PHILADELPHIA — On the eve of thumb surgery, Bryce Harper made clear through Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson what he expects between now and the end of the season.
“He does plan to play,” Thomson said.
Harper will have surgery Wednesday to stabilize his broken left thumb, Thomson said, confirming multiple sources who said Monday that the reigning National League MVP was told by hand specialists that he wouldn’t be able to avoid the operating room. Thomson declined to provide details or a recovery timeline, deferring to Harper when he rejoins the team later in the week.
But one person with knowledge of Harper’s thinking said the Phillies star believes he can be back on the field by the middle of August.
“It’s tough, but it’s probably the best thing for him,” Thomson said Tuesday of the surgery. “It’s too bad that he broke it in the first place and he’s got to have surgery, but if he has to have it, then he has to have it.
“If he’s able to come back, which we plan on, then that’s good news under the circumstances.”
Harper was injured Saturday night in San Diego when he took a 97-mph fastball from Padres lefty Blake Snell off the thumb. Thomson said there’s “no timeline” for his return. The Phillies are wary about setting a specific goal because everyone heals at their own rate.
But if Harper returns by, say, Aug. 15, as he is believed to be targeting, he would miss a total of 41 games.
The whole thing prompts two overriding questions:
1. Is a six-week recovery from thumb surgery realistic?
2. Can the Phillies remain in playoff contention while Harper is out?
The extent of Harper’s fracture and the specifics of the surgery aren’t known. David C. Hay, an orthopedic hand and wrist surgeon at Cedars Sinai Kerlan-Jobe Institute in Los Angeles, said Monday that it wouldn’t be uncommon for an athlete with a minimally displaced fracture to have a screw inserted into the thumb to hold the bones in place and expedite the rehab process.
“Once you put the hardware in, then you can start some [range of] motion,” said Hay, who hasn’t treated Harper. “With hardware, in three or four weeks, you’re starting to get enough healing that, if you can protect the thumb externally a little bit — a brace or tape, or something — that’s where you land in that four- to six-week recovery. Unless it’s more complicated, [returning] within that six-ish-week time frame is pretty reasonable.”
The Phillies were 39-35 entering Tuesday night’s opener of a pivotal three-game series with the Atlanta Braves, one of the teams they are chasing in the division and wild-card standings. It’s a big week for the Phillies. After the Braves leave town, the St. Louis Cardinals — another wild-card contender — come to town for three games. Counting Tuesday, 15 of the next 30 games are against Atlanta or St. Louis.
Harper was putting up MVP-worthy numbers once again. He’s batting .318 and slugging .599, with a .385 on-base percentage, 21 doubles, 15 home runs, and nine stolen bases. Since the All-Star break last year, he’s slashing .324/.424/.652 with 49 doubles and 35 home runs and has been worth 7.3 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.
If there’s even a small silver lining, Harper’s absence will enable the Phillies to take Nick Castellanos (and sometimes Kyle Schwarber) out of the outfield and into the designated-hitter spot for which they were ticketed before Harper tore a ligament in his right elbow in April, forcing him out of right field. Any combination of Mickey Moniak and Odúbel Herrera against right-handed pitchers or Matt Vierling and newcomer Oscar Mercado against lefties makes the Phillies’ defense better.
“We’ve got a lot of good players in this clubhouse, and we’re all going to have to step up one by one and try not to do too much,” Schwarber said. “We just all have to be ourselves, but when guys’ names are going to be called upon, we have to answer the bell.”
Harper’s situation is further complicated by his elbow injury, which has prevented him from throwing and rendered him a full-time designated hitter. He had been scheduled to have his elbow reevaluated this week. That won’t happen now.
If Harper winds up needing elbow surgery in the offseason — and there hasn’t been a determination about that — the recovery could eat into the 2023 season.
But Thomson said he isn’t aware of any discussion of Harper’s elbow because the Phillies are in contention and Harper intends to return this season. As long as those two things don’t become mutually exclusive, Harper and the Phillies will focus only on getting him back as soon as possible.
“We let him know that we have his back,” said rookie infielder Bryson Stott, among Harper’s closest friends on the roster and certainly his oldest from their days growing up in Las Vegas. “So when he comes back, we can make our run.”
