Democrats need to flip at least four seats in the House, currently controlled by the Republican Party with 221 seats. The stakes are sky high as every one of the 435 House seats will be on the ballot this election cycle. Among the most heavily contested seats are five in California which figure to be crucial come November 5:
- CA-13 (Merced)
- CA-22 (Bakersfield)
- CA-27 (Palmdale)
- CA-41 (Palm Springs)
- CA-45 (Fullerton)
As with many congressional districts in the state, all of these five have a strong Latino presence among their voters, ranging from 23% to 59.4%. Considering the importance of these constituents, a new poll by The Latino Community Foundation (LCF), in partnership with BSP Research, just revealed insights into their voting tendencies, including candidates of choice and the issues they consider to be most crucial.
The main takeaway from the study is that Latino voters favor Democrats over their Republican counterparts (all incumbents) in all five races, holding leads ranging from +22 to +36.
- In CA-13 (Merced), Democratic challenger Adam Gray leads Rep. John Duarte 46%-26% with 28% undecided.
- In CA-22 (Bakersfield), Democratic challenger Rudy Salas leads Rep. David Valadao 57%-21% with 21% undecided.
- In CA-27 (Palmdale), Democratic challenger George Whitesides leads Rep. Mike Garcia 54%-24% with 22% undecided.
- In CA-41 (Palm Springs), Democratic challenger Will Rollins leads Rep. Ken Calvert 51%-28% with 21% undecided.
- In CA-45 (Fullerton), Democratic challenger Derek Tran leads Rep. Michelle Steel 52%-30% with 19% undecided.
Bakersfield, which encompasses Kern, Kings and Tulare counties, has become a a specially significant race as analysts consider Salas to have the biggest chance at unseating Valadao, who he narrowly lost to back in 2022 by less than 4,000 votes. He would become the first Latino representative for the district in which a whopping 59.4% of eligible voters are Latino.
Salas is also on top among all voters according to the most recent poll by Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill which has the Latino up by a slight lead, 47% to 45%.
The LCF/BSP Research poll also dove into the issues they consider most crucial, with voters overwhelming citing cost of living, housing costs and concerns over jobs and economy.
As for policy issues, approximately 3 in 4 Latino voters across the five congressional districts stated that they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, extended child tax credits for families with children, and a law to guarantee abortion access for women who need it.
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