The first round of the men’s NCAA tournament begins in exactly three weeks, meaning it’s not too soon for us to start looking ahead to college basketball’s postseason and envisioning how things will go.
We gave five Sports Illustrated college hoops writers six statements relating to the Power 6 conferences and the 2022 Big Dance and asked whether they agree and are buying in, or don’t agree and are selling. While it’s too early to know the specifics of seedings and regions—which could change the outlook for some of these situations—our writers made their cases based on how things stand now.
Buy or Sell: The Big Ten will be absent from the Final Four
Pat Forde: SELL. There are too many good teams in the league for one of them not to get there. Could be Illinois, could be Purdue, could be Wisconsin, could be Michigan State or Ohio State that puts together a hot streak … or what if Rutgers really has pieced it all together? (The bubblicious Scarlet Knights have to actually make the field first, of course.) I believe both Purdue and Illinois have a hunger that came out of last year’s shocking early exits; the veterans who were part of those upset losses are more acutely aware of what it takes to advance and how to handle NCAA pressure. Wisconsin has a star power it rarely possesses in the person of Johnny Davis. Someone from the league is getting to New Orleans.
Kevin Sweeney: BUY. The Big Ten has a lot of good teams, but no truly great ones. Purdue’s lackluster defense means it can’t be trusted to win four straight in March, even though the Boilermakers are as explosive offensively as anyone. And while I’m a big believer in Illinois and Wisconsin behind respective stars Kofi Cockburn and Johnny Davis, it’s hard for me to bet on them as Final Four teams.
Jeremy Woo: BUY. The strength of the conference is in its depth, but, having spent way too much time at Big Ten games this season, I’m not convinced any of the top teams are legit Final Four material. The counterpoint would be that the collective trials of this group might steel Purdue or Illinois or Wisconsin or whoever enough to mount a run. But I’ll believe it when I see it.
Jason Jordan: SELL. With five teams ranked in the AP top 25, the Big Ten has the depth to thoroughly prepare a team for the treacherous road to New Orleans. Its best shot will undoubtedly be No. 4 Purdue, which checks in at No. 1 in offensive efficiency in KenPom. The Boilermakers lead the Big Ten in three-point percentage (40%) and have a legitimate star in Jaden Ivey, who is pumping in 17.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists a game. Matt Painter’s squad is gritty and determined, and looks the part of a team that will be playing in April.
Michael Shapiro: SELL. The Big Ten’s national title drought dating back to 2000 will continue this year, but I’ll put some faith in Purdue to represent the conference in the Final Four. A dominant month from Cockburn or E.J. Liddell could give the Big Ten another representative.
Auburn has the highest tournament ceiling of any SEC team
Forde: SELL. The team to watch from the SEC is Kentucky, not Auburn. The Tigers are extremely talented, long and athletic—but they also are prone to some stupefying in-game lapses (Jabari Smith must touch the ball in close games) and have been a sketchy road team of late. Their past four on the road: a one-point win over Missouri (12th in the SEC); a two-point win over Georgia (14th and last in the SEC); a loss to Arkansas; a loss to a Florida team that is on the NCAA bubble. The electric home atmosphere that has buoyed Auburn this season is difficult to pack up and take to neutral sites. Kentucky, meanwhile, is morphing into a near-perfect offensive machine: shooting it great inside and out; taking care of the ball; and in possession of the greatest offensive rebounder in years in Oscar Tshiebwe. The Wildcats are the top national title contender in the league.
Sweeney: SELL. That honor belongs to a Kentucky team that hasn’t lost at full strength since mid-December and poured in 90 points on Alabama last weekend despite not having Sahvir Wheeler or TyTy Washington Jr. available. The Wildcats are wrecking everyone they face on the boards thanks to Tshiebwe’s hulking presence, and they have great role allocation. They’re the SEC’s best team.
Woo: BUY. Auburn has Jabari Smith, and the other teams don’t. And whether or not you believe in their guards, if we’re talking high end, the Tigers have the personnel to win the whole thing.
Jordan: BUY. Given that there’s room for improvement for most teams, I feel like Bruce Pearl’s crew has shown the country why it’s to be feared come March. The Walker Kessler–Jabari Smith duo is devastating, and K.D. Johnson, Wendell Green Jr. and Allen Flanigan are steady role players who can upgrade to stars on any given night. Kentucky is another league team that, I believe, has yet to realize its potential, but there’s no way around banking on the Tigers to have the best chance to potentially represent the league in the Big Easy.
