Even the more ardent of data luddites will concede that one of Bristol City’s major failings was there in clear black and white numeric terms, each time the league table was looked upon: goals for - 62 (their second highest haul since returning to the Championship in 2015); goals against - 77 (their most since relegation in 2013).
In raw terms, City had the seventh-best attack in the Championship and the third-worst defence. Based on their league position of 17th, they overachieved on one and underachieved in the other. Had the latter problem been even among the mid-table range for that particular metric, the Robins would have been left with a goal difference of around +6, which would be in the top-10 conversation.
Going a little deeper into the defensive output reveals further horrors: 14.2 shots per game conceded (22nd overall), 53 goals conceded in open play (22nd) 15 goals via set-pieces (20th), seven penalties (23rd) and an overall expected goals against per game of 1.64 (22nd). Dan Bentley was also the joint-third busiest keeper in the Championship, making 126 saves - and he was out of the team for nine games at the start of this year.
As we’ve always been told the league table doesn’t lie and while you make decent argument in mitigation that 17th place isn’t completely reflective of the job Nigel Pearson did last season, given the refurbishment of the squad and club, coupled with the introduction of so much young talent, it’s a cast iron case that City’s defensive record was rotten.
The Robins were simply too easy to score against, Dan Bentley and Max O’Leary overly exposed and soft and avoidable goals conceded at an alarming rate. Pearson cited unforced errors in his post-season debrief on BBC Radio Bristol, as a particular bone of contention.
It ultimately prevented City from being the team he wants them to be; they developed into a pretty ruthless counter-attacking unit moving forward, but without suitable defensive foundations they were unable to turn defeats to draws, solitary points into three and be the sort of gritty, defiant side who opposition teams hate playing against.
We’re just over a week into the transfer window, City are yet to return for pre-season but there is a collective confidence that the Robins will be a better defensive team next season. That’s, in-part, fuelled by the way they finished the season - five goals conceded in six games - the theory that with a second season on his watch, plus the fact the bar was set to slow and the Robins simply can’t be that bad again.
Pearson should (with emphasis on that word) be able to get his defensive message across on the training ground for it to be then put into practice on a matchday - especially if he has more of the defenders he specifically wants - but, most crucially, the arrival of Kal Naismith on a free transfer from Luton Town and the new contract signed by Timm Klose. Bristol Live also understands Pearson remains in the market for at least one more centre-back, potentially two, depending on what unfolds over the next two-and-a-half months.
City have signed the best player from one of last season’s play-off teams with Naismith, while Klose had a very visible impact on the Robins defence, particularly towards the closing stages of the campaign having impressed since his January free transfer.
Within moments of Naismith signing, the question was floated out: who now makes up City’s best defence? Should Pearson revert back to a four? Or is a three the best way to go?
However, you want to play the game, and granted it’s only June 19, but there are a number of credible permutations as to how the Robins will line up at the back on July 30 - quite simply, there isn’t a right answer, as such.
In Naismith, aside from the Scot’s obvious attributes, Pearson has added greater tactical flexibility, depth and further built upon his leadership group. Having been scrabbling around for centre-backs at times last season, to the point Cam Pring was played as a left-sided centre-back for more than one game, Pearson now has 10 in the position and a bounty of options, depending on his approach for specific games.
That double digit figure is a bit of a misnomer, however, and touches upon the point of this article because of that 10, in truth, only three are in a position where you can definitively say they will be part of the first-team squad for 2022/23 beyond September 1: Naismith, Klose and Rob Atkinson.
That relatively small list doesn’t contain a man who before his groin injury had started a possible 34 of 36 games and finished the season as the Robins’ third-most used outfield player in terms of minutes: Tomas Kalas.
The Czech Republic international is entering the final 12 months of his contract which immediately sends off the transfer siren, especially when there has been no movement from the club over the last six months to offer him a new deal.
Kalas would like to remain a Robins, he’s well-settled in the area, but whether or not City can afford to keep him, is a different matter altogether. By now, it’s well-established that the 29-year-old is the highest paid player in the squad having signed on a club record deal from Chelsea three years ago.
He has, in the main, been good for City - albeit not always great, and with two seasons of collective defensive struggle - but that contract he signed in 2019 is very much unmanageable in the post-Covid landscape of professional football.
When Pearson spoke of trying to achieve a sense of “wage equality” in the squad, that’s essentially only achieved by bringing the top earners down and in football that can only really happen by moving them on, because footballers know their worth and aren’t really partial to taking voluntary pay-cuts.
Kalas is among a group of players on a weekly figure that the club would rather not be in the situation where they have to pay. That’s not his fault, in fact it’s not really anyone’s fault, as such, because the bottom has fallen out of football and City cannot make up the shortfall between revenue and wages with transfer revenue anymore.
Granted, there is an argument that it should never have been agreed in the first place, but that’s a strong three-years of hindsight you’ve just accumulated to make that call, sir, and we didn’t see anyone saying it in 2019.
This isn’t to say that City necessarily want to sell Kalas, he remains a high-end Championship defender who, Naismith aside given we’re yet to see him play for the club, is arguably the club’s “best” centre-back, with reservations admittedly. But Kalas is mostly consistent on an individual level and can deliver some monstrous performances when called upon.
Market forces
As his contract expires over the next 12 months, the concept of value is very much relevant and if there was a welcoming offer, from either within the Championship or abroad, it would have to be considered. Exactly whether or not that’s plausible is a different conversation, because what club at this level would voluntarily pay, let’s say, £2m for a player in his late 20s with little to no resale value, who they can sign for free in 12 months?
