Closing summary
We’re closing down this live blog now. Thanks for reading and commenting. Here’s a summary of the day’s main events:
The Conservatives lost two out of the three safe seats where byelections were being held. Labour wiped out a huge deficit from 2019 to take Selby and Ainsty, while the Liberal Democrats did similar in Somerton and Frome. The Tories managed to hold on to Boris Johnson’s former Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat, though.
Keir Starmer congratulated his new MP Keir Mather, who will become the Baby of the House. Referring to the Tory MP Johny Mercer, he told Mather: “There was some silly sod on the radio, on the television last night saying you were only 25. But the answer is: You’re 25 and you’ve made history and he’s whatever age he is and he’ll soon be history.
The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, was urged to think carefully about pursuing the extension of London’s ultra-low emission zone. Local indications suggested the unpopularity of the move drove voters away from Labour in Uxbridge.
But Khan offered a staunch defence of the policy. He said: “The decision to expand the ultra-low emissions zone was a tough one, but it’s the right one. Why? Because every year across our city, roughly speaking, 4,000 people died prematurely.”
The elections expert Prof Sir John Curtice said the Tories “should not take too much comfort” from the victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. He said the Conservative candidate himself Steve Tuckwell said his victory was all down to the Ulez issue. Tuckwell did not interpret the result as an endorsment of Rishi Sunak, and his five priorities, Curtice said.
The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, claimed the Uxbridge result showed the next general election was not a done deal. He said: “Westminster’s been acting like the next election is a done deal. The Labour party has been acting like it’s a done deal. The people of Uxbridge just told all of them that it’s not.”
The Lib Dem leader, Ed Davey, used the platform his party’s victory provided to urge Sunak to call a general election now. While there is almost no chance of the prime minister taking his advice, Davey did take the opportunity to say: “The people of Somerton and Frome have spoken for the country and sent a message to this appalling Conservative government.
Messages from the former prime minister Boris Johnson’s old phone were retrieved and will be given to the Covid inquiry, his spokesman said. Technical experts recovered all relevant messages, and he will hand them over “unredacted”.
Updated
Johnny Mercer will 'soon be history', Keir Starmer says, after Tory minister compared new Labour MP with character from Inbetweeners
Keir Starmer has labelled the government minister Johnny Mercer a “silly sod” who will “soon be history”, after he compared the party’s new 25-year-old MP to a character from cult Channel 4 comedy The Inbetweeners.
The minister for veterans’ affairs said Keir Mather had been “dropped into” the Selby and Ainsty constituency and “spouted identikit Keir Starmer lines”, having earlier said:
We don’t want parliament to become like The Inbetweeners.
The Labour leader hit back at Mercer in Selby on Friday, as he celebrated the byelection victory alongside Mather and his deputy leader Angela Rayner. Walking along the pitch at Selby Town FC and surrounded by media, Starmer told the new MP:
There was some silly sod on the radio, on the television last night saying you were only 25. But the answer is: You’re 25 and you’ve made history and he’s whatever age he is and he’ll soon be history.
Mather will become the youngest MP in the Commons – the Baby of the House – after overturning a 20,137 Conservative majority to win the North Yorkshire seat for Labour.
The Inbetweeners, which aired in the late 2000s, follows four adolescent friends at school who end up in awkward and embarrassing situations. Explaining his comments to Sky News on Friday, Mercer said:
I think this synthetic outrage, identikit Labour politician is the opposite of what people like me came into politics for.
He’s been at Oxford University more than he’s had a job, right? So if you can really apply that to the empathy required to understand what it’s really like in this country at the moment, in terms of the cost of living and all these experiences of these people he’s trying to represent.
Personally, I don’t think that is conducive to good electoral representation and I’m more than entitled to have that view.
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The Home Office has denied its barge housing asylum seekers is a “floating prison” and said the people on board would be “free to come and go as they want”, the PA news agency reports.
Gardening in nearby allotments and hiking tours of the area were among the activities which could be offered to about 500 migrants set to board the giant vessel berthed on the most southerly point of Dorset’s Jurassic coast.
Officials were keen to stress efforts the department had made to allay the concerns of people in Portland – a small island with a population of about 13,600 people – as they led a press tour of the vessel on Friday. The deputy director for asylum accommodation, Leanne Palk, disputed claims made by campaigners about the facilities.
It isn’t a floating prison. People are free to come and go as they want, but we do have this secure fenceline in place just so that people don’t wander around the port. It is a working port and we need to keep the safety of the asylum seekers on board the vessel at the heart of everything we do.
Palk said it was unlikely asylum seekers would leave the barge and never return, adding: “They’ve got a vested interest in having their asylum claim processed.”
Updated
The former prime minister’s spokesman said:
Boris Johnson is pleased that technical experts have now successfully recovered all relevant messages from the device. As repeatedly stated, he will now deliver this material in unredacted form to the inquiry.
The inquiry process requires that a security check of this material is now made by the Cabinet Office. The timing of any further progress on delivery to the inquiry is therefore under the Cabinet Office’s control.
It was always the case that Boris Johnson would pass this material to the inquiry and do everything possible to help it be recovered. A careful process approved by the inquiry has been followed to ensure that this was successful.
Boris Johnson to hand over 'unredacted' messages to Covid inquiry
Technical experts have recovered all relevant messages from Boris Johnson’s old phone that he had been advised not to use on security grounds, and he will hand them over “unredacted” to the coronavirus inquiry, a spokesman for the former prime minister has said.
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Craig Mackinlay, the chair of the Conservative net zero scutiny group, has told the Daily Telegraph that, in the light of the Uxbridge byelection result, the government should abandon the plan to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030. He said:
We need to get the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars overturned at least until 2035, which is where most of the developed world is going. It is pre madness to saddle ourselves with this deadline.
Mackinlay, like the other Conservatives who have today been calling for government green measures to be delayed or abandoned (see 8.46am, 10.17am and 10.35am), was never very keen on them anyway.
But, with Keir Starmer signalling that he also favours a review of how the Ulez extension is being implemented (see 2.21pm), it is likely that people in No 10 are thinking about the electoral politics of this too.
That is all from me for today. My colleague Kevin Rawlinson is taking over now.
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Here are two takes on the byelection results from Conservative-leaning commentators, published by the leftwing New Statesman and the rightwing ConservativeHome. For Tories, the ConHome article is more negative.
David Gauke, the former Tory cabinet minister, says in the New Statesman that Tory MPs will be alarmed by these results.
The Conservatives are under attack from all directions and very few of their MPs can be entirely confident their seats are safe. Morale is low and activists are demotivated; a desperate party may be susceptible to bad ideas to recover its position. But the Uxbridge result does provide some comfort. Ulez is a local issue, applicable to a relatively small number of seats, but the impact this matter had was greater than one would expect if there was genuine enthusiasm for Labour. This provides a small glimmer of hope for the Tories, which is more than many of them were expecting yesterday.
And Paul Goodman, the ConservativeHome editor, says on his website that Rishi Sunak is doomed if he does not change course.
There is a danger this morning that Team Sunak will breathe a sigh of relief and carry on with business as usual – so running into the autumn’s party conference with the five pledges and little else.
There will be a temptation to delay cabinet changes, which may be fine; but there will also be one to minimise them when they come, which wouldn’t be.
As matters stand, the prime minister is on course to be ejected from Downing Street. To date, he hasn’t set out a view of the challenges facing Britain and how his government plans to tackle them.
Instead, he has stuck to the five priorities. That plan may well have made sense when he first entered Number Ten. But it is running out of steam. A narrow win in Uxbridge doesn’t change the bleakness of this position – though it’s certainly a reminder that Labour has weaknesses that can be identified and punished.
During the mid-Thatcher period, her ministers divided into “consolidators” and “radicals”. Sunak and his team have no choice but to be radical. After all, there’s nothing much in his present position to consolidate.
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About 20% of people reading the blog today are from outside the UK. Here is a question from one of them, which I’ll answer here for the sake of non-British readers.
I am writing from outside the UK. Following your coverage of the byelections I noticed that in the background of the two men who won against the Tories, there are strange things going on. There’s someone with a metal bucket over his head, a woman with what looks like one of those talking dolls and a man with a huge label “Loony Party”. As someone from Switzerland, I cannot quite understand if they wanted to place an ironic protest or if they actually participated in the elections? Maybe you could elaborate.
I’m afraid it’s not a protest. These are actual candidates, which is why they are allowed on stage when the result is declared.
In the UK it does not cost much to stand as a candidate in a byelection (you need to put down a deposit of £500, which is returned if you get more than 5% of the vote) and in the UK there is a long tradition of oddballs and eccentrics standing as candidates. They seem to enjoy the attention. They are following in the tradition of the late Screaming Lord Sutch, who always stood in byelections for the Monster Raving Loony party. He could be genuinely funny, and did satirise the political process effectively.
There were 17 candidates in the Uxbridge byelection, a near record. (See 6.17am.) Some of them were making a protest about the extension of the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez), but several were definitely at the less serious end of the market.
Obviously, I can assure foreign readers that here in the UK the cranks and weirdos never actually get elected to parliament …
Updated
Chris Skidmore, the Conservative MP who led a review of net zero policies for the government, has urged politicians to be honest about the need for policies like the Ulez extension.
Accepting that the Uxbridge byelection became a referendum on Ulez, he said:
The reality is that Ulez was a Conservative policy, introduced by Boris Johnson as mayor and recently agreed by this government to be expanded in May 2020, as part of Covid loans to the mayor. It helps no one in politics if we are not honest about the reality of pollution in our cities and the health consequences of this, but we also need to be honest about what investments are needed to deliver policies with public support.
This is what the net zero review very clearly set out: we need long-term investment to encourage private sector investment and to create a just transition by establishing the effective incentives to decarbonise.
Updated
Starmer urges Khan to 'reflect' on Ulez implementation, saying it was reason for Labour losing in Uxbridge
Keir Starmer has also urged Sadiq Khan to “reflect” on the implementation of the Ulez extension. Referring to the result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, he told broadcasters:
We didn’t take it in 1997 when we had a landslide Labour victory. And Ulez was the reason we didn’t win there yesterday.
We know that. We heard that on the doors. And we’ve all got to reflect on that, including the mayor.
Asked what “reflect” meant and whether the scheme should now be scrapped, Starmer replied:
We’ve got to look at the result. The mayor needs to reflect. And it’s too early to say what should happen next.
Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images
Updated
Here is a question from a reader about tactical voting, and electoral reform.
Looking at the effects of tactical voting, will Keir Starmer rethink his attitude to first past the post? The tactical votes have essentially shown what transferable votes, or the like, would achieve.
I imagine there will be considerable pressure on a Labour government to enact electoral reform, especially if the Lib Dems and Greens break through more widely.
Almost certainly, no.
The results do show a remarkable level of anti-Tory tactical voting by Labour and Lib Dem supporters.
And it is true that Starmer is under pressure to agree to electoral reform. His party conference voted in favour of it.
But Starmer, and a lot of Labour traditionalists on this issue, would argue that these results just show that Labour can attract votes from the wider progressive electorate without having to offer PR.
Labour is not opposed to tactical voting. MPs won’t endorse it publicly, not least because they can be thrown out of the party for encouraging people to vote for someone else. But Labour kept its campaigning to a minimum in Somerton and Frome, in effect giving the Lib Dems a free run, and it would be surprising if the two parties don’t operate informal non-aggression pacts like this in dozens of seats at the general election.
Updated
Shadow attorney general Emily Thornberry urges Khan to review how Ulez extension being implemented
Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, should review the way he is implementing the Ulez extension, Emily Thornberry, the shadow attorney general, has said.