Shapiro: BUY. I’ll give the nod to Auburn given Jabari Smith’s candidacy as the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft four months from now, though I won’t consider the Tigers any sort of Final Four lock.
Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal/USA TODAY Network
The Big 12’s best shot at the national title is Kansas
Forde: BUY. The Jayhawks have the best player in the league in Ochai Agbaji; a capable supporting cast; enough size and shooting and ball handling; a commitment to defense; and a coach who knows the way. Baylor has championship DNA but not enough bodies. Texas Tech will guard until the last dog dies but lacks a high-functioning offense. Texas simply hasn’t put its myriad pieces together as well as expected. Kansas is the hope for the Big 12.
Sweeney: SELL. The Jayhawks have the inside track to the Big 12 title and a No. 1 NCAA seed, but right now Texas Tech and Baylor are more convincing national championship contenders. The Red Raiders are elite on defense and have different players capable of stepping up on different nights, while the defending national champion Bears have one of the best backcourts in the country when healthy. Inconsistency at the point guard and center positions are a concern with KU.
Woo: SELL. I think I’d rather guess at Baylor repeating than put my full faith in the Jayhawks. But this is a close one, and after the Jayhawks were totally obliterated by USC in last year’s tournament, they’ll have something to prove.
Jordan: SELL. I know what you’re gonna say: “Kansas has 10 Quad 1 wins!” (Tied for the most in the country.) But, as it stands today, the Big 12’s best shot at a national title is Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are just more balanced on both ends of the floor and have put together an impressive run over the last four games, including wins over No. 10 Baylor and at No. 20 Texas, plus they avenged a loss to Oklahoma in dominant fashion to show and prove their growth and potential. Let us not forget that two of those wins were without Kevin McCullar, a defensive stopper who posts 10.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists a game. Also, Kevin Obanor finally showed his star potential in the win over Baylor, scoring 23 points earlier this month; his emergence is necessary for the trip to New Orleans. Mark Adams’s crew seems to be trending upward at the right time.
Shapiro: SELL. I can’t shake my love for Texas Tech as March approaches. Mark Adams’s squad swept Baylor and Texas this season, and it was one double-overtime loss from winning both games against Kansas. Tech’s defense remains smothering. It’s getting healthy at the right time, now armed with a full complement of scorers. It’s not out of the question for the national champion to reside in Lubbock.
The Big East will have at least one team in the Elite Eight
Forde: BUY. Villanova looked like a train wreck late last season and made the Sweet 16, pushing eventual national champion Baylor there—and this year’s team will have Collin Gillespie in the tournament (knock on wood). Connecticut has enough pieces to make a run. I think Providence is operating at or very near its ceiling and has no NCAA tournament muscle memory to rely on, but the Friars still are finding ways to win close games and that is a vital tourney trait. I can see one of those three making a regional final.
Sweeney: BUY. This is Jay Wright’s best Villanova team since the 2017–18 team that cut down the nets for a second title in three years. That’s not to say the Wildcats are a favorite to do it again, but they certainly have a team good enough to make an Elite Eight or Final Four. Add in a feisty Providence team that has found ways to win all year and a UConn club with top-15 talent, and I like the Big East to have at least one of the eight teams left standing.
Woo: SELL. Other than Villanova, I have a hard time rallying behind anyone else. And this doesn’t feel like a year where ’Nova has the firepower to do it.
Jordan: SELL. For this to be true, I’d have to believe in the Big East’s two best teams—Providence and Villanova—and I just don’t. The Friars aren’t battle tested to the degree that I’m confident in their ability to take down giants and neither team is gonna sell tickets with its offense. Yes, Providence locks up defensively, holding teams to 63.3 points and forcing them to shoot 39% from the field, but in the second weekend you traditionally must score to knock off the higher seed. As it stands, the Friars are a No. 4 seed and the Wildcats are a No. 3 seed in SI’s latest Bracket Watch, meaning they’d have to knock off a No. 1 seed and a No. 2 seed, respectively. Currently, they’ve combined to go 12–7 against Quad 1 opponents this season. Can’t see it at this point.
Shapiro: SELL: Villanova, Providence and UConn all have fair cases, though all three are far from guarantees to reach the regional final. I’ll hedge my Big 12 optimism with a dash of skepticism toward the Big East.
