The Giants had one of the most impressive regular seasons in 2021. After missing the postseason over the previous four years with a combined (243-303 record), San Francisco held off the Dodgers to win the NL West (107 wins). They have had three World Series wins (2010, 2012 and 2014) over the past 11 years. Since 1987, the Giants made the playoffs in seven other seasons. San Francisco won their other championships in 1905, 1921, 1922, 1933 and 1954.
They finished second in ERA (3.24) while having the top bullpen in the league (2.99 ERA, 49 wins, 22 losses and 56 saves). The Giants moved to sixth in runs scored (804) and second in home runs (241) with 66 stolen bases (16th).
In the offseason, San Francisco lost SP Kevin Gausman (TOR), 3B Kris Bryant, SP Johnny Cueto, SP Aaron Sanchez, SP Jose Quintana (PIT), 2B Donovan Solano, OF Alex Dickerson and RP Tony Watson. They added SP Alex Cobb via free agency.
As great as the Giants played in 2021, they don’t have the foundation of their roster to repeat. Their starting rotation has one developing arm (Logan Webb), but the remaining options have just as much risk as reward. San Francisco hopes RP Camilo Doval can emerge as a lockdown closer. Many of their other relievers will struggle to pitch at the same level as last year.
San Francisco has seven potential starting bats that will start the year at the age of 30 or older. Unfortunately, I don’t see one stud while also losing C Buster Posey to retirement. C Joey Bart is the one developing, young player. The Giants need OF Helliot Ramos and SS Marco Luciano to come quickly to help push their way back up the standings. I expect them to sign a couple of free agents to improve the middle of their batting order.
Jim Cowsert/USA TODAY Sports
Starting Lineup
OF LaMonte Wade
Over six seasons in the minors, Wade hit .275 with 277 runs, 43 home runs, 246 RBI and 44 stolen bases over 1,755 at-bats. The best part of his profile was his walk rate (14.8) while also being challenging to strike out (13.8%). He hit .238 over 562 at-bats at AAA with 83 runs, 12 home runs, 53 RBI and 12 steals. However, as Wade moved up through the minors, his contact batting average was trending down with a dull average hit rate (1.487).
With the Giants last season, he had a significant jump in his average hit rate (1.906) and contact batting average (.344), leading to his best production in home runs (18). Wade failed to push higher in batting average due to a jump in his strikeout rate (23.4). His walk rate (8.7) also fell short of his minor-league resume. He finished with a platoon feel based on his struggle against left-handed pitching (5-for-37 with no home runs, two RBI and 14 strikeouts).
Wade offered a fly-ball swing path (44.2%), which fell in line with his direction in 2019. His launch angle (19.8 – 22nd) graded well while posting a league-average hard-hit rate (41.7 – 133rd).
Fantasy Outlook
Wade’s progression does give him helpful at-bats for the Giants, but he will be tougher to time in the fantasy world with a split role. His ADP (301) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship suggests more growth. However, I don’t trust his overall resume and San Francisco may add another bat after the lockout. With 450 at-bats, Wade has a chance at hitting .260 with 70 runs, 20 home runs, 65 RBI and a run at 10 steals.
1B Brandon Belt
Based on his at-bats (325), Belt was on pace for his best season with the Giants if he didn’t miss 65 games (oblique, left knee and broken left thumb). Belt set a career-high in home runs (29) while continuing to have strength in his walk rate (12.6). Over the past two years, his contact batting average (.407 and .401) moved into an elite area, but he finished with a spike in his strikeout rate (27.0) in 2021.
Belt smashed 25 of his 29 home runs off right-handed pitching (.280 BAA and .629 SLG). He hit 18 home runs over his final 145 at-bats with excellent play in September (.349/23/9/18 over 86 at-bats).
His swing path delivers many fly balls (50.0 – 44.0 in his career) while seeing a massive jump in his HR/FB rate (26.9 – 19.1 in 2019 and 12.6 in his career). Belt finished 81st in hard-hit rate (44.8), third in launch angle (23.0) and 15th in barrel rate (17.0).
