What we learned; Tuesday 9 May
After a disrupted budget cycle (because of the election, and Labor’s October budget last year) the 2023-24 budget landed when it should, on the second Tuesday in May.
See the whole budget in graphs here, or build your own news coverage here.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers kept some tricks up his sleeve for budget day, promising millions more bulk-billed GP appointments, a lift in the Jobseeker rate, rent assistance and more.
Lenore Taylor asked if the voters will keep faith with Labor treading the line between helping the vulnerable and fiscal restraint.
Low-cost loans for double-glazing, solar panels and other energy savers will help more than 100,000 households, while there’s $2bn for hydrogen projects.
Here’s how cartoonist Fiona Katauskas saw the 2023 federal budget.
There’ll be more budget nuggets in the days to come, but here are some non-budget stories from today:
Melbourne tower residents won $5m compensation over the Covid lockdowns.
A man who died at a NSW retreat after using Kambo frog toxin was ‘blue in the face’, the inquest heard.
And John Farnham has staged yet another comeback - he’s made a full recovery after contracting an infection in hospital for a tumour removal.
We’ll be back at sparrow fart to bring you more detail on today’s revelations, and a bunch of stories you don’t even know about yet.
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Some of what Mike Bowers has had his eye on today:
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Jonathan Barrett has taken a closer look at the books:
Here’s what the budget papers say about one of the “fiscal risks” facing the government – the implementation of the nuclear-powered submarine program:
On 14 March 2023, the Australian government, alongside the governments of the United Kingdom and the United States of America, announced the optimal pathway for the nuclear-powered submarine program for Australia under the Aukus trilateral security partnership.
The cost of the nuclear-powered submarine program is expected to be approximately $9bn over the forward estimates and between $50bn and $58bn over the medium term [10 years]. Overall, the cost of the nuclear-powered submarine program is expected to amount to around 0.15% of annual GDP per year, averaged out to 2054–55.
In the 2023–24 budget, the Australian government has agreed a number of measures to support the initial implementation of the nuclear-powered submarine program, which are detailed in budget paper no. 2. The total costs associated with the program will not be known until design and production processes are settled and commercial and other arrangements are finalised between governments and delivery partners.
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Here’s the full speech from treasurer Jim Chalmers, in all its unadulterated speechiness:
Too long, didn’t read? The fabulous Rafqa Touma has you covered:
More on the treasurer’s interview with Sky News:
Chalmers says the government has considered in the budget the need for greater infrastructure from the substantial uptick in migration. He cites the tax breaks for build to rent properties, as well as the housing future fund. However, he emphasises in the grand scheme of things Australia still hasn’t recovered the ground lost during Covid when it comes to migration numbers.
On whether the budget has done enough to keep investments in Australia, Chalmers says the government wants to make the most of the transformational opportunities that come with net zero. He cites the Hyrdrogen Headstart announced in this budget as part of how Australia will fit into global supply chains:
We’re watching what the Americans are doing and we’re working out how we can be beneficiaries, not victims of that massive amount of investment that’s going in the US.
Chalmers also said the $1.9bn committed over five years for Australia’s Pacific neighbours will be a “crucial investment” to get the relationships back on an even keel.
“We want our near neighbourhood to be peaceful and prosperous and stable and secure. And we’ve got a role to play in that. The budget reflects that.”
The treasurer ended the interview again defending why the budget will not be inflationary:
The key reason why this budget is carefully calibrated to address cost of living pressures rather than add to inflation is because we’ve worked out where the cost of impressions are the most acute - out of pocket health costs, energy and rent - and we’ve provided some responsible assistance in each of those areas to put downward pressure on prices.
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Just in case you haven’t got through all the budget papers yet (the Guardian Australia office has a towering pile), Rafqa Touma has taken a peek in the corners:
Community and Public Sector Union welcomes budget measures
In the closing stages of the stakeholder press conferences in the press gallery, Melissa Donnelly, the national secretary of the Community and Public Sector Union, said it was a good budget for the public sector.
She said the budget added 10,800 public sector jobs, which would make a difference to people who depended on public services. Donnelly said additional resourcing for the National Disability Insurance Agency would help shorten waiting lines, while important biosecurity measures would be rolled out in the agriculture portfolio.
Veterans’ affairs would also get a boost to better provide services to veterans.
But Donnelly said Services Australia urgently needed a resourcing increase, too.
Kelly O’Shanassy, head of the Australian Conservation Foundation, stepped reporters through “the good, the bad and the timid” of the budget. On the timid front, she said the government wasn’t investing enough in tackling the extinction crisis.
O’Shanassy said the ACF wanted the government to invest $2bn a year for 30 years, which she said may sound like a lot but was “six times less than the government has committed to nuclear submarines”.
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Too much budget barely enough? Feeling the firehose? Guardian Australia has a bespoke option for you: Choose the federal budget topics you’re interested in to create a feed of budget news tailored for you…
More reactions to budget from business, seniors and GPs
AiGroup chief executive, Innes Willox, called the budget “fiscally prudent”, but wasn’t too stoked about it for business. He claimed the budget “missed the mark” on boosting business and investment, saying there was “nothing of note” on productivity, innovation or job growth.
Willox noted many measures to assist households but “not much for business at all”, critical of cuts to business investment and grants programs.
Andrew McKellar, chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the budget gave a “credible way forward”. He claimed the government had benefited from “a considerable slice of good luck” but spoke of “tangible progress on budget repair”.
Ian Henschke, of Seniors Australia, spruiked “lot of good news” from the budget for older people, noting boosts to rent assistance, jobseeker and energy bills that would help seniors. Henschke welcomed savings from supporting people to stay at home not go into aged care, which was one of the biggest savings in the budget.
Henschke called for the government to further boost a program that lets pensioners work more hours without losing their pension payments, saying the government would actually make money by expanding that program.
Nicole Higgins, president of the college of GPs, called the budget’s Medicare updates “a game changer for GPs”. She said the measures further valued general practice, making it a more attractive career for doctors, and that GPs would use the incentives to offer more bulk billed appointments.
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There was surprisingly little about defence spending in the treasurer’s budget speech, but Daniel Hurst took a … deep dive? Upped periscope? Anyway, here are some more details on the defence spend:
Budget is a ‘change of direction’ from neoliberalism: expert
Dr John Falzon, of the Per Capita thinktank, said it “takes a long time to turn neoliberalism around”:
But tonight we have seen a change of direction - modest in its making but let us hope bold in its trajectory.
Falzon welcomed measures such as consigning the punitive ParentsNext program “to the dustbin of history”:
All of these measures signal a turning away from neoliberal vandalism. We must encourage the government to continue on this path.
Falzon said the “gaping hole” in the budget was the inadequate increase in jobseeker rates, which permitted the persistence of poverty and put young people “at risk of losing hope”. He added:
Tonight we have seen a very modest and very inadequate step in the direction of addressing this urgent, desperate need.
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Some more from those earlier interviews with treasurer Jim Chalmers.
Chalmers said the $159m dedicated for politicians’ electorate staff came after the dispute between Sally Rugg and Monique Ryan “shone a light” on the heavy workload of political offices.
This is in recognition of the really quite extraordinary workload that the offices are under. We have seen well publicised court cases,.
Asked if the budget measure was in response to the Sally Rugg dispute Chalmers said “not entirely, but that really shone a light.”
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Travel industry blasts decision to raise fees for travellers
The travel industry has blasted the government for hiking fees for travellers in the budget, suggesting the $10 hike per passenger will zap $520m from the tourism sector.
From 1 July, the passenger movement charge will increase from $60 to $70 per passenger leaving Australia. The charge applies to foreign tourists and locals alike, regardless of their plans to return to Australia.
Dean Long, Australian Federation of Travel Agents’ chief executive, said the decision to increase the fee is “extremely disappointing and will make it harder for Australians families to stay connected”. He issued a joint statement with the Tourism and Transport Forum and the Australian Accommodation Association condemning the hike, saying:
In the three years prior to the pandemic, the PMC collected on average $811m more than needed to fund the biosecurity requirements to keep the community and agriculture sector pest free. The government is now demanding an additional $200m for next year which is unwarranted and not appropriate especially in the current environment.
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'You can't eat a surplus': budget a betrayal of people doing it tough, Greens say
The Greens leader, Adam Bandt, told reporters the budget was “a betrayal of renters, jobseekers and people doing it tough”:
Labor’s budget leaves millions behind with people stuck in poverty while billionaires get tax cuts.
(That’s a reference to the stage-three tax cuts remaining in the budget.)
Bandt said rent assistance wasn’t rising as fast as rents were rising. He warned the government not to take the Greens’ support for granted when the parliament considered the bill to amend the petroleum resource rent tax (which the Greens say is inadequate).
As Bandt delivered one of his key lines – “a surplus doesn’t help you pay the rent” – the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, happened to be walking past the press conference in the press gallery, racing from his ABC interview to his Sky News interview.
The Greens’ Treasury spokesperson, Nick McKim, added:
You can’t eat a surplus.
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Chalmers has brushed off the suggestion that he’s missed an opportunity this budget to make bolder decisions on capital gains tax, trusts and the stage-three tax cuts, as economists Danielle Wood and Chris Richardson had urged. He said:
We’ve got a tax reform program in this budget which is a meaningful one. Multinationals, high superannuation balances.
He says these will make a difference to the structural position of the budget:
No government that I can remember has made such a big difference to the structural position of the budget than we did tonight. We banked that upward revenue surge. We had tax reform and we found $18bn of savings. You know how much savings were in Josh Frydenberg’s last budget? Zero.
$40bn over two budgets, remarkable spending restraint, meaningful tax reform has improved the structural position of the budget and it let us forecast the first surplus in 15 years.”
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Want graphs? Greg Jericho has brought you the budget numbers in all their visual glory:
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been speaking with Sky News.
We’ve heard a lot of criticism from the Greens on the surplus not going to helping Australians in the cost-of-living crisis. Chalmers said the surplus eventually will mean the government can help those doing it tough:
That’s been a good thing, not as an end in itself. And not even just because we avoid a lot of debt and a lot of debt interest payments, but also because if we can get the budget in a much more sustainable position, then we’ve got the room then to do the things that we want to do for people, especially people doing it tough, but also to invest in more and better opportunities for more people, and invest in the future of the economy.
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ACTU welcomes lift in wages and cost-of-living support
Michelle O’Neil, the Australian Council of Trade Unions president, has welcomed boosts to wages as really important. She said the government was acting on its mandate to “get wages moving”, and also welcomed the cost of living package.
O’Neil said there had been a historic investment in Medicare and bulk-billing, and noting the energy bill relief, said there were many parts of the budget that were “essential” for working people.
Patricia Sparrow, chief of older persons’ advocacy network the Council on the Ageing, welcomed the rent assistance and jobseeker rises – especially for older Australians on those payments. She also backed the Medicare reform, including increasing incentives for bulk billing, saying many older people had reported they couldn’t afford to go to the doctor.
Steve Robson, president of the Australian Medical Association, was surprised but pleased at the bulk-billing changes – saying the AMA had only been calling for a doubling of the incentive, not the tripling they received.
He said this “had to be a healthcare budget”, and that he was glad the government had listened. Robson said it would make it much easier for GPs to offer bulk-billing; he described the budget as having a number of “great strong first steps”, but said there was “a long journey” with “plenty to do”.
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Budget only offers ‘crumbs’ to struggling young people, National Union of Students says
Bailey Riley, president of the National Union of Students, said young people would be left extremely disappointed by the budget. She noted the rise to jobseeker and youth allowance, plus rnt assistance, but said it was “crumbs”. Riley said young people on the payments were still “living far below the poverty line”, and were “being left to fend for themselves”.
Kylie Walker, chief executive officer of the Australian Academy of Technology and Engineering, said the budget had a “welcome investment in infrastructure”, especially around clean energy – but that there was a “disappointing drop” in government research and development in clean energy tech. She said for Australia to become a green energy leader, there needed to be more R&D funding, and warned of workforce shortages in that sector.
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Josh Butler and Daniel Hurst are bringing you despatches from the “boxes” – for those who are not unadulterated politico-nerds, the boxes used to be sort of post boxes for the press gallery, where you’d get alerts and so on. Now it’s where all the spokespeople and stakeholders gather to give their verdict on the budget.
Chalmers tells the ABC’s David Speers the $40 a fortnight raise to jobseeker is “largely” owing to the fact this is all the government can afford:
We think we’ve struck the right balance between what we can afford and taking into consideration the economic pressures in the economy.
The budget stills suggests there will be further increases in electricity prices of more than 10% in the coming year. However, Chalmers is defending the government’s intervention which he says otherwise would have been 36%.
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Some early reactions from Greens leader, Adam Bandt. Fair to say he’s not a fan:
Labor’s second Budget is a betrayal of people who were promised that no one would be left behind.
— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) May 9, 2023
Budgets are about choices. Labor is choosing a surplus over supporting people who were counting on them.
Labor is leaving millions in poverty while the wealthy and big corporations win big.
— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) May 9, 2023
Back to 7.30 again, and Chalmers says the eligibility for energy bill relief will be largely people who are on pensions and payments, people who are already eligible for state programs and people of family payments. However, he emphasises eligibility will differ depending on which state you are in because of the different deals with each governments:
More than 5 million people will get money off their winter electricity bill.
Chalmers says he will make sure the relief is provided on the bill level – working with retailers.
Read more here:
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Tonight’s budget has mixed reviews from the higher education sector.
Universities Australia chief executive Catriona Jackson said it “strikes a balance between cost-of-living relief and fiscal repair”, welcoming modest increases to welfare payments for students struggling with financial pressures.
