Week 6 was a wellspring of bad quarterbacking. Roughly half the league’s starting quarterbacks slapped together below average performances through the early games Sunday.
Russell Wilson kicked off the week with an exceptionally “Thursday” Thursday night performance in an impotent game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Joe Burrow and Geno Smith each underperformed in a Cincinnati rock fight between two 2022 playoff teams. And Brock Purdy struggled without injured playmakers Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel against the Cleveland Browns’ elite defense.
That’s but a sampling of the truly gross play that inundated the league Sunday.
Who was the worst quarterback this week? Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging these underwhelming performances were. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Week 6 EPA against their 2022 and 2023 combined average, we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the sixth game (for most players) of the 2023 season.
8
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.9
Week 6 EPA: -4.4
Difference: 6.3 points worse
Tannehill was robbed of a shot at redemption after an ankle injury cost him the entire fourth quarter of a close game against the Baltimore Ravens. Of course, his last play in London was an underthrown interception into double coverage, so it’s entirely plausible things were only going to get worse.
WE'LL TAKE THAT❗️@GenoStone22 INTERCEPTION!
Tune in on NFL Network! pic.twitter.com/zIwBhjAdhA
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 15, 2023
Prior to the injury, Tannehill had proven incapable of opening up the Titans’ offense downfield. He’s completed just eight of 27 deep throws this season — a 29.6 percent completion rate that would be the worse of his career, as well as a deep ball IQR — Sports Information Solution’s derivative quarterback grade system — that’s also a personal worst.
This has had a predictable effect; Derrick Henry is running into stuffed boxes (eight-plus defenders near the line of scrimmage) on 44.9 percent of his carries; second-highest in the NFL. It’s also 17 percent higher than Henry had seen in 2020 in the midst of Tannehill’s first full season as the team’s starter. While the workhorse back has found sporadic success, his 1.8 yards before contact is a career low and dragged his yards per carry down to 3.8 as a result.
Tennessee has a bye week to recover from its trip overseas. We’ll see if that gives Tannehill the room he needs to heal and get back to his early season highs. Or this could be the last time we see the veteran quarterback, a free agent in 2024, on this list as he clears way for either Malik Willis or Will Levis to build a resume as the Titans’ quarterback of the future.
7
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 5.4
Week 6 EPA: -2.3
Difference: 7.7 points worse
The Bengals escaped with a win, which is all that matters. And Burrow’s ailing calf appeared to be less of an issue in Week 6 than it had the previous three games.
i think Joe Burrow's calf is feeling better pic.twitter.com/w1Ak3Ohgxi
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 15, 2023
But once again he was unable to jump start Cincinnati’s deep game. The Seahawks secondary limited the Bengals receiving corps throughout the second half to keep its offense alive in an eventual 17-13 loss. Ja’Marr Chase had six catches, but needed 13 targets to get there. Burrow only attempted four passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfield and had as many completions on those throws (one) as interceptions. His average pass flew just 5.6 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Again, this did not matter because the Bengals won. But Burrow is clearly not Joe Brrr or Joe Shiesty without his big throws. Fortunately for Cincinnati, he’s got a bye week to rest up and get his calf right before returning in Week 8 against the San Francisco 49ers.
6
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 4
Week 6 EPA: -3.7
Difference: 7.7 points worse
Smith was on track to avoid this column in Week 6. Then he capped off two gotta-have-it drives with sacks taken on fourth-and-goal.
DJ Reader didn't get credit for this sack (he should have) but he absolutely made it happen by grinding Phil Haynes into the turf and giving Geno Smith absolutely no room to step up in the pocket on fourth and goal. game-saving stuff pic.twitter.com/w5Ozqkx3MO
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 15, 2023
Seahawks lose, and Smith slides onto our gross quarterback ranks.
5
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.3
Week 6 EPA: -6.6
Difference: 7.9 points worse
It was encouraging. After a hopeless start, the Bears offense had found something approaching a rhythm. Chicago had scored 68 points and even won a game between Weeks 4 and 5. Fields was, in this miniscule sample size, the league’s fourth-best quarterback in terms of advanced stats.
Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense — no team in the league even comes close to coordinator Brian Flores’ 56 percent blitz rate this season — was exactly as much as a problem as you’d expect for a quarterback who has been sacked on 13 percent of his dropbacks as a pro. But this wasn’t solely a failure up front. Fields and the Bears offense struggled to create space downfield to make anything happen throughout the afternoon.
Fields has almost 4 seconds in the pocket before having to bail and couldn't make anything happen. don't feel great about it pic.twitter.com/S2Mo8HfJ6K
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 15, 2023
Fields left the game after that play due to a right arm injury. His replacement, undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent, gave up a strip sack and fumble return touchdown on his third snap as a pro. If Fields can’t go next week, the offense will be in the hands of Bagent and Nathan Peterman. This is terrible news for Bears fans in 2023 but amazing news for them come the 2024 NFL Draft.
