No American sports league sells hope quite like the NFL. In fact, the NFL’s entire business model is constructed around telling every fanbase of a lousy team that their squad can turn its fortunes around with one productive offseason. At the center of selling that snake oil — most awful teams have been consistently horrible for decades — is the annual draft.
An important decision from presumed 2024 No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams could throw this whole plan for a loop.
In a new GQ profile, Williams and his father, Carl, discussed the uncertainty of the next phase of the USC star quarterback’s career. Because of the nature of the NFL draft, Williams won’t get the opportunity to pick where he wants to play at the next level. He will, in all likelihood, play for the NFL’s worst team. And for as gifted as the USC superstar is, Williams’ father asserted that nothing is guaranteed in the pros. Even the best quarterbacks can be ruined by terrible team situations.
As such, Williams — a player many are already labeling a generational, franchise-changing prospect — might return to USC instead of entering the 2024 draft. That’s great news for Williams and his family if they dislike the team with the top pick. That’s bad news for the NFL, which loves selling parity and hope and pawning off talents like Williams to squads (hello, Arizona Cardinals!) that would readily throw him into the football meat grinder.
“I mean, I’ve [Williams’ dad] talked to Archie Manning—his career was shot because he went to a horrible organization. I’ve talked to Lincoln [Riley], and Kyler [Murray] struggled because of where he was drafted. Baker [Mayfield] struggled mightily because of where he was drafted. The organizations matter.” And there’s a break-in-case-of-emergency option that Carl is keeping in mind. “He’s got two shots at the apple,” he says. “So if there’s not a good situation, the truth is, he can come back to school.”
Carl Williams isn’t wrong, and such a set-up wouldn’t be ideal for his son. Sure, the standard line is that Williams would elevate his teammates and make the league’s worst team better by playing for it, blah, blah, blah. Young quarterbacks need time to develop. They need patience. They need support and talent and quality coaching to reach their ceiling. And they can’t be rushed. Once you develop poor habits, it becomes that much harder to shake them later on.
It’s easy to forget now, but Patrick Mahomes sat for most of his NFL rookie season in 2017. By the time he played full-time, he was a starter at the helm of a loaded Kansas City Chiefs squad on offense with Andy Reid as his coach — perhaps the best offensive mind in the sport’s history.
If Caleb Williams were to go somewhere barren, like the Cardinals or the Las Vegas Raiders, for example, he wouldn’t get the same luxury. He’d have to do much of the heavy lifting by himself, and the intense microscope on his success or failure would remain the same. He’d mostly have to learn on the fly, and it’s no guarantee he’d reach his tantalizing potential. We might see a shell of the player we saw in college.
And Williams would be far from the first prodigy talent to fall short under these kinds of circumstances.
More from Carl Williams and GQ:
“The funky thing about the NFL draft process is, he’d almost be better off not being drafted than being drafted first. The system is completely backwards,” he says. “The way the system is constructed, you go to the worst possible situation. The worst possible team, the worst organization in the league—because of their desire for parity—gets the first pick. So it’s the gift and the curse.”
I should stress that the thoughts Williams’ dad shares aren’t original. The NFL draft has never been player-first. It is team-first, fan-first, in a way. But that doesn’t make it right that super-talents like Williams can have their careers potentially ruined before they even step onto a professional football field.
So, I understand the apprehension coming from Carl Williams. And I would get why Williams could return to USC. He’s already one of the biggest sports stars in Southern California, playing for a National Championship contender. He’s profiting well off NILs and gets to enjoy beautiful weather year-round. Why ruin that if a Division II football team masquerading as an NFL squad is what’s waiting for him in the big leagues?
The NFL should take heed of these kinds of threats. If a talent like Williams and his family don’t appreciate the draft set-up, what the college game has to offer star players could start to put a blemish on those sales of hope. There would have to be more generational talents joining Williams — if he does, indeed, return to USC — either in this draft or the future. But it’s still enough to take notice of a process that seldom gives top players a genuine chance to succeed.
Williams’ dad’s threat is a canary in the coal mine for the NFL’s flawed draft “business” model. We’ll see if the league actually pays attention.