Yet she noted research funding remains at its lowest level as a share of gross domestic product on record and now sits at 0.49% of GDP as Australia continues to slide down the international order:
We welcome funding for new university places and additional clinical placements to support the education of the highly skilled workers our economy and communities can’t function without.
This is a good start, but greater support for universities would make the task of building a better economic future for all Australians easier because we are a good return on investment, and we drive the productivity the economy so desperately needs.
The Independent Tertiary Education Council Australia (ITECA) says it wasn’t surprising Chalmers has taken a “cautious approach” to higher education spending, with the Universities Accord review into the sector not being handed down until the end of the year.
But chief executive officer, Troy Williams, says more could have been done to support students, noting the commitments to $127.3m for 4,000 additional commencing commonwealth supported places across sector are for courses that support the skilling requirements of the Aukus nuclear submarine program.
Meanwhile, the National Union of Students has described it as a “slap in the face” for the 3 million struggling with student debt, noting it made no move to abolish indexation or raise the minimum repayment threshold:
Students won’t just stand by while Labor screws over ordinary people. We’re going to fight this budget for the rich on the streets across Australia.
Here are the key measures for the university sector in tonight's budget, as per @uniaus pic.twitter.com/QQ0TK6Lvub
— Caitlin Cassidy (@caitecassidy) May 9, 2023
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Jobseeker increase not enough to keep people out of poverty, Acoss says
The line of stakeholder groups responding to the budget one by one has begun in the press gallery hallway.
Cassandra Goldie, the chief executive of the Australian Council of Social Service, is one of the first up.
She says the budget includes some welcome measures, including support for single parents, increases to aged care wages and extra support for bulk-billing. Goldie also praises the support to retrofitting homes with energy upgrades such as solar panels, saying at present wealthier homeowners are the ones who have been able to afford such energy upgrades.
But there is a big “however”. Goldie says the jobseeker increase isn’t enough, and the payment will keep people in poverty and is among the lowest in the OECD:
Tonight we will still have over 1 million people who will not know if they can feed themselves three times a day.
Goldie vows to continue to campaign for an adequate increase to keep people out of poverty. Asked whether she is concerned the increase in tonight’s budget will be the last one, Goldie says she is not, because the adequacy of jobseeker remains a “live” issue within government ranks:
I think within the government there are many people who want to see change and do want to see an adequate increase to jobseeker.
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Chalmers is continuing to defend the extra spending:
Some that is unavoidable legacy spending left to us by our predecessors. Unfunded ongoing programs.
Some of it is the cost-of-living package, but energy bill relief which will put downward pressure on the inflation forecast because it makes people’s bills lower than they otherwise would be. The combination of our gas and coal caps with our energy bill relief is expected to take three-quarters of a per cent off the inflation forecast.
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Chalmers hails the government’s “historic restraint” for the surplus:
This is an historic turnaround in the budget which wouldn’t be possible were it not be for the historic restraint that we’ve shown in banking 82% of the upward revision in revenue... We wouldn’t be within cooee of a forecast surplus if it was not for the responsible economic management that we have shown.
Back to 7.30 – Jim Chalmers has denied the budget is making the central bank’s job harder:
We’re making the job of the independent Reserve Bank easier by taking seriously this inflation challenge. Big investments in the supply side of the economy, responsible economic management, banking 82% of the upward revision to revenue and also making sure the cost-of-living package is delivered over time and in the most responsible way.
The reason why there is spending 2023-24, is because there are a whole bunch of ongoing programs that we had to fund and Covid liabilities as well. The structure of our small business package and a little bit of the cost-of-living package is in 2023-24.
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Warning: Depressingly, but unsurprisingly, there are already scams doing the rounds:
I’m hearing that scam texts like this are being sent tonight - don’t click on any links in texts messages. Any message from MyGov will be in your MyGov inbox. pic.twitter.com/SrwtGQUQEy
— Stephen Jones MP (@StephenJonesMP) May 9, 2023
Budget changes are ‘modest but meaningful’, Chalmers says
Just wrapping up that earlier press conference:
Paul Karp asked Chalmers how they decided that $40 a fortnight for jobseeker and bumping the over 55s into a higher band was the best approach. Chalmers said:
We’re trying to work out a way to provide cost-of-living relief … in a way that doesn’t blow the budget. I think we’ve struck a good balance here.
Gallagher added that women over the age of 55 are now particularly vulnerable (to homelessness, poverty, and so on).
Next, the treasurer was reminded that he had said he would have some tough conversations about the budget, and asked if he has avoided that. He said:
It felt like a pretty serious conversation when I was changing the tax breaks on superannuation. It felt like a pretty serious conversation changing the arrangements for the PRRT.
He described the changes as “modest but meaningful”.
Another question: will he have to take a bigger revenue agenda to the next election?
I’m here to hand out a budget with my mate here, not to announce an election policy. We’ve made quite remarkable progress [but] we’ll need to take difficult decisions in the future as well.
On that 15% increase to rent assistance, Chalmers said he understands that people will be calling for more. He was also asked about the flow-on effect, whether it will just see landlords pushing up rents. “We have low vacancy rates and high rents for a whole bunch of reasons that don’t include rent assistance,” he said, adding that increased supply is the answer.
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Treasurer Jim Chalmers is up now on ABC’s 7.30 with David Speers. We’ll bring you the highlights as they happen.
Those pesky stage-three tax cuts came up for the first time in the lockup presser. Treasurer Jim Chalmers was asked why they are “Voldemort” – that is, verboten to be talked about. He says that’s not the case but that they’re “an old decision, legislated some time ago” (which will not stop them being discussed any time in the near future). They’ll cost about $69bn over the forward estimates, he said:
The way we’ve approached this in the budget is entirely consistent with standard budget practice. They were legislated some time ago. They wouldn’t ordinarily be itemised.
Asked if it’s “absurd” that the government will then have to borrow more to pay for the cuts, Chalmers said the deficits would now be smaller than previously expected:
Our job is to try to get the budget on the most sustainable footing that we can. We’re making really good progress but nobody here … pretends it’s mission accomplished.
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I mentioned the women’s budget statement earlier. Finance minister Katy Gallagher, who is also the minister for women, said many of the same issues have been brought up in the statement since the 80s, but that she “has no doubt that the investments in this budget will change the lives of thousands of Australian women”. “You’d be hard pressed to go back and find a budget that tries to do more,” she said.
Just back to the speech for a sec, Natasha May captured this little moment:
As Chalmers announces the pay rise for workers in the care sector, the minister for aged care, Anika Wells, and early childhood education minister, Anne Aly, share a moment. pic.twitter.com/GArJVELLCG
— Natasha May (@natasha__may) May 9, 2023
Another strong theme is how sensible they were to “bank” most of the extra revenue they pulled in through the rise in commodity prices, combining budget repair with budget restraint. They wouldn’t have come “within a cooee” of a surplus if they hadn’t, treasurer Jim Chalmers said.
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Chalmers has talked quite a bit about the balance between helping the vulnerable while not being inflationary … but there’s another fine line he’s treading.
There were a few questions in that press conference about what’s in the budget for middle Australia. His line is that there’s a lot for them there, if you look at all the policies together such as cheaper childcare, more bulk-billing, cheaper medicines, and so on:
I don’t agree with the sense that there are swathes of middle Australia missing out here. There’s a lot in there for middle Australia.
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Budget required ‘a series of finer balances to be struck’
So, while we were all cut off from the world, our phones cruelly detained and our internet cut off, we trundled in to a press conference with treasurer Jim Chalmers and finance minister, Katy Gallagher. Yes, there were PowerPoints. Yes, many of the points from his speech were repeated. But it’s also the first change the members of the press gallery get to, well, press.
Chalmers started off saying people should think about the budget in five parts: cost of living; medicare and the care economy; inclusion and equality; the growth from industrial opportunities, energy, tech; responsible economic management. He said while their October budget “made a good start”, this budget was “a much harder task with a more complicated combination of challenges that has required a series of finer balances to be struck”.
“It’s still burdened by persistent structural pressures as well,” he said.
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And Lenore Taylor has cast a steely eye over the budget, and the help within, which is “spread widely and a bit thin”:
Paul Karp has pulled together all the highlights of today’s budget:
Jim Chalmers has announced a $5.7bn investment in Medicare and an increase in jobseeker and commonwealth rent assistance for all ages as the centrepieces of Labor’s first full-year budget aimed at helping Australians “under the pump”.
As the treasurer heads to the ABC studios, I’ll bring you some of the highlights from the Guardian Australia team. Elias Visontay has put together this neat summary of the winners and the not-so-winners:
And he’s done, lots of standing applause from the very friendly crowd.
Now the grilling will begin. Questions will be asked, and sometimes ducked and sometimes answered.
I’ll bring you some highlights from the press conference that Chalmers held alongside finance minister Katy Gallagher while we were in lockup. We’re also keeping an eye on him as he does the rounds of the ABC and other stations – first stop is the traditional 7.30 quizzing. And we’ll keep digesting, interpreting and translating this 2023-24 budget for you.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers is wrapping up his speech now with some soaring rhetoric:
122 years ago today, the federal parliament first met … called to serve a new nation on an ancient continent, created by a vote of the people. Today Australia is bigger, fairer, more diverse, more open to the world and more engaged with our region than anyone alive at federation could possibly have imagined.
And yet what brought this country together was a belief that the future could belong to Australia and that we would be stronger, safer, and more prosperous if we worked to seize its opportunities and share its rewards. A commonwealth of common purpose. That optimism and resilience has sustained us – and carried us – through downturns and disaster, through recession and pandemic. And the belief in opportunity fairly shared has underpinned our greatest achievements – from Medicare to superannuation.
The same spirit underpins constitutional recognition through a voice, it drives our government, and it shapes this budget. A determination to tackle the big challenges – and seize the big chances. A deep faith in our people, their skills, their smarts, their innovation and aspiration. A plan for security, for prosperity, for growth.
An economic strategy to help with cost-of-living pressures now – And to maximise and extend the opportunities of the future to more of our people in more parts of our country. In the defining, decisive decade ahead. For all these reasons, I commend this bill – and this budget – to the house.
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The search for the ‘savings’
Part of the fun of the budget is ferreting out the “savings” (sometimes more accurately described as “cuts”). We already know about some – there’s the tightening on superannuation tax concessions for those with balances of more than $3m, a 15% minimum tax for big multinationals, the toughening up of the petroleum resource rent tax, and an increase on cigarette tax. The team is now going through to find the sorts of “savings” that don’t necessarily make it into the treasurer’s speech or the media releases. Stay tuned.
Chalmers says:
[The] inescapable truth is that the federal government cannot put all the services that Australians expect and deserve on a more sustainable footing by ourselves. That’s why the prime minister has brought together the states and territories to agree on a new, cooperative approach so, we can secure the future of essential services and programs that both levels of government support, and so we can make sure that the NDIS continues to provide life-changing outcomes for future generations of Australians with disability.
Under Labor, the NDIS is here to stay. We are determined to make sure every dollar counts and every dollar goes to improving the lives of the participants the scheme was established for. Our changes are designed to put the interests of participants first, as we cooperate to moderate growth in costs.
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Now the treasurer is on fiscal strategy
He says 82% of extra revenue windfall from “lower unemployment, stronger jobs and wages growth, and higher prices for key exports” has been returned to the budget (rather than being spent), he says.
“We’ve also found $17.8bn in savings and redirected spending … and limited annual real spending growth to just 0.6% over 5 years,” he says.
Combined with their last budget, he says, they are now “forecasting a small surplus” (about $4bn) which would be “the first in 15 years”. But don’t get carried away. There’ll be a $13.9bn deficit next year, although he says overall the deficits will be lower than previously thought, with a $125.9bn improvement over five years.
Gross debt to GDP is now expected to peak at 36.5% of GDP in 2025-26, saving billions in interest on that enormous national debt. Chalmers says:
We’re expecting one of the biggest turnarounds on record while dealing with a whole host of programs and services that were left without ongoing funding.
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Budget has $1.9bn for Indigenous health, housing, employment and education
There’s $1.9bn for First Nations health, housing, employment, and education, and a $250m for a package for central Australia. There’s a bit here that will take a bit more digging, such as $200m for “funding place-based partnerships”, better coordination for government and philanthropy, etc. More to come, as they say.
Chalmers says:
Alongside financial support for Australians in need, we’re also investing in new programs to tackle entrenched disadvantage. Putting our trust in the knowledge and passion of locals to break the chains of intergenerational poverty.
I see it in my own community: library programs unlocking the world of learning, sporting clubs building pride, community groups mentoring young people into apprenticeships. Breakthroughs and progress, driven by locals and leaders.
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The budget’s women’s statement
The crowd erupts when Chalmers says:
We’re the first government in Australia’s history with a majority of women in our ranks.
There is a women’s budget statement – it’s a funny old thing that waxes and wanes and sometimes feels like a treasury boffin just made a salad with every policy that has to do with workforce participation and families.
Chalmers says “we know equality for women is not an add-on, not a nice-to-have – it’s crucial for our prosperity”.
He lists some previous policies, and says there is also a “new focus on workers in the care economy” including cheaper early childhood education and better paid parental leave. There’s $72.4m to retain and recruit more early childhood educators, $590m for the plan to end violence against women and children, and the abolition of the ParentsNet program in favour of a voluntary system to support mothers prepare for work.
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Aukus will deliver 20,000 high-skilled jobs: Chalmers
While we’re throwing billions about willy nilly, on to the Aukus agreement. Chalmers didn’t actually mention the eye-watering cost could creep up to $368bn by the mid-2050s, but he had some other numbers.
The program will provide 20,000 high skilled jobs, he says.
The budget also has $3.7bn for skills agreements with the states and territories, and 300,000 fee-free TAFE spots.
There will also be more government-supported uni places – we’ll bring you more details on that in a bit.
