Based on last week’s fallout from Fratton Park there’s one thing we can be certain about Joey Barton when it comes to selecting his Bristol Rovers team: he won’t ever be playing 4-4-2.
How much he decides to stray away from the Mike Bassett-endorsed traditional “English” format is anyone’s guess, but the radical 3-3-3-1 deployed on the south coast was pushing the envelope pretty far.
Barton and his staff are confident there were enough good moments over the 90 minutes against Portsmouth to indicate that the system is one worth persisting with long-term, it just needs some refining on the training ground.
That may not be met with universal agreement within the fanbase but it’s an interesting and intriguing concept nonetheless. However, as Shrewsbury Town arrive at the Mem today, they represent a very different challenge to that of Portsmouth.
Barton catered his tactics last week due to the players he had and what the opposition were likely to do - having outlined their style in detail in his pre-match press conference. Playing at home, as Andy Mangan said on Thursday, is about taking the game to the visitors, particularly when, with all due respect, Steve Cotterill’s Shrews aren’t one of the divisional heavyweights like Pompey.
With that in mind, the likelihood is that, at least from kick-off, Barton will revert back to the 4-2-3-1 that served them well against Oxford United earlier this month…
Goalkeeper and defence
We don’t really require too much debate around the goalkeeper, do we? James Belshaw may have shipped six goals in his last two games but his place seems reasonably secure with Jed Ward out on loan and Anssi Jaakkola also combining his place in the squad with a role as goalkeeper coach.
Interestingly enough, which may or may not be of significance, the Finland international updated his Linkedin profile this week with the title of “coach” alongside goalkeeper, which could indicate he’s got the job full-time. Which may or may not mean Rovers may try to bring in another keeper before Thursday. Which could also be us getting too far ahead of ourselves. Anyway, returning to the subject at hand - Belshaw starts.
The defence didn’t do a lot wrong at Fratton Park and Lewis Gibson, in particular, was excellent, so the expectation is that all three will start again at the Mem, just as part of a four-man backline, rather than a trio.
That would likely mean Luca Hoole returning to his more natural position, at least for now because he has looked very good in the middle, of right-back and Gibson partnering James Connolly. That then leaves a vacancy on the left for which Lewis Gordon could come back into the starting XI having been dropped against Portsmouth.
Or, alternatively, Alfie Kilgour, who’s come off the bench at Barnsley and Pompey, could earn his first league start alongside Connolly and Gibson deputise as a left-back, having been on that side of the three last weekend. Or, as a final option, we’re back with Harry Anderson in that role.
Ultimately, Gibson’s future in the team this season is almost certainly at centre-back so building and continuing that relationship with Connolly appears key so that looks the most likely pick for Barton.
Midfield
If, as we anticipate, Barton refers back to a 4-2-3-1, the five central midfielders who started at Pompey now have to fit into three with one holder, one box-to-box presence and then an advanced playmaker.
It’s a difficult decision but also an easy one that is ever so slightly complicated by fitness as Mangan hinted on Thursday one player required a fitness test on Friday, without revealing who that was. Given we don’t know who it is (apologies), let’s just work on the assumption that everyone in this area of the field is fit.
In that instance, captain Paul Coutts will almost certainly be the holding player and the Scot is then likely partnered by Sam Finley to bring the energy, tenacity and creativity a little higher up the pitch. That would then move Jordan Rossiter and Glenn Whelan to the bench, with Antony Evans at the No10 position (or him and Finley as duel No8s, however you want to perceive it).
Luke McCormick’s match fitness will deepen the decisions once the 23-year-old is at an appropriate level, but we know he’s not going to be involved today as he undergoes his own training programme following a first four weeks of the season in which he’s played no competitive football for AFC Wimbledon. Josh Grant is also still not quite ready for a first-team return.
The flanks outside of Evans will then be occupied by two from Aaron Collins, Harvey Saunders and Harry Anderson. The former is a given after four goals from five league games and he’ll be stationed on the inside left with whoever is selected as full-back overlapping the Welshman - which does give rise to Anderson starting there.
But did the 25-year-old’s substitute appearance at Pompey ruin his chances of being involved from the start today? It’s possible, however he is such a usually dependable player for Barton that one poor performance shouldn’t lead to him being immediately cast aside.
That all being said, Saunders did start the previous home game against Oxford, could be that little bit fresher and offers plenty of pace and penetration to take the game to Shrewsbury, as Rovers intended to do.
With Cotterill likely to field wing-backs, the spaces behind and outside of the centre-backs are there to be exploited and with Collins’ intelligence at occupying pockets down one flank, and Saunders’ acceleration down the other, it gives the Gas a nice balance.
Attack
It wasn’t the ideal game for John Marquis at Fratton Park as his role at the head of the attack was a thankless one. After two bluntish performances at Barnsley at Pompey, you could start to build an argument that maybe a switch to a three, with Collins in the middle and Saunders and Anderson opens Rovers up a little, especially at home.
But that ignores a lot of the work off the ball that Marquis does and his pressing on the south coast was a vital tool to keep the Gas in the game. He’s been feeding off scraps but has put plenty of work in to be rewarded with a start today in which, at least you’d expect, the service to be more regular.
That then again leaves Ryan Loft on the bench as a secondary option for the manager depending on the game state in the second half.
Bristol Rovers (4-2-3-1): James Belshaw; Luca Hoole, James Connolly, Lewis Gibson, Lewis Gordon; Paul Coutts, Sam Finley; Harvey Saunders, Antony Evans, Aaron Collins; John Marquis
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