Chris Coduto/USA TODAY Sports
The Pac-12 will be represented at the Final Four
Forde: BUY. This is the hardest question of the bunch for me, because there are only two logical contenders (Arizona and UCLA) and both have some issues. For the Wildcats, it’s a complete lack of NCAA experience and the specter of coming into the Big Dance a little soft after dominating a lackluster conference. For the Bruins, they have to get everyone healthy and in sync and then make enough shots. But the bet here is that either the Arizona talent overcomes its inexperience or the UCLA clutch gene overrides its spotty offense. I think the Bruins will simply be a very difficult team to eliminate.
Sweeney: BUY. Arizona is as good as anyone in the nation, one of two teams in the sport that rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The only other? Gonzaga, where Wildcats coach Tommy Lloyd spent his entire coaching career before taking over the Arizona program. That’s pretty good company. Plus, UCLA’s entire nucleus played in the Final Four a season ago. It’s a pretty good bet that one of those two teams will find a way to New Orleans.
Woo: BUY. I want to believe in Arizona. UCLA feels very boom or bust, but it’s done it before. I think one of the two, but not both, gets it done.
Jordan: BUY. While we can’t sleep on UCLA, a lesson the Bruins taught us last season, I’m not sold on them for New Orleans for a variety of different reasons—from health questions to focus questions with random disciplinary suspensions this season. I am, however, sold on Arizona and its prospects as we head into March. The Wildcats check in at No. 7 in offensive efficiency and No. 8 in defensive efficiency on KenPom and they’re a dominant collective rebounding team, a slept-on stat, especially in March. The Wildcats also have a legitimate star in sophomore guard Bennedict Mathurin, who is averaging 20.7 points per game over the last five. Plus, Azuolas Tubelis and Christian Koloko own the paint, combining for 27 points and 14 rebounds a game. Arizona is 5–2 against Quad 1 opponents and 19–0 against Quads 2–4; it bodes well as a projected No. 1 seed.
Shapiro: BUY. A likely No. 1 seed in Arizona plus Johnny Juzang and UCLA is too good of a combination to pass up.
The ACC will send at least five teams dancing
Forde: SELL. Duke is in. Wake Forest is almost in. But the next tier of ACC teams is all iffy: North Carolina, Notre Dame and Miami. A strong record in ACC play usually is a free pass to the Dance, but this is a lousy version of the league. The Tar Heels have almost nothing on the quality win sheet, plus a home blowout loss to abysmal Pittsburgh; the Fighting Irish are asking a Dec. 11 home win over Kentucky to do a lot of work on the résumé; and the Hurricanes are in danger of slipping behind Virginia in the at-large pecking order after being swept by the Cavaliers. I can see four, but probably not five.
Sweeney: SELL. North Carolina will come up just short, leaving the league with four bids. The Tar Heels finally have a Quadrant 1 win after winning at Virginia Tech on Saturday, but are just 5–7 in Q1 + Q2 games and have an awful Q4 loss to Pittsburgh. Without a win vs. Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium on March 5 or a major run in the ACC tournament, UNC is NIT-bound.
Woo: BUY. It may not be more than five, but I think at the end of the day it’s enough. I’ll say Duke, Notre Dame, UNC, Miami and Wake all get it done.
Jordan: SELL. In our latest bracket watch, the league is sending four with North Carolina making an appearance in the dreaded “first four out” category. Duke, Wake Forest, Miami and Notre Dame are dancing, which I don’t anticipate changing before the regular season given the favorability of their remaining schedules. Can North Carolina snag one of the spots? To that question, I pose this one: Can North Carolina win out? I don’t see that happening with Duke waiting in Mike Krzyzewski’s last game ever in Cameron. Don’t see any way Duke loses that game, rivalry or not. That means the Tar Heels would have to win a couple of games in the ACC tournament, which is possible. Still, the one thing the ACC has been consistent about this season is its dedication to being inconsistent. If North Carolina can piece together a spirited run at the ACC tournament it will likely be at the expense of another fringe team, thus causing a swap out. Four is the max this season.
Shapiro: BUY. We should see just enough quality wins from the likes of Miami, North Carolina, Wake Forest and Virginia to somewhat salvage what’s been a dismal year for the conference. Don’t expect any ACC teams in New Orleans in April.
