In October, we all hope for one thing from our NFL teams: competency. Because it’s still so, so early in the season, we just hope they’re relevant and in the playoff picture, gradually improving every week and showing quality progress. The time to give up hope — if it comes around — should ideally be in mid-to-late December at the absolute earliest.
None of this toxic positivity applies to these five depressing NFL squads, who should probably, at least, start putting some feelers out for the 2024 draft in April. They’re delusional if they haven’t already begun.
The arguable top player available in the upcoming draft will be USC quarterback Caleb Williams. As the reigning Heisman Trophy winner (and perhaps someone who will go back-to-back), the overarching sentiment is that Williams will be someone who shifts a franchise’s fortunes overnight. He just might be that field-tilting quarterback who will give one fortunate NFL team a much-needed fresh start. Presumably, barring any dramatic shifts in prospect evaluation in the coming months, Williams will very likely be the next No. 1 overall selection.
With that in mind, let’s examine the current saddest group of teams in professional football and break down why (or why not) they’ll have a chance to draft Williams in the spring. Note: The list below is in no particular order and is not a ranking of anyone’s chances.
1
New York Giants
Current record: 1-3
Why they’ll have the No. 1 pick and a chance at Williams: The Giants, like most bad teams, don’t do anything well. I’m not exaggerating.
They’re 32nd in offensive DVOA efficiency, 27th in defensive efficiency, and 23rd in special teams efficiency. They can’t block on offense (see: their 11 sacks surrendered to the Seattle Seahawks). Their receivers are so uninspiring that some actually believed (hoped?) a 31-year-old Darren Waller would return to elite Pro Bowl form. Last but not least, Daniel Jones is a rusty $160 million anchor on anything Brian Daboll hopes to accomplish.
New York was a playoff team last season by virtue of playing beyond its means. They were the scrappy underdogs landing sly haymakers on unsuspecting opponents every week. This year, the regression has come for Big Blue across the board, and the Giants are paying for thinking they were close to contention.
Why they won’t: The Giants’ worst losses have come at the hands of three of the NFC’s best teams: the Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, and Dallas Cowboys. They also overcame a poor Arizona Cardinals squad in an epic comeback. Suffice it to say, they’re not going to play these kinds of heavyweights every week, and they can definitely hang with fellow boring bottom feeders. Once New York is finished with upcoming matchups against the Miami Dolphins (dear god, part 1) and Buffalo Bills (dear god, part 2), the schedule starts to open up with winnable affairs against the Washington Commanders and New York Jets.
Lest I forget, the Giants have dearly missed their two best players — stalwart left tackle Andrew Thomas and all-worldly running back Saquon Barkley — in recent weeks. They are a different team when they have their primary brick wall up front and when their do-it-all tailback can catalyze the offense.
2
New England Patriots
Current record: 1-3
Why they’ll have the No. 1 pick and a chance at Williams: The Patriots didn’t bench Mac Jones for being terrible against the Cowboys (wink, wink); they just wanted him to get some rest for more important games. They’re playing chess, not checkers, folks.
Okay, no, yes, they did bench Jones. In his third year in the NFL, Jones is the weakest link of an atrocious New England offense with no vertical or explosive element. Heck, it can’t even run the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott — which is as big of an indictment as you can imagine. Unfortunately, the last position you want your weakest link to be is quarterback, leaving the Patriots already grasping at straws in what will probably be another lost season for Bill Belichick.
The Patriots have remaining games against the Bills (twice), Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, and Kansas City Chiefs. Even in an ideal world, I don’t see how they leave that entire slate at anything but 0-5. If that’s not enough, perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Matthew Judon is out indefinitely with a torn biceps muscle, while promising rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez will likely miss the rest of the season after tearing a labrum muscle. If Belichick wanted one more shot to prove he wasn’t all Tom Brady and successfully develop a young quarterback, he very well might get it in April.
Why they won’t: Even without Judon and Gonzalez, this is a Belichick team. The Patriots aren’t just going to throw in the towel. They still have too much sound talent on defense and enough proud veterans overall to completely sink into the quicksand. They are the ultimate high-floor, low-ceiling squad.
And while, yes, New England will eventually have to face down some proper AFC heavyweights, it also has a bunch of toss-up games against the Commanders, Giants, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos, and New York Jets (who it already beat on the road). These are all squads with significant questions and drawbacks of their own. These questions are enough to give the Patriots the benefit of the doubt to squeak out a handful of wins before the end of the year.
3
Chicago Bears
Current record: 0-4
Why they’ll have the No. 1 pick and a chance at Williams: The only team with a more abysmal defense than the Bears is the Broncos. The same Broncos who the Bears just blew a 28-7 lead to in a stunning home collapse. If the Bears were going to get off the schneid and build positive momentum, it would’ve arguably come against the NFL’s other worst team. They couldn’t even manage to clear that low bar.
