It’s a small benchmark but a significant one to some extent as despite having secured their Championship status for another season a while ago - and, yes, that should be the bare minimum in terms of aspirations - Bristol City are still to beat their points total from last term.
Nigel Pearson isn’t particularly keen to measure progress through the very raw and un-nuanced lens of league position but with the Robins likely, however these next three games pan out, to be once again occupying the mid to lower-mid-table region of the standings, the least they can do to display a tangible step forward is by exceeding 55 points.
That requires either one more win or three draws from their matches against Rotherham United and Burnley at Ashton Gate and QPR on the final day of the season, and given the middle side are pretty formidable, with all due respect to the Millers, it’s an eminently more winnable fixture as they bid farewell to their home support for the summer.
That being said, the opposition are still immersed in a relegation battle and although they hold a three-point advantage on Reading in 21st, a lot can change in a weekend and victory in BS3 for them would go a long way to securing survival.
City will therefore need to likely exceed their performances recently delivered against Watford and Sheffield United and match positivity and encouraging build-up with some more teeth in the final third. Here’s is how we think the Robins will line up in their penultimate home fixture of 2022/23…
Goalkeeper and defence
It’s a completely irrelevant point to make, really, but it’s a shame in a way that Stefan Bajic isn’t in the building at present because these next three games represent a prime opportunity to give the Frenchman some first-team minutes and see how he performs leading into the summer.
It may be the case that Nigel Pearson grants Harvey Wiles-Richards a debut between now and May 8 but the likelihood is, if that happens, it’ll be in the QPR game rather than this fixture and Max O’Leary should keep his place against the Millers.
That said, his performance came under the microscope at Watford and he could do with a strong flourish to the campaign just to cement his No1 status and try to dampen, rather than increase, the consideration that City could or should be in the market for an additional goalkeeper.
In front of him, it’ll likely be a case of more of the game. Kane Wilson still isn’t part of the senior conversation, or even the Under-21 squad for that matter, leaving George Tanner’s competition at right-back as the untested but promising Harry Leeson.
Barring injury, Zak Vyner should play the season out at centre-back and given Tomas Kalas isn’t ready for a return yet, and might not be again in a red shirt, Cam Pring could well partner him over these remaining three matches.
There is, once again, the chance to field Kal Naismith there but Pearson seems to consider the Scot as a midfielder these days, particularly with the Robins in a back four, and also clearly his injury return is being carefully managed.
Pring’s place in the middle also means Jay Dasilva is free continue at left-back, which is presenting an increasingly curious situation whereby the strong impression is that the 24-year-old will be leaving at the end of the season, something that has been the case since January, but is experiencing one of his longest runs in the team under Pearson.
Granted, that is yet to be properly decided but it does bring the argument that maybe the manager would like to keep him around, providing the right deal can be struck.
Midfield
Prior to the Sheffield United game, given the frequency of matches the Robins will have played after full-time today - five games in 16 days - you’d have probably forecast that having not been selected at Bramall Lane, one or both of Alex Scott and Naismith would be starting this game.
However, two facts render that increasingly improbable. Firstly, the performances of Matty James and Andy King at the pivot, as both enjoyed fine games in Yorkshire, using the ball efficiently and consistently and selection according to Nigel’s Law dictates that both veterans should keep their place.
There’s also the fact that Pearson was so critical of his replacements that came on for the second half - Mark Sykes, Alex Scott and Tommy Conway - so it would seem slightly hypocritical to then reward one or all of them a start four days later.
Pearson did ever-so slightly play down his previous criticism, when speaking to media on Friday, but does tend to be a man of his word and if Sykes, Scott and Conway - all first-team regulars this season when fit - want to get back into the XI, then they have to earn their place.
Joe Williams is a shout to make the matchday 18, meanwhile, having trained this week after his hamstring injury against Cardiff City at the start of March which threatened to end his season. His return could therefore push Omar Taylor-Clarke out of the squad.
The only place, if any, that is up for grabs is probably the No10 spot currently held by Andi Weimann who hasn’t quite convinced in recent weeks and you could certainly present a case for giving Anis Mehmeti a go there.
With the game at home, and a more conservative midfield pairing in James and Scott, City need some extra creativity in there, plus Pearson might want a long-term look at the 22-year-old in that role and perhaps, with once again the greatest of respect to Rotherham, they’re a better opponent for him to face than, say, Burnley.
It could come down to who has trained better over the last 24 hours which, sadly, we're not privy to at this moment in time.
Attack
We’ve already mentioned Conway and you have to think that had he made some kind of an impact against the Blades, he’d be in prime position to start today but Pearson’s frustration will surely mean that Nahki Wells continues through the middle and will make his sixth consecutive start, although it's almost two months since his last goal for the club.
On the right, with the debate previously being Harry Cornick vs Weimann and the former largely winning, Sykes’ return from suspension threatened to complicate that further but, like Conway and Scott, he didn’t do the business at Bramall Lane and will have to wait his turn.
That just leaves the left-hand side then and the aforementioned Mehmeti is a contender on that flank but Sam Bell was possibly the Robins’ best attacking player in midweek and has delivered four decent performances on the spin now, so it seems hard to imagine Pearson taking him out of the action.
Bristol City (4-2-1-3): Max O’Leary; George Tanner, Zak Vyner, Cam Pring, Jay Dasilva; Matty James, Andy King; Anis Mehmeti; Harry Cornick, Nahki Wells, Sam Bell
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