Fantasy Outlook
In his 12th season with San Francisco, Belt has never been a foundation player. His approach gives him a chance to hit in the upper third of the batting order, but he tends to have risk in batting average due to many fly balls landing in outfielders’ gloves. His ADP (224) in the NFBC supports his growth in power but not his career path. In addition, Belt tends to have weakness in his RBI rate, so I don’t see a push toward 90 RBI unless 35-plus balls land in the seats.
SS Brandon Crawford
Crawford helped the Giants win two World Series titles over the past decade. San Francisco doesn’t win 107 games last year without his bat. He set career-highs in runs (79), home runs (24), RBI (90) and stolen bases (11). His overall approach (strikeout rate – 19.1 and walk rate – 10.2) pushed to a new high.
From 2017-20, Crawford hit .246 with 205 runs, 47 home runs, 218 RBI and 11 steals over 1,721 at-bats.
The growth in his bat came against right-handed pitching (.319 with 18 home runs and 63 RBI over 348 at-bats). From May 4-Aug. 16, over 75 games, he hit .333 with 48 runs, 15 home runs, 60 RBI and seven stolen bases over 267 at-bats.
Crawford missed 10 days in July with an oblique issue and a couple of games earlier in the year with a calf injury.
His fly-ball rate (41.4 – 34.3 in his career) was his highest since 2014. However, he finished 96th in hard-hit rate (43.3 – 96th) and 117th in launch angle (14.7 – 117th), but surprisingly better in barrel rate (11.5 – 62nd).
Fantasy Outlook
There is something to be said for clutch ability and Crawford has that in his game despite being in the back nine of his career. His ADP (208) in the NFBC in late February is much lower than in 2021. The Giants should hit him higher in the batting order, helping his value in runs and RBI. Overall, regression should be expected, leading to him underperforming his draft value.
3B Evan Longoria
Longoria had a slight rebound in his game in 2019 while missing a couple of weeks in July with a left foot injury. In 2020, he was on pace for 70 runs, 19 home runs, 76 RBI over 521 at-bats if major-league baseball played an entire season.
Last year, Longoria missed 81 games with injuries to his hamstring, side, left shoulder and right hand. His stats would have projected to a full season with 90 runs, 26 home runs and 92 RBI.
His strikeout rate (23.4) was his highest since his rookie season. Longoria regains his lost value in his walk rate (12.0), average hit rate (1.848) and contact batting average (.357).
Over the last six seasons, Longoria hit .259 with 333 runs, 112 home runs, 381 RBI and 13 stolen bases over 2,625 at-bats.
He finished with a balanced swing path and a push higher in his HR/FB rate (17.3). Longoria ranked ninth in hard-hit rate (54.5), 42nd in barrel rate (13.4) and 99th in launch rate (15.5).
Fantasy Outlook
Even with improved success with his bat, Longoria falls into a free range in NFBC based on his ADP (398). He has a chance to be a 20/80 type player, but his runs should fall short of expectations with a regression in his walk rate. Longoria missed 160 games over the previous four seasons.
OF Mike Yastrzemski
Heading into 2019, Yastrzemski had this battle between playing at AA and AAA with no defining success from 2016-18.
Over five seasons at AA, he hit .257 with 146 runs, 22 home runs, 128 RBI and 16 steals over .257 at-bats. However, his swing had a sudden step forward in 2019 at AAA (.316 with 12 home runs and 25 RBI over 136 at-bats), earning him a callup to the majors.
With San Francisco in 2019, Yastrzemski played over his minor league resume (.263 with 73 home runs, 363 RBI and 61 stolen bases over 2,600 at-bats). He hit .272 with 64 runs, 21 home runs, 55 RBI and two stolen bases over 371 at-bats.
