MID-YEAR BUDGET UPDATE
Before we get into anything, can we take a moment to acknowledge the tremendous news that a Bluey feature film is set to hit cinemas in 2027.
“I’ve always thought Bluey deserved a theatrical movie. I want this to be an experiential event for the whole family to enjoy together”, creator Joe Brumm said in a Disney press release. My eldest daughter is thrilled, the rest of us will be spending two years bracing for the experience.
Anyway, back to business. The mid-year budget update is upon us and Guardian Australia says Treasurer Jim Chalmers’s announcement today will show “the federal budget’s position has improved by $200 billion over the six years to 2027-28 on the pre-election economic update delivered in the final weeks of the Morrison government”.
However, the site adds the government has been “tempering expectations” on the state of the budget with an anticipated deficit set to be announced following recent surpluses. In a statement, the treasurer claimed the budget position is “cumulatively $200 billion better than what we inherited, even with some slippage as a result of global uncertainty and unavoidable spending on things like veterans’ payments and Medicare. Despite growing pressures … the mid-year update will show a big improvement in the bottom line since the election.”
The Australian Financial Review reckons the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) will show the budget moving from a $15.8 billion surplus last financial year to a deficit of more than $28 billion for 2024-2025.
The AAP says today’s update will show gross debt is $177 billion lower in 2024/25 than what was forecast at the pre-election economic outlook, representing a saving of around $70 billion in interest costs over the decade. A total of $14.6 billion of additional savings will be flagged, as well as $8.8 billion of “unavoidable spending”.
The newswire quotes Finance Minister Katy Gallagher having a go at spinning the numbers with: “While our predecessors racked up a trillion dollars of debt with not enough to show for it, we’ve improved the budget bottom line by $200 billion while also delivering a tax cut for every taxpayer and energy bill relief to every household.”
Meanwhile, shadow treasurer Angus Taylor said the update will show the Albanese government had driven the budget “off the cliff”, Guardian Australia flags. Taylor said the Coalition would use different energy, housing and manufacturing policies to rein in spending if elected.
The Australian Financial Review has other news on Chalmers, reporting the treasurer has vowed to keep pursuing higher taxes on superannuation accounts worth more than $3 million. The paper reports he has also been “playing down adopting new revenue measures, such as curbing negative gearing, to address yawning budget deficits”.
The AFR has quite the focus on Chalmers this week and also flags he jumped on comments by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton yesterday regarding energy prices.
During a visit to the marginal seat of Boothby in South Australia, Dutton claimed electricity prices would be 44% cheaper under the Coalition’s energy policy compared to Labor’s. Unfortunately, the controversial and much-debated analysis created for the opposition actually tries to suggest its policy would be 44% cheaper, not bills.
“This is worse than a gaffe. It’s worse than a lie,” Chalmers said. “Peter Dutton’s nuclear fantasy will push electricity prices up, not down.”
VANUATU QUAKE
Australia is deploying assistance to Vanuatu after a 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck on Tuesday.
AAP said it was not yet clear how many people have been injured or lost their lives in the natural disaster due to telecommunications failures, while the ABC cited local media and the United Nations in reporting that at least six people had died.
The Guardian reports a state of emergency has been declared on the Pacific island after the quake damaged numerous buildings in the capital Port Vila. The UN estimates 116,000 people have been affected.
In a joint statement, Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong and acting Pacific Minister Matt Keogh called the quake a “dreadful tragedy”. “Australia stands with the people of Vanuatu … we are family and we will always be there in times of need,” the pair said.
“Early reports indicate that significant damage has occurred. The Australian government is preparing to deploy immediate assistance, including urban search and rescue and emergency medical teams.
“We are closely monitoring the situation and stand ready to provide further assistance to the people of Vanuatu as the extent of damage becomes clear.”
The BBC said the quake triggered landslides with buildings and vehicles flattened. Among the buildings damaged was a complex housing Western embassies, including the US embassy, British high commission, French embassy and the New Zealand high commission.
The Sydney Morning Herald said the status of the Australian high commission was unclear, but sources confirmed nobody had been injured there.
The Australian flags Wong telling Australians in Vanuatu, a nation of 80 islands, who are in need of assistance to contact the emergency consular team.
Caretaker Prime Minister Charlot Salwai declared the state of emergency on Tuesday evening and said a curfew would be imposed in the worst affected areas for seven days, The Guardian flags.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE…
A council in America has asked people to stop sticking googly eyes on its statues after spending hundreds of dollars having them removed.
