With a win over Miami (OH) in the Arizona Bowl, the Bulldogs would improve to 9-4 under first-year head coach Matt Entz, who coached the first Bulldog offensive lineman to be named All-Conference First Team in the MW Era.
San Diego State can log its first 1o+ win season since 2011, and the first under second-year head coach Sean Lewis by defeating North Texas in the New Mexico Bowl.
I preview both postseason games here and provide my picks straight-up, against the spread, and over/under.
Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State
Saturday, December 27
1:30 PM PT, The CW
Casino del Sol Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Thom Brennaman, Will Blackmon, and Wes Bryant
Line: Fresno State -6
Over/Under: 42.5
The key to this one is simple for Fresno State: If the Bulldogs run the football and win the turnover battle, they will find success.
In their eight wins this season, Fresno State is averaging 207.5 yards per game, while that total dips to 94.6 in the four losses. The Bulldogs are among the best in the nation at creating turnovers, as their 24 are the 11th most in the country.
Again, that is the formula for Fresno State to win. In their eight victories this season, the Bulldogs have logged 20 takeaways and have forced 17 interceptions.
In their four losses, they have only created four miscues. But further to the point, the turnover margin is +1.25 in the wins and dips to 1.50 in the losses.
A big part of the turnover woes in Fresno State’s losses has come in the passing game, where the Bulldogs have averaged two interceptions thrown in the four losses.
They average nearly 14 more pass attempts per loss than they do in wins. So if the Bulldogs move the ball on the ground, they will not need to put it up.
The RedHawks have a stout defense and have been stingy against the pass and the run, ranking in the mid-30s nationally in both departments. When Miami University struggled in games, though, they got tormented on the ground.
In the seven wins this season, they have limited opponents to just 85 yards rushing. In the six losses, that number rockets to 185 per outing.
Offensively, the RedHawks do not have near the firepower of the Bulldogs. Miami will look to grind it out and will need to bust some explosive plays.
Unfortunately for the squad from Oxford, OH, their best playmaker on offense also might be the best WR in the transfer portal. Kam Perry averaged 23 yards per reception and was dangerous in his ability to stretch the field.
Miami will need to create some big plays to pull off the win. Fresno State is among the best in the nation at limiting big plays, allowing just 34 plays of 20+ yards.
This one figures to be a tight game, and field position may be at a premium. Ball security could be huge, as a timely turnover could flip the field in an instant.
The RedHawks are also very good at forcing errors, with 20 turnovers created this season, but unlike the Bulldogs, they don’t give it away nearly as often.
This one will stay close, but I don’t think Miami will have enough offense, and Fresno State will get the win.
Outright winner: Fresno State
Against the spread: Fresno State
Points Total: Under
No. 25 North Texas vs San Diego State
Saturday, December 27
2:45 PM PT, ESPN
University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Lowell Galindo, Aaron Murray, and Lauren Sisler
Line: North Texas -3
Over/Under Total: 54.5
The Mean Green owns the nation’s most potent offense, averaging the most points per game in the country at 44.8 points per contest. The Aztecs are limiting opponents to just 12.5 points per game, the fifth-lowest scoring defense in the country.
UNT gets a big lift in the fact that, as of now, Drew Mestemaker plans to play in the bowl game before entering the transfer portal in January. And most likely, he will follow his old coach, Eric Morris, to Oklahoma State.
Morris will not be on the sidelines, as Drew Svoboda will assume the head coaching duties, but I don’t expect the potent offense to miss a beat.
North Texas has done a good job in pass protection, allowing just 1.39 sacks per game. San Diego State has been dominant up front, getting to QBs 2.67 times per game and limiting teams to 109.7 rushing.
Chris Johnson and the Aztecs’ secondary will be tested. Wyatt Young is a big-play threat for North Texas at wideout. If the Aztecs can get pressure on Mestemaker, it will throw off the timing based passing attack for UNT.
North Texas has struggled to stop the run and that is the strength of the Aztecs offensive attack.
Lucky Sutton should have plenty of room to run. If SDSU can force some three-and-outs from the UNT offense, the Aztecs can really lean on the ground attack to wear out the Mean Green defense.
SDSU has allowed just 28 scrimmage plays of 20+ yards this season, the second-fewest in the nation.
If they can take away the big play from the Mean Green, they should be able to limit the high-powered offense and allow their own ground attack to control the pace of play.
I think the Aztecs pull off the upset, providing a jumping off point for the 2026 season.
Outright Winner: San Diego State
Against the Spread: San Diego State
Over/Under: Under
