I’m back from the owners meetings. And you had questions for me …
From johnwinger (@johnwinger98524): According to personnel people, how do Caleb and Drake stack up compared to the last 3 years of qbs, if they were all in the same draft?
John, so I had an idea, but just to double back, I sent a few texts out to see where the two stood now, with both players’ college careers likely complete. (Pending Caleb Williams’s call on playing in USC’s bowl game, but since that bowl is the Holiday Bowl … I’d guess his next game action comes next summer in the NFL’s preseason.)
Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports (left); Jason Parkhurst/USA TODAY Sports (right)
And it turns out the consensus is even stronger than what I’d imagined it’d be.
One AFC exec said he believes Caleb Williams and Drake Maye would’ve been the first and second quarterbacks taken in 2023 and ’22, in addition to this year, and they would’ve been the second and third guys to go in ’21, behind only Trevor Lawrence. An NFC exec went a step further, texting that, based on film, he’d have Williams and Maye “definitely above them all other than Lawrence,” then said he’d go, in order, “Caleb, Trevor, Drake.” An AFC college director added he sees this year’s top two as the “best since Trevor Lawrence.”
Now, not everyone will think that way. In fact, I talked to one veteran evaluator last week who felt like LSU’s Jayden Daniels had a chance, in the coming months, to pass Maye. I’d also say Williams has a few more detractors than he did three months ago (though I call them “detractors” in very relative terms). But the bottom line here is that this is a really good year to need a quarterback, if you happen to have a high pick.
From BobC (@2004inarow): Which team would say “no” to a straight up Mac Jones for Zach Wilson swap?
Bob, it’d actually serve both parties—and I love ideas like this. Now, the Jets and Patriots could be fundamentally against the concept of trading with each other, and I’d get that (not wanting to risk helping an archrival in a potentially significant way). But on paper, both quarterbacks would get a fresh start and a chance to reset their careers in new environments with the expectations of their draft position gone.
Wilson is now on his second offensive coordinator. Jones is on his third. Both have been benched. Both have played behind porous offensive lines. Both will almost certainly have their fifth-year options declined—if either returns to their teams in 2024 and gets a shot to play, it’d be with an awfully short leash, especially given each fan base’s feelings are buoyed by very recent bad memories.
Flipping locales, on the other hand, would force the guys to earn playing time, and with people looking for potential rather than fault. Which is a different context to work under and, for both these quarterbacks, almost certainly a better one. I doubt it happens, because, again, they’re the Jets and Patriots. But it would be pretty cool to see what would happen if it did.
From ryuryu2949 (@ryuryu2949): It is clear the Jets need to rebuild their OL for next year (LT, RT, maybe one G). Who are realistic targets among free agents and likely draft picks in the 7-15 range?
Ryu, the Jets are in a potentially funky spot. If you assume they are picking in that range, then it might be just past where the presumed top two tackles go. If the draft were today, I’d guess the first three picks in some order would be Williams, Maye, and Ohio State star Marvin Harrison Jr. I’d say after that, at No. 4, two tackles are in play, and both could go quickly, one being Notre Dame’s Joe Alt and the other being Penn State’s Olumuyiwa Fashanu.
My guess is Jets GM Joe Douglas would be doing cartwheels to the phone to call either of those players, if they slipped to his pick. But my guess would also be—and, again, it’s early and there are moving parts (like the Jets’ record) here—neither quite makes it to where New York picks in April.
Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports
That would probably leave the team with someone like Georgia’s Amarius Mims in the first round, and I do think there’s a pretty decent chance his value and where the Jets are picking matches up. Nonetheless, Douglas will likely have to add something in free agency before then to provide some insurance against the draft going the other way on him. Bengals free agent Jonah Williams could be a really nice fit to come in and play either right or left tackle for the Jets, giving the team some flexibility in April.
From Justin Mason (@Masonjt24): Do you think Adam Peters could replace Scott [Fitterer] in Carolina at season end?