Khan has vigorously defended the policy this morning (see 1.12pm), and played down suggestions it was to blame for Labour not winning the Uxbridge and South Ruislip byelection (see 12.35pm).
But Thornberry suggested the implementation of the policy was a problem. In an interview with the World at One she said:
I think it’s the right policy – I suspect it’s the way it’s being done [that is problematic]. And I hope that Sadiq will look at it again, I know that we’re asking him to.
Thornberry also said that the government had given cities like Birmingham, Bristol and Bradford money to help fund scrappage schemes as part of low-emission policies, but that London had not received this help. She urged central government to work with the London mayor to ensure that air quality could be improved.
Including the byelections last night, there have been nine byelections in Conservative-held seats this parliament, not eight, as an earlier post said. (See 9.45am.) The Tories have held three of them, and lost the other six.
Khan defends Ulez, saying clean air 'human right, not privilege', and extension plan 'issue of social justice and racial justice'
Here is more from what Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London, said today defending the extension of Ulez. (See 12.35pm.) The policy almost certainly stopped Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip in the byelection, and there is some evidence that the result could prompt a wider rethink about the electoral wisdom of green policies that impose costs on voters.
But Khan was unreprentant. He told BBC News:
The decision to expand the ultra-low emissions zone was a tough one, but it’s the right one. Why? Because every year across our city, roughly speaking, 4,000 people died prematurely. There are children with stunted lungs forever, adults with a whole host of health issues, from asthma to cancer, dementia to heart disease. So we do want to clean up the air in London. I think it’s a human right, not a privilege. Nobody puts up with dirty water. Why dirty air?
We’re going to carry on listening, we’re going to carry on monitoring the policy, monitoring take-up. One of the reasons why I’ve announced a massive £110m scrappage scheme is to support those Londoners to make the transition. We’ve widened the eligibility to even more Londoners.
Asked if Ulez would cost Labour votes in the mayoral election next year, or in the general election, Khan replied:
I’m hoping Ulez is expanded by the end of August. We saw in 2021 this was a big issue for the Conservative candidate … We’re listening to Londoners. Londoners are struggling through this cost of living crisis.
But Londoners are suffering the consequences of air pollution. I’m quite clear; it’s the poorest Londoners who are least likely to own a car, [and to] suffer the worst consequences [of air pollution] – that can’t be right. It’s black Londoners least likely to own a car who suffer the worst consequences – that can’t be right. This is an issue of social justice and racial justice.
But I recognise there are some Londoners worried about Ulez. That’s why we’ve widened the eligibility and provided record support for Londoners. It’s a shame that the government hasn’t given us a penny of support towards the scrappage scheme.
This afternoon Labour’s national policy forum will meet in the east Midlands. The conference will run until Sunday and, although the NPF does not write the party’s manifesto, it does establish a policy framework for the document. As Ben Quinn reports, the leadership faces a challenge from the left on a series of issues.
Alan Wager, a politics academic, argues that the Uxbridge result could make it easier for those in the party wanting to push back against more radical policy options.
Like it or not, ULEZ will be seen as a parable of how radical policy popular with the left could completely derail Labour in an election campaign. Very useful for Starmer ahead of the National Policy Forum this weekend.
— Alan Wager (@DrAlanWager) July 21, 2023
Updated
At one point there was speculation that we might get a government reshuffle today. But No 10 is now ruling that out, Pippa Crerar reports.
No govt reshuffle today. Good news for those in need of some sleep after pulling a by-election all-nighter.
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) July 21, 2023
Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London, has defended his decision to extend Ulez (the ultra-low emission zone) to outer London. This will lead to drivers with polluting cars having to pay £12.50 a day to drive them in places like Uxbridge, and campaigning against the move was almost certainly the factor that enabled the Tories to hold the seat.
Khan justified the Ulez extension, saying he was “determined to clear the air” in London. He said:
Of course I am disappointed that this seat, which has never been Labour in my lifetime, didn’t go Labour last night.
Obviously I welcome the 7% swing to Labour in this outer London seat and we are determined to clear the air in London.
Updated
Keir Starmer is now taking questions from journalists.
He says Labour has never overturned a majority of this size. The party must show that it will deliver.
Q: What are you priorities for this constituency?
To show that everyone can get on, to ensure that public services are working, and to give a sense that the country is moving forward, says Starmer.
Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader, delivers a short speech. She says she is in a “sandwich of Keirs”; she has Keir Starmer standing next to her on one side, and Keir Mather, the new MP, standing on the other side.
And Mather says that being the new MP is the privilege of his life, and that he can’t wait to get started.
Updated
Starmer thanks those who have put their trust in Labour. He says the byelection result is a vindication of the way the Labour party has changed. He says:
The priorities of working people are our priorities. And that’s why people are prepared to put their trust in the Labour party. They want a party in government focused on their priorities of jobs, of health, of public services and opportunities for everyone, wherever they are.
By changing our party, listening to voters, we’ve shown what a changed Labour party could do.
He also says the byelection only happened in the first place because of “the chaos, the division, the infighting in the Tory party”.
Updated
Keir Starmer has now arrived at a Labour rally in Selby, where he is giving a speech to activists.
He says this is the first time Labour has overturned a majority of 20,000.
And, because he does not believe in complacency, he says it is the first time he can say: “Well done, Keir.”
The successful candidate in Selby and Ainsty, and its next MP, is Keir Mather.
Updated
Keir Starmer has arrived in Selby, with his deputy, Angela Rayner:
Updated
Boris Johnson has put a message on Twitter saying the Uxbridge result shows the Tories can win all over the country.
Fantastic news from Uxbridge. Well done @tuckwell_steve and the amazing Conservative council and association members. This shows the Conservatives can win in London and around the country.
Fantastic news from Uxbridge. Well done @tuckwell_steve and the amazing Conservative council and association members. This shows the Conservatives can win in London and around the country.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) July 21, 2023
Johnson was the previous MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip and the byelection only happened because he resigned when he learned that the Commons privileges committee was going to recommend a suspension that could have led to a recall byelection.
Today’s result could be seen as implying that, if Johnson had held on and fought a recall byelection, he would have won.
But there is no guarantee of that. The Conservatives won the byelection because they successfully turned it into a referendum on Ulez. If Johnson had been the candidate, that would have been impossible, because the byelection would almost certainly have been a referendum about him, and about his lying over Partygate (the subject of the privileges committee inquiry).
Updated
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey calls for general election now, saying it is time to 'get these clowns out of No 10'
Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, is in Frome, celebrating his party’s victory in the Somerton and Frome byelection. The Liberal Democrats (for reasons best known to themselves) adore cheesy, photocall stunts, and this morning Davey fired a mock circus cannon to illustrate his message about it being time to “get these clowns out of No 10”.
Davey also urged Rishi Sunak to call a general election now – which, of course, he won’t.
Davey said:
The people of Somerton and Frome have spoken for the country and sent a message to this appalling Conservative government.
People are struggling to get a GP appointment or find a dentist for their kids. They are working hard and making big sacrifices just to make ends meet, and yet the Conservatives are so out of touch they don’t even seem to notice.
That’s why lifelong Conservative voters have turned to the Liberal Democrats in their thousands, and why longtime Labour voters have lent us their support to get the Conservatives out.
Ringmaster Rishi is out of touch, out of ideas and out of excuses. It’s time for a general election to end this Conservative circus and get these clowns out of No 10.
Updated
And here are some of the most interesting comments on the byelection results from commentators on Twitter.
From James Johnson, a pollster who used to work for Theresa May
Here's how 🇬🇧 by-election swings in government-defended seats look since 1997, updated with Thursday's results.
— James Johnson (@jamesjohnson252) July 21, 2023
The #UxbridgeAndSouthRuislip swing against the Tories was historically small. But #SelbyandAinsty was a huge Labour swing (almost 2x the size of Wakefield last year). pic.twitter.com/6825h4JGdz
From Sam Freedman, a Prospect columnist
Extraordinary win for Labour in Selby. First time they have ever overturned a 20k Tory majority in any election I think.
— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) July 21, 2023
One thing that would worry me a lot if I were a Tory strategist - the Lab/Lib tactical voting was close to perfect in every seat (even Uxbridge). That's an extra 40 seats lost in a GE.
— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) July 21, 2023
Three of the six biggest ever majorities overturned in by elections have now come in the last two years. Lots of Tories in "safe" seats wil be extremely edgy.
— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) July 21, 2023
From Robert Colvile, head of the Centre for Policy Studies thinktank
The most important statistics in these by-elections: 2.6%, 3.3% & 1.7%. Vote share for Labour and Lib Dems in seats they didn’t win. Appreciate it’s a by-election but tactical voting on even a fraction of that scale would be very bad news for Tories.
— Robert Colvile (@rcolvile) July 21, 2023
From Ben Walker from Britain Elects and the New Statesman
To repeat - Selby and Ainsty: largest numerical majority overturned by Labour in post-war history
— Ben Walker (@BNHWalker) July 21, 2023
The Green vote (10%) in Somerton and Frome is astounding stuff. Impression most of it came from the Cons, not Lab - a lot of their west country wins in council elections came in Con-trending towns.
— Ben Walker (@BNHWalker) July 21, 2023
From the academic Will Jennings
Not sure we learned much at all from last night’s by-elections. They confirmed that the government is deeply unpopular but has a very narrow path to denying Labour election victory. As you were…
— Will Jennings 🗳️ (@drjennings) July 21, 2023
From Keiran Pedley from the polling firm Ipsos
There will be a temptation to say ‘something for everyone’ this morning. Whilst a truism of sorts I think it’s a misreading. Bucking national trend over ULEZ won’t matter in a general if Lab / Lib pincher wipes Tories out in south-west, midlands and north (& Scotland / Wales)…
— Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) July 21, 2023
From David Boothroyd, a Labour councillor and political historian
Two previous occasions (1972 and 1997) saw a byelection in Uxbridge in which Labour was thought likely to romp home easily, only for the Conservatives to hold on. In both cases Labour won the next general election anyway. Just putting this marker down
— David Boothroyd (@220_d_92_20) July 20, 2023
From Luke Tryl, head of More in Common UK, which campaigns for inclusivity
Short take - Uxbridge gives the Conservatives a short term sigh of relief and an expectations game win. But the scale of that Selby result means you'd far rather by Keir Starmer than Rishi Sunak right now, and the electoral playing field could well be quite a big one.
— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) July 21, 2023
The question for me is whether Uxbridge is a totally unique case of ULEZ and demographics - or is it indicative that a disciplined and wedge focused Conservative campaign can erode a soft/unenthusiastic Labour lead?
— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) July 21, 2023
The elections expert Lewis Baston has written a good analysis of the results for the Guardian. He says the Conservatives should not take too much comfort from what happened in Uxbridge. He says:
The Conservatives will find it hard to replicate the anti-incumbent technique outside London or Wales, and there are only a handful of other constituencies that resemble Uxbridge electorally or demographically (and the Uxbridge swing is big enough to take out some of them).