Which brings me to my main point. Chicago’s defense has the NFL’s worst third-down passing defense (by far), has just two sacks on the year, and a purportedly talented secondary on paper is already in tatters thanks to injuries. Even if Justin Fields continues stacking on his brilliant four-touchdown performance against Denver in the coming weeks and months (which is a big IF), the Bears will likely have to win shootouts against, well, literally everyone they play. Seriously, this defense can’t stop a nosebleed.
Then, even if Fields plays well individually to the end of the year, it’s hard to imagine that a likely new coaching staff (sorry, Matt Eberflus) and potential new general manager won’t just want to start fresh with Williams. Few first-round quarterbacks like Fields survive three separate regimes. It’s just how this business works.
Why they won’t: To avoid picking No. 1 overall and salvage something from this disaster start, the Bears will probably have to be active at the trade deadline. Part of the reason the Bears can’t stop anyone on defense is that they have the NFL’s worst defensive line. Starting nose tackle Andrew Billings has performed well, but you have a lot of problems if he’s the bright spot of a positional group. I would not advise Chicago to be a buyer — sometimes it’s better to just bottom out rather than dip into future resources — but checking in on guys like Minnesota’s Danielle Hunter, Carolina’s Brian Burns, and New York’s Carl Lawson would be the play if the Bears wanted an improved defense quickly.
Beyond defensive progression, Justin Fields and a lackluster offense need more consistency. The Bears simply cannot afford their signature extended lapses of nothing. This offense has to play like a top-half-of-the-league unit to keep the rest of the team afloat for three consecutive months. To this point, Chicago hasn’t shown it has that capability. But it is the necessary baseline performance to avoid picking No. 1 overall for the second straight year.
4
Las Vegas Raiders
Current record: 1-3
Why they’ll have the No. 1 pick and a chance at Williams: It’s a good thing Mark Davis probably can’t afford to fire professional doofus Josh McDaniels. Because keeping McDaniels in charge of (unsuccessfully) putting out the Raiders’ fires (most of which McDaniels starts himself) will give them a legitimate chance at a new, hopeful franchise quarterback. If there were just one person you could pick to haphazardly drive your organization into the ground and salt the earth, it’d be McDaniels. If there was just one person you could choose that probably didn’t even know the rules of football, it’d also be McDaniels, who kicked a field goal twice when his team needed eight points against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
At the moment, as a team, Las Vegas is 31st in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency. It’s also 20th and 30th in expected points added (EPA) on offense and defense, respectively. The starting quarterback is Jimmy Garoppolo, the league’s best-looking worst signal-caller. They’re starting 30-year-old Marcus Peters in the secondary and have no pass rush beyond Maxx Crosby. It’s a wonder Davante Adams hasn’t asked for a trade yet.
Why they won’t: I gotta be honest. I had far more trouble making a case against the Raiders having the top 2024 draft pick than every other team featured here. I had to really strain to consider any “positives.” Setting aside that the Las Vegas roster team is putrid talent and depth-wise, it arguably has the NFL’s worst head coach at the helm. McDaniels is a guy who, at this juncture, only remains a big deal based on past adjacency to Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. I have zero faith that he will guide the Raiders back to relevance after an expected 1-3 start. He’s just going to make their nosedive that much sharper.
Though, to be fair, the Raiders did already beat the Broncos on the road to start the season. Credit is where credit is due. I wouldn’t be shocked if they beat Denver in the season finale in Las Vegas to cap a 2-15 season that puts them just out of reach for Williams.
5
Minnesota Vikings
Current record: 1-3
Why they’ll have the No. 1 pick and a chance at Williams: Given the talent on the roster — how can you NOT love Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Danielle Hunter? — the Vikings winning the Williams sweepstakes could be seen as somewhat of a stretch. However, that oversells the Vikings. No one chokes away a victory quite like Minnesota. No one.
In just four games, Minnesota has already coughed up the ball 11 times. Kirk Cousins himself has thrown four picks, and all of them somehow came when the Vikings were scoring position. The old NFL cliche is that if you win the turnover battle, you will have a chance to win every game. The 2023 Vikings, one year after cruising to an NFC North division title, are a perfect example of what happens when you don’t. The offense is good, with no fundamental flaws, but the more Minnesota continues to shoot itself in the foot, the more vulnerable it leaves a susceptible defense.
Why they won’t: Even with a tough start, Minnesota possesses too much firepower on paper to languish in the NFL’s abyss. Despite his turnovers, Cousins is arguably playing the best football of his career behind a good offensive line with a gifted skill group led by Jefferson, the best receiver in the sport.
At a minimum, the Vikings should give everyone a solid fight. Heck, they basically did on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles near the start of the season. Unfortunately for anyone in Minnesota rooting for a young quarterback reboot, the Vikings have games against the Bears (twice) and Raiders remaining. That’s three wins on paper where the Vikings are clearly ahead of their inferiors, who are also vying for the top pick.
Unless Minnesota makes its trademark self-inflicting mistakes, it’ll likely be out of the running for Williams soon enough.