While we’re on defence and foreign affairs, $1.9bn will go towards strengthening Australia’s relationships in the Pacific, and there’s $64.1m to get rid of the veterans’ claims backlog.
On small business, Chalmers says they’ll increase the $20,000 instant asset write off, and help small businesses invest in power-saving assets and to adapt to digital technology.
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Boost for renewables tech, AI and creative sector
Chalmers says there’ll be “targeted investments in green industries, as well as in technology and other value-adding areas”, including a new Powering Australia Industry Growth Centre to help Australian businesses manufacture renewable technologies, funding to support the growth of quantum computing and AI, and $286m of investment in our creative sector.
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Now we’re on to ‘making Australia a renewable energy superpower’
The budget has $2bn for a “Hydrogen Headstart” program “so Australia can be a world leader in producing and exporting hydrogen power – while reducing our emissions in heavy industry here at home”.
Chalmers says:
Hydrogen power means Wollongong, Gladstone and Whyalla can make and export everything from renewable energy to green steel. Seizing these kinds of industrial and economic opportunities will be the biggest driver and determinant of our future prosperity.
Then there’s $4bn to “realise our future as a renewable energy superpower”, a range of new funds, on top of the safeguard mechanism to “encourage business to invest in the path to net zero”.
Updated
Biggest ever boost to bulk billing, Chalmers says
GPs will be able to bulk bill about 11.6 million Australians thanks to a $3.5bn boost, tripling the bulk billing incentive. Chalmers says it’s the biggest increase ever:
[Right] now, too many people are finding it more and more difficult to see a doctor. The costs are too high, the wait times are too long, and the consultation is too short.
Families are being forced into a lose-lose choice between getting the help they need or paying their bills. This robs parents of peace of mind; it puts families under strain. It means more problems go undiagnosed or untreated. And it means our workforce is not as healthy or productive as it could be – and should be.
There’ll be funding for urgent care clinics, better cooperation between doctors and other health practitioners, more scope for pharmacists to deliver vaccinations. Chalmers says:
All of this will help take pressure off our public hospitals and emergency departments, still feeling the strain of a once-in-a-century pandemic. And it will ensure that for millions of people, the quality of your healthcare is guaranteed not by your credit card – but by your Medicare card.
Updated
Chalmers is also talking about the government’s social housing bill, which it is trying to shepherd through the parliament. You can read all about it here:
Aged care workers to get pay rise, Chalmers says
The government has already announced an expansion to the single parent payment so people are eligible until the youngest child turns 14, instead of 8; giving them an extra $176.90 a fortnight – this overwhelmingly affects single mothers.
And, Chalmers says, rent assistance will go up by 15%, meaning $31 a fortnight. There’ll also be a new tax break for “build-to-rent” projects to help boost the existing plan to build 1m new houses over five years.
And Chalmers is now talking about the boost for aged care wages:
The prime minister has said it many times – the heroes of the pandemic deserve more than our thanks; they deserve fair pay for their vital work. I am proud our budget provides $11.3bn to fund a 15% increase in award wages, for more than 250,000 aged care workers.
This pay rise will help retain, reward and recruit the hard-working people who care for our loved ones as they grow old. And the message from our government to the aged care workers of Australia is simple: you deserve every cent.
Updated
All people, not just over-55s, to get welfare boost
Chalmers is now announcing the $40 a fortnight jobseeker increase. At a cost of $4.9bn, it will also help those on youth allowance, Austudy and other payments. There was somewhat of a brouhaha over a leak suggesting those over 55 would get a boost, while younger people would miss out. That’s not quite the case, but there is an extra perk for those aged 55 to 59 – if they’ve been unemployed for more than nine months they’ll get an extra $92.10 a fortnight to bring them into line with those aged 60 and older. Chalmers says:
Until now, people aged 60 and over and on payments for a long time have received a higher rate, in recognition of the additional barriers they face finding work. But the truth is, it gets more difficult earlier than that. The majority of people aged 55 and over on JobSeeker are women, many with little to no savings or superannuation, and who are at risk of homelessness. So tonight, we’re extending the extra support for those aged 60 and over to include Australians aged 55 and over – more help for some of the most vulnerable in our community.
Updated
Cost-of-living package at heart of budget gives $40 a week welfare boost
And now on to the cost-of-living package, the centrepiece of this budget. That $14.6bn package over four years has to do a lot of work; bringing down power costs, health costs, and housing costs, while boosting wages.
Chalmers says there will be up to $3bn to help households and small businesses with power bills – more than 5m households will get up to $500 off next financial year.
There’s that $1bn to help “provide low-cost loans for double-glazing, solar panels and other improvements that will make homes easier – and cheaper – to keep cool in summer and warm in winter”.
In health, $2.2bn will help people access cheaper medicines, in many cases getting two months’ worth for the price of one.
Updated
The Treasurer chooses to foreground health, disadvantage, and clean energy:
[The budget] delivers historic investments in Medicare and the care economy, making it easier and cheaper for Australians to see their doctor.
It broadens opportunity by breaking down the barriers of disadvantage and exclusion.
It lays the foundations for growth by embracing clean energy and investing in value-adding industries, people, skills, technology and small business.
And it strengthens the budget, with a surplus forecast for this year with less debt and smaller deficits compared with recent budgets.
His opening remarks are met by “hear hears” from his Labor colleagues.
Updated
Chalmers says budget is ‘carefully calibrated to alleviate inflationary pressures’
Chalmers is outlining the (by now familiar) economic headwinds – soaring inflation is at the top of the list. Australia’s economic growth will drop from 3.25% this year to 1.5% next year. Although unemployment will remain historically low, it will rise from 4.25% next year to 4.5% the year after.
He says the budget is “carefully calibrated to alleviate inflationary pressures, not add to them” and will knock .75% off inflation next year, while wages growth will go up .25% to 4%. The treasurer says:
This combination of lower than expected inflation and higher wages, means that an earlier and stronger return to real wages growth is forecast for 2023–24.
Updated
Treasurer unveils bulk-billing boost and slender surplus in federal budget
The papers have been tabled, the embargo lifted, and treasurer Jim Chalmers has just started his budget speech in the house.
As always, while there is much ado about the lock up and the need to keep everything secret until this specific moment, we did already know quite a bit.
We knew about the $14.6bn cost of living package, the slender $4bn surplus, the extension of the single parenting payment until the youngest child turns.
There has been a lot of pressure on the government to “raise the rate” of JobSeeker, and Chalmers has, by $40 a fortnight. You could call that a burger and a milkshake raise, depending on where you live. There’ll also be a 15% lift to rent assistance. Other new nuggets include:
A $3.5bn boost to bulk billing that will help GPs provide free consultations to around 11.6 million eligible Australians.
$2bn for a new hydrogen power program, so Australia can be a “world leader in producing and exporting hydrogen power”.
$1bn in “low-cost loans for double-glazing, solar panels and other improvements that will make homes easier – and cheaper – to keep cool in summer and warm in winter”, on top of direct energy bill relief of up to $500 for eligible households and up to $650 for small businesses.
The Guardian Australia team will shortly let you know how that will work, and who will benefit.
Chalmers says the government has sought to “strike a considered, methodical balance”:
Between spending restraint to keep the pressure off inflation, while doing what we can to help people struggling to make ends meet. Making sure vital services like Medicare and the National Disability Insurance Scheme are secure, reliable and sustainable. And dealing with immediate, near-term challenges, while investing in our long-term national success [and] seeing our people through the hard times, and setting our country up for a better future.
In Canberra, Paul Karp, Josh Butler, Daniel Hurst and Greg Jericho are fossicking through the papers for gold while Mike Bowers is out looking for gems of picture opportunities.
In Sydney, editor Lenore Taylor is presiding over the crack team comprising Anne Davies, Adam Morton, Elias Visontay, Jonathan Barrett, Rafqa Touma and Peter Hannam. And of course all our behind-the-scenes gurus, who often save us from humiliating misadventures, are there.
Read Paul Karp’s full report here:
Updated
Chalmers handing down federal budget
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, has stepped up to speak in Canberra unveiling the Albanese government’s first full-year budget.
We do already know some of the budget measures which the government has previously announced. My colleagues in Canberra have summarised those here, if you need a refresher:
We’re so close now. So close. It’s T-minus 10 minutes until the Treasurer emerges.
Meanwhile the Greens continue to criticise the Albanese government for its surplus while so many are struggling at the moment. Dorinda Cox is taking a slightly more subtle approach than her colleague Penny Allman-Payne.
The Budget Tree has turned Labor red for @JEChalmers Federal #Budget2023. While the tree is undeniably magnificent, I don’t expect I’ll be calling the budget that.
— Senator Dorinda Cox (@dorinda_cox) May 9, 2023
Surpluses don’t mean much to those living below the poverty line. pic.twitter.com/l41pHgbL2T
(Allman-Payne’s tweet for those who missed it earlier:)
Every dollar of budget surplus is a dollar not spent on lifting people out of poverty.
— Penny Allman-Payne (@senatorpennyqld) May 9, 2023
It doesn't help anyone.
There’s nothing responsible about leaving people behind. So... 👇 pic.twitter.com/wrup5iEWuI
Scammers are attempting to take advantage of budget night with false offers of cash handouts from the government.
Guardian Australia has seen the text message which pretends to be from MyGov and says:
Eligible individuals can receive a one-time payment of $750 to help with their living expenses.
The budget has yet to be handed down but already scam SMS message about applying (click this link) for a fictitious $750 cash handout for one and all are starting to arrive in peoples' inboxes. Be aware!
— Captain Nemo's Left Sock. 🐕 311.1 ppm. Vote YES. (@RuncibleH) May 9, 2023
It’s less than an hour to go until the treasurer unveils the budget and my colleagues are let out of the lock up, and can share all the juicy budget details with you.
Behind the scenes of the Budget lockup… Not long to go now @JEChalmers! pic.twitter.com/DMYwmWeVlS
— Katy Gallagher (@SenKatyG) May 9, 2023
If you’re still slightly mystified by what exactly goes on in the budget lock up, Amy Remeikis takes you behind the scenes in this video:
Updated
Although there’s speculation there could be movement on commonwealth rent assistance in the budget, Bandt says “at the moment, the government does not seem to understand how serious the housing and rental crisis is.”
Asked whether his party’s negotiations with the government on the housing Australia future fund are ongoing or completely stalled, Bandt has accused Labor of “playing politics instead of seriously negotiating.”
The Prime Minister even said he is OK about the building voted down and he will go to the next election campaigning on it. That does not sound like a government that is serious about negotiating to improve its housing bill so that real money starts to flow now for housing, not after the next election.
You’ve seen the Greens in the parliament prepared to work with the government in good faith and negotiate on legislation and find a place to meet in the middle.
At the moment, the Government is more interested in playing politics and they should not put this bill to a vote before those discussions have concluded.
Updated
‘We are in a crisis and a surplus does not help you pay the rent’: Adam Bandt
The Greens leader does not believe the treasurer should be congratulated on the budget surplus. Instead, Bandt says the $4bn surplus should be redirected to helping Australians through the cost of living crisis:
Under Labor, people are sleeping in their cars and tents but the budget is in surplus.
One in six children in this country are in poverty but Labor is crowing about delivering a surplus.
Every dollar of a surplus is a dollar less to lifting people out of poverty.
We are in a crisis and a surplus does not help you pay the rent. A surplus does not put food on people’s table.
A dollar that goes to surplus is a dollar that should be spent lifting people out of poverty and deal with the cost-of-living crisis.
Updated
Bandt says welfare payments won’t drive inflation – ‘massive profits’ will
Greens leader Adam Bandt is continuing to call on the government to use tonight’s budget to lift the most vulnerable Australians out of poverty. He told Afternoon Briefing earlier that it’s not welfare measures that are adding to inflation:
Giving people who are doing it tough a bit of extra money so that you can put a banana in your kid’s lunchbox is not what is driving inflation.
If the government really wants to take inflation, tackle rising power bills. Tackle rising rent.
Look at the massive profits the banks and these big corporations are making off the back of people’s pain.
Updated
What decisions would you make?
It looks like David Pocock has been enjoying our interactive which allows everyone a chance to step into Jim Chalmers’ shoes.
It’s #Budget2023 Day.
— David Pocock (@DavidPocock) May 9, 2023
What decisions would you make in the budget? 💰💰💰
You can have a go here:
https://t.co/HsB78YTVn2
If you’re looking for a way to pass the hour and a half we still have to go before the budget is unveiled, be sure to have a go yourself:
Updated
Aboriginal Legal Service: ‘Locking up children causes ongoing harm for them and their families, and the whole community.’
Karly Warner, CEO of the Aboriginal Legal Service (NSW/ACT), said in a statement locking up children in jails is harmful, does not work and disproportionately impacts Indigenous children.
We have abundant evidence that locking up children causes ongoing harm for them and their families, and the whole community ... Let’s be clear: by failing to raise the age to 14 urgently and without exception, the ACT government is failing Aboriginal children.
The ACT imprisons Aboriginal children at 12 times the rate of non-Indigenous children. It’s Aboriginal kids and families who will be most harmed by the government’s refusal to fully accept the evidence.
In a release yesterday, the ACT government said the tiered stages to raising the age will mean they can add further reforms and support for young people.
The two-stage approach will allow the government to implement the reforms in relation to children aged 10-11 initially, allowing the alternative service system to be rolled out for all young people, before applying these reforms for 12 to 13-year-olds.
Updated
ACT to become first Australian jurisdiction to raise age of criminal responsibility to 14
The territory has tabled a bill today to lift the age from 10 to 12, before finally increasing the minimum age of criminal responsibility to 14 in July 2025.
Currently children can be locked up from the age of 10, with the exception of the NT, which recently increased the age to 12.