The problem the Tories have is that there are large numbers of constituencies that are a bit like Selby and Ainsty or Somerton and Frome. Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire is a mixture of small towns, commuter villages and some countryside, neither poor nor affluent. It has elements of “red wall” and “middle England” and a big swing here has wide implications. The Uxbridge result might caution us against expecting too many Labour advances into new territory in 2024, but Selby and Ainsty suggests Labour is on course to rebuild the electoral coalition that previously brought it victory. Somerton and Frome was part of a swathe of rural and small-town former Lib Dem seats in the south-west that seemed like extinct volcanoes after the coalition government and Brexit. If these seats are in flux, the Conservatives face a daunting task if they are to retain an overall majority …
The swings since 2019 look as if they are all over the place – 29% to the Lib Dems in Somerton and Frome, 24% to Labour in Selby and Ainsty, and only 7% to Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
But from a longer perspective it looks a lot clearer. It is less dangerous to prognosticate on the basis of three byelections in very different types of seat than it is for a single byelection. In 1997 the Lib Dems gained Somerton and Frome by 130 votes – in 2023 they gained it by 11,008. In 1997 Labour gained the Selby constituency by 3,836 – in 2023, on less favourable boundaries, Labour gained by 4,161. And in 1997 the Conservatives held Uxbridge by 724 votes; in 2023 they held a somewhat more Tory version of the seat by 495 votes. These results, allowing for the Lib Dems’ winning ways in byelections, show the level and distribution of the parties’ support is a bit worse for the Conservatives than it was in 1997. The Brexit realignment? Left on economics, right on culture?
Gone like tears in rain.
The full article is here.
David Frost, the former Brexit minister, is also urging Rishi Sunak to scale back net zero policies. He tweeted:
The lesson is surely that green policies are very unpopular when there’s a direct cost to people - as indeed all the polling says.
This time that hit Labour. But soon it could be us unless we rethink heat pumps & the 2030 electric car deadline.
The lesson is surely that green policies are very unpopular when there's a direct cost to people - as indeed all the polling says.
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) July 21, 2023
This time that hit Labour. But soon it could be us unless we rethink heat pumps & the 2030 electric car deadline.
Conclusion: any autumn relaunch has to offer Conservative policies that bring back people who voted for us in 2019: tax, immigration, net zero, and more.
There is a route to victory - but it means a rethink.
Conclusion: any autumn relaunch has to offer Conservative policies that bring back people who voted for us in 2019: tax, immigration, net zero, and more.https://t.co/Dwwq9uHlX1
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) July 21, 2023
There is a route to victory - but it means a rethink.
Updated
The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, and his deputy, Angela Rayner, are on their way to Selby:
Updated
Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader, told Times Radio she was “cautiously optimistic” about her party’s chances at the general election in the light of the byelection results. She said:
If you look at where we were in 2019 as a political party after that general election, and if you’d have said today I’d be talking to you about a win in Selby in a byelection and overturning a 20,000 majority for the Conservatives, you’d have laughed me out of the studio.
Rishi Sunak met Susan Hall, the new Tory candidate for London mayor, in Uxbridge this morning. On Wednesday his press secretary admitted that, on various issues, he did not fully agree with her views.
Updated
John Redwood calls for government rethink on green policies in light of Uxbridge result
Like Jacob Rees-Mogg (see 8.46am), the Conservative MP John Redwood is also saying the Uxbridge result should lead to a government rethink on green policies.
After winning Uxbridge by speaking out against ULEZ will the government now act to stop so many attacks on motorists?
— John Redwood (@johnredwood) July 21, 2023
Tory chair refuses to back minister who suggested Keir Mather, 25, too young to be MP for Selby
Keir Mather, who won Selby and Ainsty for Labour, is 25. He will be the youngest MP when he takes his seat, having previously been a researcher for Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary.
In an interview with Sky News overnight, Johnny Mercer, the veterans minister, implied that he was too young to be an MP. Asked if an injection of youth would be good for parliament, Mercer replied:
I think it’s always good to get new people in politics, but I think we mustn’t become a repeat of The Inbetweeners.
Asked to explain what he meant, Mercer said:
You’ve got to have people who have actually done stuff. This guy has been at Oxford University more than he’s been in a job.
You put a chip in him there and he just relays Labour lines, and the problem is people have kind of had enough of that.
They want people who are authentic. People who have worked in that constituency, who know what life is like, understand what life is like to live, work and raise a family in communities like theirs.
Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader, said Mercer’s comments showed the “contempt” that the Tories had, not just for Mather, but for the people who voted for him too.
Greg Hands, the Conservative chair, refused to endorse what his colleague said. Asked if he thought Mercer’s comment was appropriate, he told LBC: “I welcome young people coming into politics. We’ve got young Conservative MPs ourselves, young MPs in their 20s.”
Updated
Sunak says byelection results show need to 'double down' on delivering on people's priorities
Speaking to Tories in Uxbridge, Rishi Sunak said the byelection results showed the need for him to “double down” on delivering on people’s priorities (his five pledges).
He also claimed it was normal for the governing party to lose seats in byelections. He said:
Byelections, midterms for an incumbent government, are always difficult. They rarely win them.
The message I take away is that we’ve got to double down, stick to our plan and deliver for people. That’s what I heard when I was out on the doorsteps and that’s what we’re going to do.
This is not quite true. Including the three contests yesterday, there have been nine byelections in what were Conservative-held seats this parliament. The Tories have lost six of them, but won three.
UPDATE: The final paragraph has been corrected because it originally said eight byelection in Tory-held seats, not nine.
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Analysis: what the results mean for the Tories
Here is my colleague Kiran Stacey’s analysis of what the results means.
And here is an extract.
Conservatives portrayed the results as a sign that Labour’s huge national poll lead is vulnerable, especially when the Tories find the right issues to campaign on, as they did in Uxbridge with Labour’s plan to extend London’s Ultra-low emission zone.
However, pollsters say the dramatic swings against Sunak’s party in Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome show the national mood has turned against them, and may not return in time for next year’s general election.
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Greens say coming third in all three byelections show they offer 'clear alternative'
The Green party came third in all three byelections last night, with 10% of the vote in Somerton (where Labour lost its deposit), 5% in Selby (where the Lib Dems lost their deposit) and 3% in Uxbridge. Adrian Ramsay, the Green co-leader, said his party was the only one to increase its vote share in all three contests. He said:
Greens came a credible third in each seat. We were the only party to increase our vote share in all three contests. That’s because we offered a clear alternative, though we were squeezed in the particular circumstances of these byelections.
These were three Conservative seats with very significant majorities. A competent government that was providing solutions to the real, deep-seated crises facing our country would have held all three of them.
The fact that they lost two of them underscores just how tired and fed up voters are with them. They have let the country down over the cost of living, over the climate emergency and over standards in public life. Now they are paying the price.
Labour will make the best of the Selby result, but the truth is that a government in waiting - which is what Labour believe themselves to be - would have done even better against a Conservative party that has been the most chaotic and damaging in modern history, crashed the economy and repeatedly failed the environment.
Sunder Katwala, from the British Future thinktank, points out on Twitter that the Greens did better than all the various rightwing, populist candidates. Reform UK’s best result was in Selby and Ainsty, where it got almost 4%.
None of the populist right candidates/parties could beat the Greens anywhere. Greens were third in all three seats with got 10% in Somerton, 5% in Selby and 3% in Uxbridge, where local opposition to Ulez expansion in outer London highlights a theme of the London May 2024 election pic.twitter.com/dxXi5vlaxI
— Sunder Katwala (@sundersays) July 21, 2023
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Sunak says Tory victory in Uxbridge shows next general election result not 'a done deal'
BBC News is showing footage of Rishi Sunak speaking to reporters in Uxbridge.
He said the Uxbridge result showed that the next general election was not a done deal. He said:
Westminster’s been acting like the next election is a done deal. The Labour Party has been acting like it’s a done deal. The people of Uxbridge just told all of them that it’s not.
No one expected us to win here. But Steve [Tuckwell’s] victory demonstrates that, when confronted with the actual reality of the Labour party, when there’s an actual choice on a matter of substance at stake, people vote Conservative.
Labour supporters may fear that Sunak has a point, but it is worth remembering that Labour has not won a parliamentary election in Uxbridge since 1966. Even in the Blair years, it was Tory. There was a byelection there soon after Tony Blair became prime minister in 1997, but even with New Labour at its most popular, the Conservatives won. Keir Starmer has been accused of following the Blair playbook closely. You could argue that losing byelections in Uxbridge is part of that.
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Jacob Rees-Mogg says Uxbridge result shows why Tories should drop 'high-cost green policies', including those in energy bill
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory former business secretary, is a Somerset MP, and he is being interviewed on the Today programme. Nick Robinson points out to him that, if the swing in the Somerton and Frome byelection were replicated in his seat at the general election, he would be out.
Rees-Mogg says byelections are not always a good guide to what will happen in a general election. He says his message is “don’t panic”.
He says in 1992 the Tories won back all the seats they had lost in byelections in the preceding parliament.
And the Tories should learn a lesson from Uxbridge.
Q: What lesson is that?
Rees-Mogg replies: “That high-cost green policies are not popular.”
Q: Greg Hands earlier defended government policy on the transition to green energy.
Rees-Mogg says he agreed with what Hands said about going with the grain of human behaviours. He suggests there is no need to rush the phasing out of petrol and diesel cars.
He repeats the point about the need for his party not to panic. They should support Rishi Sunak, he says.
Q: You used to criticise him as socialist.
Rees-Mogg says he wants the Tories to win the next election. No Conservative would want Keir Starmer in Downing Street.
Q: Better the devil you know?
Better a Conservative prime minister than a Labour one, Rees-Mogg says.
He says the energy bill will put high charges on people. The government should not do that.
Q: So you are saying back Rishi Sunak conditionally, provided he drops things like the energy bill.
No, Rees-Mogg says. He wants Tories to back Sunak “regardless”, he says.
UPDATE: Rees-Mogg said:
You should learn from where the government has done surprisingly well against the form book, and learn there that high-cost green policies are not popular.
I think the government should take away the power for these Ulezes, which is provided for by legislation ... You should go with the grain of what voters are doing anyway. Voters are year in, year out, buying cleaner cars with cleaner engines. The development of engines in recent decades have been phenomenal.
You can do this by osmosis, rather than by hitting people, because actually all these charges hit the least well-off motorist rather than the rich motorist who buys a new car every few years anyway.
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Sunak visits Uxbridge to celebrate byelection victory
Rishi Sunak is in Uxbridge with Steve Tuckwell, the victorious Conservative candidate, PA Media reports. They arrived in a cafe to loud clapping and cheering. PA says:
The prime minister chatted to people sitting at the tables, celebrating the result which saw Tuckwell hold on with a majority of just 495, down from the 7,210 Boris Johnson secured in 2019.
“Are you all pumped?” Mr Sunak said to one group as he thanked Tory campaigners.
He also joked: “Normally when I get woken up at three in the morning it’s only bad news. So, it was a welcome change.”
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On BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Nick Robinson, is discussing the results with Prof Sir John Curtice, the elections expert. He points out that Curtice was chuckling as Greg Hands claimed that what mattered most was the Uxbridge result. Curtice repeats the point he made earlier about, overall, the fall in the Tory vote matching what the polls are saying. (See 7am.)
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'Byelections not always good predictor of general elections', claims Tory chair
Hands says the government is not opposed to ultra low emission zones. But he says the Tories think people should not have to replace their cars until their cars have reached the end of their lives. Policies like this need to be introduced gradually, he suggests, so that they “go with the grain of human nature”.
He says Sadiq Khan botched the consultation on the Ulez policy. This shows that Labour cannot be trusted to run things, he says.
Q: What does Rishi Sunak have to change to respond to the concerns of the voters in Somerton and Frome, and in Selby and Ainsty?
Hands says the government is focusing on the people’s priorities.
Q: So you are not going to change – just carry on as now.
Hands says the government needs to continue the work it is doing.
