The UK is responsible for almost twice as much global heating as previously thought when its colonial history is taken into account, analysis has revealed.
The UK’s domestic emissions account for 3% of total world emissions dating back to 1850. But when responsibility for emissions in countries once under the British empire’s rule is given to the UK, the figure rises to more than 5%.
These additional emissions come largely from the destruction of forests in the colonised countries, with the biggest contributors coming from India, Myanmar and Nigeria before their independence.
The analysis by Carbon Brief moves up the UK from eighth to fourth in the list of nations with the biggest historical emissions, behind the US, China and Russia.
The climate crisis, which has led to temperature records being shattered in 2023, is predominantly the result of carbon emissions from rich nations. However, the worst impacts of intensifying extreme weather are hitting poorer nations, which have very low emissions.
The issue of responsibility features strongly in the international UN climate negotiations, which resume again at Cop28 in the United Arab Emirates on Thursday.
It is especially important in debate over the provision of climate finance to developing nations. A new “loss and damage” fund will be a critical matter of contention at the summit.
Dr Simon Evans, at Carbon Brief, said: “Our new analysis offers a thought-provoking fresh perspective on questions of climate justice. It is well known that colonial powers extracted natural resources from colonised lands to support their economic and political power, but the link to historical emissions had never been quantified until now.
“Our findings reinforce the significant historical responsibility of developed countries for current warming, particularly the former colonial powers in Europe.
“Many of these countries now have declining emissions. Yet their relative wealth today – and their historical contributions to current warming – are recognised within the international climate regime as being tied to a responsibility to support the climate response in less developed countries.”
Historical emissions are significant because there is a direct relationship between the amount of carbon dioxide released over time and the level of heating at the Earth’s surface, said Evans.
This means even CO2 emissions from 170 years ago continue to contribute to the heating of the planet. The analysis includes emissions from fossil fuels, cement, and the destruction of forests and other natural habitats.
The analysis shows other countries such as the Netherlands and France also jump up the ranking of historical responsibility for the climate crisis when their colonial emissions are included. The Netherlands, which colonised Indonesia, rises from 35th to 12th in the ranking, with its cumulative emissions nearly tripling, while the French total rises by 50%.
The analysis also calculates national cumulative emissions from 1850 per person, based on today’s population. On this basis, the Netherlands has the highest per capita historical emissions, followed by the UK in second place, among countries with populations of at least 1 million.
“Climate change impacts are responsible for devastating losses and damages in many former British colonial territories,” said Dr Nfamara Dampha, a Gambian scientist at the University of Minnesota, US.
“For example, the Gambia’s capital city Banjul is projected to be completely lost by 2100 if aggressive measures are not undertaken.
“Rich developed nations, including the UK, agreed to establish the loss and damage fund last year. However, we are heading to Cop28 leaving climate justice or reparation behind.”
He said this was because the likely set-up of the fund “unequivocally fails to hold former colonisers accountable for paying their fair share, based on historical responsibility, equity, and polluter-pays principles”.
Zahra Hdidou, at ActionAid UK, said the analysis was “particularly damning” for the UK: “As the fourth highest historic carbon emitter in the world, it has an historic responsibility to address climate change, but currently its actions don’t match its words.”
She pointed to the issuing of new oil and gas licences and controversy over the delivery of a promised £11.6bn in climate finance.
A UK government spokesperson said: “This analysis ignores the fact the UK is taking decisive action to cut emissions far faster than any other major economy. The UK currently accounts for only 1% of annual global emissions.
“Keeping 1.5C in reach requires us to focus on the future, which is why we’re investing billions to support the transition to net zero and reduce emissions yet further.”
The Carbon Brief analysis used published historical emissions data from 1850 to 2021 and used other data to update the figure to 2023. Information on the history of foreign rule is taken from another published study.
The analysis of the UK took into account 46 countries that were once part of the British empire. Emissions from former Soviet republics were ascribed to Russia.
