Get all your news in one place.
100's of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Newcastle Herald
Newcastle Herald
Matthew Kelly

Bursting bubble or new dawn? What One Nation's rise means for Hunter politics

The top of Stuart Bonds' high-vis work shirt glowed in the darkened mining conference room like an orange flare.

Some at the Cessnock get-together may have considered the man wearing the shirt to be a toxic hazard. For others, he was a beacon of conservative hope and protest.

The NSW One Nation leader kept things simple - he promised that nuclear energy and a new coal-fired Hunter power station would bring down energy bills. He also wielded a venomous strike at the 'cult of net zero' for good measure.

While his claims went largely unscrutinised, one thing is certain: Bonds is cutting through where it counts - in the coal mining and rural communities of the Hunter and New England.

The orange tide that has been steadily rising across the nation this year could well reach its high-water mark in the Hunter at next year's state election.

As it stands, polling suggests the state seats of Cessnock and Upper Hunter are well and truly within One Nation's grasp and more could follow, even though the party is yet to name a single candidate.

The explanations for One Nation's rise vary depending on who you ask, but there is one common denominator. More ordinary Australians are becoming increasingly disenchanted with the policies of the major political parties whether it be the cost of living or the impact of renewable infrastructure on their property or community.

They are looking to express their frustration, even if, for some, it means switching their long-held political allegiances to a right-wing alternative.

Pauline Hanson will be in the Hunter on August 28. Picture Keegan Carroll.

One Nation founder, Pauline Hanson, will be hoping that her attendance at a sold-out fundraising dinner at Toronto on August 28 will help further fan the flames across the region.

But her visit won't be a magic carpet ride, as several protests are expected to coincide with her latest appearance in the region.

Bonds is yet to show his hand in terms of where he will run in the state election.

The 39-year-old mining mechanic was initially expected to contest the NSW Upper House, but in recent weeks has expressed interest in the Lower House.

"I think everyone is surprised at the level of support (for One Nation). I always thought we would get there but I didn't expect it to rise like Bitcoin," Bonds told the Newcastle Herald.

"I think it's a reflection on how bad everything is. Most elections are a referendum on the economy - the Liberals failed miserably during COVID, and then Labor got in and promised to fix everything and lower power bills and they have failed miserably."

"The option of going back to the Liberals doesn't look attractive because they're not promising to do anything radically different to last time. I think people are just at the end of their rope."

Bonds' first foray into politics came in the 2019 federal election when, as a One Nation candidate, he came within a whisker of rolling long-serving Labor incumbent Joel Fitzgibbon in the seat of Hunter.

Bonds secured more than 21 per cent of the primary vote and achieved a massive 20 per cent swing as part of a backlash against Labor's mining and climate policies.

Then came a bitter fallout with One Nation in 2021 over its support for controversial federal industrial relations reforms that would have adversely impacted casual workers in the mining industry.

He ran as an independent in the 2022 federal election and then flirted with the National Party before returning to One Nation ahead of last year's federal election.

"I spoke to Bonzi about potentially being a candidate for us (Nationals) in the last federal election," Hunter-based senator and former NSW director Ross Cadell said.

"I think there are some things with established parties where we didn't think we could get him across the line to be a candidate.

"He's a decent guy, his heart is in the right place and he can represent reasonably well."

Bonds admitted at this week's mining conference that he had been advised against joining One Nation.

"People thought I was mad to start with One Nation. Some of them are probably in this room; they tried to talk me out of it. But look, here we are," he said.

Nine months out from the state election, it's fair to say One Nation has its opponents rattled to the point that Premier Chris Minns has visited the Hunter three times in eight weeks.

Everyone is holding their breath to see if the bubble will burst or stay afloat long enough to wreak havoc in some of the state's seats?

"One Nation is a threat to be taken seriously throughout the Hunter Region and Labor is taking it seriously," former federal Hunter MP and Labor stalwart Joel Fitzgibbon told the Herald.

Former Hunter MP Joel Fitzgibbon. Picture Marina Neil.

"In most seats quality hard-working sitting members and/or healthy margins represent strong lines of defence. But if the tide is big enough, people will be washed out with it.

"Be in no doubt, understandably or otherwise, the punters are not happy".

Cessnock MP Clayton Barr holds the seat with a solid 19.7 per cent margin. In most cases that would give the Labor an almost unassailable lead, but not this time.

"It doesn't matter what brand it is. If people are feeling frustrated or disappointed with the government or different governments over a period of time, then they just go, "Oh, I'm just going to look somewhere else," he said.

"That concerns me enormously because I work as hard as I can for the local community.

"I've seen governments, on both sides of politics, do some pretty good stuff. So I'm struggling a little bit with the search for something that's a bit dangerous and unusual as a solution."

Clayton Barr. Picture Max Mason-Hubers.

Like other under-siege MPs, Barr hopes his constituents check under the hood for policy details before they vote.

"Trying to find a One Nation policy is like trying to hold smoke in your hand. It's just impossible, it doesn't exist," he said.

Ross Cadell agreed One Nation was a major threat to both Labor and the Nationals in the Hunter, but said his party was well-equipped to compete against a conservative alternative in the bush.

"We've always had a third strong conservative party up there (Upper Hunter), and I don't think this is much different," he said.

"I think sitting members have an advantage with their name ID. One Nation is clearly going late on that."

Upper Hunter incumbent Dave Layzell, who was elected in the 2022 byelection, is more than aware that the Nationals have never lost the seat that straddles the Upper Hunter and lower New England.

The electorate, which the Nationals hold with a 3.8 per cent margin, has been torn apart by the impact of the state-sponsored renewable energy infrastructure projects being installed on private property,

Layzell is also contending with former National Party leader turned One Nation torch bearer Barnaby Joyce whose federal electorate overlaps Layzell's state electorate.

Upper Hunter Nationals MP Dave Layzell. Picture Peter Lorimer.

"Joel Fitzgibbon gave me one of the most useful pieces of advice I have ever received. He said there's no such thing as a safe seat anymore because, in the age of social media, you have to be working hard and on the ball all the time," he said.

Layzell said he was confident the National Party's values continued to resonate strongly with rural voters, despite the rise of conservative alternatives.

"We have very traditional country values and I think they are still relevant today. We try to apply that to the local area. We are also a party that has the ability to improve our local area, not just by protesting but actually having solutions."

"At the end of the day, people get to choose. I'm going to continue working as hard as I can, raising the issues that I think are the most important, trying to improve conditions for everyone."

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100's of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.