But Aboriginal legal groups and human rights organisations have expressed dismay at the staggered approach in increasing the age, saying experts agree that vulnerable children will still be caught up in the justice system.
Updated
What will independent senator David Pocock be looking for in the budget?
He’s told Afternoon Briefing he will be particularly interested in whether the government prioritises cost-of-living relief. He is particularly concerned for the flow-on effects for young people in areas like mental health, with many unable to afford treatment.
Pocock also says he’ll be looking out for what’s in the budget for small businesses.
He says despite the news of the one-off surplus, he’ll also be interested in how the government is addressing the long-term structural deficit.
Updated
Cheating services complaints more than tripled in a year
The Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency (TESQA) annual compliance report, released on Monday, confirmed it received 432 concerns about commercial cheating services in 2022, a “significant increase” on the 137 reported in 2021.
TESQA said the jump reflected “increased engagement from the higher education sector on the threat posed by these services”, commonly known as contract cheating.
In addition to blocking 150 cheating websites last year, it also began two investigations to gather evidence for civil proceedings against two entities suspected of providing academic cheating services.
These investigations are supported by detailed evidence collected by providers as part of their own investigations into academic integrity matters. This work will continue into 2023.
TESQA also received an “unprecedented” number of notifications relating to cyber-security incidents, including serious data breaches leading to unauthorised disclosures of personal information and ransomware attacks, pinned to the “highly valuable repositories” of research and intellectual property in the higher education sector.
Updated
University regulator received complaints about almost half of all registered higher education providers last year
The Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency (TESQA) annual compliance report, released on Monday, reported 305 concerns about registered higher education providers across 88 institutions, a jump on 289 reported in 2021.
The most common complaints related to the delivery and teaching of courses, student services and student learning environments. Seven were related to sexual assault and harassment.
Its review into academic integrity found a “failure to take adequate action” when misconduct was identified, poor documentation and “opaque practices” for adjusting marks, particularly from fail to pass grades, as well as a lack of systemic recording of academic integrity breaches.
It also confirmed it had engaged with 22 universities over alleged underpayments of casual staff following TESQA’s first concern about wage underpayments in the sector raised to the Fair Work Ombudsman in 2022.
Most universities have now undertaken, or are undertaking, comprehensive reviews of their payroll practices, improving processes and implementing contemporaneous record-keeping systems.
As a result of complaints, 13 conditions were imposed across seven providers last year, and 14 conditions were imposed on course accreditation.
Updated
‘Budget will deliver for those most in need’
Meanwhile, with just a little over two hours till showtime, the government is spruiking the budget, saying it will deliver for Australians most in need.
Tonight’s budget will deliver a stronger foundation for a better future for all Australians. pic.twitter.com/3lsCqN4XR8
— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) May 9, 2023
Tonight’s budget will deliver for those most in need, make our tax system fairer & improve the quality of policy evaluation. I’m pleased to have had the chance to work with Katy Gallagher & Jim Chalmers - serious reformers with big hearts. #Budget2023 #auspol @AustralianLabor pic.twitter.com/FFlIbtgvkR
— Andrew Leigh (@ALeighMP) May 9, 2023
Updated
Penny Allman-Payne: ‘Every dollar of budget surplus is a dollar not spent on lifting people out of poverty.’
Greens senator Penny Allman-Payne isn’t on the same page as the finance minister, Katy Gallagher, who just said the surplus was a “good story for the country”.
Allman-Payne says the surplus money should be spent on lifting Australians out of poverty and she’s made her thoughts about the surplus pretty clear in this tweet …
Every dollar of budget surplus is a dollar not spent on lifting people out of poverty.
— Penny Allman-Payne (@senatorpennyqld) May 9, 2023
It doesn't help anyone.
There’s nothing responsible about leaving people behind. So... 👇 pic.twitter.com/wrup5iEWuI
Updated
Hume on what ‘set this government up for the future’
Circling back to Hume a moment, who is defending that premature 2019 decision to order the “Back in Black” mugs.
It was there. I mean, it was there for all to see in the Myefo [mid-year economic and fiscal outlook] papers of 2019. And thank heavens it was because otherwise we wouldn’t have been able to tackle Covid the way we did, come out the other side with that growing economy, and very, very low unemployment. And that’s really what’s set this government up for the future.
Hume says the problem is that the Albanese government is not capitalising on the winning position the Coalition has left them in, instead reverting to Labor’s “natural instinct to tax and to spend”.
Updated
Labor confirms increase to welfare payments in federal budget
No one works harder in budget week than the treasurer’s staff who do everything they can to eke out every single bit of good coverage for the budget they can possibly manage ahead of the budget embargo lifting, when journalists have access to all the information and they can no longer control the narrative.
Like this embargoed release of information from the treasurer’s office which was timed for 5pm when the first of the news bulletins goes to air.
What’s in it? Nothing much in terms of actual detail.
The cost of living package which will become clear in just over two hours from now will contain assistance for renters, increases to jobseeker, Austudy and youth allowance and more eligibility for the single parenting payment, but we can’t tell you how much or who.
Inflation will be forecast to be lower than it was in the October budget, but again, no detail on what the forecast is.
The only actual tidbit – gross debt is predicted to peak five years earlier and less than it was forecast in October because – you guessed it – of Jim Chalmers’ plan to put money away rather than spend it.
The budget will show because of the government’s commitment to return most revenue upgrades to the budget, gross debt is projected to be almost $300 billion lower by the end of the medium term (2033-34), saving $83 billion in interest costs over that period.
This scant level of detail is intentional – it means good headlines on the nightly news ahead of the budget’s release which is after they go to air.
We will have all the ACTUAL detail for you when the embargo lifts, including what is missing.
Inflation the ‘great thief in the night’, Hume says
Hume says the Coalition fears the expenditure side of the budget could be hijacked by “the great thief in the night” – inflation.
What we are afraid of now is that the expenditure side of the budget is not under control.
What we want to see – the real test for Jim Chalmers – is not delivering a one-off surplus, but as a sustained surplus into the future.
Because that is the way that you can grow the economy and also rein in inflation which is the great thief in the night right now – eroding people savings, eroding their purchasing power and reducing the standard of living. That needs to be the number one priority of this government bringing inflation back under control.
Updated
Jane Hume: Coalition paved way for budget benefits
The shadow finance minister, Jane Hume, is brushing off any suggestion the Coalition is jealous of the Albanese government’s surplus.
She’s told Afternoon Briefing the government is benefiting from the legacy of the previous Morrison government:
Let’s face it, we have had soaring commodity prices, we have increasing inflation and it is creating bracket creep so the take from income tax has been so much higher than anticipated.
And largely that is because of the very low unemployment that was the legacy of the last Coalition government that this government has been able to take advantage of.
So we would expect to see a surplus from that soaring windfall revenue.
Updated
Gallagher’s three budget hopes
Gallagher says she hopes Australians take three things from the budget:
I hope people see they have a government that cares deeply about how we look after people who need an extra hand, how we invest in opportunities of the future and that we manage their money through the budget in the best interest of the country.
If they are able to see that through all of these decisions – even though there will be bits people like and don’t like and think we should have done more of, and think we should have done less of – those three things for me are really important and I hope that is reflected in people’s views on the budget after they had the opportunity to read it.
Updated
Asked how she would pre-empt any criticism from the opposition on unwinding the measures they fought for, Gallagher says:
There is no world where you just say ‘we continue doing everything and we load in new spending on top of that.’ That is unsustainable.
Taylor’s comment ‘reflects poorly on him’, Gallagher says
Gallagher has hit back at the shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor’s quip that a drover’s dog could have delivered a budget surplus, saying the comment “reflects poorly on him” considering his government did not deliver one out of nine.
Updated
How does Gallagher think Australians will receive the news of the budget surplus when so many are feeling the cost-of-living crunch?
I would hope that people see that the news of the budget being in better shape is welcome because I think that is good. We need to make sure we are a good spot when the next emergency comes at the budget is able to respond to it.
Updated
Budget surplus 'a good story' but government isn't celebrating: Gallagher
Earlier the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, told us the government isn’t ordering any Back in Black mugs. The finance minister, Katy Gallagher, also isn’t getting ahead of herself despite the big news overnight of a predicted budget surplus.
She’s told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing, “I don’t think it is a matter of celebrating,” saying the government has its eye on the “long term”.
The upward revisions to revenue and the improved bottom line is good. But it is a good story for the country because a budget is about investing in the future of our country and supporting people who are doing it tough.
I think they expect their government to manage their budget responsibly and that is what we have sought at the outset to do with the budget where we can make sensible investments, we do that and also have our eye on the long-term.
That it is about getting the budget on a better footing so we can create the opportunities and invest in people for the future.
Updated
Good afternoon! Thanks to Amy for covering off such a big day in Canberra.
Natasha May will take you through the next little bit and Tory Shepherd will guide you through the budget reaction on the blog.
All the Guardian coverage will go live about 7.30 and will continue into the night and over the next few days.
I’ll be back very early tomorrow morning on the blog to report on all the fallout so looking forward to catching you then.
Until then – take care of you x
Updated
A moment of quiet
Things in the parliament have quietened down as everyone starts to prepare for 7.30 when the treasurer takes to the floor to deliver the budget speech.
There is no debate on the speech – it is delivered, there is a standing ovation from the government and the invited people in the public gallery. The treasurer’s family is usually given a spot to watch from the sidelines and there are photos and congratulations and then Jim Chalmers will run to the ABC studios for his interview on 7.30.
Updated
And ahead of all of us outside the budget lock-up learning what’s in it for the fixed working age payments:
re-upping my thread about the inflationary aspect of Jobseeker increases - basically none.
— Greg Jericho (@GrogsGamut) May 9, 2023
And these figures were for a $371 a fortnight increase, not $40! https://t.co/2Cv57UzYfy
Updated
Linda Burney used the last question in question time to welcome this decision:
Congratulations and thank you to the @NRL for backing the Voice.
— Linda Burney MP (@LindaBurneyMP) May 9, 2023
Recognition and listening.
That’s how we can make a practical difference & move Australia forward for everyone. #VoteYes #Yes23 #VoiceToParliament https://t.co/aiui8N0l7y
Paul Fletcher and Barnaby Joyce want to know why ministers haven’t answered questions within the 60-day time frame.
Milton Dick will get right on that.
Updated
28 questions and counting …
“After 28 questions I ask that further questions be placed on the notice paper,” Anthony Albanese says.
Not sure counting the questions when most of the questions don’t count is the best practice, but here we are.
Milton Dick reads the house the riot act about the budget proceedings, and inviting guests and to keep everyone in line for the 7.30 treasurer speech.
Updated
Oh good Dolly, this is still going.
PM: Bringing in right migrants for right jobs doesn’t mean ‘big Australia’
There is now a question from Dan Tehan and it is 20 to four and what did we do to deserve this today?
We already have to deal with the budget, do we also have to deal with this?
With Australians facing record net overseas migration of 715,000 over the next two years, why is there no plan to address the further pressure this will put on cost of living with increase rents a worsening housing crisis, longer hospital wait times and increased congestion in capital cities? How much will Australians pay for Labor’s biggest Australia policy?
SIIIIGGGGHHHHHH (screams, sobs rocks under the desk) Siggggggghhhhh
Anthony Albanese says “that was worth waiting for”.
I mean, was it?
Albanese says that there was a spike because of the pandemic – people went out but they didn’t come in, and now that the restrictions are lifted people have returned and that the plan announced by Clare O’Neil is about bringing in the right migrants for the right jobs and that doesn’t mean “big Australia”.
Updated
Labor asked about mortgage costs
The Liberal MP for Hughes, Jenny Ware, asks a question about increased mortgage costs and Anthony Albanese and Julie Collins both respond speaking about the housing future fund.
That fund is about building more social and affordable housing and doesn’t address interest rates, but this isn’t exactly answer time (nor are the questions asked wanting actual answers).
Updated
Housing minister: ‘Vulnerable Australians are relying on this bill’
The housing minister, Julie Collins, uses a dixer to talk about the housing future fund bill which is being debated in the Senate and doesn’t yet have the support it needs to pass the chamber:
I say to the members opposite and to the Greens party. Talk to your senators. Tell your senators to support this bill. The time the political grandstanding and further games is over. There are vulnerable Australians out there today who are relying on this bill to get passed so we can get more social and affordable homes on the ground for those Australians that need it most.
Updated
Chris Bowen took this question:
The PM has described climate change as the greatest threat to national security.
— Dr Monique Ryan MP (@Mon4Kooyong) May 9, 2023
Today he dodged a question about a recent report on this issue - apparently it’s ‘classified’.
What is the govt hiding from us?#auspol pic.twitter.com/B5xRqPT1YL
Updated
Labor asks ‘WHHHYYYYY’
The Nationals MP for Cowper, Pat Conaghan, asks about his constituent Robert who has seen his electricity bill increase, even though his usage has decreased. So where is the promised $275 cut to power bills (the original commitment was for 2025 but anyway) and ‘why do people always pay more under Labor’.
Anthony Albanese answers by asking why Conaghan and the Liberals voted against the $1.5bn power bill relief package and the entire Labor caucus have been prepped for this, because they all shout “WHY?”
He asks a bunch more why questions, including why the Coalition didn’t support:
The change in the single parent payment
The safeguard mechanism
The housing future fund
The manufacturing fund
Increasing the minimum wage
Cheaper medicines
Fee-free tafe places
And after each question the Labor MPs yell “WHHHYYYYY” until Allegra Spender rises to ask about conduct of the house.
I don’t see that this as orderly conduct for the parliament.
The house settles and Albanese finishes with:
Those opposite are so focused on themselves when they look at each other, they just ask themselves why indeed.
