Normally you’d tread carefully with this sort of declaration of fact, applying liberal caveats, but being so polite would be looked down upon in the Mem at present: Bristol Rovers are just three points outside the play-offs.
Yes, we are only 21 games deep in a season that already feels like an epic and we’re barely into the cut and thrust of December. There is a lot of football still to be played, but the Gas are unmistakably a team trending upwards and with every reason to believe that while dips surely lie ahead, they shouldn’t waver too much from such a trajectory under Joey Barton.
Saturday’s 1-0 win over Port Vale means they have taken 20 points from a possible 33 since the start of October and with the sense that this group are still developing, learning, figuring out how to play together and adapting to life in League One. Five of these games have ended in draws and the margins between mid-table and the top six aren’t perhaps as great as first envisaged back in the summer.
Nobody wearing official club attire was playing down their credentials that’s for sure, and with four of their next five league fixtures against teams in the bottom half - with Wycombe Wanderers the loftiest-placed in ninth - who knows what sort of conversations we’ll be having leading into the January window.
Here are the main talking points from the victory over Vale…
Rovers take another step forward
This was unquestionably a grind at times and what had begun as an occasion - with a strong crowd and a crisp and sunny December afternoon in anticipation of events not just in BS7 but also 4,000 miles away in Qatar - descended into increasing frustration.
Port Vale knew what they were doing. As early as the 35th minute referee Carl Brook was speaking to visiting goalkeeper Jack Stevens to warn him over the time he was taking for each goal kick and although Darrell Clarke’s team started brightly, they soon sought to play spoiler.
Clarke was frustrated by his team’s execution in possession, stating post-match “we lost impetus, momentum and quality throughout the game,” but clearly an element of their game plan was to close the pitch, limit the space between lines, build their structure and say to the Gas - “go on, try and play through us”.
Rovers enjoyed 60.1 per cent possession (they average 52.4 for the season), emphasising how much Vale were apparently happy to surrender the ball, and while Barton’s side did retain the ball well, they were kept at arm’s length for large parts with no enough penetration through midfield.
Clarke is no fool, he knows more than most exactly what Rovers are capable of with the Mem at their backs, having harnessed it many a time. But the longer his team stayed rigid and resolute, the more anxiety would build. It was interesting that Vale chose to change ends before kick-off as well, preventing the Gas from attacking the Thatchers’ End in the second half. The devil, as always, is in the details.
Collins spoke after the game of how Rovers have drawn too many games this season - four at the Mem, three on the road - and, as the clock drifted towards the final 10 minutes, and with the sun dropping below the West Stand the temperature fell sharply and so too seemed the Gas’ chances of converting one to three points.
But they kept on going, aided by the visitors’ lack of attacking adventure, bar James Belshaw’s stretch to deny Tom Conlon, and although the winner sort of came from nowhere as John Marquis toed a ball upfield for Collins to barge his way into Will Forrester and then finish, rather than a period of sustained pressure, it ultimately went to the one team trying to win the game.
Rovers have taken not just steps forward but huge leaps over the last two months and although this was a game they’d have wanted, and probably expected, to win, the same was also true of Shrewsbury Town, Accrington Stanley, Lincoln City and Morecambe but that quartet across August and September yielded just two points. This was all three as the Gas proved they can win even when not at their absolute best.
A World Cup lesson
It’s not exactly derived from Rinus Michels’ most intricate theories on how football should be played but Barton doffed his cap (or Rovers' bobble hat, we should say) to now former Brazil head coach Tite at the end of the game. It sounds painfully simple but there really is a lot to be said for keeping your match-winners on the pitch, however they’re playing.
The five substitutes rule allows you to be creative and make use of your squad depth and with strong options on the bench, the temptation for Barton most matches must be to make the full five, especially if the game state isn’t quite to his satisfaction.
Evidence of Rovers’ quality beyond the starting XI is the fact that arguably their two headline summer signings - John Marquis and Luke McCormick - can’t get into the starting XI at present and are “impact substitutes”.
With Collins misfiring over much of the 90 minutes, Barton confessed that he had throughout several moments in the second half considered replacing him. But then removing the unique quality you know he possesses comes at an obvious price and in a tight game, such as it was against Vale, it’s one specific moment of inspiration that often decides the contest.
As it came to pass, when Collins shoved Forrester off his stride as he chased down Marquis’ hopeful ball forward - somewhat illegally it has to be said, and the Rovers No10 admitted as much after the game that he was lucky to get away with it - before setting himself and firing low into the bottom corner.
With the exception of possibly Antony Evans, who wouldn’t likely be in that forward position against a centre-back anyway, there probably isn’t anyone else in the Gas squad capable of that type of goal. Hence keeping Collins on, despite his struggles, proved a smart decision.