Justin, it’s hard, at this point, to envision very many people surviving in Carolina after how this season has gone. I think Fitterer is a solid general manager, and he’s been on the job for only three years, which is a short period over which to evaluate someone in his spot.
That said, there was a little tell in how owner David Tepper handled the firing of Frank Reich that can give a little insight into where he might take his franchise next. Tepper could’ve used the opportunity to audition Thomas Brown or Ejiro Evero for the job. Instead, he turned to special teams coordinator Chris Tabor. Part of that is it’s what’s least disruptive to the staff in-season. But another could be that it made what happened last year less likely.
And that’s not to say Tepper didn’t want his team to catch fire like it did under Steve Wilks last year. Instead, it could mean Tepper was looking ahead toward blowing things up and didn’t want to be under pressure, again, to elevate an interim coach to full-time status. If he then had his eye on starting over with the coaching staff, it stands to reason Tepper may well want to turn the page in a more complete way on his football operation.
If he does that, yes, Peters would be a good candidate, as someone who has interviewed there before and has experience going to Super Bowls with the Patriots, Broncos and 49ers through his two-decade career as a personnel man.
From lanchester royal (@LanchesterRoyal): Woody gonna keep everything the same next year will there be any sacrifice? Woody wants a new stadium???
Lanchester, I don’t know about a new stadium—Woody Johnson and the Giants split the cost of MetLife Stadium, at a cool $800 million apiece, so it’s hard to imagine he’d be looking at bailing from that 14 years in (though the idea of the Jets eventually having their own stadium, and being in the city, is something that’s interested him in the past).
As for next year, my guess would be that as long as the Jets have Rodgers on board for 2024, the changes in the organization would be minimal. Joe Douglas’s win-loss record as GM is not good, but the roster itself is young and solid. The defense has been fantastic with Jeff Ulbrich at the controls. Robert Saleh’s done an admirable job navigating the bleepstorms of this year. And Rodgers loves and trusts OC Nathaniel Hackett.
Again, I’m not sure—if the priority is trying to do next year what you couldn’t do postinjury this year—where the changes are supposed to come.
From Andy Massey (@AndyMassey14): Who does Carolina ultimately land as HC in your opinion?
Andy, if you want my guess, it’s that Tepper makes a run at Lions OC and North Carolina native Ben Johnson, and Johnson winds up turning him down to go somewhere else—which is the cost of the widespread perception of Tepper as an owner.
After that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers at least explore the idea of Jim Harbaugh, who reached out to Carolina during last year’s hiring cycle. And after that, I think it’d be pretty wide open, with the one priority being developing Bryce Young (which either Johnson or Harbaugh could do) … which would at least make you think Tepper would lean to the offensive side of the candidate pool.
From Larry Olson (@Husky1987): Is Pete Carroll coaching the Seahawks in 2024?
Larry, I’d say I’m less sure of it than I have been in recent years. Going into this year, it sure looked like the Seahawks were creeping closer toward having the kind of core group of players they did in Carroll’s early years, with a very solid 2022 draft class coming back and the ’23 class bursting with promise.
Cary Edmondson/USA TODAY Sports
Now they’re 6–7 heading into a matchup against the NFC champion Eagles, who are coming off consecutive losses. So while Seattle remains loaded with young talent, it’s fair to ask how far away they might be from a championship and where they stand at quarterback after this year. Because, while coming into this year I thought that infusion of young talent might keep Carroll around for a while, if the coach doesn’t think he’s that close, it could alter his decision on returning for next season (during which he’ll turn 73).
And the idea that Seattle would try to get Cowboys DC Dan Quinn (who was Seattle’s DC for its two Super Bowl trips a decade ago) if Carroll were to retire has been floated around a little. Which … the Seahawks could do a lot worse than that, if this were to be it.
From Allen Schepens (@Scheps14): Is everyone overreacting to the Cowboys win? They got shredded by Seattle a week ago.