Updated
Labor on how they fund infrastructure projects
Catherine King is defending how the Labor government will fund infrastructure projects, saying “we want to make sure if we promised a project, we actually deliver the project. That is what our regions deserve. It’s what our rural communities deserve. Our cities deserve.”
But first she has to get through interjections from the opposition and takes the opportunity to give Sussan Ley a serve.
Ley’s role as deputy leader is also to be the attacker-in-chief, particularly since Peter Dutton decided he needed to soften his image. So Dutton has taken a step back (you may have seen the new glasses and the attempts to be less hardman and more thoughtful man) and Ley has stepped up.
Updated
Burke asked about wage increase for childcare workers
Allegra Spender has the next crossbench question and it is for Tony Burke:
One of your arguments for last year’s IR reform was the need to increase wages for childcare workers. Six months later, no multi-employer bargains have been completed. Childcare workers don’t have commitments to increase wages and some childcare centres in Wentworth like one I saw last week are only offering half the places are because of staff shortages. Minister, wouldn’t have it been better to fix the awards and make a difference to families and workers now?
Burke:
I’ll go through a couple of different issues that are raised. First of all, in terms of the award review which was something that the member for Wentworth fought for during the debate and was ultimately negotiated with the Senate as well as Senator Pocock. There will be there’s further discussions that are happening now about the nature of that award review.
So the review of the awards in particular in the context of the new objectives which are in the act, and those objectives go to both secure employment and to gender equality, which obviously is particularly significant for the rates of pay for people who are working as early childhood educators.
In terms of multi employer bargaining, the different parts of the act commits on different dates. The multi employer provisions haven’t started yet. So the reason why no multi employer agreements have been concluded for early childhood education is those sections of the act don’t commence until June.
What we have seen though is exactly what I predicted in the sense that immediately we have seen a whole lot of employers come back to the table on individual enterprise agreements with their workforce, workplace by workplace and that will result and our preference is always if you can get into if you can get individual workplaces, negotiating and having those agreements in place. That’s always the best option, but the problem has been in a whole lot of feminized sectors. That hasn’t worked.
That’s why we needed to open up the rules for multi employer bargaining. They commencing June. So right now we’re in a phase where we’re seeing a really serious acceleration in the number of negotiations that are happening for enterprise agreements. And I expect the moment that the laws start to open up in June, that’s when we will logically see an increase in the engagement with multi employer bargaining.
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The ABC has moved away from the question time broadcast and onto normal news which is not particularly helpful when you are running a live blog, but we persist.
PM asked about government’s reliance on big consulting
Zoe Daniel, the independent MP for Goldstein, has the next question from the crossbench:
The government has been told consulting firms are tailoring advice to get more money instead of giving frank and fearless advice for the nation. What is your plan to address the inner conflicts of interest between government and big consulting to shut down this obscene use of billions in taxpayers money and enable public servants to be frank and fearless?
Anthony Albanese:
One of the things that we have done as a government is to reduce what we regarded as an over-reliance on consultants.
We have made sure and you will see in tonight’s budget, that contrast which is there and making sure that we have put on additional public servants to deal with the challenges that we have with the backlog in visas of 1 million people.
To make sure that we deal with issues in government services, which of course were dropping off the shelf, if we had not have extended funding for services beyond the 30 June they were due to end.
We make sure, as is reflected tonight as well that indicated to the public service by every single one of my ministers going not just talking to the secretary apartments but the whole departments. Encouraging ideas to come up, that frank and fearless advice, to come to government so as we go forward we maximise the respect and capacity of the public service. I do that personally as well, on any occasion when I visit the UK. We had a meeting with the high commissioner for all of the staff at the high commission, the staff who work in defence, who work in home affairs. The staff who work in immigration. The staff who work in trade. The staff who work in foreign affairs and a medic advice as well. It is to me, common … that if you treat people with respect you will get better outcomes. We also have the same approach towards their income and treating them with respect when it comes to proper negotiations between the government and public service through their union to make sure that that respect is shown as well. The former government did receive some advice about the issue that has come to light when it comes to the Tax Practitioners Board and indeed the measures that whether from a review into the tax practitioners board. It was given to the government of the day in 2019. Like so much else, nothing happened. My government is committed to implementing the recommendations of that review.
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UK free trade agreement will have deflationary effect on economy, PM says
The UK free trade agreement will come into effect from 31 May. Anthony Albanese spoke a little more on that in a dixer:
It also will make it easier for Australians to work in the UK. Raising the working holiday visa age from 30 to 35 and increasing the maximum stay to three years instead of two. It will eliminate tariffs on imports from the UK, this will reduce cost to households and businesses. It will of course therefore have a deflationary impact on our economy.
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Also Scott Morrison still hasn’t announced his resignation.
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Mike Bowers delayed heading into lock up to capture Mary Doyle being sworn into the parliament:
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Plibersek responds to Littleproud’s question on land-clearing
The current leader of the National party, David Littleproud, breaks from the theme of the day to ask about land-clearing:
How many hectares of remnant vegetation will be cleared for the … renewable projects which have received or are awaiting your ministerial approval?
Which is lol-worthy because the Nationals want more coalmines opened and more coal fired power stations built (and also nuclear) and do they think that those projects float above the land with no land clearing?
Tanya Plibersek takes the question and talks about renewable energy which upsets Littleproud, who just wants a number, but because he mentioned renewable energy, under the standing orders Plibersek can talk about the 101 renewable energy projects she has on her desk for every second of her three minutes (and she does).
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‘Just say, “I wasn’t here, it wasn’t my fault, it all went wrong”’: PM’s advice to LNP’s Zoe McKenzie
The LNP MP for Flinders, Zoe McKenzie, has the next non-government question, and it is the same as the others (you may be noticing a bit of a theme to today’s questions from the opposition):
A family with a $750,000 mortgage is now paying $1,723 more every month compared to May 2022 because this government hasn’t taken any action to reduce inflation. Why do Australian families always pay more under Labor?
Anthony Albanese:
When it comes to pressure on inflation, one of the things that a government can do is to make sure that when it hands down a budget, it’s fiscally responsible. And tonight, you will see the government that I am proud to lead and its response and compare it with what the Coalition.
To be fair [to] the member for Flinders, she wasn’t here to see, quite frankly, the debacle that occurred towards the end of their long office of the Morrison as well as Abbott and Turnbull governments, where we saw the law of diminishing returns, to use an economic term for the benefit of the deputy leader [Sussan Ley].
We saw that in place, absolutely. But of course, today, the cash rate is 3.85%. When this bloke [Peter Dutton] was assistant treasurer, it was 6.75%. What is larger? 6.75 or 3.85?
You don’t need an economics degree to work that out. What my government is doing on inflation is making sure, unlike those opposite, who of course poured fuel on the inflation fire in last year’s budget, after inflation, I remind the member for Flinders that inflation[’s] highest jump this century was in the last quarter of March 2022.
… I will give the member for Flinders some unsolicited advice. Just say, “I wasn’t here, it wasn’t my fault, it all went wrong.” Because since then, it has gotten better. Because this government, when we had revenue bonuses come in last year, we saved, we saved 99%.
We put it towards the bottom line. Those opposite, under the government of the law of diminishing returns, the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government, they saved 40%, which, to be fair, was more than the Howard government ever did, more than the Howard government ever did, and you will see tonight again what a responsible government looks like.
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PM highlights wage increase for care workers in response to cost-of-living question
The LNP MP for Fisher, Andrew Wallace, asks Anthony Albanese:
The cost of living crisis under this government is crippling Australian families. David from Meridan Plains in my electorate (Sunshine Coast) contacted me recently to say that he and his wife are trying to support their family of five by working five jobs between them. Working seven days a week. Why do Australian families always pay more under Labor?
Albanese:
I send my regards through him to David, his constituent. And his partner. And the many Australians who do work damn hard in this country … One of the things that you can do, of course, to improve people’s situation is to get wages moving again.
It’s one of the things that we have been determined to do. And that was recognised by the RBA governor when he said wages growth is stronger than it was a few years ago which is a welcome development.
… During the pandemic we spoke about people who were the heroes of the pandemic, looking after our older, vulnerable Australians … one of the things that we said we would do is not just give them our thanks, but we said they deserved a wage rise to be better off.
And when the member for Lilley was giving that response about the more than $11 billion that will be in tonight’s budget for people in the aged care sector … When we talk about people who are doing it tough, I can’t think of any group who are more deserving in our society and aged care workers. The cleaners, the carers, the orderlies, the nurses.
But increasing wages makes a difference.
… Mike Baird, former New South Wales premier … said this: We are incredibly appreciative the federal government has contributed to the increase awarded by the Fair Work Commission and delivered on it. It’s truly welcome. He of course is the chief executive of HammondCare.
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Monique Ryan asks about climate change security risk report
The independent MP for Kooyong, Dr Monique Ryan, has the first of the crossbench questions:
During the last election campaign you identified climate change as the greatest threat to our national security. In May 2022, your government committed to an urgent climate risk assessment by the Office of National Intelligence to help us understand the security risk of climate change. You have now had that report since November. Why hasn’t it been released and when will we see it?
Chris Bowen:
Thank you very much and we thank the honourable member for her question and of course this government has brought a heightened degree of transparency when it comes to climate change to this parliament and to the country.
One of the most important things we have done is enshrine in law in the Climate Change Act … the climate change minister must report annually to parliament on progress against targets on all of the matters relating to climate change and policies. This is something we are proud of having done; I delivered the first climate change statement and we will deliver the second later this year.
This is a very important addition to transparency, in relation to national security. We do say that climate change is a very real and significant issue in our national security. That’s why the prime minister wanted me [on] the national security committee of the cabinet, for example – to make sure that that it is represented at our national security table.
In relation to the national security statement, of course matters that are classified information to advise to the prime minister and national security committee are treated accordingly. We brought that level of transparency and I’m happy to provide further updates from the house accordingly.
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Coalition ‘added fuel to inflation fire’: Albanese
It is Sussan Ley time!
Core inflation in Australia is higher than in countries like the US, UK and Canada and Australians are hurting. Can the prime minister, using his economics degree, explain why his government’s only answer has been to announce a series of budget measures to spend more and tax more? Why do Australian families always pay more under Labor?
SIIIGGGGHHHH.
Albanese:
I do have an economics degree, I encourage [the deputy leader of the opposition] to remind people at every opportunity. In case she was wondering, it was from the University of Sydney, and I can bring it in here and perhaps you can table it and frame it and put it up in your office.
He continues:
Because indeed, I do use it each and every day. I use it to know that indeed, inflation had taken off well before Labor took office. Indeed the largest quarterly rise this century was guess when? Guess when? March 2022. The largest rise of inflation in any quarter of the century March 2022.
That was on their watch, the last quarter they were in office. It was the starting point that my government inherited – 2.1% jump in one-quarter! If you do a bit of maths, you don’t need an economics degree, 2.1 over a quarter, times four, equals a pretty high inflation rate. A pretty high inflation rate.
And that is what they were dealing with. That is what we have had to deal with. After the election it emerged that the Morrison government had ignored Treasury warnings and it used its final budget to unleash a desperate vote buying spending spree.
They added fuel to the inflation fire. A former government source described it as ordering the entree, main and the dessert.
It was all there, all the one-off payments, the cash payments were there. Not worrying about the impact. And indeed, Australians always pay more under … The highest taxing government was the Howard government, and the second highest taxing government was Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison.
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Albanese’s ‘first question from the member for Aston’
Mary Doyle gets the first dixer and she delivers it with a theatrical flourish, which bodes well for those of us hungry for more drama in the house.
It’s a setup for Anthony Albanese to be able to say “my first question from the member for Aston” (because Alan Tudge never asked him a question).
Question time is not a serious event.
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Question time begins
Peter Dutton is on his feet – for a moment – because Anthony Albanese forgot to say that Jim Chalmers would be absent from the chamber (because of the budget) and he will answer questions on the treasurer’s behalf.
Then Dutton is back on his feet.
The prime minister promised Australians cheaper mortgages, but since the election interest rates have gone up 10 times, the fastest rise in history. The prime minister promised a $275 cut to your power bill each year before the election, but Labor’s individual in the gas market is causing prices to skyrocket. The prime minister promised families would be better off, but the cost-of-living crisis has never been worse. Why do Australians always pay more under Labor?
This just gives Anthony Albanese a chance to read a dixer answer a little earlier. And he does.
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Mary Doyle is in the chamber and is being welcomed with a speech from Anthony Albanese, who says she is “already the best member for Aston in 30 years” (the seat has been held by the Coalition since 1990).
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Commonwealth rent assistance has no effect on housing affordability, Anglicare says
There is a lot of talk about an increase to commonwealth rental assistance in the budget – but it is not the fix some people think it is, as Steph Convery reports:
An increase in commonwealth rent assistance has been mooted as a budget measure to ease the housing crisis for those on lower incomes, but Anglicare Australia has warned the payment is not “fit for purpose” and has no effect on affordability.
As a result of the way the payment is designed, rental assistance payments for nearly 300,000 people may have fallen this year as a direct consequence of the cost of living going up. Anglicare Australia’s chief executive Kasy Chambers said:
This payment isn’t really fit for purpose. Things have changed since it came in. It’s not doing what it’s designed to do. We’re spending more and more on it, but it’s not having any effect on affordability.
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Mary Doyle to be sworn in before question time
OK, question time is about to get under way in the house.
But first – Labor has to swear in its newest MP – Mary Doyle.
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LNP MPs Matt Canavan and Keith Pitt have been spotted in a parliamentary courtyard posing with lumps of coal. Pitt’s is attached to a board like a prize for bad Santa.
No sign of anyone dirtying up their faces yet, but stay tuned.
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The budget lock-up is under way. Six hours until you learn all.