In 2020, he had a phenomenal 192 at-bats (.297 with 39 runs, 10 home runs, 35 RBI and two steals), which projected to 105 runs, 27 home runs and 95 RBI over 518 at-bats if the season was 162 games.
Last year, Yastrzemski had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.312) despite not losing any momentum in his strikeout rate (24.6). He finished with strength in his average hit rate (2.038) in each season with the Giants. Yastrzemski continues to have a favorable walk (9.6).
His fade in batting average may have been tied to a rise in his ground ball rate (47.0 – 42.3 in 2020) despite ranking 27th in launch angle (19.4). Unfortunately, Yastrzemski had almost production against left-handed pitching (.170 with two home runs and seven RBI over 112 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
The overall package for Yastrzemski can work as a playable piece to a winning fantasy team. His bat has a chance to be neutral in four categories with a rebound in his swing path. He comes off the boards as the 176th batter in the NFBC with an ADP of 282. I’ll set his bar at .270 with 80 runs, 25 home runs and 80 RBI. His first step is rebounding against lefties.
3B Wilmer Flores
Flores played well over his first two seasons with the Giants while seeing time at first base, second base, third base and designated hitter. He hit .264 with 87 runs, 30 home runs and 85 RBI over 587 at-bats. His strikeout rate (12.8) almost matched his league average while setting a new top in his walk rate (9.4).
As a rotational player over his previous six seasons, Flores hit .274 with 241 runs, 84 home runs and 274 RBI over 1,881 at-bats. He has been better against lefties (.278 with 46 home runs and 130 RBI over 834 at-bats) in his career.
His average hit rate (1.781) graded well in his time with San Francisco, but he did have regression in his contact batting average (.306). Flores had a low hard-hit rate (35.4 – 225th) and barrel rate (6.0 – 219th) while gaining his power from a high launch angle (18.0 – 48th).
Fantasy Outlook
If given a full-time starting job, Flores has a reasonable floor in runs, home runs and RBI, which has been a problem over the previous six seasons. His ADP (404) in the NFBC points to a bench role in deep formats. The DH in the National League improves his chance for playing time and he may very well be their best option at second base if the Giants don’t add another option after the lockout.
C Joey Bart
The Giants drafted Bart with the second overall pick in the 2018 June MLB Amateur Draft. Over his final two years at Georgia Tech, he hit .330 with 91 runs, 29 home runs and 81 RBI over 406 at-bats.
In 2019, Bart started the season at High A (.265 with 12 home runs and 37 RBI over 234 at-bats) before a promotion to AA (.316 with four home runs and 11 RBI over 79 at-bats). His production in the minors (.287 with 121 runs, 39 home runs, 134 RBI and seven steals over 769 at-bats) grades well, but his approach (strikeout rate – 23.7 and walk rate – 6.5) fell short of expectations.
In his experience with San Francisco, Bart was overmatched at the plate (.239 with no home and seven RBI over 109 at-bats) due to a much weaker approach (strikeout rate – 36.8 and walk rate – 2.6).
Fantasy Outlook
The excitement in Bart’s bat faded over the past two seasons. He missed time at AAA last season with groin, foot and quad issues. His ADP (282) in late February in the NFBC ranks him as the 20th catcher. Bart has a talented bat, but he needs to show he can handle major-league pitching. Bart will hit for a high average when he puts the ball in play. With 450 at-bats, more than 20 home runs should be a given with neutral value in runs and RBI while owning some batting average risk early in his career.
OF Darin Ruf
Ruf failed to earn a starting job over five years in the majors. He hit .240 with 91 runs, 35 home runs and 96 RBI over 737 at-bats with a league average walk rate (8.2) and strikeout risk (27.5%).
After 2016, Ruf took his bat to Korea, leading to a .313 batting average over 1,493 at-bats with 267 runs, 86 home runs, 350 RBI and 13 stolen bases. His approach (strikeout rate – 17.1 and walk rate – 11.7) pushed to a higher level.
