If the season ended today, the Cleveland Browns would have the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs by nature of their 8-5 record. There are still four games left to go in the season, though, and no team in the AFC has locked in a postseason spot yet.
The Browns did do themselves a lot of favors with their Week 14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The victory pushed Cleveland’s playoff probability by 13 percent, according to Sumner Sports, to around an 85 percent likelihood of making the postseason.
updated playoff probabilities changes in week 15 after monday night football https://t.co/eiZZB4jshS pic.twitter.com/fOChdhFuvP
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) December 12, 2023
The win helped, but losses by the playoff-minded Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers helped as well.
This probability is not dissimilar from the New York Times’ playoff predictor model as well. The Times gives the Browns an 86 percent chance to make the postseason and an 11 percent chance to take the AFC North away from the Baltimore Ravens. While the latter is unlikely, though, unless the Ravens start dropping games and the Browns keep winning.
The Browns have been able to accomplish all this despite a plethora of major injuries this season at key positions such as running back, quarterback and offensive line. Joe Flacco has become a solid starter in his third week with the team and the defense remains among the best in the NFL.
The weeks ahead will determine the Browns, fate though. But for now the odds are ever in Cleveland’s favor for their first playoff berth since 2020.