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Delay vote on Deeming’s expulsion or risk legal dispute, MP warns Pesutto
Victorian Liberal MP, Richard Riordan, has written to the party’s leader, John Pesutto, calling for a delay to Friday’s vote to expel controversial MP Moira Deeming or “risk a very messy legal dispute”.
The Polwarth MP also wrote the five MPs who put their names to the expulsion motion – Roma Britnell, former leader Matthew Guy, Wayne Farnham, Cindy McLeish and James Newbury – saying it would be invalid given they did not sign it. Riordan wrote in the letter, seen by Guardian Australia:
As the member responsible for the reissuing of the parliamentary constitution to all elected members, I write to raise two issues that I think will force the cancellation of this Friday’s meeting, or risk a very messy legal dispute.
The notice of special meeting has no signatures. I have sought some independent legal advice … a motion of this gravity must still be signed by its proposers. The current notice of expulsion is therefore invalid. The constitution is quite clear, and the five proponents must reissue a compliant notice of expulsion with the requisite five clear days’ notice. Therefore, this Friday’s meeting should be cancelled as there is no valid motion to debate.
However, a spokesperson for Pesutto said the meeting was going ahead as planned.
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Major no campaigns on voice merge to form 'Australians For Unity'
The two main No campaigns in the Indigenous voice referendum are merging, in a bid to more efficiently use their resources.
Guardian Australia has also confirmed that on the eve of the budget, one of the No campaigns has withdrawn its application for deductible gift recipient status, further delaying its bid to receive tax-deductible donations.
Warren Mundine, chairman of the Recognise A Better Way group, said that his organisation would merge with the one run by conservative lobby group Advance. The new entity will be known as Australians For Unity.
Mundine said he and senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price (the shadow Indigenous minister) would remain the spokespeople for the new campaign. He said the merger came in a bid to be more efficient with resources, to avoid “competing” with each other. Mundine said it was a “very happy conclusion” to a period of negotiations, and there would be a launch event soon.
We’ve contacted Advance for comment.
But another wrinkle – Recognise had applied for DGR status, which would let them get tax-deductible donations, and we understand it was close to being granted. But Mundine also said that Recognise had withdrawn its application, and would put another application in under the new entity’s name.
That could delay their bid to get tax-deductible donations for some time further.
A Treasury department spokesperson confirmed the news to us in a statement today:
The Voice No Case Committee (otherwise known as Recognise a Better Way) submitted a proposal for specific listing as a deductible gift recipient (DGR) in the tax law in March 2023. The Voice No Case Committee contacted Treasury on 8 May 2023 to advise that it wished to withdraw its proposal.
As to whether tonight’s budget would include the DGR status for the No side, Treasury said: “Decisions by the Government on organisations that are to be specifically listed as DGRs in the tax law will be reflected in 2023-24 Budget (Budget Paper No.2).”
So we’ll give you more when we hear more later tonight.
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Greens motion to debate Hecs indexation bill fails
Back in the Senate and the Greens bid to suspend standing orders to debate its private member’s bill to abolish Hecs indexation has been defeated and the housing future fund debate has begun.
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A slight qualification on the Coalition’s support for the nature repair market. We understand the Coalition will still seek some technical amendments and the bill is subject to a Senate inquiry, but they support it.
Coalition party room previews budget
At the Coalition party room meeting, Peter Dutton praised Stuart Robert for his service to the nation and that he was encouraged by the calibre of candidates coming forward to contest Fadden for the LNP. He also praised Susie Bower, the Liberal candidate for Lyons in Tasmania – they’re starting early this cycle.
Deputy Liberal leader, Sussan Ley, said the budget won’t do anything for grocery prices, mortgages or to “sustainably” decrease energy prices.
The shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, and shadow finance minister, Jane Hume, also previewed the budget, with Taylor repeating his lines that it will put a Band-Aid on a bullet wound.
Keith Wolahan, the Liberal MP who is deputy chair of the inquiry on the constitutional alteration bill, revealed there is likely to be a majority report with the Coalition members in dissent, citing constitutional risks involved in the Indigenous Voice proposal.
On legislation:
The Coalition will support Labor’s nature repair market bill, because of its similarity to the previous government’s biodiversity stewardship bill. This means it is likely to sail through without Greens support.
The Coalition has concerns that national security legislation will expand and change the membership of the parliamentary joint committee on intelligence and security.
It also has concerns that the family law amendment bill goes further than the Australian law reform commission inquiry recommended.
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Budget lock-up to begin in less than an hour
There is now less than an hour until the budget lock-up begins and things get a little quieter.
I’m staying out of lock-up this year to keep you updated on what is going on outside with the parliament and will rejoin the team a little later. We will have all the coverage as usual live from the moment the treasurer steps up to the dispatch box and the blog will continue as well.
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The house has moved on to condolence motions. The Senate is still debating whether or not to suspend standing orders (it won’t).
There are students in the gallery watching this. The Greens Janet Rice says the government needs to take responsibility for the student debt crisis and the Greens remain opposed to the housing bill, which Rice says is “gambling on the stock market” rather than investing what is needed to make a concrete change.
Labor’s Anthony Albanese has accused the Greens of “stunt after stunt” to avoid debating the housing bill.
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Biden’s visit later in May likely to highlight tensions over Assange case: Shoebridge
The independent MP Andrew Wilkie said the recent Pentagon leaks may be “unhelpful” in resolving the Julian Assange matter, but he said the WikiLeaks founder “didn’t leak anything” but was reporting and publishing leaks from others. Wilkie noted that Chelsea Manning’s sentence was commuted by Barack Obama.
The Greens senator David Shoebridge added:
The most recent leaks of Pentagon information clearly show a lack of security controls within the Pentagon. And to punish Julian Assange for that would be an extraordinary overstep, and a misstep by the United States.
Julian Assange has never leaked a single document. Julian Assange has acted as a journalist and a publisher at each occasion. And he has committed no crime, if you can call it that, that hasn’t been committed by the New York Times, the Guardian, or publications across the world, yet Julian Assange is continuing to be persecuted by Washington, aided and assisted by the United Kingdom.
Asked if there was any chance the issue could be resolved by the time of Joe Biden’s visit to Australia for the Quad meeting later this month, Shoebridge said:
Well, I think you would be foolish not to see that there’s going to be heightened tensions and heightened concerns amongst the Australian community on this issue with the visit from President Biden. And I would hope that the United States sees this as a very real opportunity to resolve this once and for all, so that that tension can be taken off the table when President Biden visits.
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The Coalition’s joint party room briefing is under way:
#breaking the Coalition will support Labor's nature repair market bill. Derided as "green wall street" by detractors, this means it will sail thru despite Greens' opposition. #auspol
— Paul Karp (@Paul_Karp) May 9, 2023
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Julian Assange group was sometimes ‘politely blunt’ with US ambassador: Wilkie
Asked what the group’s specific request of the US ambassador was today – and whether Caroline Kennedy gave them any sense a breakthrough was imminent – Andrew Wilkie said:
I wanted to make point that the Assange group is a very diverse group. It has not just the major parties, the Greens, independents, it also has a member of One Nation. It’s a very, very broad church. And we have a range of views about Julian Assange.
The few key points which unite us [are] a belief that Julian Assange is facing a terrible injustice, that the extradition should be dropped, and he should be allowed to return to Australia. So as a group, that was the message we took to Caroline Kennedy this morning, that this injustice must be brought to an end, it has gone on long enough … the extradition should be dropped, he should be released from jail and he should be allowed to return to Australia.
Now, I will not breach any confidences as far as what was discussed. It was quite frankly, a very open, free-flowing discussion. And we were sometimes blunt, with the US ambassador – politely blunt – but I don’t want to verbal her or speak for her. I will let her offer her own views about the meeting
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State funeral offer was made to Barry Humphries’ family in ‘good faith’: Andrews
The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, says a state funeral offer for comedy giant Barry Humphries was made in “good faith” after his family opted for the service to be held in Sydney instead.
Humphries’ state funeral will be held in Sydney after the Melbourne-born actor died last month. The Andrews government had offered a state service to his family.
Speaking to reporters, Andrews said it was the family’s decision:
That’s ultimately their call.
There could be multiple opinions within that family. But that’s a matter for them and we should respect their privacy.
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The Coalition is also not supporting the suspension, which means the Greens motion will fail.
Wong accuses Greens of delaying housing bill with Hecs indexation motion
Penny Wong is speaking in the Senate in response to Mehreen Faruqi’s motion to suspend standing orders to debate the bill to abolish Hecs indexation, and saying that the Greens could have brought its bill forward at any time but has chosen now to delay the housing bill.
Her speech is focused on the Greens not agreeing with the government’s housing fund and Wong accuses the Greens of ‘voting with the Tories’.
So things have gotten off to a fairly fiery start in the senate chamber.
We just got an ETS mention – so yes, fiery.
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Move from ‘quiet diplomacy’ to speaking up about Assange has ‘elevated the issue’, parliamentary group says
[continued from last post]
Greens senator David Shoebridge said there had been a move from “quiet diplomacy” to the government, opposition leader and more politicians “speaking up plainly and clearly about the need to bring Julian Assange home”. Shoebridge said that increasingly public stance had “elevated the issue in our politics – and I think we saw an indication from the meeting we had today that it’s elevated it in Washington too”.
Labor MP Josh Wilson said “it was a good meeting and it certainly feels as if there’s some momentum, moving towards what I think most people in the Australian community would like to see, which is an end to the persecution and incarceration of Julian Assange”.
His Labor colleague, Peter Khalil, broadened the discussion by adding:
There are many Australians in this situation - I hope we can put this concerted effort in behind so many other Australians like Robert Pether in Iraq, like Cheng Lei who is in China and others, we’ve had the success of Sean Turnell being released. But this is unfortunately, something that’s happening globally. And it’s great to have the Australian parliament working together across the board, across the partisan lines on something that really matters to us and to all Australians.
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Parliament’s Julian Assange advocacy group says US ambassador meeting ‘very productive’
Members of the Bring Julian Assange Home Parliamentary Group have held a press conference at Parliament House, after their meeting earlier today with the US ambassador to Australia, Caroline Kennedy.
The independent MP Andrew Wilkie said the meeting at the embassy went for about 40 minutes. Wilkie said the group wanted the US to drop the extradition request. He said Kennedy gave the group “a very good hearing” and “allowed us to say everything we wanted to say”:
She now is much more, I think, alert to the concerns of the Australian community. She wasn’t in a position to make any commitments on behalf of the Biden administration or speak for the US Justice Department, but we are confident that she is now very much alert to the concerns of many Australians.
I hope she was quite affected by the fact that the Assange parliamentary group has members from right across the political spectrum.
Liberal MP Bridget Archer said it was “a very productive meeting” and the ambassador was “very generous with her time”. Pointing to recent comments from the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, Archer said:
There’s been a groundswell of support for this issue, even since the last parliament and the members of this committee that have grown. And we have seen even last week the opposition leader joining with the prime minister, in saying that this issue has gone on for far too long, it is time to bring this issue to a resolution and for Julian Assange to be freed from Belmarsh [prison] and to be brought back to Australia.
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Greens senator Faruqi’s motion to abolish Hecs indexation set to fail
Back in the senate, the Greens education spokesperson, Mehreen Faruqi, is moving a motion to suspend standing orders to bring about the debate on her private member’s bill to abolish indexation of Hecs payments.
That comes in from 1 June, so Faruqi says the matter is one of urgency.
But without the government or Coalition’s support, the motion will fail. And it doesn’t look like either side are supporting this.
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The house is hearing from the prime minister and opposition leader on the king’s coronation.
The Senate is speaking on the violence in Sudan.
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Labor MP for Aston, Mary Doyle, will be sworn in ahead of question time, at 2pm.
Parliament sitting begins
The parliament sitting has begun.
Anthony Albanese will start off with a congratulations to King Charles (after the prayers) and then things get up and running.
What a sentence to write in 2023.
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Labor’s social housing bill at an impasse as Greens warn government not to their take support for granted
The government’s signature housing bill still remains in peril, with the Greens still deciding they cannot support the bill in its current form.
The minor party had its regular meeting this morning, with the housing affordability future fund bill a major topic. The Greens want the bill to go much further in dealing with the housing crisis, including calling for the government to institute a national rent freeze and guarantee funding to build new social housing (the government’s bill doesn’t guarantee funding for new builds, only promising to use the interest payments from an investment into the future fund to build new properties).
The Greens MPs say they cannot support the bill unless it is further amended. The party has more meetings with the government this week, and the housing bill is set to dominate the Senate agenda in coming days (yes, the parliament continues sitting, even despite the budget circus).
BUT there is the possibility that the government tries to bring on the bill for a vote anyway, challenging the Greens to vote for or against it. The Greens reckon that would be unlikely, but it’s unclear if they would vote against the bill – perhaps instead abstaining from the vote, as they did in the lower house when the bill was pushed through.
Outside the housing bill, the Greens are also not happy with the PRRT resources tax changes, which they want to go much further as well. The Greens say the government shouldn’t take their support for granted, and that they may not back the changes (on the grounds that they don’t go far enough).
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Hecs indexation expected to hit students and former students hard
The Hecs indexation is going to hit and hit hard for students and former students already struggling. There doesn’t look like being any change to the indexation in the budget.
Today outside parliament, @NUS_President , @AusUnemployment, & the @Greens called on Labor to wake up & act on the growing rate of student poverty & a student debt crisis that is spiralling out of control.
— Mehreen Faruqi (@MehreenFaruqi) May 9, 2023
Students & young people deserve so much better, & Labor can act today. pic.twitter.com/ikOIGPFpgw
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Greens warn Labor not to ask Senate to vote on social housing bill
The Greens housing spokesperson, Max Chandler Mather, has warned Labor not to ask for a vote on its housing Australia future fund bill, confirming there’s been no progress in negotiations.