Q: But the results show this is not what people want.
Hands says there is a long history of people voting against governments in byelections. He goes on:
Byelections are not always a good predictor of general elections.
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Hands says Uxbridge result show voters have 'real misgiving about Labour in power'
Greg Hands, the Conservative chair, is being interviewed by Nick Robinson on the Today programme. He says Uxbridge was the standout result of the night. It was not expected, he says.
Q: But you need to face up to reality too. What do you think the voters are telling you?
Hands says the voters “are saying that the Conservatives need to do better”. But that is why Rishi Sunak has set five priorities, he says.
Q: Which ones are you actually delivering on?
Hands claims the government is making progress.
Q: But are you actually meeting any of them? You accept that?
Hands says they were “not designed to be an easy thing to meet”.
He says during the campaigns he picked up “a real misgiving about Labour in power”. And that was reflected in Uxbridge, which is in London, where Sadiq Khan has been in power, he says.
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George Osborne, the Conservative former chancellor, claims the Uxbridge result will give his party hope. He says:
Despite dire results in Selby and Somerton – winning Uxbridge has given the Tories something very precious, that they didn’t have yesterday: hope. Hope they can get voters focused on what a Starmer government would mean for their cost of living. Hope this is more like 92 than 97.
Despite dire results in Selby and Somerton - winning Uxbridge has given the Tories something very precious, that they didn’t have yesterday: hope. Hope they can get voters focussed on what a Starmer government would mean for their cost of living. Hope this is more like 92 than 97
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) July 21, 2023
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Rishi Sunak has posted a message on Twitter congratulating Steve Tuckwell, the Conservative candidate who won the Uxbridge and South Ruislip byelection.
Congratulations Steve, a much deserved result after a great campaign.
— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) July 21, 2023
I look forward to welcoming you in Westminster as our new Conservative MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip! https://t.co/rpxLTc3zgv
Conservative chair Greg Hands claims Selby defeat largely caused by Tories 'staying home'
Asked about the defeat in Selby, Greg Hands, the Conservative chair, claimed it was caused by Tory supporters staying at home. He told GB News:
Clearly we’re disappointed by the result in Selby and Ainsty. We had a fantastic candidate in Claire Holmes. What I would say is that result was driven largely by Conservative voters – previous Conservative voters – staying home.
Clearly we’ve got work to do to win back the trust and confidence, we don’t deny that.
Rishi Sunak has been in office now for nine months working very hard against the five priorities of halving inflation, restoring growth, reducing debt, cutting hospital waiting lists and stopping the boats. That is still work in progress.
We’ll be fighting hard to regain that constituency next year.
There may be some truth in the claim that some Tory supporters “stayed at home” during the byelection. But this is a normal occurrence in byelections, and it does not explain why the swing from the Tories to Labour was the second biggest since 1945. (See 5.39am and 7am.)
The turnout was not particularly low in the byelection. Including those last night, there have been 16 byelections in this parliament. Only five of them had a higher turnout than in Selby and Ainsty.
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Greg Hands, the Conservative party chair, accused Keir Starmer this morning of “flip-flopping” on Ulez. In an interview with GB News he said:
There’ll be real questions in Labour headquarters today about not gaining Uxbridge.
Londoners see that Labour is not good at running things and they see that Keir Starmer is changing his views all the time depending on the audience that he has in front of him.
In inner London he’s pro-Ulez, put him in outer London he’s suddenly expressing his doubts about Ulez.
Hands was using the “flip-flop” line because portraying Starmer as someone who is unreliable, and who keeps performing U-turns, has become one of the Conservative party’s main attack claims.
On Ulez, the Tories were entitled to claim that the policy was being introduced by the Labour mayor of London, but opposed by the Labour candidate in Uxbridge, where voters will be affected by the extension.
Starmer’s line on Ulez was similar to that set out by Angela Rayner this morning (see 7.40am); he said that in principle he was in favour, but that he thought central government should have funded a more generous scrappage scheme to minimise the financial impact on drivers affected.
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Angela Rayner says Uxbridge result shows voters need help to change behaviour when Ulez-type schemes introduced
Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader, told BBC Breakfast that the problem with Ulez, the ultra low emission zone being extended to outer London, was that central government had not provided London with enough funding to help people, via scrappage schemes, who need to get rid of polluting cars.
She argued that the Uxbridge result did not mean Ulez was wrong in principle; it just showed that people needed financial support to change their behaviour. She said:
At the moment the government is failing to provide the support for people to change their behaviours. And they can’t outsource it to mayors or to cities. This is a problem that’s going to hit most of the UK because we do have emissions in some of our big major towns and cities that are unsafe for people and we’ve got to clean up our act. But that means we’ve got to help people to do that.
The result in Uxbridge tells you that people want to do the right thing, but they don’t want to be penalised because they can’t afford to change their vehicles and there isn’t a scrappage scheme that complies with the legislation to help them do the right behaviours.
So I think the public want to do the right thing, they just want to make sure they’re not penalised. I hear that and I think it’s something all political parties need to reflect on.
Ian Dunt, the political commentator and author of the superb How Westminster Works … And Why It Doesn’t, has posted a good thread on Twitter arguing that what is really significant about the byelection results is what Uxbridge says about how easy it is to mobilise opposition to environmental measures.
It's an Ulez result, the result of local anger about a local policy That means it's not likely to be pertinent in next year's general election - it'll have been implemented already and there aren't enough outer London seats to make it decisive.
— Ian Dunt (@IanDunt) July 21, 2023
However, in the long term, it's very disturbing. It demonstrates the kind of opposition which can be rallied to environmental policies and how easily the Conservatives could be seduced into leading it.
— Ian Dunt (@IanDunt) July 21, 2023
We've seen this in Europe. The gilet jaunes movement was a response to cutting speed limits and raised fuel taxes in France. There was outrage in the Netherlands over reduced speed limits to comply with emissions targets.
— Ian Dunt (@IanDunt) July 21, 2023
Right wing populist parties tried to exploit that anger: The Dutch Party for Freedom, the Sweden Democrats, Alternative for Germany, and Nigel Farage himself, although not many people noticed.
— Ian Dunt (@IanDunt) July 21, 2023
The Tories will be desperate after the next election. It's very easy to imagine them being seduced into becoming cheerleaders for those angry about climate change policies. And it's very easy to imagine Labour suddenly becoming more nervous about proposing them.
— Ian Dunt (@IanDunt) July 21, 2023
All of that makes me more nervous than the next election result. It hints at a very bleak long term political dynamic. It's crucial that progressives do the thinking now on how to take people with us on climate change policy rather than alienate them.
— Ian Dunt (@IanDunt) July 21, 2023
Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem deputy leader, told the Today programme that the result in Somerton and Frome showed her party were “back in the west country”. She said there were 15 seats in the west country with smaller majorities than the one overturned in Somerton and Frome. She went on:
There are seats like Chippenham and Cheltenham and Taunton Deane and places like that that we’re really going to be targeting.
Amongst those 15 seats, we’re going to look at the result that we’ve had this morning and we’ll be looking at what other prospects there might be for us in that area.
Nadine Dorries, the former culture secretary and Boris Johnson uber-loyalist, is arguing that the Uxbridge result is some sort of endorsement for her former boss. She has posted this on Twitter.
If the horrible fictional invented by the media ‘long Boris’ syndrome did exist, it would have been felt the worst in his own former constituency. The swing and the numbers show v clearly, angry Tories won’t turn out for Sunak - they know how to administer their own justice.
It’s an unusual view. According to a report in the Telegraph last week, Johnson’s only involvement in the campaign was a call to Steve Tuckwell, the Tory candidate, asking him if he had read Johnson’s Mail column about Ulez. “After Mr Tuckwell responded that he had read the piece, Mr Johnson replied: ‘Very good,’ and the call ended,” the Telegraph reported.
But Dorries might not be entirely wrong. Her point about the Uxbridge result not being an endorsement for Rishi Sunak is one that Prof Sir John Curtice has been making too. (See 7am.)
If the horrible fictional invented by the media ‘long Boris’ syndrome did exist, it would have been felt the worst in his own former constituency.
— Rt Hon Nadine Dorries (@NadineDorries) July 21, 2023
The swing and the numbers show v clearly, angry Tories won’t turn out for Sunak - they know how to administer their own justice.
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Keir Starmer has posted a message on Twitter saying the result in Selby and Ainsty shows “how powerful the demand for change is”. He says:
Congratulations @Mather_Keir, Labour’s new MP for Selby and Ainsty!
Last night, Selby and Ainsty made history. This incredible result shows how powerful the demand for change is.
Only Labour can deliver that change, and build a better Britain.
Congratulations @Mather_Keir, Labour’s new MP for Selby and Ainsty!
— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) July 21, 2023
Last night, Selby and Ainsty made history. This incredible result shows how powerful the demand for change is.
Only Labour can deliver that change, and build a better Britain. https://t.co/PmLjBKyVDA
Tories should not take comfort from Uxbridge because, overall, byelections suggest national polling accurate, says expert
Prof Sir John Curtice, the BBC’s elections specialist, has delivered his assessment of the results on the Today programme. Here are his main points.
Curtice said the swing in Selby, at almost 24 percentage points, was the second biggest swing from the Conservatives to Labour in a parliamantary byelection. The only bigger one was the swing in the Dudley West byelection in 1994 (29 points), he said.
He said the swing in Somerton and Frome (29 percentage points) was only the fifth biggest byelection swing from the Tories to the Liberal Democrats. But two of the bigger ones were also in this parliament, he said, in Tiverton and Honiton, and in North Shropshire. He said it showed the Lib Dems were able to squeeze the Labour vote.
He said the Tories “should not take too much comfort” from the victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. He said the Conservative candidate himself, Steve Tuckwell, said his victory was all down to the Ulez issue. Tuckwell did not interpret the result as an endorsment of Rishi Sunak, and his five priorities, Curtice said.
He said, across all three byelections, the average drop in Conservative support was 21 points. That roughly matches the 18-point drop in Conservative support that the national opinion polls are showing, he said. He went on:
In other words, taken as a piece, these three by elections are consistent with the depressing message of the opinion polls that the Conservatives are a long way behind.
And he said Uxbridge result, which showed voters punishing Labour because of Ulez, would probably boost those in the party urging Keir Starmer to adopt a so-called “Ming vase” strategy (an ultra cautious, no risk approach). Curtice said the result showed the risk of “bold and perhaps desirable” policies that upset the electorate. It is called the “Ming vase” approach because Roy Jenkins once described Tony Blair, ahead of the 1997 election, as being like someone being very cautious because they were carrying a Ming vase across a shiny floor and were worried about dropping it. Some in Labour, notably Alastair Campbell in his The Rest is Politics podcast, argue that Ming vaseism isn’t enough, and that Labour needs to make a bold offer to voters too.
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Selby and Ainsty results in full
And here are the Selby and Ainsty results in full.
Keir Mather (Lab) 16,456 (45.96%)
Claire Holmes (C) 12,295 (34.34%)
Arnold Warneken (Green) 1,838 (5.13%)
Mike Jordan (ND) 1,503 (4.20%)
Dave Kent (Reform) 1,332 (3.72%)
Matt Walker (LD) 1,188 (3.32%)
Nick Palmer (Ind) 342 (0.96%)
John Waterston (Soc Dem) 314 (0.88%)
Sir Archibald Stanton (Loony) 172 (0.48%)
Guy Phoenix (Heritage) 162 (0.45%)
Andrew Gray (ND) 99 (0.28%)
Tyler Wilson-Kerr (Ind) 67 (0.19%)
Luke Wellock (Climate) 39 (0.11%)
Labour majority: 4,161 (11.62%)
Electorate 80,159; Turnout 35,807 (44.67%, -27.00%)
2019 result: Conservative majority 20,137 (35.69%) – Turnout 56,418 (71.67%) Adams (C) 33,995 (60.26%); Rofidi (Lab) 13,858 (24.56%); Macy (LD) 4,842 (8.58%); Jordan (Yorkshire) 1,900 (3.37%); Warneken (Green) 1,823 (3.23%)
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Somerton and Frome results in full
Here are the full results from Somerton and Frome.