It’s therefore hard to see what market there is out there, but that doesn’t mean Kalas’ position is assured at Ashton Gate, at least not until the transfer window closes. Should that come to pass, then that likely means he’ll see out his remaining 12 months and everyone will reassess the position next summer.
Something that appears to be endlessly being reassessed is Robbie Cundy’s will-he, won’t-he contract situation as, with pre-season beginning next week, a player who became a cornerstone of the defence towards the end of the season in the absence of Kalas, could be in the weird position of technically being under contract - by virtue of 10 or so days, admittedly - but not at the club, given his offer remains unsigned.
June 15, 2021 was when Andi Weimann agreed to a new three-year deal - a week before pre-season kicked off, and when City’s retained list for 2022 was published on May 16, Pearson would undoubtedly have wanted the Cundy situation sorted by now.
The 25-year-old’s time at City has been an unorthodox one. Signed from Bath City in the summer of 2019, his arrival largely went unnoticed amidst the string of high-profile additions with the tall and powerful centre-back residing in the Under-23s before loan spells at Cambridge United and Gillingham then thrust him back into the spotlight, especially in the context of a Robins team that was struggling to defend the aerial ball.
But then disaster struck with a serious knee injury and it wasn’t until January 29 that he actually made his debut for the club - almost five months before his contract was due to expire.
Cundy made 14 appearances at the back-end of last season and, Barnsley aside, mostly impressed, albeit with improvements required, but he appears a solid fourth/fifth choice option for Pearson, depending on which defensive system he prefers.
And this could be the crux of the issue. Cundy has waited patiently for his chance at this level, through loan spells and serious injury, endless hours of lonely rehab and isolation, and although he’s been given a taste of being a first-team defender, the overall make-up of the squad, and his perceived place in the hierarchy, could be making him think again.
Does he want to spend another 2-3 years at a club, knowing he’ll be making 10-15 starts, when there are upwardly mobile League One clubs willing to offer him a more likely route into the first team.
Finance could change that, and also a lot of it is down to him to prove to Pearson what he’s capable of, but with just 11 days remaining of his City deal before he becomes a free agent, this feeling of indecision is increasingly leading to one conclusion.
We’re delving into speculation with a lot of that, but it’s also reasoned because Bristol Live has been trying to get to the bottom of Cundy’s situation for the last month and the only constant has been the raft of conflicting stories that have emerged from a number of sources, to such an extent it’s almost impossible to predict what may happen.
The concept of speculation is one that also leads us into the next centre-back, namely Nathan Baker who hasn’t played since November 28, 2021, following a second serious concussion in the space of five weeks, at Sheffield United.
It would be easy to regurgitate rumour and conjecture about Baker’s situation but that’s not really healthy or fair to the individual and a decision and announcement on his future will surely be made in the coming weeks as the squad return to Failand.
However, that paragraph alone very much taps into the thrust of where we’re going with all this - we simply don’t know, and it’s another senior defender who’s status moving forward is very much unclear.
On their way out
What is a little more certain is that, of that 10, some individuals are more likely to be departing the club than others, in particular Zak Vyner and Taylor Moore. The former has been a virtual outcast from the team since his first-half at Swansea City, with Pearson’s patience appearing to have torn and frayed significantly over the course of the season having handed him ample opportunities to find the reliability his manager craved.
Vyner appeared in eight matchday squads, but only set didn’t set foot on the pitch outside of 45 minutes against Peterborough, and was a prime suspect, along with Palmer, Moore and Tyreeq Bakinson when the manager revealed that four players don’t have a future at the club beyond this summer.
Bristol Live understands that Vyner has options, both in the Championship and League One, but is expected to report for pre-season this week and is unlikely to move until later in the window.
As for Moore, his last City appearance was on August 10 against Forest Green, and the 25-year-old just doesn’t appear the sort of defender that conforms to Pearson’s conception of the position. His loan spell at Hearts doesn’t appear to have convinced the Scottish Premiership club he’s worth paying a transfer fee for, but Moore still has a reputation strong enough to earn him a move into League One. Whether or not that will constitute a fee, is unclear. Both Vyner and Moore have a year remaining on their contracts, and it will be some surprise to see them in the squad by September 1.
That scenario isn’t as crystal clear when discussing likely loan departures, as whether or not to send Ryley Towler and Duncan Idehen out, could depend on a lot of what transpires further up this story. Both could undoubtedly do with a full season in the EFL, but if we run the scenario whereby Kalas, Cundy, Vyner, Moore and Baker either leave the club or aren’t available next season, can Pearson afford to loan out both prospects? Probably not unless two or more reinforcements arrive. And the more you require, the less realistic it becomes to achieve it.
Towler, as was reported last week, has sufficient interest throughout League One, and certainly a loan move to Cheltenham Town or Forest Green Rovers screams common sense, given how close in proximity it is and how sensibly run those clubs are, with positive environments to help young players grow. Idehen is a little rawer, and less developed in his career, so may have to drop into League Two for experience but equally Pearson may want to keep the 19-year-old closer to the first-team.
Effectively, a lot hinges on Cundy and Kalas. Those two staying or going dictates whether Pearson goes into the market for another one, two or even three centre-backs, and to a certain extent guides Towler and Idehen’s future over the next 12 months as well.
Kalas will be a slow burner - there may be bids, there may well not be - and the Czech is professional and experienced enough to get on with his job, irrespective of what may or may not happen. At least with Cundy, we should have some clarity over the next 10 days, bringing a semblance of certainty to the most fascinating department of the Bristol City squad at present.
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