Bristol City now know the identity of 22 of their 23 opponents next season with next week’s play-off final between Huddersfield Town and Nottingham Forest to determine the final place and the make-up of the 2022/23 Championship.
For the first time in five years, City will have an away day at Turf Moor following Burnley’s 2-1 defeat to Newcastle United on the final day of the Premier League season which left the Clarets three points from safety and ended a six-season run in the top flight.
Having sacked Sean Dyche in mid-April, interim manager Mike Jackson delivered 11 points from their final eight matches which wasn’t enough to preserve their elite status and now an uncertain future awaits.
Unlike fellow relegated sides Watford and Norwich City, even though they will be in receipt of parachute payments, Burnley’s fall into the Championship will lead to the sale of many of their prized assets due to the leveraged buyout by US-based investment firm ALK Capital.
When purchasing the club in December 2020, the American investors took out a £65m loan with MSD Holdings - a fellow American investment firm who have lent money to four English clubs, including Derby County - to complete the transaction. The amount was due to be repaid by 2025 but as Burnley’s accounts reported earlier this month, the financing carried a clause that if they were to become a Championship side - as now has transpired - a significant amount would have to be repaid by the end of this season.
As football finance expert Kieran Maguire told the i paper earlier this month : “Effectively what MSD Holdings are doing is saying ‘we are not taking on that risk if you do get relegated’. They’re saying they want the parachute payments and also the club would likely be compelled to sell a player like Dwight McNeil to cover that payment.
“For MSD Holdings, lending Burnley £65m in the Premier League is fine but £65m in the Championship is a significant amount of money and they’re protecting themselves against that risk.”
This is all of interest to City beyond just the strength of opposition they can expect to face next season because one of the players the Clarets are almost certain to sell is former Robins midfielder Josh Brownhill.
The 26-year-old has been one of the few bright lights in a largely miserable campaign, impressing with his dynamism, consistency, efficiency on the ball and tenacity out of possession.
West Ham appear the most obvious landing spot for Brownhill given the Hammers tried to gazump Burnley’s move for him from City in January 2020, only to be unsuccessful and pivot to Tomas Soucek, and have closely monitored his progress since.
With City legend Rob Newman as their head of recruitment, West Ham are in need of a Mark Noble replacement and with a wish to focus on domestic talent, hence his monitoring of Robins talents Alex Scott and Antoine Semenyo. Leeds United, Aston Villa, Everton, Wolves plus newly-promoted Wolves and Bournemouth have also been credited with an interest in Brownhill.
Given Burnley’s precarious financial position, amid the sheer weight of interest and his own desire to remain in the Premier League, it seems inconceivable that they won’t receive multiple bids for the midfielder.
City, of course, are believed to hold a sell-on clause from the original agreement to move Brownhill two and a half years ago, which stands between 10 and 20 per cent (we are seeking further clarification) of any profit from a future sale. The fee City agreed with Burnley was in the region of £9m.
Exactly how much Brownhill is worth in the market is difficult to ascertain and Burnley’s relegation has made that calculation a little more complicated; had they remained in the Premier League they could, to a point, name their price.
Now with the challenges that await them in covering debt repayment and future losses that inevitably occur following relegation and every suitor acutely aware of their circumstances, a £20m player - which appears a rough approximation of Brownhill’s price bracket - could quickly become a £15m player, or even less. They don’t have a great deal of bargaining strength, even with the midfielder under contract until 2024.
What is in Burnley’s, and therefore City’s, favour is the volume of clubs tracking him, which helps drive the price tag back up, but it’s clear any fee won’t be at the same level had the Clarets managed to beat Newcastle.
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