He said
The Greens have already made clear again and again that we will not support Labor’s housing plan in its current form because it doesn’t guarantee a cent in funding for housing and they’re not doing anything for renters.
You now are seeing a wave of housing organisations come out and say, it would be irresponsible and disastrous for Labor to try and force a vote on a housing bill where they have still not concluded negotiations or made any serious offer to fix a housing bill that right now will see the housing crisis get worse … We’ve got every housing organisation under the sun saying Labor needs to commit to more funding for housing and guarantee it and do something for renters.
It is remarkable that we have a situation where Labor are more willing to let their bill fail than invest billions of dollars in public and affordable housing or coordinate a national freeze on rent increases after they’ve admitted it’s possible, given the national cabinet is now finally discussing … harmonising renters’ rights across the country, including rent controls.
The outcome of that meeting is really crucial because that is a key element of our ask and for them to try and force that on before the national cabinet has reported back on that process is in itself an indication [that] it’s not clear to us that they are willing to negotiate seriously or in good faith.”
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NRL commits support to Indigenous voice to parliament
The NRL has become the first major football code to commit its support to the Indigenous voice to parliament.
In a statement on Tuesday morning, the NRL said it had been a proud supporter of the Uluru Statement from the Heart since 2017 and that it was “committed to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice”:
First Nations communities have deep bonds with rugby league and are part of our fabric at all levels, from grassroots participants and fans to the Indigenous stars who light up the NRL and NRLW,.
The NRL has had its own independent voice since the commencement of the Australian Rugby League Commission. The Australian Rugby League Indigenous Council (ARLIC) plays an integral role in making representations to the ARLC with ideas and views on behalf of Indigenous peoples across the game.
True change comes through listening, learning and taking action – and we encourage everyone in the rugby league community to get informed by the facts, and use their voice, so that we can move forward together.
Tennis Australia and the Australian Olympic Committee have already lent their backing to the voice.
The other major sporting codes run by Rugby Australia, Football Australia, Netball Australia and Cricket Australia are yet to formalise a stance on the voice. The AFL last week reportedly sent a memo to its member clubs asking them for their position as it considers its own stance.
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Chalmers and Gallagher pay ritual visit to powerful, mystical budget tree
The treasurer and the finance minister (Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher) are doing the traditional walk through the senate courtyard, to pay homage to the budget tree.
Legend has it, if the treasurer does not make a worthy enough sacrifice to the budget tree ahead of each budget, they will never become prime minister.
“Looking forward to the big day,” Chalmers says to Gallagher in what is one of the most staged conversations of all time, as they sit beneath the budget tree for a “candid” conversation between themselves and half the gallery press pack.
“Yeah,” Gallagher says, and then remembers she is meant to sound enthusiastic.
“It’s a great budget, a great women’s budget statement, always want to give that a plug. Month and months of work. A lot of collective effort in this and I think it’s going to be a really [responsible budget].
Chalmers takes his prod:
It’’s a really responsible budget and it does the right thing by people in the here and now, but it also invests in the future, and I think that’s going to make it a budget in the best – not just traditions of Labor but the traditions of Australia, looking after the most vulnerable people at the same time as we invest in more opportunities and a better future for people. So it’s a big day.
“Can I get you to look upwards?” a member of the gallery asks.
It’s all theatre. All of it. Will the budget tree be appeased? Time will tell.
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You are about to be spared the thoughts and feelings of most of the press gallery – lock up is just over two hours away.
What does that mean?
Frannnndsss!
You can’t believe everything you read in the papers! #communityindependents pic.twitter.com/y65ahoFSrc
— Allegra Spender (@spenderallegra) May 9, 2023
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The US embassy has officially acknowledged the meeting Daniel Hurst reported on between cross-party MPs and the ambassador about dropping the US’s bid for Julian Assange’s extradition.
Ambassador Kennedy welcomed representatives of the Assange Parliamentary Group to the Embassy this morning. We appreciate the time they took to meet and share their views. pic.twitter.com/mbgV7NdZ8M
— U.S. Embassy Australia (@USEmbAustralia) May 9, 2023
Teals unite to push for higher resource taxes
The teal independents are on a unity ticket when it comes to the PRRT changes not being enough:
Right now multinationals are making superprofits from resources we all own while Australians are missing out.
— Dr Sophie Scamps MP (@SophieScamps) May 9, 2023
We’re practically giving away our resources while leaving nearly a trillion dollars of debt for future generations.
The PRRT needs an overhaul #Auspol #budget pic.twitter.com/xpc1F5BmAH
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Why is gas getting a sweetheart deal under the resources rent tax?
For a day or so, we were told the changes to the petroleum resources rent tax (PRRT) would deliver $2.4bn more into the government’s coffers for the four years to 2027-28.
What wasn’t played out, though, was that the extra money looks like merely payments brought forward, rather than additional ones, as you can read here:
It’s possible there are other changes to the treatment of the deductions (such as the 15% plus government bond rate “indexation” of their rolling value) but we haven’t seen them yet (and have asked treasurer Jim Chalmers’ office a couple of times about them, without response).
The bottom line is that offshore LNG exporters have a royalty rate below 5% compared with 7.5%, say, for iron ore, and as much as 20% for Queensland’s export coal (at current high prices), according to energy analyst Tim Buckley. Australians have a right to wonder why gas gets such a sweetheart deal.
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The Minns government is sitting for the first time in NSW, which means TRADITION.
Members of @NSWParlLA have been summoned to the Council's chamber for the Opening of Parliament. Steeped in tradition, the summoning is carried out by the #UpperHouse's Usher of the Black Rod and involves the Assembly door being symbolically (and literally!) shut in her face… pic.twitter.com/AMak7nlpXB
— Legislative Council (@nsw_upperhouse) May 9, 2023
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Queensland government confirms new youth detention centre in Cairns
The Queensland government has kicked off regional sitting week by confirming it will build a youth detention centre in Cairns to meet “community expectations”.
The deputy premier, Steven Miles, said planning is underway to build two new detention centres - one in Cairns and one in south-east Queensland.
“Both new centres will include therapeutic design elements... to improve community safety,” he said. “These facilities will support the government’s goal to provide more regional detention services closer to where young people live, close to family and community relations.”
Speaking to reporters on Monday, the premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, said the new detention centre would be “modest” in size, with about 35 or 40 beds.
“It will be wraparound services as well, working with the local community and looking very clearly how to get young people engaged with work and also to be closer to home,” she said.
The chief executive of Sisters Inside, Debbie Kilroy, has raised concerns that First Nations children will be disproportionately impacted by the construction of the detention centre. She believes community solutions are needed, not more prisons.
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The parliamentary sitting doesn’t start until midday on Tuesday, to give time for the party room meetings.
The new Labor MP for Aston, Mary Doyle, will be sworn when the parliament opens and there will be a question time as normal – though most of the gallery will be in the budget lock up.
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Allegra Spender: PRRT changes are ‘tinkering around the edges’
The independent Wentworth MP Allegra Spender is also disappointed with the government’s PRRT changes. Spender has released this statement:
Now that I’ve seen the details of the PRRT changes I’m very disappointed. Labor’s proposal will collect a small amount of additional revenue a few years early – but it doesn’t come close to giving Australians a fair share from the super-profits made from their resources being sold overseas.
Last year our LNG exports increased by more than $40bn – this change is going to collect little more than 1% of that each year. It’s going to bring in less each year than the modest changes Labor announced to super balances over $3m.
This is tinkering around the edges – not a substantial reform. It’s a big opportunity that’s been missed by the government.
(It is not unusual for the teal independents to include footnotes about where they are getting their information for their statements, which Spender’s team did today. Just pointing out an interesting fact.)
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Outside of the budget Daniel Hurst reports there is a big cross party push to end the US extradition bid for Julian Assange.
That comes after Peter Dutton publicly shifted the Coalition’s message on Assange last week. (Anthony Albanese has been saying ‘enough is enough’ since he was opposition leader.
Amy’s analysis: What pre-budget leaks mean for Labor’s aims
There have been a LOT of pre-budget leaks in the lead up to this budget and quite a few of those leaks confirmed.
We know there will be a forecast surplus. Wafer thin, but it’s forecast to be there. That’s confirmed.
We know that there will be changes to the working age welfare payments. Looks like $40 a fortnight for under 55s and a little more – most likely lowering the threshold the already-in-existence, slightly-higher jobseeker rate – for long-term over-60s.
The changes to the single parenting payment age threshold, where single parents move off that payment to jobseeker (from when their youngest child turns 14, up from 8), has been officially announced.
Aged care workers are getting a pay rise.
The electricity bill relief will be up to $500 depending on which state you live in.
We know all of these things. Which means these are not the stories the government wants told from the budget.
Jim Chalmers wants to restore Labor’s “good economic manager” reputation. Throughout history, Labor has had pretty bad luck – coming to power just before a major economic downturn, and then losing office as things start to turn around.
Chalmers and Anthony Albanese have been embarking on a long term government project. Every change has been incremental and well telegraphed, they have stuck pretty close to the centre, and it’s all about being “responsible”.
The issue will be whether that lives up to voters’ expectations.
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Albanese: budget numbers ‘much better’ than predicted
Anthony Albanese also went on Adelaide radio FIVEaa – a station he has a long affiliation with and used to do a weekly segment with Christopher Pyne on, before doing it by himself after Pyne retired.
He still pops up from time to time and this morning he was asked about the forecast $4bn surplus in the budget:
Well, I know they’re reporting that but they’ll have to wait until 7:30 for any confirmation of that. Certainly, the numbers [are] much better than were predicted. There has been a very significant effort on behalf of the government to turn around … some of the figures that we inherited that were substantially worse than what you’ll see tonight. We inherited a budget that was predicting last year, under the Coalition, predicted this year a $77.9bn deficit. So I can assure you it’s much better than that.
Ahem.
“Reporting”, yes, because we HAVE confirmation of it. From the treasurer.
The #Budget2023 will forecast a small surplus for this year, which would be the first in 15 years, then smaller deficits and less debt. We are managing the budget responsibly, helping with the cost of living, and investing in the future. #auspol #ausecon
— Jim Chalmers MP (@JEChalmers) May 8, 2023
📷 @australian pic.twitter.com/qrSfGga9ya
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For those wondering what the budget lock up is actually like, here is something prepared a little earlier:
Chalmers: stage three tax cuts not a focus of discussion in this budget
So what about the stage three tax cuts?
Jim Chalmers:
We will be helping the vulnerable in this budget this year. This has been our focus. The tax cuts that you raise, they don’t come in … for more than a year now. They haven’t been a focus of our discussions for this budget but we can help the most vulnerable people in our community and in our country this year at the same time as we lay the foundations for a stronger, more sustainable economy into the future.
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PM: ‘Gas has an important role to play as a transition fuel’ towards renewables
Earlier this morning, the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, was interviewed by ABC Radio Sydney and was asked why the government wasn’t going harder on the PRRT (gas extraction) reforms:
We’re saying that gas has an important role to play as a transition fuel. If you look at a company like Rio Tinto that is moving towards all of its refineries in alumina and activity in Gladstone, they have four substantial refineries that together result in direct and indirect employment of many, many thousands of Australians.
What they are saying is they want to be powered by renewables, and whilst green hydrogen is something they’re looking at as well, to be the stabilising fuel source, if you like, in that transition, gas has an important role to play. If it wasn’t there, they wouldn’t be able to move to renewables like they are.
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Treasurer: ‘Angus Taylor is not a serious person’
More on Chalmer’s walk-in comments:
We asked about the expected rise in the jobseeker unemployment payment. Chalmers wouldn’t bite, but seemingly hinted that there would be an across-the-board raise in the rate, saying the cost of living relief wouldn’t be limited.
“We’ve been saying for some time and you’ll see tonight the cost of living relief in this budget is broader than what has been speculated on. It has a number of elements. It won’t all be limited by age or other distinctions. There’s help for the most vulnerable but also for middle Australia as we get through these difficult times together and lay the foundation for a much better future,” he said.
Chalmers also took a dig at the Nationals senator Matt Canavan for bringing in a lump of coal to Parliament House, and a dig at the shadow treasurer Angus Taylor’s criticisms of the budget.
“Angus Taylor is not a serious person, he’s not making a serious contribution and that’s why no-one takes him seriously,” he said.
Despite the projected surplus, Chalmers said he wouldn’t be following the former Coalition government’s example and printing “Back In Black” merchandise (which, of course, became collectors’ items after that surplus never materialised).
“It’s not my style to make back in black mugs like my predecessor did. I thought that was humiliating for the Liberals and Nationals frankly. I’m taking a much more cautious and conservative approach,” he said.
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Jim Chalmers confirms surplus (after PM says to wait and see)
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, says the cost of living package in tonight’s budget will be wider than speculated, as he talked up the benefits of the government’s financial plan for both the most vulnerable people as well as “middle Australia” – as well as finally confirming the worst-kept secret in Canberra, that the budget will show a surplus.
Labor or Liberal, budget day has a few standard traditions. On the day, the treasurer does a staged walk-in through the ministerial entrance of Parliament House, along a pond set into the stone floor, and holds a quick press conference. It’s early May in Canberra, so it’s usually chilly as heck (today was the first day your correspondent had to scrape ice off the car windscreen – an omen? We’ll tell you after 7.30pm).
Chalmers stuck to the tradition and in a few brief comments before walking in told waiting journalists that there would be a surplus projected in tonight’s budget. Just minutes earlier, the PM, Anthony Albanese, told 5AA radio that he wouldn’t confirm the surplus, and told the hosts to wait for the treasurer’s speech tonight.