Barton cited Tite’s insistence on keeping Neymar on the field for Brazil’s World Cup quarter-final against Brazil on Friday in which the No10 has largely been unable to exert any influence on the game, didn’t look fit, lacked quality in possession and was drifting into irrelevance. And yet, just when the Selecao needed it, conjured a moment of individual magic to 1-2 his way into the penalty area and fire into the roof of the net.
The Mem is a world away from events in Doha but the principles remain and the Gas had their own perfect 10 who just needed a glimmer of an opening to make a difference.
Coburn has it all
He’s only 14 games into his time at Rovers but it’s not unreasonable to say that by the end of the season, Josh Coburn could well be filed alongside Elliot Anderson and Connor Taylor in terms of outstanding loan signings whose impact will be continued to be felt as they progress their respective careers. Barton said as much himself.
It speaks volumes of the baby-faced Coburn as a player, professional and a man (or, more accurately, boy) that he’s prepared to take such an unselfish physical battering for 90 minutes at a club with no emotional, geographical or financial attachment, or even with any direct reward in terms of adding to his five goals this season.
Yes, that’s what he’s told to do and what he should be doing in his line of employment if he wants to make a career of it. But the kid has only just turned 20. You’d maybe expect that sort of endeavour from a more experienced pro, but not necessarily somebody starting out in the game.
As the on-loan Middlesbrough striker continued to chase balls forward, getting no change from referee Brook as Port Vale defender Dan Jones - perhaps with the foresight of the player the No40 could one day become in the future - wanted to get an early souvenir by trying trip his shirt off him by the sleeves, Coburn would have been slightly forgiven for an outward display of frustration and a loss of patience.
But he kept on going, kept on fighting, kept on battering defenders back, winning fouls, making space and just being a constant outlet for Rovers when they needed him to be. It was an almighty shift and one that displayed his full abilities as a targetman.
He had his chances; in the first half from Scott Sinclair’s inside pass and then in the second as Evans played him in with a clever flick, but each time Stevens got down to save. But that also showed the other primary facet to his game, the timing of his runs and the pace and stride to get beyond the defence.
Coburn, as we’ve seen on five occasions this term, can finish, he can run in behind and can unquestionably mix it with your typical industrial League One centre-backs, using his sizeable frame and body strength to good effect. And, crucially, he keeps coming back for more - it’s almost as if he thrives on it.
100 up for Barton
There was no bat to be raised to the pavilion but Barton gave it a full double, possibly even triple, fist-pump at full-time as he saluted his congregation in the Thatchers' End as they celebrated the victory in his 100th game in charge of Rovers.
The 40-year-old claimed he wasn’t aware of the milestone until the build-up to Port Vale and, in many ways, why would he? It’s just an arbitrary number and doesn’t bear any relevance in terms of direct on-field success, plus he does have plenty more on his plate than to bask in self-serving glory.
However, then again, it is significant when you consider that after Ian Holloway’s reign ended in January 2001, only two other managers for the club have reached a century of games: Paul Trollope, who finished with 284, and, of course, Darrell Clarke, who reached 246.
What had been a revolving door of different names, faces, styles and personalities now has a sense of permanence and familiarity and feeling that while hitting a century is impressive, the next 100 matches - which do carry a few ifs because eventually the Championship’s finest are going to start to take notice, if they haven’t already - are going to be even better.
Barton has energised and inspired the fanbase, given them a purpose and drawn a path for the future that while ambitious, looks an increasingly credible target. Hope is a powerful thing but it’s also a difficult emotion, not just to instil it in a group of people but maintain it. We may sound a little hyperbolic but with Barton in charge and the strides Rovers have made over his 100 games - with, admittedly, some significant issues along the way - the concept of what is possible is increasingly vague and being redefined, in a positive way.
Yes, he’s drawn on many of the characteristics that make Rovers what they are; a blue collar underdog-like figure with a rebellious spirit.
However, that’s him as a man - or at least a slightly caricatured version of him - rather than a coach and undersells his impact on the training pitch and a matchday in improving players and creating a team that plays predominantly thrilling, full-blooded and winning football, but also with a high level of football IQ in how to close games out and finding a way of winning.
But while there is cause for celebration - and the victory over Port Vale also means he has a nice, round 40 per cent win rate - it’s also worth looking at things from the other side in that Rovers have given him a platform to showcase his coaching ability and he’s now only 28 games shy of the number he reached for Fleetwood Town in his first managerial job.
Owner Wael Al-Qadi has displayed patience and faith in the Scouser, often when warned again and with scepticism (at times, in these very pages) but stuck with his man and visits to the Mem on Barton’s watch, for all concerned, don’t feel like labours of love or made out of blind loyalty, there’s an excitement, an anticipation and a very visceral sense of enjoyment pouring out from all sides of the ground.
He’s given the Gasheads a team to believe in again, exactly like Holloway, Trollope and Clarke before him.
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