It has been true for the Bears for four decades and, as exasperating as they’ve been this season, it still is: They can never be sure they’ve actually hit rock bottom.
They were demolished by the Packers in the opener. They melted down at the end against the Buccaneers. They were losing to the Chiefs the moment they got off the bus. But if the Bears can’t handle the winless Broncos at home, it’ll be worse than all of that.
And it could happen.
As bad as the Broncos are, they have two things the Bears don’t: One of the shrewdest coaches in the game in Sean Payton and a nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback in Russell Wilson.
Wilson had one of his most efficient seasons in 2021 for the Seahawks before the Broncos went all-in by trading two first-round picks and two second-rounders, among other pieces, to land him. He was bad last season but, at 35, seems to have regained momentum.
He had 300-yard passing games the last two weeks, and his 99.5 passer rating ranks seventh in the NFL — 24 spots ahead of Bears quarterback Justin Fields. Even in his underwhelming debut season, Wilson averaged nearly 100 yards more per game than Fields.
And that was under Nathaniel Hackett, whom Payton said turned in “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL.” Hackett got the job after being Aaron Rodgers’ offensive coordinator with the Packers, then steered the Broncos to the fewest points in the NFL last season and was fired with two games left.
Payton isn’t off to a great start at 0-3, including a staggering 70-20 loss to the Dolphins last week, but he has a track record. In 16 seasons, he’s already 23rd all-time in wins, has a Super Bowl ring and has had a top-10 offense 12 times. So when he says he’s confident he can turn the Broncos around, history is on his side.
That’s not true for the Bears. They’re a startup.
General manager Ryan Poles built his career as an assistant with the Chiefs, but the credibility from that organization doesn’t automatically transfer. As a first-time GM, he’s earning or losing credibility as he goes. And right now, he has a lot of it invested in Fields after bypassing the chance to reboot at quarterback with the No. 1 pick in the draft this year.
Same goes for coach Matt Eberflus, who got his first NFL coordinator job in 2018 and had never been a head coach at any level when the Bears hired him last year. He established a reputation as a defensive guru over three decades in the business, but the Bears have allowed more points than any team in the league and the second-most yards since he took the job.
Fields is in Year 3 but seems stagnant at best. With 99 yards passing against the Chiefs last week, he now has had fewer than 200 in 20 of his 28 career starts. His interception percentage is up from last season, his yards per pass are down and his passer rating is well below what he put up as a rookie or last season.
Eberflus didn’t do any better or worse last season than any other coach would’ve with that roster, but the stakes are much higher this season. The Bears believed they had enough talent to push for a playoff spot, though there were a lot of question marks. That meant they could go either way, and Eberflus would have a huge influence on the outcome.
So far, outfitted with a legitimate roster, his team lost to the fledgling Packers and Buccaneers and got clobbered by the Chiefs. Most people lose to Patrick Mahomes, by the way, but the 41-10 drubbing the Bears suffered was Kansas City’s fourth-biggest blowout since he took over as quarterback.
Poles upgraded the roster from last season, but there was nowhere to go but up. Several of his decisions are still under a microscope, and he currently oversees a team that’s struggling in the two most important areas: quarterback and pass rush.
Trading the No. 32 overall pick for wide receiver Chase Claypool hasn’t proved profitable. Poles drafted wide receiver Velus Jones in the third round last year, and he has played four snaps on offense this season. Poles sent linebacker Roquan Smith out the door, and he was an All-Pro last season.
Poles, Eberflus and Fields are on shaky ground. Payton and Wilson are not.
And that brings up another issue for the Bears. Not only do they face the challenge of trying to properly stock the roster after stripping it last year, but their rebuild is competing against everyone else’s in a zero-sum game. In any given season, one-third of the NFL is rebuilding.
The competition from the bottom is just as fierce as it is at the top. The rest of the NFL’s rebuilding teams aren’t just sitting around waiting for the Bears to climb over them.
They don’t have to look far to see that.
The Bears were 6-11 in 2021, leading to a full reset by chairman George McCaskey, who fired general manager Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy. The Lions, meanwhile, were 3-13-1 but appear to have a good enough answer at quarterback in Jared Goff and jumped to 9-8 last season as the Bears plunged to 3-14.
The Bears celebrated Rodgers’ departure, but the Lions were far more prepared for it and went into this season as the favorite to win the NFC North.
The point is that the Lions’ rebuilding project succeeding comes at the direct expense of the Bears. That’s true of every other competitor in the rebuild game. The Bears face several of them this season, but they’re battling indirectly, as well. The talent pool is limited, and only so many teams can qualify as championship contenders.
It’s a fight in the draft, too. When Poles opted to unload the first pick and ultimately land at No. 10, he watched fellow rebuilders take players the Bears could’ve used.
Will they eventually get it right? That’s uncertain, but the outlook is bleak at the moment. Things are hazy for the Broncos, too, but they have people in place who have done it before.