The Giants signed him in 2020. Ruf hit .272 with 52 runs, 21 home runs and 61 RBI over 349 at-bats over the past two seasons. He walked 14.3% of the time while still having a high strikeout rate (26.7). Last year, his bat showed more strength against left-handed pitching (.283 with nine home runs and 21 RBI over 113 at-bats).
His hard-hit rate (54.9) was the seventh-highest in baseball and 32nd in barrel rate (14.2). Ruf finished with an elite HR/FB rate (29.1) but had a low fly-ball rate (31.3).
Fantasy Outlook
The Giants need to sign a couple more bats. The DH in the National League should help Ruf’s playing time. His ADP (449) in the NFBC gives him a chance to be a bench flier in 15-team formats. There’s something brewing here, but age isn’t on his side.
2B Tommy La Stella
Over his first five seasons in the majors, La Stella hit .264 with 84 runs, 10 home runs, 94 RBI and four stolen bases over 828 at-bats. His path projected him as a liability in all five categories despite a promising approach (strikeout rate – 12.6 and walk rate – 10.1).
The Angels saw something in his swing in 2019, leading to a breakthrough season in power (.295 with 49 runs, 16 home runs and 44 RBI over 292 at-bats). His contact batting average (.326) wasn’t exceptional while showing some growth in his average hit rate (1.651).
La Stella hit .264 with 57 runs, 12 home runs and 52 RBI over 416 at-bats in 2020 and 2021. He finished with more walks (45) than strikeouts (38). His contact batting average (.291) was extremely low, with no change in his average hit rate (1.609).
He ranked 285th in his hard-hit rate (33.3). His HR/FB rate (10.0) rose slightly.
A hamstring issue led to three months on the injured list. La Stella’s season ended in late September with an Achilles injury that required surgery.
Fantasy Outlook
The Giants should use La Stella as a utility player this year. However, he may not be ready to start the year while lacking any starting fantasy value.
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Starting Pitching
SP Logan Webb
In the minors, Webb had success over seven seasons (3.36 ERA and 275 strikeouts over 302.1 innings). However, despite his path, he never pitched over 105 innings in any season with only one game of experience at AAA (one run over seven innings with seven strikeouts).
The Giants gave him 21 games of experience in 2019 and 2020, but his arm wasn’t major league-ready (5-7 with a 5.26 ERA and 83 strikeouts over 94 innings). His downside came from a high walk rate (3.6).
Last year, he pushed his ceiling to a much higher level, leading to an 11-3 record with a 3.03 ERA and 158 strikeouts over 148.1 innings. Webb finished with growth in his walk rate (2.2) and a bump in his strikeout rate (9.6). He had a 5.43 ERA, 1.563 WHIP and .290 BAA over 32 innings). His arm shined over his next 14 starts (1.46 ERA, .197 BAA and 88 strikeouts over 80.1 innings) while missing June with a right shoulder injury. Webb posted a 4.50 ERA over his final 36 innings.
His average fastball (93.3) is about league average. Webb has a plus curveball (.153 BAA with 88 strikeouts) while adding a show-me slider (.118). His changeup (.240 BAA) had more success against lefties (.222 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
This draft season, Webb will be treated as a foundation edge despite a short resume of success. His ADP (67) in the NFBC ranked him as the 17th starter. The Giants allowed him to throw over 100 pitches in only two games. In the postseason, Webb also gained extra points for two stellar games (one run over 14.2 innings with 17 strikeouts). Tempting for sure, but a previous shoulder issue and a history of weaker command paints a possible pullback in success. In addition, Webb pitched over 75 innings only twice over the past eight years.
SP Anthony DeSclafani
In 2019, DeSclafani looked rather dull over his first 11 starts (4.97 ERA, .258 BAA and 55 strikeouts over 54.1 innings) due to his struggles with home runs (14). Besides a bad start on June 23 (six runs and nine baserunners over 4.1 innings), his arm played much better over his next 10 games (3.17 ERA and 60 strikeouts over 54 innings). After two bad showings (9.64 ERA over 9.1 innings), DeSclafani drove home with success over his final eight starts (2.39 RA and 44 strikeouts over 49 innings).