Sarah Dyke (LD) 21,187 (54.62%)
Faye Purbrick (C) 10,179 (26.24%)
Martin Dimery (Green) 3,944 (10.17%)
Bruce Evans (Reform) 1,303 (3.36%)
Neil Guild (Lab) 1,009 (2.60%)
Rosie Mitchell (Ind) 635 (1.64%)
Peter Richardson (UKIP) 275 (0.71%)
Lorna Corke (CPA) 256 (0.66%)
Lib Dem majority: 11,008 (28.38%)
Electorate 87,921; Turnout 38,788 (44.12%, -31.46%)
2019 result: Conservative majority 19,213 (29.61%) – Turnout 64,896 (75.58%) Warburton (C) 36,230 (55.83%); Boyden (LD) 17,017 (26.22%); Dromgoole (Lab) 8,354 (12.87%); Dexter (Green) 3,295 (5.08%)
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Uxbridge and South Ruislip results in full
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, and I will be covering the reaction to the most important byelection results of the year.
But, first, here are the results in full. In all three byelections there were a lot of minor party candidates and so you might not have seen the numbers in full yet.
Here are the results for Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Steve Tuckwell (C) 13,965 (45.16%)
Danny Beales (Lab) 13,470 (43.56%)
Sarah Green (Green) 893 (2.89%)
Laurence Fox (Reclaim) 714 (2.31%)
Blaise Baquiche (LD) 526 (1.70%)
Steve Gardner (Soc Dem) 248 (0.80%)
Kingsley Anti Ulez (Ind) 208 (0.67%)
Count Binface (Binface) 190 (0.61%)
No Ulez Leo Phaure (Ind) 186 (0.60%)
Richard Hewison (Rejoin) 105 (0.34%)
Piers Corbyn (LLL) 101 (0.33%)
Cameron Bell (Ind) 91 (0.29%)
Enomfon Ntefon (CPA) 78 (0.25%)
Rebecca Jane (UKIP) 61 (0.20%)
Ed Gemmell (Climate) 49 (0.16%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 32 (0.10%)
Seventy-seven Joseph (Ind) 8 (0.03%)
Conservative majority: 495 (1.60%)
Electorate 67,067; Turnout 30,925 (46.11%, -22.37%)
2019 result: Conservative majority 7,210 (14.96%) – Turnout 48,187 (68.48%) Johnson (C) 25,351 (52.61%); Milani (Lab) 18,141 (37.65%); Humphreys (LD) 3,026 (6.28%); Keir (Green) 1,090 (2.26%); Courtenay (UKIP) 283 (0.59%); Buckethead (Loony) 125 (0.26%); Binface (Ind) 69 (0.14%); Utting (Ind) 44 (0.09%); Yogenstein (ND) 23 (0.05%); Burke (Ind) 22 (0.05%); Smith (ND) 8 (0.02%); Tobin (ND) 5 (0.01%)
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That’s it from me, Helen Sullivan after, dare I say, a fun night. I’m handing over now to the brilliant Andrew Sparrow – stay tuned.
Early morning summary
If you’re just waking up – or just tuning in – here is what happened in the UK byelections:
Labour and the Liberal Democrats each won a seat off the Tories, who kept the third seat, formerly Boris Johnson’s, of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
The winning Conservative candidate for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Steve Tuckwell, blamed Labour’s failure to win on the London mayor, Sadiq Kahn, saying: “Sadiq Khan has lost labour this election and we know that it was his damaging and costly Ulez policy that lost them this election.”
The Liberal Democrats won a sweeping victory in Somerton and Frome, with candidate Sarah Dyke crediting their win, in part, to the Tory’s “circus of chaos”. The swing at Somerton was 29.0 percentage points, or the equivalent of a net change of 29 in every 100 people who voted Tory in 2019 switching sides.
The Somerton win makes Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey is the first leader of any political party to win four byelections since the 1990s, when Paddy Ashdown, founding leader of the Lib Dems, did so.
Labour won Selby and Ainsty, making history with the largest Conservative majority (20,137) overturned by Labour at a byelection since 1945.
Labour’s candidate in Selby, Keir Mather, is just 25 years old and will become the youngest MP in the House of Commons.
Labour managed a swing of 23.7 points in Selby and Ainsty: the largest achieved by Labour at byelection since it won Dudley West from the Tories in December 1994 (29.1 points) and the second largest swing managed by Labour at a byelection since 1945.
Labour’s win in Selby exceeds the national 12-point swing the party needs for an overall majority at the next general election and the 16-point swing suggested by recent polls.
Labour has now gained two seats in byelections since the 2019 general election, after its 2022 win in Wakefield.
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Selby and Ainsty results - analysis
Selby and Ainsty, tonight’s most exciting result, made history: it is the largest Conservative majority (20,137) overturned by Labour at a byelection since 1945.
Here are the key numbers, via PA Media:
The previous record was set at the Mid Staffordshire byelection in March 1990, when Labour overturned a Tory majority of 14,654.
To win the seat, Labour needed a swing in the share of the vote of 17.9 percentage points: the equivalent of a net change of 18 in every 100 people who voted Conservative at the 2019 general election switching sides.
They managed a swing of 23.7 points: the largest achieved by Labour at byelection since it won Dudley West from the Tories in December 1994 (29.1 points) and the second largest swing managed by Labour at a byelection since 1945.
The Conservative share of the vote in Selby dropped sharply from 60% at the 2019 general election to 34%, while Labour’s share rose from 25% to 46%.
The winner, 25-year-old Keir Mather, will become the youngest MP in the House of Commons.
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Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey is the first leader of any political party to win four byelections since Paddy Ashdown - founding leader of the Lib Dems - did so in the early 1990s, PA reports.
The Conservatives were defending a majority at Somerton of 19,213 and it is one of the largest of its kind to be overturned at a UK byelection since 1945, sitting just outside the top five.
The result means the Lib Dems have regained a seat they first won at the 1997 general election and then held for 18 years - one of a number of constituencies in south-west England that once made up the party’s “yellow wall”, which was wiped out by the Conservatives in 2015.
However, new Lib Dem MP Sarah Dyke will soon face a fresh challenge, as Somerton and Frome is one of a number of seats being abolished at the next general election due to boundary changes.
It is being split in two to form the new constituencies of Glastonbury and Somerton and Frome and East Somerset.
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Somerton and Frome results - analysis
Key figures for Somerton and Frome, via PA:
Somerton and Frome is the fourth seat the Liberal Democrats have taken from the Conservatives at a byelection since the 2019 general election. All of the seats have changed hands on huge swings in the vote.
The swing at Somerton was 29.0 percentage points, or the equivalent of a net change of 29 in every 100 people who voted Tory in 2019 switching sides.
This is well above the 14.9 point swing the Lib Dems needed to win the seat.
It beats the swing the party achieved when they defeated the Conservatives at the byelection in Chesham and Amersham in June 2021 (25.2 points) and is just below the swing when they gained Tiverton and Honiton from the Tories in June 2022 (29.9 points).
The party managed an even bigger swing when they defeated the Conservatives at North Shropshire in December 2021 (34.1 points).
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Uxbridge and South Ruislip results - analysis
Here are some of the key facts and statistics from the results of Thursday’s byelections, via PA:
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Labour needed a swing in the share of the vote of 7.6 percentage points to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip from the Conservatives, but fell short and managed only 6.7 points.
This is well below the 12.7 point swing Labour achieved at the Wakefield byelection in June 2022, when they won the seat from the Tories.
Labour did manage to cut the Conservative majority at Uxbridge from 7,210 at the 2019 general election to just 495, while the Tory share of the vote fell from 53% in 2019 to 45%.
Labour’s share of the vote rose from 38% to 44%.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip has been held continuously by the Conservatives since the seat was created in 2010 and new MP Steve Tuckwell is the third Tory to represent the area, after John Randall and former prime minister Boris Johnson.
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David Simmonds, the Conservative MP for neighbouring Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, said he is delighted with the results and believes Tuckwell won because he is a “community person first”.
“It shows the power of the local community, the strength of the feeling against Ulez, but also the sense that people have a high degree of confidence in the conservatives.
The Tory’s win in this byelection should be seen as a “turning point”, Simmonds said. “I think this is yet another message that says that the conservative party has a lot to offer this party and we will continue to work to show that message.
Labour’s Danny Beales left after the count was announced.
Who is Keir Mather?
Aged 25, the new Selby and Ainsty MP will become the youngest MP in the Commons, the baby of the house. Mather was named after Keir Hardie, the first leader of the Labour Party. He is a former researcher for shadow health secretary Wes Streeting.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said Mather will be “a fantastic MP who will deliver the fresh start Selby and Ainsty deserves”.
His win comes after Labour was determined to “throw the kitchen sink” at taking the constituency from the Tories.
Steve Tuckwell, the winning Conservative candidate for Oxbridge and Ruislip, said on stage after the victory was declared, “This message from the Uxbridge and Ruislip election is clear. Sadiq Khan has lost labour this election and we know that it was his damaging and costly Ulez policy that lost them this election.”
Tuckwell argued that this byelection result boiled down to Ulez, and Labour’s “tactic … not to push Ulez” is what led to his victory.
“I’ve campaigned tirelessly to ensure that the voices of Uxbridge and South Ruislip have been heard. We’ve been ignored for many many months now, even years on a lot of issues that have come out of Sadiq Khan and City hall.
Asked whether Boris Johnson had any influence on the result, Tuckwell said: “Boris Johnson’s name was not on the ballot paper, mine was so there’s no influence there at all.
“From the outset of this campaign, I have been the underdog. The polls, the pundits have predicted a big labour win.
“I think they’ll be Labour MPs in outer London boroughs who will be looking at these results tonight with sweaty palms.”
“This election result is now the voice of the people of Uxbridge and South Ruislip and he [Khan] has to listen.”
Updated
It has been a busy and eventful night: all of the major developments are wrapped up here, by Helen Pidd, Mabel Banfield-Nwachi and Sammy Gecsoyler.
The Labour party has won its biggest ever byelection victory by overturning a 20,000-vote Conservative majority in Selby and Ainsty, sending a 25-year-old to parliament.
But Keir Starmer’s party failed to win Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Boris Johnson’s old constituency. The Conservatives held on to the outer London seat with a majority of 495, the only bit of good news in an otherwise miserable night for Rishi Sunak.”
Read the full report:
Updated
Labour’s victory means Keir Starmer has become the first party leader since Paddy Ashdown in the 1990s to win four byelections, PA reports.
Updated
In Selby, the Conservatives blamed the outgoing MP, Nigel Adams, for their defeat.
People were “really disappointed” that Adams quit in a huff because he didn’t get a seat in the Lords, said Andrew Jones, the scrupulously polite MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough, who has been overseeing much of the Tory campaigning in Selby. So, added Jones, was he. It was “the main talking point” on the doorstep, he claimed.
The Liberal Democrats have now gained four seats from the Conservatives at byelections this parliament: Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire in 2021, and Tiverton and Honiton last year.