Well, first of all, Allen, the Cowboys won the Seattle game. They also are getting a career year out of Dak Prescott, who’s a legit MVP candidate and seems to have taken a significant step forward as a playmaker at 30 years old. The Cowboys are tough in the trenches, too. They’ve absorbed the loss of Trevon Diggs, with Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland playing at a high level. CeeDee Lamb has come into his own. This is a pretty complete team.
Now, the flip side is this: Sunday’s win over the Eagles is Dallas’s only win, as of right now, over a team with a winning record. And the Cowboys have flashed early in the year before. So I also get that people are looking for the banana in a tailpipe.
But as of right now, I think they’re one of four teams in the NFC with a shot to get to Las Vegas in February (the Niners, Eagles and Lions, in my opinion, are the other three). And if the Cowboys get to their first NFC title game in 28 years, which would probably mean having to beat one of the other three in the divisional round, I’d say that’s a good step forward for the franchise. It’s also pretty doable.
From Nick Fer1 (@NickFer1): Any rumors on Raiders coaching candidates?
The one thing I’d heard a little earlier in the fall was that Colts assistant GM Ed Dodds had made an impression on owner Mark Davis. Dodds, for what it’s worth, has a relationship with Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh—the two worked together in Oakland, when Harbaugh was getting started as a coach and Dodds was a young scout. Davis, of course, tried to hire Harbaugh in 2015, when Harbaugh jumped from the Niners to his alma mater.
That said, one thing Davis has maintained is he plans to conduct a wide-open search, something he reiterated in an interview with The Athletic’s Tashan Reed this week. For what it’s worth, Davis also told Reed he’s leaning toward hiring the GM first, then the coach—though he wouldn’t commit to an organizational structure yet.
From MB (@MB_5280): Who is quarterbacking the Denver Broncos in 2024?
MB, I still believe it’s going to be tough for the Broncos to go back to Russell Wilson again, based on the financial implications ahead. And really, you want to look at how his contract is set up going forward as having a series of buyouts. So here’s what you’re looking at …
• If the Broncos cut bait after this year, they’ll be responsible for $39 million that’s already fully guaranteed for 2024.
• If they move on after 2024, they’ll be responsible for Wilson’s $37 million base salary for ’25, which becomes fully guaranteed this March.
• If Denver moves on after 2025, in all likelihood, it will be able to do it without cost—there are some injury guarantees for ’26, but nothing more.
So that means the Broncos either pay $39 million to exit stage left in February or March, or go in on two years of Wilson at a price of $76 million for 2024 and ’25. Wilson will be 37 by the end of the ’25 season, so my guess right now would be they’ll move on this offseason and start working toward finding a long-term answer for Sean Payton. But as Denver has started, and continued, winning, I’ve become a lot less certain of it.
From BrandonRynelancer (@rynelancer): Do the Bears move on from JF if they have pick #1? Have you seen enough for the eye test or need final games?
This, Brandon, is another Door No. 1 vs. Door No. 2 scenario. Here are those for the Bears …
Door No. 1: Keep Justin Fields—knowing that if it works out, he’ll get a lot more expensive in 2025, whether that’s on the fifth-year option or not—and score a haul for the first pick. In that case, you build around Fields with an already promising cast of young vets and a bevy of rookies coming on to the team over the next two or three years.
Door No. 2: Take Williams, and trade Fields. Chances are you won’t be able to get much more than a Day 2 pick for Fields at this point, especially since he’s headed into the final year of his rookie contract (with the pricey option for 2025). But in this scenario, you get four years of Williams on a rookie deal, meaning the same way you could load the team around Fields with rookie talent, you could use the extra cap space to be aggressive in getting veteran talent to put around Williams.
Of course, this is going to come down to how you see Fields and how you see Williams. And I don’t think the Bears are quite there on that part of it. But even past just picking between the players, it’s really two completely separate tracks.
Brad, honestly, I think it’s a great reporter doing his job. Nothing more than that.