He pitched well over his first two games (no runs over 11 innings with eight strikeouts) in 2020, but DeSclafani pitched his way out of the rotation over his next five starts (24 runs, 46 baserunners and seven home runs over 18.2 innings).
The move to San Francisco led to a rebound in his game last year. He won a career-high 13 games with success in ERA (3.17) and WHIP (1.091) over 167.2 innings with 152 strikeouts. His best area of growth was damage in home runs allowed (1.0 per nine – 1.7 over his last three seasons with the Reds).
DeSclafani had a disaster start on May 23 (10 runs, 12 baserunners and one home run over 2.2 innings). In his other 17 starts before the All-Star break, he had a 1.89 ERA, .201 BAA and 96 strikeouts over 104.2 innings. DeSclafani posted a 4.03 over his final 60.1 innings with 53 strikeouts.
His average fastball (94.2) was a three-year low. DeSclafani threw slider (.235 BAA) as his top usage pitch (36.2%). Batters struggled to hit his sinker (.182 BAA) and low-volume curveball (.201 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Staying healthy has been a significant problem for DeSclafani, along with home runs allowed. His slider's velocity dipped in September and October, which may be a sign of wear on his right elbow. His ADP (217) in the NFBC paints him as an SP4/SP5 in 12- and 15-team formats. I can’t see him repeating over an entire season with some time missed due to an injury. DeSclafani brings command with a good fastball, but I would tread carefully.
SP Alex Wood
Wood pitched well in 2018 (3.68 ERA and 135 strikeouts over 151.2 innings), but he failed to match his breakout success in 2017 (16-3 with a 2.72 ERA and 151 strikeouts over 152.2 innings).
In 2019, Wood didn’t make his first start until July 28 due to a back injury. His arm had no value over his seven starts (5.80 ERA, 1.402 WHIP and 11 home runs over 35.2 innings). He started on the injured list for five weeks in 2021 with a left shoulder injury that led to five weeks on the shelf. Wood looked fine over his first five relief appearances in September (one run over 5.1 innings with seven strikeouts). Unfortunately, his season ended on a down note (five runs and eight baserunners over 4.1 innings with four strikeouts).
Last year, he missed the first 17 days of the season with a back issue and about three weeks later in the year with Covid-19. Wood allowed two runs or fewer in 17 of his 26 starts. His arm had less value on the road (4.20 ERA, 1.401 WHIP and 63 strikeouts over 55.2 innings.
His average sinking fastball (91.8) regained some lost value. Wood continues to have a plus slider (.182 BAA), but he lost the feel of his changeup (.308 BAA – .259 in his career).
Fantasy Outlook
Over his last 75 appearances, Wood averaged only 4.5 innings per game. His ADP (224) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship is similar to DeSclafani’s, but I trust his arm a little more. Wood barely pitched in 2016, 2019 and 2020, so he is far from a layup. His resume says an ERA under 3.50 is well within reach with some help in strikeouts.
SP Alex Cobb
Over three seasons with Baltimore, Cobb went 7-22 with a 5.10 ERA and 148 strikeouts over 217.0 innings. Home runs (1.7 per nine) have been a problem with a low strikeout rate (6.1).
His arm rebounded in his only season with the Angels, leading to an 8-3 record with a 3.76 ERA and 98 strikeouts over 93.1 innings. In May, he missed time with a blister on his pitching hand, followed by a right wrist issue in late July. Cobb pitched poorly on the road (5.44 ERA and 1.522 WHIP over 44.2 innings), with some struggles vs. right-handed batters (.251 BAA).
