Britain will back fast-tracking Ukraine’s Nato membership as momentum builds among Western allies to significantly change their stance over Kyiv’s attempts to join the alliance.
Volodymyr Zelensky’s government may have a quick route to accession, as has been granted recently to Sweden and Finland, rather than continuing with the slower Membership Action Plan (MAP) that has preconditions for entry.
Russia is adamantly opposed to Ukraine joining Nato, and even after Vladimir Putin’s invasion there has been reticence among member states over the speed of Kyiv’s accession.
But as the war enters its 16th month, the position of Western allies appears to be changing.
Britain’s foreign secretary James Cleverly told the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London on Wednesday: “We have seen Ukraine evolve, and evolve quickly.
“Many of the requirements of the Membership Action Plan are actually being delivered. The reform of their armed forces are happening whilst engaged in conflict and I think the UK’s position is that it would be very supportive if we moved on from the Membership Action Plan.
“We recognise that the offer to both Sweden and Finland did not require MAP. The Ukrainians have demonstrated their commitment to military reform required for Nato membership through their actions on the battlefield, and I think all Nato allies recognise that.”
Also speaking at the conference, the French foreign minister, Catherine Colonna, commented: “Perhaps we don’t require the MAP mechanism, something which was planned in 2008. We are now a long way from 2008; time has passed, the situation is quite different.”
The United States has been cautious about Ukraine’s Nato membership, with Joe Biden saying recently that his administration would not “make it easy” for Kyiv to join. “They have got to meet the same standards [as other entrants], that is our position,” he said. “I think it will happen, can happen, but it won’t be automatic.”
However, senior White House officials indicated the president is “open to” waiving the MAP requirement for Ukraine, and Washington is facing mounting pressure from European allies to give firmer backing to Mr Zelensky on the issue.
Krisjanis Karins, the Latvian prime minister, said: “The only chance for peace in Europe is when Ukraine will be in Nato.” Failure to do so, she said, means “Russia will come back.”
Nato membership for Ukraine is seen as a deterrent to Moscow from continuous attacks and attempts in the future to carry out regime change in Kyiv. A member can invoke Article 5, under which an attack on one member by an outside power is regarded as an attack on all Nato states.
However, it is precisely this prospect of Nato getting directly into war with Moscow that is cited in support of making Ukraine wait until the current conflict has ended.
Ukraine will be the key topic at next month’s Nato summit in Vilnius, one of the most important in its recent history.
It remains unlikely that Ukraine will be offered immediate membership. The options being considered include guarantees that Western military support will continue, and that the Nato-Ukraine Commission, launched in 1997, will be upgraded to Nato-Ukraine Council, with a higher level of engagement.
It will be a symbolic as well as practical move; in 2002, a decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia became a partner in the Nato-Russia Council but that ended with the annexation of Crimea by Moscow in 2014.
Meanwhile, Britain has set out a package of support for Ukraine including $3bn (£2.3bn) in guarantees for World Bank loans and $305m (£238bn) in bilateral assistance. The US said it will send an additional $1.3bn (£1bn) in financial assistance to overhaul Ukraine’s energy grid and modernise other critical infrastructure.