Labour has now gained two seats in byelections since the 2019 general election, after its 2022 win in Wakefield.
Updated
Labour’s win in Selby exceeds both the national 12-point swing the party needs for an overall majority at the next general election and the 16-point swing suggested by recent polls.
More on what makes the Selby result historic: gaining Selby sets a record for the size of majority overturned by Labour at a byelection, according to Dr Hannah Bunting and Prof Will Jennings, Sky election analysts. The highest majority the party has overturned at a byelection is 14,654 votes in Mid Staffordshire more than 30 years ago.
Starmer: 'This is a historic result'
Following the Selby and Ainsty victory, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said: “This is a historic result that shows that people are looking at Labour and seeing a changed party that is focused entirely on the priorities of working people with an ambitious, practical plan to deliver.
“Keir Mather will be a fantastic MP who will deliver the fresh start Selby and Ainsty deserves.
“It is clear just how powerful the demand for change is. Voters put their trust in us – many for the first time.
“After 13 years of Tory chaos, only Labour can give the country its hope, its optimism and its future back.”
There was a 23.7 percentage point swing in the share of the vote from the Conservatives to Labour in Selby & Ainsty.
Labour needed a 17.9 point swing to take the seat.
Asked how he feels about being the baby of the house, he says he’s “had much worse”.
“It feels like we are on the path to being on the precipice of a Labour government,” he says.
“This is the largest majority we’ve overturned in our history,” Mather tells Sky News. Cost of living is his number one priority, he says.
Updated
A very happy Keir Mather, the 25-year-old Labour candidate who has just won Selby and Ainsty:
Updated
Labour win Selby, overturning largest numerical majority in post-war history
Labour’s victory in Selby and Ainsty is the “largest numerical majority overturned by Labour in post-war history,” according to Britain Elects’ Ben Walker.
“People opened their doors to us and embraced our positive vision for the future,” Mather says.
“For too long, Conservatives up here and in Westminster, have failed us. And now that changes. It’s time for a fresh start,” he says.
He thanks his partner Euan, too.
He says he has encountered “so much hardship” while campaigning – hardship caused by the Tories.
Labour win Selby and Ainsty
Labour have won Selby and Ainsty, achieving a historic result by winning despite the Tories having a majority of more than 20,000 votes. Labour now has a majority of 4,161 – and the youngest MP in parliament. Keir Mather, 25, is officially the baby of the house.
35,886 votes were cast, with 69 ballots rejected.
The results are as follows:
Labour: 16,456
Conservatives: 12,295
Yorkshire party: 1,503
Reform UK: 1,332
Independent: 99
Updated
The candidates are now on stage in Selby.
Updated
Labour’s candidate in Selby, Keir Mather, would become the “baby of the house” by being the youngest MP, if elected. He is 25 years old.
Updated
Candidates have been called forward to hear the provisional results before they are announced on stage.
While we wait (just a little longer) for that result in Selby, here is the moment Sarah Dyke won in Somerton and Frome:
📺WATCH: The moment @SarahDykeLD is duly elected MP for Somerton and Frome, with a stonking 11,000+ majority.
— Liberal Democrats (@LibDems) July 21, 2023
What a fantastic result. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/uRetj7D3IX
Eyes on Selby and Ainsty - declaration due shortly...
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) July 21, 2023
A fun fact about a not very fun name: the building where the Selby result is being announced imminently was named by one Steve Wadsworth.
He won a competition to choose a name for the leisure centre in Selby with the suggestion ‘Selby Leisure Centre’:
Look what a brilliant idea Steve Wadsworth had for a new name for Selby Leisure Centre: pic.twitter.com/xwZrTh0V5U (via @andyteale1970)
— Jeremy Vine (@theJeremyVine) November 8, 2014
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While we wait for that result, back to Somerton and Frome: Liberal Democrat Leader Sir Ed Davey said said the “stunning victory” showed his party was “firmly back” in its former West Country stronghold.
“Sarah Dyke will be an incredible local champion for the people of Somerset who have been neglected for far too long,” he said.
“She will fight for stronger local health services, better access to GPs and a fair deal for rural communities during this cost of living crisis.
“The people of Somerton and Frome have spoken for the rest of the country who are fed up with Rishi Sunak’s out-of-touch Conservative Government.”
Cameras are trained on the podium at the Selby and Ainsty count.
Tory result in Somerton and Frome is worst in history of the seat
In Somerton and Frome, the Liberal Democrats overturned a near 20,000 majority to flip their fourth Tory seat since 2019.
The Lib Dems won 21,187 votes with a 28-point swing while the Tories achieved their worst result in the history of the seat with 10,179 votes and 26% of the vote. Labour also achieved their worst result ever in the seat with 1,009 and 2.6% share of the vote, being beaten out by Reform UK who won 1,303 votes.
Spirits were high early on among the Lib Dems with party sources briefing they had “romped home” before counting had officially begun.
David Warburton, the former Conservative MP for the constituency, resigned last month after being suspended from the party in April 2022 amid claims of drug use and sexual harassment. He admitted the former but denied the latter. The allegations were being investigated by the independent complaints and grievance scheme (ICGS) at the time of his resignation.
Unlike other contests won by the Liberal Democrats this parliament which saw the party flip true-blue seats orange, Somerton and Frome had a Liberal Democrat MP between 1997 and 2015.
Sarah Dyke, the newly elected MP for the constituency, said in her victory speech: “Like so many places across the country, we have been let down and taken for granted for far too long by a tired and out of touch Conservative government.”
Christine Jardine, the MP for Edinburgh West said: “Tonight shows we are back in a strength and a power to be reckoned with in this part of the country again.”
Perhaps warning of what to expect in a victory lap on Friday, Ed Davey tweeted: “I think we’re going to need a bigger tractor.”
The wait continues in Selby, where the election agents are doing their last inspection of ballot papers with “doubtful marks”. This can be fun. In 2015 one Conservative MP thanked the voter who drew a penis in the box next to his name, which ended up counting as a legitimate vote. Less jollity tonight, just the odd person writing NONE across all of the names on the list.
Most people here seem to think that Labour has squeaked it – a major success in a seat where the Tories had a 20,000-plus majority. Andrew Jones, the Conservative MP for Harrogate, just told me he thinks the Tories are “a little short”, Meanwhile Labour says they are “cautiously optimistic”. So it’s looking like a Labour triumph here. The cameras are assembling at the podium, so a result is hopefully not too far away.
We’re hearing the stage is set up in Selby and Ainsty and candidates are getting ready to to hear the results.
Labour had been expected to comfortably win Uxbridge, where Johnson’s majority had dwindled to 7,210 in the 2019 general election – his first as prime minister.
There was sufficient disbelief in the Labour camp that they had not in fact won the byelection that party officials demanded a recount. The second round delivered the same result: a slim Conservative victory, majority 495.
Former postman Steve Tuckwell, the local Conservative councillor who will now take Johnson’s place in Westminster, had declared the vote a “referendum” on London’s ultra-low emission zone (Ulez).
In his victory speech, Tuckwell referenced the mayor of London’s decision to expand the zone where people have to pay a £12.50 daily fee to drive if their car does not meet emission standards. “Sadiq Khan has lost Labour this election,” said Tuckwell.
There was 6.7 percentage point swing in the share of the vote from Conservative to Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Labour needed a 7.6 point swing to take the seat.
The byelection was triggered by Johnson’s shock resignation after the Commons privileges committee recommended a lengthy suspension from parliament for knowingly misleading parliament about lockdown parties in Downing Street.
And a victorious Steve Tuckwell in Uxbridge and South Ruislip:
Updated
Here is a victorious Sarah Dyke speaking in Somerton and Frome:
Updated
If you’re just joining us: the Liberal Democrats have overturned a Tory majority of more than 19,000 to win the Somerton and Frome byelection.
Sarah Dyke won the Somerset seat by 11,008 in a dramatic swing away from Rishi Sunak’s party.
But the Tory leader was spared the prospect of being the first prime minister since 1968 to lose three byelections on the same day as Labour failed to secure victory in Boris Johnson’s former seat.
Labour’s hopes are now pinned on Selby and Ainsty, where it is seeking to take a seat that the Conservatives were defending with a 20,137 majority.
Updated
We’ll have analysis from our reporters on the ground in Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Somerton and Frome shortly.
It’s just Selby and Ainsty we’re waiting for now. That might still be an hour or two away.
A reminder: Selby and Ainsty is a seat in Yorkshire in the north of England. Labour would need to defeat the Tories by more than 20,000 votes here. According to Britain Elects, this would be the largest numerical majority overturned by Labour ever in the party’s history.
Updated
There was 6.7 percentage point swing in the share of the vote from Conservative to Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Labour needed a 7.6 point swing to take the seat.
Updated
A victory tweet:
Liberal Democrats WIN Somerton and Frome. 🔶
— Liberal Democrats (@LibDems) July 21, 2023
Congratulations @SarahDykeLD!
Somerset has spoken for the country: The public are sick of this Conservative Government taking people for granted. pic.twitter.com/uSO8UL8ckP
Updated
LibDem candidate for Somerton and Frome, Sarah Dyke, says that the victory is that of her loved ones as much as it is hers.
“The Liberal Democrats are back in the west country,” says Dyke.
She thanks lifelong Conservative voters for voting LibDem for the first time. “I will not let you down,” she says.
“There is no doubt that our electoral system is broken, but your vote has shown the Conservatives can still be beaten under it.”
Updated
Liberal Democrats win Somerton and Frome
The Liberal Democrats were right about that tractor – they have swept Somerton and Frome with more than 20,000 votes – a majority of 11,008 votes over the Conservatives.
Liberal Democrats: 21,187
Tories: 10,179
Labour: 1,009
Independent: 635
Updated
Candidates called to stage in Somerton and Frome
Results are coming in now from Somerton and Frome.
Here is some more analysis, via PA:
The Tories have held on to Boris Johnson’s former seat in a blow to Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.
Labour had hoped to take Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which the former prime minister held with a majority of 7,210 in 2019, but Tory Steve Tuckwell managed to retain it for Rishi Sunak’s party.
The Conservative victory means that Sunak has been spared the prospect of being the first prime minister since 1968 to lose three byelections on the same day.
London mayor Sadiq Khan’s policy of expanding the Ulez low emission zone to outer boroughs – including Uxbridge and South Ruislip – has been blamed for the party’s failure to take the seat.
Labour candidate Danny Beales had distanced himself from the policy, saying it was “not the right time” to expand the £12.50 daily charge for cars which fail to meet emissions standards.
The failure to overturn the Tory majority in the seat was dubbed “Uloss” by a party insider in a sign of the unease at Mr Khan’s plan.
In public, senior Labour figures acknowledged Ulez had been a factor in the vote.
Shadow justice secretary Steve Reed told the PA news agency: “I think there’s been a number of issues at play, but there has certainly been a number of voters who have said to us that they are very concerned about Ulez.
“Everyone wants to see clean air. But for some people, I think, given the chaos that there is in the economy, because the Conservatives have crashed it and the cost-of-living crisis that they fuelled, that this is the wrong time to introduce a charge for Ulez.”
Updated
Many of the seat’s candidates focused their campaign on London mayor Sadiq Khan’s plans to extend the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) to Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Updated
'Sadiq Khan has lost Labour this election,' says Uxbridge Tory candidate
Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell is making his victory speech in Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip on the outskirts of London.
“Sadiq Khan has lost Labour this election,” with the Ulez policy, Tuckwell says.