His average fastball (93.3) was a career high. His curveball (.229 BAA) and split-finger fastball (.226 BAA) had an edge. Cobb also had a rebound in his sinker (.265 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Pitching in San Francisco should improve Cobb’s ERA and WHIP. He gained more strikeout ability last year while showing better command early in his career. Over the past three seasons, he only pitched 158 innings. Cobb looks inviting with a reasonable ADP (249) in the NFBC.
SP Ryan Murphy
The Giants drafted Murphy in the fifth round of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft after going 16-9 in college with a 3.40 ERA and 215 strikeouts over 203.2 innings.
In his first experiences in the minors, he dominated at A and High A, leading to a 2.52 ERA and 164 strikeouts over 107.1 innings. Murphy flashed an explosive strikeout rate (13.8) and strength in his walk rate (2.2).
His fastball sits in the low-90s while working off a plus slider and curveball. Murphy also brings a changeup that plays well at times.
Fantasy Outlook
San Francisco should start him at AA. With success, Murphy will quickly move to AAA and possibly the majors. For now, only a pitcher to watch in spring training and the minors.
SP Sean Hjelle
Hjelle had success over three seasons at college (22-10 with a 3.68 ERA, 222 strikeouts and eight saves over 229.2 innings). The Giants drafted him in the second round in the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft.
After struggling in 2018 at low A (6.75 ERA) while only tossing 21.1 innings over 12 starts, Hjelle pushed his way through three levels in 2019 (7-9 with a 3.32 ERA and 139 strikeouts over 143.2 innings). However, his stuff lost value at AA (6.04 ERA and 1.855 WHIP).
He pitched better at AA in 2021 (3-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 69 strikeouts over 65.2 innings) after a year off from minor-league baseball. However, the jump to AAA led to Hjelle struggling again (5.74 ERA and 1.800 WHIP over 53.1 innings).
His fastball sits in the low 90s while offering a curveball, slider and a developing changeup.
Fantasy Outlook
Hjelle needs to repeat AAA this year. More zip on his fastball would help his strikeout rate. Without improving his batting average against, he can’t be an asset for the Giants in 2022.
Bullpen
RP Camilo Doval
San Francisco gave Doval a run over 13 games in April and May, but he struggled with his command in and out of the strike zone. Over 10.2 innings, Doval allowed nine runs, 17 baserunners and four home runs.
A trip to AAA didn’t go well (4.99 ERA, 1.696 WHIP and 24 walks over 30.2 innings). When the Giants called him back up, Doval was a new man (no runs over 16.1 innings with three walks and 24 strikeouts) while converting his three saves.
Over five seasons in the minors, he went 9-10 with a 3.57 ERA and 277 strikeouts over 194 innings. Doval walked 5.1 batters per nine with an edge in his strikeout rate (12.9).
He threw a slider (.165 BAA) as his top pitch, which he threw 58.9% of the time. Doval featured a cutter (98.8 MPH) as his fastball.
Fantasy Outlook
I get the attraction in Doval’s arm, but he doesn’t have enough length of success with his command. His ADP (168) in the NFBC priced him with the top closer. Tough call, my gut says wait and see while an erratic spring training would seal the deal for me to avoid. His WHIP has more risk than his ERA, with a chance to make a run at 100 strikeouts.
RP Jake McGee
The detour to Colorado led to four rough seasons (4-11 with a 4.78 ERA, 178 strikeouts and 19 saves over 195.2 innings) for McGee.
Over 24 games in 2020, his arm returned to an elite level (3-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 20.1 innings), helping the Dodgers win the World Series. Other than strikeout rate (8.7), McGee repeated his rebound last year (2.72 ERA and 58 strikeouts over 59.2 innings) while converting 31 of 36 saves.
His average fastball (95.0) remains elite. McGee continues to throw his four-seam fastball (.193 BAA) a high percentage of time (89.4%) while still getting batters out with his slider (.208 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
The emergence of Camino Doval late last season brings more competition for saves for McGee. His ADP (279) in the NFBC in late February puts him in the second position for the Giants. His success over the previous two years should lead to some chances in the ninth while working as an insurance card.
