican Party still lost eight House seats.
Only three times since 1932 has the president’s party gained seats in a midterm election — in 1934, as the New Deal eased the Great Depression; in 1998, as the economy boomed under President Bill Clinton; and in 2002, as President George W. Bush rallied much of the country behind his fight against terrorism, when the GOP gained eight House seats.
It’s also not clear how redistricting — the process by which congressional districts are redrawn based on Census data — could affect races as California prepares to lose a seat in the House of Representatives, decreasing its delegation to 52 representatives.
Although the population in the Central Valley has been decently stable, lines might be redrawn to accommodate bigger changes in the northern and southern parts of the state. Incumbents could find themselves seeking reelection in a reshaped district.
Candidates have entered races on each side of the aisle in the Central Valley, home to some vulnerable incumbents.
Valadao faces former California Assemblywoman Nicole Parra, Delano Mayor Bryan Osario, and Angel Lara, a former care coordinator for unhoused individuals. He also faces Republican Chris Mathys, a Trump supporter who is largely self-funding, among others. Mathys went to the “Save America Summit” at the Trump National Doral resort in Florida in April.
“Voters are also concerned about RINO’s ‘Republican In Name Only’ like David Valadao of California, and Liz Cheney of Wyoming, who voted for impeachment and then voted with Speaker Pelosi to create Jan. 6 commission accusing fellow Republicans of being afraid of the truth,” Mathys said in an email.
“COVID recovery and the economy, reliable access to clean water, and the threat to our democracy that we are seeing across the country and right here at home,” Lara said of the key issues in his district. “Our district is known for low turnout and I am running a campaign that plans to engage and organize all members of our community.”
Harder will go head-to-head with several first-time candidates. On the right, he faces Turlock veteran Jack Griffith, San Jose business owner Simon Aslanpour and Jolene Daly, a therapist in Modesto. On the left, he faces Angelina Sigala, a Modesto infectious disease expert, who told the Turlock Journal that her years as a vaccine advocate primed her to run in this election.
“I’ve lived through everything that people are living through in this county, so I know firsthand if I can make those changes,” she told the Turlock Journal. “I know that people will believe in me and vote for me.”
Aslanpour is a first-generation immigrant from Iran who bought a house in the district this summer. While he does not have a massive Twitter following, he has the largest of the four new candidates, and tweeted his support for the Supreme Court’s refusal to block Texas’ abortion ban this month.
The first Democratic challenger to Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Calif., announced his campaign last week. Dr. Kermit Jones, a Navy veteran, has not run for office before.
Former Democratic challengers to Nunes, Phil Arballo and Eric Garcia, are running again in 2022. Lourin Hubbard and Jorge Sanchez Hernandez are newcomers to the race.
Arballo and Garcia have run on campaigns that they are not Nunes, with Garcia calling his campaign to oust the California Republican, who has backed Trump on several key issues, a “critical mission.”
Valadao and Harder are considered among the most vulnerable incumbents not only in California, but also in the country. McClintock’s and Nunes’ seats are seen as more secure.
Shaping the races are issues already swirling in the districts: how the coronavirus affects day-to-day life, economic worries and the effects of wildfires and drought.
“It’s all about the quality of life,” said Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic consultant. “People will be asking if they’re better off now than two years ago.”
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