Sky News reports the city of Bend, Oregon, wrote on social media: “While the googly eyes placed on the various art pieces around town might give you a chuckle, it costs money to remove them with care to not damage the art.”
Bend’s communications director, Rene Mitchell, said the eyes had to be removed to prevent any damage from the adhesive, claiming $1,500 has already been spent taking them off.
She said some of the artwork had required treatment and may need repainting.
“We really encourage our community to engage with the art and have fun. We just need to make sure that we can protect it and that it doesn’t get damaged,” she said.
Residents on social media called for the eyes to be left on the statues, with one saying: “We love the googly eyes. This town is getting to be so stuffy. Let’s have fun!”
Say What?
We must do things because we can do them well, and not do things just because we can. And if there is change that needs to be made, then we shouldn’t be afraid of making those changes.
Hugh Marks
The new ABC managing director speaks to The Australian.
CRIKEY RECAP
Half of you are already preparing a subscription-cancellation email, but it’s the same as when we named Tony Abbott a decade ago. Peter Dutton is a devastatingly effective opposition leader. Sure, he has no credible policies, his political persona is one steeped in racism and hatred, and his primary business model is about fostering division and grievance. But that has left him with, according to the estimable William Bowe’s BludgerTrack poll compilation, a big primary vote lead over Labor, a small two-party preferred edge, and the momentum strongly in the Coalition’s favour.
We thought about the biggest shitstorms this year and who was behind them. We weighed up who punched (up) above their weight, plus whose handiwork left a lasting impact. And front of mind: who had fun (and showed flair) doing it? You can read more about our rationale here.
Yesterday we revealed those ranked 10-8. Today, congratulations to those ranked 7-5.
The critique of where the Democrats — who are deeply flawed and misguided, but essentially rational — went wrong is the easy part. Fighting through the miasma of Trump’s chaotic, exhausting rhetoric and style to get to what his second term looks like is difficult. Given his temperamental inability to stay civil with his colleagues long enough to actually govern, there is an argument that it won’t be as bad as he promises — will his frat-boy road movie pairing of Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk’s succeed in stripping US$2 trillion from America’s already groaning public services? Will Kash Patel truly close down the FBI and reopen it as “a museum of the deep state”? It seems unlikely.
The real terror is the irrevocable stuff that could happen very quickly — the “dictator for day” stuff, the “One rough hour, and I mean real rough” for “criminals” that Trump promises. We know from experience that these are promises on which, directly or indirectly, he can deliver.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Alan Jones to face court on indecent assault allegations (The Sydney Morning Herald) ($)
Ukraine kills Russian nuclear general in Moscow scooter bomb attack (The Telegraph)
Teen girl’s motive unclear in Wisconsin Christian school shooting (Reuters)
Pope says he was almost assassinated in 2021 but British intelligence foiled plot (The Guardian)
Gaza ceasefire talks in final stage, Palestinian negotiator tells BBC (BBC)
How OpenAI hopes to sever its nonprofit roots (The New York Times) ($)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Hugh Marks is the new managing director of the ABC. Is he the right person for the job? — Denis Muller (The Conversation): This might indicate a desire on the part of the ABC board to inject a more popularising approach to its entertainment content.
Williams has shown himself to be an activist chair, particularly in editorial matters, so perhaps there is an understanding that Marks will focus primarily on wider content strategy and corporate management. But the fact remains that when he takes over in March 2025, Marks will become the ABC’s editor-in-chief.
From the outside it looks like an odd appointment. But Williams is a change agent, and it may be safely assumed this is part of the new direction he has sketched out for the ABC, the ultimate destination of which remains difficult to discern.
There is faith in humour — Pope Francis (The New York Times): As for the danger of narcissism, to be avoided with appropriate doses of self-irony, I remember the one about the rather vain Jesuit who had a heart problem and had to be treated in a hospital. Before going into the operating theatre, he asks God: “Lord, has my hour come?”
“No, you will live at least another 40 years,” God replies. After the operation, he decides to make the most of it and has a hair transplant, a face-lift, liposuction, eyebrows, teeth… in short, he comes out a changed man. Right outside the hospital, he is knocked down by a car and dies.
As soon as he appears in the presence of God, he protests: “Lord, but you told me I would live for another 40 years!” “Oops, sorry!” God replies. “I didn’t recognise you.”