4
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 8.6
Week 6 EPA: -0.8
Difference: 9.2 points worse
Third-and-long, under two minutes to play. A first down here ends the game. Anything short leads to a punt and forces the New York Jets to run a no-timeout drive 50-plus yards in the final 80-ish seconds behind Zach Wilson. The only thing Jalen Hurts cannot do here is turn the ball over.
This is what Jalen Hurts does.
oh no Jalen why pic.twitter.com/WpU2eTbtXh
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 15, 2023
That was Hurts’ third interception of the night; a triumvirate that led to just eight Jets points but enough to cap a comeback from down 14-3. Philadelphia came into the late game as the league’s last undefeated team and held the title for all of three hours, crumbling as a 6.5-point favorite in New York and leaving the rest of the world to wonder just how the hell the New England Patriots beat the Jets.
3
Gardner Minshew II, Indianapolis Colts
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.5
Week 6 EPA: -12.4
Difference: 13.9 points worse
Minshew works in cycles. First he outperforms expectations. Then he begins to suggest he could be a full-time starting NFL quarterback. Then he takes a step backward and plants himself firmly in the phantom zone between “viable quarterback” and “modestly paid backup for a reason.”
Sunday’s game was the third piece of that puzzle, undoing the goodwill of an early season where he’d gone 3-0 in games where he’d thrown at least 10 passes. He had four turnovers in a game where his Colts trailed by double digits for nearly three full quarters. He showed a willingness to take shots downfield, which is good. He had all three of his interceptions come in that deep and intermediate level, which is not.
.@Dee_Willl2 with his third pick in as many weeks!#INDvsJAX on CBS/NFL+ pic.twitter.com/DCEAB2HOKy
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) October 15, 2023
Minshew struggled to identify open targets and had his passes swatted down a staggering nine times in 55 attempts. He exemplified his positive and negative traits, occasionally on back-to-back throws. He proved he’s still not trustable as a starting NFL quarterback, even if he’s capable of being one.
2
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 2.2
Week 6 EPA: -11.8
Difference: 14 points worse
Wilson trailed for 50 minutes of Thursday night’s game. Despite this, he only attempted five passes that traveled more than 10 yards downfield. There’s some logic behind that lack of risk-taking; he had more incompletions than first downs on these throws and tossed as many interceptions as touchdowns.
Wilson continued to struggle in situations with the game on the line. Among 32 full time quarterbacks, his 0.096 adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play rank 12th in the NFL — perfectly reasonable! Eliminate garbage time opportunities when the win probability for either team cracks 80 percent and that EPA/play drops to -0.047 — 26th best, per RBSDM.com.
That number tells us what Broncos fans already know. With the game in question, Russ is a drain on his own offense. He’s taking fewer sacks than last season, but dropping from getting dumped on 10 percent of your dropbacks to nine isn’t the win Denver needed.
His passing accuracy has risen but that’s a function of shorter throws rather than a revival of his ability to fit balls into tight windows downfield. Sean Payton is treating him in more than a few ways like late stage Drew Brees, but Wilson hasn’t been able to hit that modest standard.
1
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 10.4
Week 6 EPA: -8
Difference: 18.4 points worse
Caveat: Purdy led what should have been a game-winning two-minute drill before rookie kicker Jake Moody pushed a 41-yard field goal wide right with nine seconds to play. That’s the good news. The bad news is Purdy played badly enough in the preceding 58 minutes to keep a last-ditch field goal to beat P.J. Walker.
Yep, it was ugly.
We'd like to welcome you to Emerson Island, we hope you enjoy your stay 🏝 pic.twitter.com/gs7IxqpdLI
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) October 15, 2023
Purdy did little to assuage criticism that he’s greatly elevated by the skill players around him. Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey each left the game due to injury, putting pressure on an off-his-game Brandon Aiyuk and guys like Jordan Mason and Jauan Jennings to step up. They more or less lived up to expectations, but the downgrade was felt throughout the San Francisco offense.
Purdy’s 125 passing yards were a career low in any game he’s started in the NFL. Same with his 4.6 yards per attempt and 55.3 passer rating. Things. Were. Bad.
That’s 12 passes that flew at least 10 yards downfield and just two completions. To their credit, the Browns have a swarming secondary and top two pressure rate, which accounts for some of that dropoff. But Purdy just did not have it Sunday, leaving inaccurate passes where defenders could get to them in a game where he was lucky to only be intercepted once.
As a result, the 49ers are no longer undefeated and, after blowing out Dak Prescott and handling Matthew Stafford, have a loss to PJ by-god Walker on their resume. Fortunately for San Francisco, the past year-plus has suggested this is an outlier for Purdy rather than the beginning of a trend. Of course, the Niners will feel a whole lot better about all this once Samuel and McCaffrey come back.