“This is a responsible budget which helps people doing it tough and sets Australia up for the future. It’s carefully calibrated to address cost of living pressures in our communities, rather than add to them,” Chalmers said.
“It’s a budget in Labor’s best traditions but also Australia’s best traditions, help for the vulnerable, broadening and extending more opportunities, and investing in the future of our country and its people.”
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Taylor: task of budget is to ‘help people into a job that raises their income’
Who does Angus Taylor think are getting “handouts”? (I think you can guess)
We’ll see exactly who it is tonight.
But you know, if I take jobseeker as an example. jobseeker is indexed, it goes up with inflation. There was a $50 a fortnight increase under our government during the pandemic at an appropriate time.
But we have right now … more than 430,000 job vacancies. That’s almost one job vacancy for every unemployed person in Australia. We haven’t seen that sort of ratio in living memory.
So the task here is simple. Help people into a job that raises their income and it takes pressure off inflation. That’s the kind of policy we need to see. Not a policy where people are encouraged not to get into work.
… we need to see a budget that’s focused on the pressures that we are facing now. A budget that unites all Australians. A budget where more Australians are in a job. A budget where they earn higher pay because they’re earning that pay.
I mean, this is a very simple principle. It’s a good, traditional, Liberal National principle. That’s how you solve inflation. The problem with Labor governments is they’ve never been able to solve these sorts of inflationary pressures because their natural instinct is to throw money around and that makes the situation worse.
It shouldn’t need to be said “again” but it is not as simple as there are X amount of jobs and X amount of people on jobseeker and therefore there is a job for everyone. There are plenty of people on jobseeker who have chronic health issues, disabilities, caring responsibilities, issues with transport, different skill levels to what the market wants, language barriers – all sorts of things.
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‘A drover’s dog could deliver a budget surplus this year,’ Angus Taylor says
This is a serious take from the shadow treasurer who seems to be hoping that people don’t really know how budgets work and that it uses tax payments to help fund things and that includes things that might help different groups of people.
You can actually see how much of your tax goes to different parts of the budget in your tax return. And you will see that most of it goes to things like health and education with a very small part going to social security. And it is how a progressive tax system is supposed to work – if you earn more, you should pay more tax to help those who do not earn as much. It’s about fairness.
Angus Taylor:
[Australians] don’t want to see a budget that divides between those who get a hand out and those who pay for it. That is not the budget that Australia needs right now. There are specific tests within that which are very important. We don’t just need to see a budget surplus this year. A drover’s dog could deliver a budget surplus this year. We need to see budget balance across the forwards and that will take pressure off inflation on a sustainable basis.
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The treasurer has completed the “walk into parliament on budget day holding the budget” phase of the day.
Jim Chalmers says the cost-of-living relief will go wider than what has been speculated – and will also help “middle Australia”.
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The backbencher poses with the “finance minister and treasurer ahead of the budget for social media content” photos always has an element of “we paid for the meet and greet at Comic Con” vibe to it.
The Anthony Albanese @AustralianLabor Government is managing the budget responsibly, providing cost of living help, and investing in the future. Gearing up for Budget Night 2023-24 #auspol #politas #budget pic.twitter.com/VMqNtemRsw
— Helen Polley (@polley_helen) May 8, 2023
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Matt Canavan brings lump of coal to work
For “reasons”, LNP senator Matt Canavan has brought a lump of coal to parliament and is showing it off on Sky News.
So I guess the Nats are coping really well today (and in general).
Very normal behaviour. And also – proof that there don’t seem to be that many new tricks in that bag. Scott Morrison did his “this is coal, don’t be afraid” speech to the parliament in 2017.
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Angus Taylor has released a statement on what he wants out of the budget:
A drover’s dog could deliver a surplus with the record revenue being served up to Labor as part of this budget.
Labor should focus on not just delivering one surplus but maintaining it over the forward estimates as well. The only way this government can do that is by putting the interests of Australians first and resisting traditional Labor principles of higher taxes and higher spending.
The challenge of inflation is that spending more just makes it worse. Fighting inflation with handouts is like putting a Band-Aid on a bullet wound. The government must address the source of inflation, not the symptoms.
If the Labor government was serious about tackling inflation, it would build on the Coalition’s strong economic management and restore the fiscal guardrails to the budget, including restoring the goal of budget balance into the budget and the tax-to-GDP cap.
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We have updated our “you be the treasurer” tool because Nick Evershed and Andy Ball are geniuses.
What would you spend money on?
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CBA posts $2.6bn profit amid rising mortgage stress
Commonwealth Bank has warned that customers are under strain from rising borrowing and living costs after recording a $2.6bn cash profit for the March quarter, up 10% from a year earlier.
Australia’s biggest lender said loan impairments were edging higher and that it was preparing for increasing customer stress.
Many of our customers are feeling the strain of higher interest rates and the rising cost of living. We remain committed to supporting our customers through these challenges,” CBA chief executive Matt Comyn said.
As higher interest rates impact the Australian economy in the period ahead, we expect economic growth to continue to moderate.
The period of rising interest rates dating to May last year has provided a powerful tailwind to bank profits, with Australia’s biggest financial institutions cashing in on the difference between interest collected on loans and interest paid to fund them, primarily from deposits.
CBA’s quarterly results, however, show that its profit margins have started to decrease amid more competition in the mortgage market.
The cash profit result is largely in line with analyst forecasts.
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Coalition call on China to release Cheng Lei
Outside of budget news for a moment, and Peter Dutton and Simon Birmingham have released a statement calling for the Chinese government to bring “closure to the case of Australian citizen Ms Cheng Lei and released her from detention”.
Daniel Hurst has the latest here:
Dutton and Birmingham says the Coalition will continue to provide bipartisan support to the government in working to end the detention.
It is impossible for any of us outside this situation to imagine the physical and emotional trauma of being detained for such a long period of time.
Most disturbing is Ms Cheng’s continued separation from her children. Compassion, as well as justice, should see her allowed to return home to give a Mum’s love to her children.
The Coalition appreciates the sensitivity and complexity of a consular case such as this. We acknowledge that considerable effort has been applied under this government and the former government.
The same applies to the case of Dr Yang Hengjun (Dr Yang Jun) who was “detained in China in circumstances similar to Ms Cheng. Dr Yang similarly deserves to have justice served and to be released.”
The Coalition continues to provide bipartisan support to the Albanese Government to do all that is possible to secure the release of both Ms Cheng and Dr Yang.
We hold Ms Cheng, Dr Yang and their families in our thoughts during this difficult time.
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NSW Coalition unveils shadow ministry list
New South Wales Nationals MP Paul Toole has retained his position on the frontbench after being axed as party leader in favour of Dugald Saunders.
The state Coalition has this morning unveiled its shadow ministry list after a long night of negotiations following the leadership change.
Toole has retained the police portfolio and Saunders has picked up regional NSW.
Kellie Sloane has been elevated to the frontbench and handed the environment portfolio just weeks after being elected into parliament for Vaucluse.
The opposition leader, Mark Speakman, will hold a press conference at parliament this morning before the 58th parliament is opened later today.
The full list: pic.twitter.com/sIInxOx95P
— Tamsin Rose (@tamsinroses) May 8, 2023
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Greens accuse Labor of designing budget surplus ‘for political reasons’
Greens treasury spokesperson Nick McKim is next on ABC radio RN Breakfast and he is still not happy with the changes to the petroleum resource rent tax.
And he’s also not happy with the surplus:
This surplus has been designed for political reasons, by Jim Chalmers. And again, what we are seeing in this budget is an acknowledgment rhetorically that the government needs to do more to help people who are doing it really tough, but they are not taking the action they need to actually deliver help at the extent that it is desperately needed.
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Tehan unforthcoming on single parent payment
Dan Tehan also won’t say whether the opposition will support the change to the single parent payment because he says it’s “speculation”. It’s not. It’s confirmed policy. But Tehan tries to link it to the Labor promise to lower electricity bills (by 2025) by $275 which he says hasn’t happened (it’s also not 2025).
Tehan says he will wait and see what’s actually in the budget.
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Dan Tehan accuses Labor of ‘big taxing’ agenda
Over on ABC radio RN Liberal MP Dan Tehan is trying to explain why Labor’s predicted $4bn surplus isn’t actually a good thing. He says it’s because of “a big taxing, big spending, big Australia agenda”.
It’s based on the highest tax take since Wayne Swan was treasurer. Under Labor, you’re going to be taxed like you’ve never been taxed before … ”
Little bit of context. Yes, income tax has helped with this wafer-thin surplus – but it’s because unemployment is so low. There’s more people in the labour market, hence there is more income tax. Also, migration rebounded quicker than Treasury anticipated, which has also helped.
The tax system has not changed in the year since the Coalition was in power. It’s the same tax system Dan Tehan’s government was using. So no, you’re not being taxed more than ever before. It’s exactly the same
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Shadow treasurer says federal budget will ‘divide’ Australian people
Angus Taylor is speaking to ABC radio AM and the shadow treasurer says he thinks this is a budget which will “divide” the Australian people because some people will receive more help than others (the budget’s cost-of-living package is aimed at low- and fixed-income earners).
I guess Taylor didn’t pay attention to previous budgets his party handed down, because that tends to be how budgets work – some groups get more than others. It’s just sometimes those groups are high-income earners receiving massive tax breaks that will mean the budget forgoes billions of dollars in revenue over a decade it really needs that revenue and other times it’s low-income earners getting a little help with their electricity bill.
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The treasurer will hold a doorstop at 8am on his way into parliament.
This is also part of the theatre – the treasurer is filmed/photographed by the media walking into parliament on the day of the budget. The doorstop is a very quick interview where most of the answers are “responsible” and “you’ll have to wait for the budget” and then he’s on his way.
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These “candid” staged budget photos of a prime minister and their treasurer are never quite right.
But Grogs is right. It’s not as bad as 2014.
Media advisor breathes a sigh of relief. "You cleared the hurdle Tony and Joe fell over face first" pic.twitter.com/cHcX1gb6oo
— Greg Jericho (@GrogsGamut) May 8, 2023
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Good morning
Happy budget day, to those who observe.
A very big thank you to Martin for taking us through the overnight stories. We’ll switch to politics now and I’ll take you through all the parliament happenings as well as what we know about the budget and when, while lock-up gets underway at 1.30pm.
You’ve got Amy Remeikis for most of the day – I’ve already had two coffees. The limit does not exist today.
Ready? Let’s get into it.
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Student protest in Canberra over wealth gap
Hundreds of students will gather outside Parliament House this morning to protest the growing intergenerational wealth gap ahead of tonight’s federal budget.
The National Union of Students (NUS) and Foundation for Young Australians are calling on the federal government to show support for 1.2 million tertiary students struggling with cost of living, student debt and rent rises.
They’re demanding Labor lower Centrelink’s age of independence from 22 to 18 – allowing around 450,000 students to access Youth Allowance – raise welfare payments, wipe student debt and end unpaid work placements in the budget.
President Bailey Riley said students are “struggling to live” in the current climate.
Each day thousands of students are making the tough decision to either show up to class or take a shift to keep a roof over their head. Every day I speak to students who have had to drop out of classes so that they can afford just to put food on the table. As a regional student from Bathurst who had to move to study I know this struggle too well.
The students will mobilise from 10am in front of Parliament House, joined by speaker and Greens senator Dr Mehreen Faruqi.
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Qantas v union court battle on outsourcing
The high court will this morning consider whether Qantas’s decision to outsource the jobs of 1,700 ground handlers was unlawful and whether it was designed to stymie the workers from taking industrial action.
In July 2021, the federal court ruled that the airline’s decision to lay off staff at 10 airports in 2020 was in part driven by the desire to avoid industrial action, which is a breach of the Fair Work Act. The ruling exposes Qantas to a significant compensation bill.
The high court has agreed to hear Qantas’s appeal in the matter. It will be held across today and tomorrow.
Qantas argues the outsourcing was a necessary financial measure that could save it $100m annually and reduce future spending on ground-handling equipment such as tugs and baggage loaders. The airline also argues that the workers did not have the right to to take protected industrial action at the relevant time.
Qantas said it should not be penalised “for taking adverse action to prevent an employee acquiring future rights, the exercise of which at the time of the adverse action would have been unlawful”.
The TWU is joined in responding to the appeal by federal workplace relations minister, Tony Burke, who is intervening in the case.
TWU national secretary, Michael Kaine, said the case could “seriously undermine the protective intention” of the Fair Work Act, were Qantas to be successful.
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Welcome
Good morning and welcome to our budget day blog. I’m Martin Farrer and I’ll take you through a couple of overnight breaking stories before Amy Remeikis comes along for the main part of the day followed by tonight’s big reveal.
The main budget story overnight is that the budget is projected to record a $4bn surplus this financial year – the first in 15 years – thanks to soaring commodity prices and higher-than expected wage growth boosting tax revenues. The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, made the announcement which is a big change from the projected $78bn deficit in the Coalition’s March 2022 budget. We’ve got lots more budget stories of course, including Amy’s inside view of what it’s like in the Canberra lockup and, for the completists, everything we know about the budget so far. We know already that there is a $14.6bn cost-of-living package over the next four years: but we don’t know all the details.
There’s a great consumer story this morning, with news the consumer watchdog, Choice and legal advocates are all lobbying the government that airline passengers should be compensated if their flight schedules are changed. It’s in response to growing public anger at their treatment by carriers and will bring Australia into line with practices overseas.
Staying with aviation, and Qantas will launch its legal challenge in the high court in Canberra today in a bid to overturn a judgment relating to its controversial decision to outsource more than 1,600 workers during the Covid pandemic. Qantas is appealing two rulings by the federal court, which found the outsourcing of baggage handlers, cleaners and ground staff was illegal. We’ll have the developments as they happen.
