Is Britain headed for a recession? Ernst & Young (EY) believes that it is if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for the remainder of the year. The last UK recession was in 2023, when the economy was down by 0.1% from July to September and dipped further to 0.3% during the last quarter.
'If the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the coming months, we expect the UK to avoid a more pronounced downturn, but an extended closure into 2027 would raise inflation and could push the economy into contraction next year," EY UK Chief Economist Peter Arnold said.
