The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has released its long-range forecast for Australia's upcoming severe weather season.
Its outlook, for October to April, warns of an increased risk of widespread flooding for eastern and northern Australia and an increased risk of an above-average number of tropical cyclones and tropical lows.
Let's break it down and look at what it may look like for each state.
- New South Wales
- Queensland
- Victoria
- Western Australia
- Northern Territory
- South Australia
- Tasmania
- Australian Capital Territory
New South Wales
With dams full and river levels high, any rainfall has the potential to lead to widespread flooding across eastern Australia, according to the BOM.
It has also forecast an increased risk of widespread and prolonged riverine flooding across eastern Australia.
The outlook suggests a normal risk of thunderstorms, which means the usual barrage of storms for northern New South Wales, bringing plenty of hail.
Its outlook warns that tides on the coast are expected to be unusually high around January 23, 2023.
The bureau says the high tides are likely to bring flooding to low-lying areas and this could cause more severe coastal flooding if coastal or offshore storms are around at the same time.
Meanwhile, the eastern region, which includes New South Wales, has a 74 per cent chance of being impacted by more tropical cyclones than the average of four.
The wet conditions mean the potential for bushfires in spring is below-average in parts of New South Wales.
Queensland
Like New South Wales, unusually high tides are expected around January 23, 2023 on southern Queensland coasts.
On northern Queensland coasts, including in the Torres Strait, the highest tides are expected on February 20, 2023.
According to the BOM, it is likely these high tides will result in flooding in low-lying areas.
Queensland is also facing a higher risk of flooding as the rain is set to fall in wet catchments in quite a few areas.
The eastern region, which includes Queensland, has a 74 per cent chance of experiencing more tropical cyclones than its average of four.
Victoria
The bureau is warning Victorians to be alert for thunderstorm asthma, if conditions are dry late in spring and in early summer.
Such an event happens when warm days are followed by storms, and can particularly affect people who suffer from hayfever.
The bureau says there is an elevated risk of grass fires in southern Australia, with recent rainfall causing vegetation to grow.
Western Australia
There is a good chance of more cyclones than usual for Western Australia, according to the BOM.
This will be caused by warm ocean waters, which have the potential to drive increased rainfall and cyclone activity in the Kimberley and Pilbara.
It forecasts that the western region of Australia has a 69 per cent chance of more tropical cyclones than average.
Northern Territory
The bureau says that an early start to the wet season is the result of warmer waters from a combination of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole in the west.
Central Australia has a heightened risk of fires.
The northern region of Australia has a 61 per cent chance of more tropical cyclones than the average of two or three cyclones per season.
According to the bureau, about three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region have some form of impact upon coastal regions.
South Australia
While there is some influence from the Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña climate drivers at the moment, the BOM does not expect it to be as wet in South Australia as it is likely to be further east.
That's according to ABC weather reporter Kate Doyle.
She said most of the state's rain comes from the westerlies over winter and, as the high-pressure systems move down, it brings hot and dry summers for South Australia.
The BOM's national outlook forecasts is for there to be an elevated risk of grass fires in southern Australia and an increased risk of prolonged heatwaves in southern areas, along with higher humidity.
Tasmania
The national outlook shows heatwaves may last longer, be warmer overnight and be more humid in southern areas, according to the BOM.
An elevated risk of grass fire has also been forecast for southern Australia.
As a result of recent rain, vegetation has had more growth and, according to the BOM, it will not take many dry days in a row for grasses to dry out, bringing an increased risk of grass fires in southern Australia.
Australian Capital Territory
BOM's national outlook forecasts an increased risk of widespread flooding for eastern Australia.
The potential for bushfires in eastern states across the summer is considered to be normal.
However, the BOM is forecasting that, on account of high levels in rivers and full dams across eastern parts of Australia, any rainfall has the potential to lead to widespread flooding.