Updated
The Conservatives have held onto Uxbridge and South Ruislip, in what will be a very disappointing result for Labour, by just 495 votes.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip results: Conservatives win
The Conservatives have held onto Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Boris Johnson’s former seat. Labour was hoping to win, with the Tories being holding the majority in 2019 by just 7,210 votes.
Conservatives: 13,965
Labour: 13,470
LibDem: 526
Independent: 91
Updated
Results are about to be declared in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where the result was so close that a recount was granted.
The candidates have been called to the stage.
Both the Tory and Labour candidates have arrived at the count in Uxbridge and South Ruislip:
Tory and Labour candidates are both at the count in west London now. Declaration in Uxbridge very soon pic.twitter.com/TnDOG2SZfA
— Rachael Burford (@RachaelBurford) July 21, 2023
The recount is over in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the Guardian’s Mabel Banfield-Nwachi reports, so we should have are result there soon.
Timings from Britain Elects:
Declarations likely due in...
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) July 21, 2023
20-30 mins
Somerton & Frome
40-60 mins
Uxbridge & South Ruislip
1-2hrs
Selby & Ainsty
We’re still expecting a declaration in Somerton and Frome within the hour – and likely sooner rather than later – where the Liberal Democrats remain confident of their victory.
Things we love to see: it pic.twitter.com/NE8UoLZcK1
— Liberal Democrats (@LibDems) July 21, 2023
To Selby now, where counting is still in the early stages.
I’ve just been having a chat with Andrew Jones, the scrupulously polite Conservative MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough, who has been overseeing much of the Tory campaigning in Selby.
He said he was surprised how “policy-light” discussions had been on the doorstep, with “the main talking point being why we’re having this byelection in the first place, and that’s Nigel Adams’ resignation.” People are “really disappointed” that Adams quit in a huff because he didn’t get a seat in the lords, said Jones. So, added Jones, was he.
Both he and Judith Cummins, the Labour MP for Bradford South, who has been running the Selby campaign for the red team, agreed that by far and away the biggest concern among the electorate was the cost of living.
“It’s getting to a tipping point where it’s too much for everybody,” said Cummins.
She said she took heart from how many voters were willing to give Labour a hearing. “To be in with a fighting chance of winning here, shows such a massive improvement over the four years of Keir Starmer’s leadership. Making in-roads in a rural community like this is massive for us.”
Neither Jones nor Cummings could be drawn on who they think will win Selby. The wait continues.
We’re hearing we could know the recount result in Uxbridge and South Ruislip in 45 minutes or so.
Sky News political correspondent John Craig says, “We’ve been picking up Labour jitters throughout the evening” in Uxbridge and South Ruislip – and that those “jitters may be turning to panic”.
Updated
Fact-checking organisation Full Fact explains how recounts work:
Recounts are essentially at the discretion of the Returning Officer (the person who oversees the election in each constituency). They use guidelines issued by the Electoral Commission. Candidates and their agents are entitled to request recounts. A Returning Officer must consider any recount request but may by law refuse it if they deem it “unreasonable”.
The results of that first ballot count in Uxbridge and South Ruislip are “very close”, the Guardian’s Mabel Banfield-Nwachi, who is at the count, reports.
The Uxbridge and South Ruislip recount will happen straight away, so we will likely have a result within the next few hours.
Recount in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) July 21, 2023
Updated
Recount granted in Uxbridge and South Ruislip
A recount has been requested in Uxbridge and South Ruislip – and that call has been granted, Lloyd White, the returning officer in Uxbridge has just said, per the BBC.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the fringes of London, was Boris Johnson’s seat. Labour was also the favourite to win –the Tory majority in 2019 was by just 7,210 votes.
We’ll have more soon.
Updated
Evening Standard political correspondent Rachael Burford says, quoting a Labour source, that the Uxbridge result could be “recount territory”.
We’re hearing both the Uxbridge and South Ruislip and the Somerton and Frome results could be declared in the next ten minutes.
Labour a lot less confident in Uxbridge than they were at 10pm and Tories have perked up a bit. “We could be in recount territory”, says a Labour source 👀
— Rachael Burford (@RachaelBurford) July 21, 2023
The Selby result is a long way off (despite what I mistakenly said a moment ago – sorry).
A reminder of the stakes as we prepare to (probably) learn the results in two of tonight’s three seats at around 2am BST, in ten minutes’ time:
Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the fringes of London: Boris Johnson’s seat. Labour is the favourite to win. The Tory majority in 2019 was by just 7,210 votes.
Selby and Ainsty, in Yorkshire in the north of England: Labour would need to defeat the Tories by more than 20,000 votes here. According to Britain Elects, this would be the largest numerical majority overturned by Labour ever in the party’s history.
Somerton and Frome, southwest England. The Liberal Democrats are so confident of their win that they declared it tonight two hours after polls closed. That is not an official declaration. The 2019 Tory majority is 19,213 votes.
Updated
We’re hearing both the Uxbridge and South Ruislip and the Somerton and Frome results could be declared in the next fifteen minutes. Stay tuned.
Updated
Voter turnout in Selby was 44.77%. Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates has just said that it is “looking close”. If Labour takes Selby from the Tories, who won by more than 20,000 votes in 2019, it would be the largest numerical overturned by Labour ever in the party’s history.
Sky News politics and business correspondent Amanda Akass says she’s been told by the leader of Somerset Council’s Conservative group that voters feel “let down” by David Warburton, the Tory MP suspended on drug allegations:
Cllr David Fothergill, leader of the Conservative group at Somerset Council tells me Tory voters on the doorstep were telling campaigners they had been let down by David Warburton- says that’s the main reason for likely Tory defeat tonight #Byelections
— Amanda Akass (@amandaakass) July 21, 2023
Warburton announced in June that he was resigning his Somerton and Frome seat.
Warburton was suspended from the party in April 2022 pending the outcome of an independent complaints and grievance scheme (ICGS) investigation into allegations of harassment and drug use.
He told the Mail on Sunday he is quitting because he feels he was denied a fair hearing by the watchdog over the claims that he made unwanted advances to two women.
LibDem candidate Sarah Dyke has arrived at the Somerton and Frome count – and she looks pretty happy:
Lib Dems 🔶 candidate Sarah Dyke has arrived at the Somerton & Frome count to cheers from Lib Dems supporters, and was embraced by Christine Jardine. pic.twitter.com/qo8LJDbQjP
— Josh Gafson (@JoshGafson1) July 21, 2023
Updated
Politico’s London deputy editor Dan Bloom has rounded up the spin ahead of tonight’s results from the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats:
The spin at 10pm
— Dan Bloom (@danbloom1) July 20, 2023
CON: By-elections are rarely won by governing parties and are rarely good indicators of gen elec performance
LAB: None of these seats have ever had a Labour MP before, so were always going to be a challenge
LD: If we succeed it would mark a watershed moment
Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates says it “seems clear” that the LibDems will win Somerton and Frome tonight. We may have confirmation (or not) of that in 30 minutes’ time.
If the Liberal Democrats win in Somerton and Frome, the Guardian’s Sammy Gecsoyler tells me, Ed Davey will become the first leader of any party since Paddy Ashdown in the 1990s to win four by-elections
Updated
Only a fool would predict the result in Selby, but it’s late and I have just had a can of full fat Coke so I will say that it is looking pretty good for Labour in the piles of ballot papers I’ve seen piling up.
Still no obvious signs of jubilation in the Labour enclave of the leisure centre canteen, but they don’t look depressed either. Time will tell.
Crime also came up as a key issue in Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Shadow justice secretary Steve Reed says Danny Beales, the Labour candidate, has already delivered for the local community after a campaign to stop the closure of the local police station was successful.
“People will say they just don’t see the peace on the streets anymore,” he says.
“It doesn’t show much confidence, I think, on the part of the Conservative Party, they’re trying to avoid the top issue facing the nation.”
He said it was humbling to hear people who have never voted Labour are prepared to put their trust in Labour.
“Just three and a half years after our worst defeat, what a vindication of Keir Starmer’s leadership and where he’s taken our party and how he’s rebuilding trust with people who never would have envisaged themselves voting [for the] Labour party.”
Updated
Shadow justice secretary Steve Reed says he was cautiously hopeful for Labour’s chances in the byelection in Uxbridge and South Ruislip after being met with a warm reception on doorsteps today, but said he is not going to call it ahead of the count.
People were concerned about the cost of living, crime and Hillingdon Hospital, which is “in a state of dilapidation”, Reed says, despite the conservatives focus on the Ulez.
“There are all sorts of people that have been raising Ulez, but certainly the conservatives have tried to run the entire campaign as if this was about a single issue, but it isn’t,” Reed says.
“The issue that’s been coming up the most on the doorsteps today, just like for the whole of the five weeks that I’ve been involved, is the cost of living.”
Reed said people’s household budgets are really “pressed” at the moment and that many say they are worried about losing their homes.
“You’ve got problems like that that are directly attributable to the chaos that the government created when they crashed the economy last autumn with the mini budgets and interest rates spiralling and effectively baked in a Tory mortgage premium into people’s repayments.
“They are furious when the government has done that to them because they feel utterly betrayed by a government that they hoped was on their site as they tried to build a home for themselves or for their families.”
Updated
The declaration in Somerton and Frome could be made at 2am, much earlier than expected, Sky News reports. It is partly because voter turnout was so low – just 44.23% of voters cast a ballot.
It is currently just after 1am BST.
In case you missed it: Labour chairwoman Anneliese Dodds played down expectations after the polls closed, calling them “incredibly challenging elections” for the party.
She also told BBC Newsnight: “Whatever the result one thing is very clear, and it’s been clear to me when I’ve been speaking with people on the doorstep that there will be people in this election who will be voting Labour for the first time.
“They can see that Keir Starmer has turned the Labour Party around, that the Labour Party is in the service of working people.
“And I think that will definitely be the case whatever the eventual result from these byelections.”
Liberal Democrats are not backing down on that Somerton and Frome result:
Hear that noise?
— Liberal Democrats (@LibDems) July 20, 2023
Across the country, manufacturers of giant orange props are nervously checking their stock levels....
The Somerton and Frome turnout of 44.23% was 31.4 percentage points lower than in 2019.
Somerton and Frome, turnout:
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) July 20, 2023
44.23% (-31.4)
Updated
Labour sources say “there are grounds for optimism in Selby,” Sky News deputy political editor Sam Coates has just said.
Updated
Conservative MP Andrew Jones said the result in the Selby and Ainsty constituency – which the Conservatives won by more than 20,000 votes in 2019 – would be “close”.
Asked who might win, he told BBC Newsnight: “Well, who knows? We think it’s going to be very close.”
He said it felt like an “individual” byelection, as he hinted at frustration on the doors over the decision of Nigel Adams to quit as an MP and trigger a poll.
“This has felt more local, more personal. I think that’s been caused by the reason the by-election is taking place, but I think it’ll be close.”
He also urged colleagues to get behind Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in the wake of the by-elections.
“I think the public know full well that the nation is facing challenging times and internationally these are challenging times.
“So I think the message would be, we’ve just got to get our head down, work and get through this period.
“I’ve not felt any sense that the Labour Party was pulling people into them. I’ve sensed a sense of frustration, frustration particularly in the cause of this by-election.
“The sitting MP walking away has been a sense of disappointment and that’s putting it quite mildly.”
Updated
Voter turnout in the Somerton and Frome byelection was 44.23%.
Dispatch from Somerton and Frome
Ballots are still being counted in Somerton and Frome but spirits are high among the Liberal Democrats in the counting hall. “We are confident we have got a decisive victory tonight,” Christine Jardine, the Liberal Democrat MP for Edinburgh West, told the Guardian.
