For more than two years, Colleen has been stuck in construction purgatory.
She has the land, finances and contract to build — but finding tradies who can do the work is another story entirely.
"I sold my property in December 2020 and signed the contract for the house around the same time," she says.
"I've only got a roof on the top floor. They haven't even done the back."
At first, a shortage in bricklayers set the project back by "about seven months". Now it's a lack of "roof carpenters and chippies" that's sent timelines spiralling.
Unable to get clear answers as to when her new home will be complete, the Perth-based FIFO worker has resigned herself to staying in her friend's garage, where she's been living since her build began.
Amid an acute national shortage of skilled labour, Colleen is far from alone.
Your quick guide
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What's causing labour shortages? While the loss of international workers during the pandemic exacerbated Australia's skills shortage, industry and advocacy groups say too few people are completing apprenticeships to meet forecast growth and replacement long-term.
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What trades are in the most demand? An acute shortage of bricklayers, carpenters and roofers was reported last year, but Master Builders Australia says demand remains high across all trades.
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How did we get here?
The loss of international workers during the global pandemic has brought Australia's labour and skill shortage into focus.
However, the need to increase the number of apprentices going through the pipeline to meet forecast growth in the building and construction sectors is hardly a new issue.
"I think that, certainly, the list of events that we've all gone through, globally and as a nation, has exacerbated the issues that have been brewing for some time, but we're in a perfect storm really," National Apprentice Employment Network chief executive Dianne Dayhew says.
"Completion rates of apprentices have been around the 50 per cent mark for a number of years, so that's been an issue that has been contributing to that churn of labour in the construction sector."
It's a multi-faceted issue, ranging from low wages and job insecurity to unrealistic work expectations, with shortages affecting all areas of the building and construction industry.
Master Builders Australia chief executive Denita Wawn says it was clear that, prior to the pandemic, "we simply would not have enough skilled people to meet the demand that is necessary for the population growth we'll see over the next 10 years".
"It's been exacerbated by the pandemic, because of the border closures, although it was positive to see the support of apprenticeships and additional funding," Ms Wawn says.
"As such, we saw a growth in numbers, but still not sufficient enough to meet the short-term and medium-to-long-term demand."
In practical terms, it means wait times for tradies are not expected to improve any time soon, even as some material shortages start to ease.
"I was speaking to a builder only yesterday, who was a medium-sized employer, who said they would pick up 30 carpenters in a heartbeat, tomorrow, just to complete existing jobs, let alone tender for new jobs," Ms Wawn says.
"They are no longer tendering at the moment for work, simply because they don't have the amount of people that they need."
Where are some of the workforce shortages?
For some Australians trying to build or renovate, these wider workforce challenges have had crippling flow-on effects.
"I'm paying more now than what I would be if I had a mortgage, because my construction loan has now gone up to 6 per cent," Colleen says.
"That's going to be $1,600 or $1,700 a month and I've still got to pay rent.
"They just keep extending my contract … I can't get a forecast."
Since late 2019, construction vacancies have risen by 80 per cent, according to the 2022 Arcadis Construction Costs Index Report.
More recently, industry groups have pointed to an acute shortage of bricklayers, carpenters and roofers, in particular, although all trades remain in high demand across the country, Ms Wawn says.
"It's very, very unusual for the West Coast to be having a building boom at the same time as the East Coast," she says.
"But, during the pandemic, with people not travelling, but still being fairly secure in their jobs for the most part, we saw a huge amount of building going on across the country and, as a consequence, that labour movement that we normally have from east to west simply could not occur.
"That, combined with border closures — and not being able to bring people in from overseas — has really seen the problem across the board."
It's the 'luck of the draw' getting a tradie at the moment
When Colleen returns to Perth after every FIFO stint, she visits the site where her completed house should be standing.
It was supposed to be a base to come home to. Instead, she "can't even go onto the block and do anything".
"There's other houses with the company that [are] going up — and they're a good company, they do good work — but I keep saying, 'Why is my house on the backburner?'" she says.
According to Ms Wawn, it's "unfortunately the luck of the draw at the moment".
While volume builders completing similar homes in a similar area would ordinarily bring in the "30 odd trades" required to do the work "in one hit", Ms Wawn says the current skills shortage means "we simply cannot do that process".
"And it's far more ad hoc and, therefore, it is, unfortunately, luck of the draw at the moment," Ms Wawn says.
"It normally takes about nine months to build a normal residential home, it's taking up to 12 months, simply because we're not able to schedule the timing as consistently as we would liked to have pre-pandemic."
When will things improve?
According to the 2022 Arcadis Construction Costs Index Report, released in August, there will be more than 100,000 unfilled roles in construction in Australia this year alone.
"This will be almost 50 per cent greater than the number of people who are expected to be qualified to fulfil them," the report notes.
Master Builders Australia estimates about 477,000 workers — including 200,000 in trades — will need to enter the building and construction industry over the next 4.5 years to meet forecast growth and replacement.
However, with wider apprenticeship completion rates hovering around 55 per cent, it's expected that as many as 350,000 people would need to start training, just to hit that trades target.
"Supply of labour and apprenticeships are the bedrock of the construction industry, and have been forever in a day," Ms Dayhew says.
"So we need to ensure that the foundation of that industry is secure."
Ms Dayhew points to the need for greater support for apprentices and their supervisors, particularly during the formative years of their training, although there's no "silver bullet" to improving completion rates, she adds.
Any prospective solutions will also take some time to filter through to the workforce, with apprenticeships taking about four years to complete.
"There's a delay and that's something where we have to kind of go back in time to see, 'OK. What's happened to the apprentices that started four years ago? Where are they?'" she notes.
"It does take some time to build up the momentum of qualified trainees, and the first two years of going through an apprenticeship are really vital."
For those, like Colleen, who are stuck in limbo, all that's left to do is wait and hope.
She'd hoped to be in her new home by Christmas. However, as the silly season came and went, she accepted it might be closer to April.
"But I don't even know if I'll be in by then now," she says. "That'll be the 2.5-year mark."
