The concept of a six-pointer is probably over-egging things a bit but this fixture is undoubtedly an important one, for both Bristol Rovers and Oxford United but, more pertinently, Joey Barton and Karl Robinson.
There’s always been a bit of extra needle in matches between Rovers and Oxford, with or without Matty Taylor, hence the early kick-off but for Robinson he’s received a vote of confidence this week from the club hierarchy albeit with a message results need to improve quickly.
There’s no such pressure around Barton’s position but there is a strange aura developing around the Gas at the moment as optimism is subsiding, and for the first time in probably a year, questions of the manager are reaching far and wide in their scope.
Results are the ultimate determiner and three points would go a considerable way to quelling any discontent or disenchantment and just give everyone a chance to breathe after a pretty challenging period of form, with January 7 the last time Rovers were victorious in a game.
Ahead of the fixture at Kassam Stadium, here’s how we think the Gas will line up…
Goalkeeper
The James Belshaw debate isn’t going away anytime soon but at least for Ellery Balcombe the chances of those chants are reduced by the prospect of playing away from home. You’d like to think after the very clear evidence it does nobody any favours - the player or the team, probably not even Belshaw - hopefully they won’t resurface at Oxford.
Balcombe is likely to be Rovers’ No1 once again after a mixed bag against Burton Albion last week in which his propensity to punch was very much illuminated, in a negative sense. Oxford do keep it on the deck a little more so there may not be the same consistency of aerial threat but the Brentford loanee could do with a performance just to calm everyone down. Least of all for his own confidence, but as it stands his manager has retained his in the 23-year-old.
In terms of the backline, throughout this dodgy run you could make the case that James Gibbons has been among the Gas’ most consistent individuals and if Barton opts for a four-man defence, as anticipated, then he should line up at right-back ahead of Luca Hoole.
The left-back slot is a straight fight between Calum Macdonald, who made his debut last week, and Lewis Gordon and it’s a position where Barton seems unsure as to what his best option is and so therefore is open to interpretation as to who is the most likely starter. Did Macdonald do enough to keep the shirt? Probably not, but equally it would be a little knee-jerk to take him out after one game and bring Gordon back in. Then again, given the need for a result the manager may feel more assured by a player he knows more about than the slight uncertainty of the January arrival.
That leaves the centre-back positions and with Lewis Gibson almost certain to start his first game since January 1, we’re left with Jarell Quansah or James Connolly. In truth, it doesn’t seem much of a contest as the latter was taken out of the firing line late in the Burton game and has appeared out of sorts for a few weeks now. Unless Barton wants to play a back three, it’s hard to see how he’s in the starting XI, and even in that instance, Barton may favour Gibbons to the right of the trio.
Midfield
On the assumption it’ll be four at the back then it’ll be three in the middle or, as a variation, two holding midfielders and then a more advanced playmaker.
One name who will make an instant return to the side is Sam Finley; his energy, leadership, tenacity and consistency of performance has been sorely missed over these last three games and he brings presence and character at the base of midfield, plus can play a bit.
Against Oxford’s talented engine room of Cameron Brannagan and Lewis Bate winning the midfield battle will be integral to deciding the destiny of the contest and having Finley there not only boosts his team’s chances but makes his teammates better.
In terms of his partner, with no Jordan Rossiter it appears to be captain Paul Coutts or Grant Ward as playing all three of them would take away quite a bit of the Gas’ creativity. Coutts hasn’t started the last three games but did replace Ward against Burton so we’re kind of into Gordon/Macdonald territory.
Barton may feel Coutts’ nous and guiding hand is required, plus he maintains Rovers pass the ball better when he’s in the side, but their ball movement when he’s played of late has seemed a little slower and more ponderous. That then possibly gives reason for keeping Ward in the side who while a little unspectacular hasn’t done a great deal wrong since he arrived.
Lamare Bogarde should also be part of this conversation but his chances are hindered by the return of Finley and he may have to be content with a place on the bench. So too Luke McCormick who should have recovered from the illness that prevented his involvement against Buton.
That, of course, then leaves Antony Evans to play as the more advanced midfielder and he was one of the Gas’ better players last weekend.
Attack
Aaron Collins will start as a given, albeit with the goals and assists having dried up for the Welshman - just one goal in seven games - which could be a cause or result of the way Rovers are playing of late.
If we’re being honest Josh Coburn hasn’t looked right for a few weeks now, whether it be fatigue - due to the sheer volume of minutes he’s played in what is his first senior season - some kind of niggling injury, confidence or the illness which forced him to the bench last week, or probably a combination of the above.
Either way, it’d be a surprise to see him return to the line-up, especially given John Marquis’ goalscoring turn last week and the striker deserves another run in the side through the middle of the attack.
With one place left, it’s between Harry Anderson and Scott Sinclair as the wide forward and it could be another 50/50 decision here because while the former brings consistency, the latter ultimately has the x-factor and the higher ceiling which can decide a game like this. Barton has forecast a shoot-out in this one and it makes sense therefore to get a combination of his best and most in-form forwards on the pitch.
Bristol Rovers (4-3-3): Ellery Balcombe; James Gibbons, Jarell Quansah, Lewis Gibson, Lewis Gordon; Grant Ward, Sam Finley, Antony Evans; Scott Sinclair, John Marquis, Aaron Collins
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