“If you look at what is happening here tonight, what has happened in the other by-elections that we have won in this parliament, people are unhappy with the Conservatives, they are unhappy with the way they are managing the economy, they are unhappy with mortgage rates, they are unhappy with inflation. In this part of the world they can’t get a GP, they want change.”
“This could be a significant night for British politics, its a very significant night for us. The conservatives are in trouble in all these by-elections tonight. What we are seeing is people saying enough is enough, people want change,” Jardine said.
“Tonight shows we are back in a strength and a power to be reckoned with in this part of the country again.”
When asked what change mean if they voted for the Liberal Democrats, Jardine said: “It would mean a change of government in the country. It would mean there is a strong voice in parliament for communities.
“We believe in decision making at a local level. We believe in essential things like building the right houses in the right places. We want to see people getting GP appointments in time. We want to see the NHS improve. We want to see improvements in education.”
In case you’re just joining us: less than two hours after polls closed, the Liberal Democrats claimed they had “romped home” in Somerton & Frome, overturning a Tory majority of more than 19,000.
While Labour and the Tories attempted to manage expectations in Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Selby & Ainsty.
A triple defeat for the Tories would heap pressure on the Prime Minister ahead of a general election expected next year. the Lib Dems were jubilant.
A Lib Dem spokesman said: “We’ve not just won, we’ve romped home in Somerton and Frome.
“The Conservative vote is in freefall.”
Party leader Sir Ed Davey joked: “I think we’re going to need a bigger tractor.”
Updated
Voter turnout in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Boris Johnson’s former West London constituency, voter turnout was 46.23%, according to Britain Elects – 17.3% less than in 2019.
Uxbridge & South Ruislip, turnout:
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) July 20, 2023
46.23% (-17.3)
31,000 votes cast
Dispatch from Selby count
We’re two hours into the count in the glamorous surrounds of Selby Leisure Centre and no one yet seems confident of victory. I’ve been to many counts over the years and even this early into the night you can tell already if it’s going to be a landslide. Party activists attempt to keep poker faces but they can’t hide their delight if it looks like they are going to romp to victory. There is no badly suppressed glee on show here yet. Just nervous faces as ballot verification continues.
A local Labour source who was present the last time a Labour candidate won in Selby — John Grogan, who scraped in with 467 votes in 2005, only to lose in 2010 after boundary changes — said: “It’s hard to tell but it looks ok.”
The Guardian’s North of England editor, Helen Pidd, is at the count in Selby. More from her in a moment – but she says neither the Tories nor Labour seem confident yet.
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Despite the more than 20,000 Labour would need to win Selby – which would be the largest numerical overturned by Labour ever in the party’s history, according to number-crunchers at poll aggregator Britain Elects – some commentators are confident that they’ve done it.
Yorkshire Party Deputy Chair David Herdson, formerly a Conservative, says Labour will win “comfortably”.
👇 David Herdson, longtime activist, former Conservative and now of the Yorkshire Party and someone who generally knows what he’s talking about. Would likely be Labour’s all time best ever by-elex performance if he’s right. https://t.co/4qhD50Pml1
— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) July 20, 2023
RE Selby, remember this: 20,000 majority. Overturning that would be a record for Labour. Unless anyone can point me otherwise I believe it would be the largest numerical overturned *by Labour* ever in the party's history, by-election or not.
— Ben Walker (@BNHWalker) July 20, 2023
In Boris Johnson’s former West London constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, candidates wait with bated breath as all of the ballot boxes are in and counting has begun.
There are 17 hopefuls in the running, many focusing their campaign on London mayor Sadiq Khan’s plans to extend the ultra-low emission zone (ULEZ).
Despite the number of candidates, many expect the race will go to Labour or the Conservatives, who have held the seat since the boundary was created.
Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell hopes to retain the seat, won by over 7,200 votes in 2019. He has called the by-election a “referendum on ULEZ”.
The Hillingdon councillor claims many residents in the heavily-car reliant constituency will out of pocket if ULEZ goes ahead.
Former charity worker, Danny Beales is running for Labour. Born in Hillingdon Hospital, the Camden councillor has stressed his local roots and is keen to win people over with his pledges to improve the hospital and put more money into the pockets of local people.
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There are three seats up for grabs in the byelections. Should the Conservatives lose all three, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose a trio of byelections in a single day.
Here are the seats:
Uxbridge and South Ruislip, on the fringes of London: Boris Johnson’s seat. Labour is the favourite to win. The Tory majority in 2019 was by just 7,210 votes.
Selby and Ainsty, in Yorkshire in the north of England: Labour would need to defeat the Tories by more than 20,000 votes here. According to Britain Elects, this would be the largest numerical overturned by Labour ever in the party’s history.
Somerton and Frome, southwest England. The Liberal Democrats are so confident of their win that they declared it tonight two hours after polls closed. That is not an official declaration. The 2019 Tory majority is 19,213 votes.
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Hello, this is Helen Sullivan joining you for our rolling coverage of the UK byelection.
The LibDems have already declared victory in Somerton and Frome, but this is by no means an official result –just, to use their words “loudly confident”.
It is currently midnight in the UK – this is when we may have the final results:
2am BST or later for Uxbridge and South Ruislip
3-4am BST for Somerton and Frome
3-6am BST for Selby and Ainsty
Stay tuned as we take in the stakes, the votes and the best commentary and analysis.
You can find me on Twitter @helenrsullivan – send me questions, charts, pictures of your dogs outside polling stations and anything else you think our readers might find interesting.
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The turnout in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election was 46.23%, PA reports.
Lib Dems claim they have won Somerton and Frome byelection
The Liberal Democrats have claimed they have won the Somerton and Frome byelection.
The official result is not expected to be declared for a few hours yet.
A Lib Dem spokesman said: “We’ve not just won, we’ve romped home in Somerton and Frome.
“The Conservative vote is in free-fall.”
Bill Esterton, Labour MP for Sefton Central in Merseyside, also reports a positive response on the doorstep in Selby today, though stops short of predicting a Tory defeat.
He tweeted: “I met a number of lifelong Tory voters who were voting Labour in Selby today. Whether that’s enough for us to win, I don’t know, but it points to a close result in a constituency that we’ve not won before. Good luck
@Mather_Keir.”
A confident tweet from Lib Dem leader Ed Davey.
Davey had launched the party’s election campaign by riding in a tractor in Berkhamsted as it smashed down a stack of Tory blue hay bales.
I think we’re going to need a bigger tractor. 🚜
— Ed Davey (@EdwardJDavey) July 20, 2023
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Labour chair Anneliese Dodds played down expectations after the polls closed, calling them “incredibly challenging elections” for the party.
She told BBC Newsnight: “Whatever the result one thing is very clear, and it’s been clear to me when I’ve been speaking with people on the doorstep, that there will be people in this election who will be voting Labour for the first time.
“They can see that Keir Starmer has turned the Labour Party around, that the Labour party is in the service of working people.
“And I think that will definitely be the case whatever the eventual result from these byelections.”
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Liberal Democrat MP Christine Jardine said her party was “quietly confident” about victory in Somerton and Frome.
The party is tipped for victory in the byelection and Jardine told BBC Newsnight that success would be “huge”.
“I don’t want to go counting any chickens too early, but we are confident tonight,” she said. “We’ve had a very positive response on the doors and I think I would say quietly confident, though we’re not being too quiet about it.
“We are confident that we’re going to see a result in our favour tonight.”
In an email to Lib Dem supporters, the party’s leader, Sir Ed Davey, said of Somerton and Frome: “We’re on for another historic result.” He added: “I’m confident we will win big tonight.”
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I’m reporting from Selby, where Labour MPs think they may just pull off a victory for the ages by overturning the Conservatives’ 20,137 majority.
Kate Osborne, the MP for Jarrow in the north-east, was out campaigning today and told me: “It was really positive on the doorstep.
“I didn’t speak to a single person who said they were voting Conservative but spoke to many who were turning to Labour for the first time and one who hadn’t voted Labour for 20+ years.
“I asked if it was local or national issues that were influencing their vote and nearly all said both and that they were fed up with a government that weren’t listening and didn’t care. So I’m hopeful we will take it.”
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The Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine said: “If we succeed in overturning the huge 19,000 majority in Somerton and Frome, in what should be a safe Conservative seat, it would mark a watershed moment for the Liberal Democrats.
“It would prove yet again that in vast swathes of the country, from Somerset to Surrey, the best way to get rid of this Conservative government is to vote for the Liberal Democrats.”
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A Labour party spokesperson said: “It’s going to be some time before we get any results. But what we do know is that none of these seats have ever had a Labour MP before, so they were always going to be a challenge.
“We didn’t even win Uxbridge in 1997 and to win Selby and Ainsty would require us to overturn the biggest majority in our history.
“So while we don’t know if we’ve made it over the line, it’s clear that Keir Starmer’s leadership of a changed Labour party, back in the service of working people, has seen voters put their trust in us – many for the first time.”
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A Conservative party spokesperson said: “There’s no doubt that this was always going to be a very challenging set of byelections, especially given the circumstances in which they were brought about.
“We have to wait for the results to come in, but byelections are rarely won by governing parties and they are rarely good indicators of general election performance.
“Across all of these campaigns we have heard zero enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party and their lack of answers.
“We now need to redouble our efforts earning back the trust of voters by delivering on our plan to halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce debt, cut waiting lists and stop the boats.”
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The prime minister has acknowledged that holding the three seats, including Boris Johnson’s former constituency, will be a “tough battle”.
For Labour, winning the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat vacated by Johnson and the Selby and Ainsty constituency formerly held by his ally Nigel Adams would be a major boost for Sir Keir Starmer.
In Somerton and Frome, in a contest triggered by the resignation of scandal-hit David Warburton, the Liberal Democrats hope to add to a series of eye-catching recent byelection victories.
While Johnson only held his seat with a majority of 7,210 as he led the party to a national landslide in 2019, the Tories had a cushion of around 20,000 votes in the other two constituencies, so losses would increase Tory pressure on Sunak.
The prime minister could attempt to reset his administration with a cabinet reshuffle in the wake of the contests – defence secretary Ben Wallace has already signalled he will exit the government so there is a vacancy to be filled – although No 10 has publicly insisted there are no plans for a shake-up.
Sunak would need to decide whether the benefits of freshening up his team at this stage would be outweighed by the risk of it being perceived as a panicked response to an electoral setback.
In Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Labour’s Danny Beales hopes to defeat the Tory Steve Tuckwell, although rows over the Mayor of London’s decision to extend the ultra-low emission zone may cost Labour votes.
In Selby and Ainsty, 25-year-old Keir Mather will become the new Baby of the House if he wins for Labour, with Tory Claire Holmes trying to retain the seat for her party.
Somerton and Frome has Sarah Dyke hoping to win for the Liberal Democrats, while Faye Purbrick wants to ensure it stays Conservative.
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The polls have now closed in the byelections to choose a new MP in Somerton and Frome, Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Selby and Ainsty.
Voters had been able to cast their ballots from 7am on Thursday.
If the Conservatives suffer three defeats, Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose a trio of byelections in a single day.
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We are in the last few minutes of voting in three byelections in England in a significant test of Rishi Sunak’s premiership.
They are being held in the south-western Tory stronghold of Somerton and Frome in Somerset, Boris Johnson’s old seat in the west London suburbs Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Selby and Ainsty, North Yorkshire, which was triggered by Nigel Adams’s resignation last month.
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