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ABC News
ABC News
National
Alasdair McDonald

Bushfire swings went both ways in Gilmore poll, but Andrew Constance still can't save it from here

Incumbent Gilmore MP Fiona Phillips has retained her seat. (ABC Illawarra: Jessica Clifford)

It was the tightest federal election contest in the country, but while the count is still continuing the Labor Party has declared incumbent MP Fiona Phillips the winner in Gilmore.

The contest for the ultra-marginal seat on the NSW south coast has brought an end to Andrew Constance's federal aspirations, for now at least, although the former state MP is yet to concede.

Each candidate saw big swings in Black Summer-ravaged towns, with many still rebuilding from the destruction of the fires.

Katrina Thomas runs the post office in the small town of Kangaroo Valley where Ms Phillips saw a swing of almost eight per cent.

She said the community was very environmentally focused, and while Mr Constance was not "totally helicoptered in" like the Liberals' 2019 candidate Warren Mundine he was not well known in the north of the electorate.

"Who is Andrew Constance?" she said with a laugh.

"The day after the election everyone came into the post office saying they felt lighter."

Big swings

Ms Phillips also saw a swing of 7.45 per cent in nearby Gerroa, which sits on the coast near Mr Constance's new hometown of Berry.

Post office owner of 20 years Jennifer Round said while she tried not to talk about politics with customers, the swing was likely due to Mr Constance not being seen in the town during the campaign, while Ms Phillips' face was well-known.

"If Australia was like America and we didn't have to vote it would make the politicians get out an about, but of course you can't be everywhere at once."

In the bushfire and COVID-ravaged town of Mogo, where locals said Mr Constance was very present after the fires, he garnered a swing of 15 per cent.

Inside the Mogo Post Office, which also serves as a busy petrol station, casual employee Linda Smith said she was happy to hear a recount of votes would take place if the margin between the pair drops below 100.

"I feel Andrew has people in his thoughts," she said.

Mogo Local Aboriginal Lands Council CEO Linda Carlson said she now calls Mr Constance a friend and said when the community felt lost he helped "reduce red tape with council" to help rebuild the town.

Andrew Constance saw a swing of 15 per cent towards him in shattered Mogo. (ABC News)

"We all voted for him because he helped us out and stood by us through the drama and trauma," she said.

Ms Carlson said if Mr Constance had dumped the Liberal Party and had run as an independent candidate she thinks he would have been elected.

The count continues

Despite swings to Mr Constance, Ms Phillips carried 36 booths across Gilmore to the Liberals' 26.

Australian Electoral Commission officials said they were continuing to review the count for the seat, which has so-far seen Ms Phillips slightly increase her lead to 371 votes.

It said it would not formally declare a winner in the seat until a full distribution of preferences was finished.

Psephologist and election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham said the current vote may only be out by a "few dozen votes" and doubted there would be an automatic recount.

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