It’s taken him roughly 16 months but Nigel Pearson appears to have reached a place at Bristol City where he’s comfortable to field his favoured formation - namely, the 4-3-3.
It was in December 2021 when the City manager revealed over time he would like to pivot to that system but he’s previously claimed he’s been held back by having the wrong type of midfielders.
The personnel hasn’t really changed much in that sense but perhaps the emergence of Kal Naismith as an option in that position, coupled with Alex Scott’s maturity and ability on both sides of the ball, has given Pearson greater confidence he has the requisite balance.
It was in the first game between the two sides that the system was used to good effect as City switched after half-time and secured a 1-1 draw leading to this replay tonight, and was further showcased in the 4-2 win over Birmingham City.
Given its success and the identity of tonight’s opponents, there’s every reason to suggest we could see City line up in that way again, further casting the wing-back system of the last 12-18 months into the past…
Goalkeeper and defence
It doesn’t take the most incisive of analysts to deduce that, outside of the first few months of last season, City have not been a good defensive team over Pearson’s reign and although previous systems have suited them in an attacking sense, it’s often left them short at the back.
Now, there is an argument that says although the Robins were victorious on Saturday they still looked a little vulnerable in defence, evidenced by the two goals conceded and the fact the expected goals difference between the two teams was marginal.
But City have been hampered by a lack of familiarity at times in their defensive shape, with too many players interchanging positions so, in short, if Pearson’s ideal moving forward is for a back it would make a lot of sense to keep faith with the five that started against Blues: Max O’Leary in goal, George Tanner at right-back, Zak Vyner and Rob Atkinson in the middle and Cam Pring at left-back.
The other consideration is that, really, outside of bringing Jay Dasilva in for Pring (and why on earth would you be dropping him after his 90 minutes on Saturday) there isn’t a lot of flexibility for the manager; Kane Wilson and Tomas Kalas are edging closer to a first-team return but seem more likely to play for the Under-21s than the senior side first, and Timm Klose just isn’t part of the first-team conversation any more with the Swiss potentially leaving over the next two weeks.
Unless the manager springs a huge surprise and decides to start Jamie Knight-Lebel or Duncan Idehen back there - which is highly unlikely - consistency is likely to be the operative word in that department.
Midfield
It’s a slightly different story further forward as while Matty James, Alex Scott and Naismith is his preferred trio, and all played well on the weekend, there is a cause for perhaps resting one or two.
Andy King, Han-Noah Massengo and, in particular, Joe Williams represent alternatives if James or Scott are needed to be taken out of the firing line, in preparation for this Saturday’s visit of Blackburn Rovers.
But the truth is that whenever either of those players have been fit under Pearson, they’ve started, and the only likely candidate to drop out of the starting XI is Naismith, with Williams the anticipated promotion.
Then again, the Scot is still slightly feeling his way into the position and would benefit from another start especially against such a possession-heavy team as Swansea who offer a very different challenge to Birmingham.
As a side discussion, as was the case in the original tie, the ability to name nine substitutes means that Dylan Kadji and Omar Taylor-Clarke should be part of the matchday squad, while there’s a chance that Elijah Morrison also earns a bench spot.
Attack
In normal circumstances, this department would be ripe for a bit of freshening up, even though Nahki Wells, Semenyo and Mark Sykes all found the target on Saturday; with so many striking options at his disposal, cup competitions allow Pearson to manage minutes and ensure his frontmen are primed for the league campaign.
However, with Andi Weimann and Tommy Conway sidelined due to hamstring injuries and Chris Martin also out of favour, the only possible candidate to come into the starting XI is Sam Bell.
The 20-year-old has been in prolific form for the Under-21s all season and been on the fringes of the first team, making six substitute appearances, and this could be an opportunity to hand him a first start since March 2022, in what would be a favoured role and formation.
But the chemistry of the trio improving, and the need to build on what was produced against Birmingham, deems that unlikely, at least from the start of the game, and while Bell will surely get on and play some part, the starting three will remain the same.
Bristol City (4-3-3): Max O’Leary; George Tanner, Zak Vyner, Rob Atkinson, Cam Pring; Kal Naismith, Matty James, Alex Scott; Mark Sykes, Nahki Wells, Antoine Semenyo
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