Nigel Pearson is a man of his word but he’s likely to have that concept tested today against Cardiff City as while the idea, “you should never change a winning team rings true”, it’s not quite as straightforward as that.
Pearson made two changes to his line-up from the draw at Wigan Athletic to the win over Luton Town but they weren’t just tactical, with a need to preserve energy for the Severnside Derby with the idea that certain individuals are also needed for certain occasions.
But with City delivering one of their most cohesive collective performances of Pearson’s tenure against the Hatters, how much will Pearson stick to his mantra of maintaining faith with those in possession of the shirt, and will that mean some difficult words to some individuals who were stood down against Luton with Cardiff in mind?
Here’s how we think the Robins will line up at Ashton Gate this lunchtime…
Goalkeeper and defence
It went a little unnoticed, outside of the moment, but Dan Bentley’s low save, as he quickly shifted his weight from one leg to another, to deny Gabriel Osho in injury time on Tuesday night was an important one. Rob Atkinson hooked the parry away to complete the job but having had almost nothing to do, bar a few grabs and punches at crosses, the City No1 maintained his concentration levels to get down and make the stop.
Had that trickled into the corner, familiar feelings of self-doubt, anxiety and paranoia would have crept into Ashton Gate for the closing stages, not just on the pitch but in the stands, and after that effort the Robins were able to successfully see out the match.
Although the goals against column isn’t spectacular, Bentley has enjoyed a quietly solid start to the season and will continue to occupy the Robins goal with Max O’Leary deputising and Stefan Bajic still 2-3 weeks away from being in contention, which will likely begin with Under-21 football as opposed to the first-team.
In front of Bentley, Nigel Pearson hasn’t been particularly forthcoming over the availability of Tomas Kalas so the expectation is that the Czech remains injured, leaving him with the same four senior centre-backs plus Ryley Towler who until a new defender arrives, will remain in the senior set-up.
Kal Naismith, Zak Vyner and Rob Atkinson all delivered, collectively and individually, their best performances of the season so far which means an unchanged defence, even if Timm Klose did come on for the final nine minutes to help solidify matters back there. Pearson would be loathed to change a defence that has just kept a clean sheet and has no reason to.
Jay Dasilva was also excellent against the Hatters so should start again, pushing Cam Pring out of contention. The 24-year-old was at Ashton Gate on Tuesday and travelled with the squad down from the High Performance Centre but wasn’t included in the 18 for the third time this season.
It’s over on the right where there’ll definitely be a change as Mark Sykes serves his suspension for the red card on Tuesday night. In many ways, it’ll be something of a reset as, up until the day before the final friendly of pre-season, Kane Wilson was City’s first-choice right wing-back but a knock sustained in that game allowed Sykes a different route into the team and such has been the Irishman’s form, his fellow summer arrival hasn’t been able to find a place in the team in the league.
That should change against Cardiff and it’s going to be fascinating to see him up against Callum O’Dowda on what will be his full Championship debut having been limited to just 56 minutes off the bench so far.
We shouldn’t, of course, forget George Tanner who probably represents the more defence-first option but, at home, and with confidence up to go and attack the opposition, Wilson looks the most likely option on the right.
Midfield
Here’s where Pearson’s principles are tested because had the Luton game been a week on from Wigan Athletic, the likelihood is that Joe Williams would have partnered Alex Scott in the middle. But because it fell just four days after the 1-1 draw at the DW Stadium, as we know, there’s too much risk of starting Williams for two games inside a week which opened the door for Han-Noah Massengo.
And, you have to say, he very much took his change with typical energy and endeavour but also real class on the ball, opening up the Luton defence for the second goal of the game and playing with a sense of purpose and presence.
The question for Pearson therefore is, does he bring back his nominal “first-choice” midfielder in Williams, who came on in the second half but will now be deemed fit enough to start, or reward Massengo for his positive performance. You can make the case either way but two factors may swing it the way of the Scouser.
Firstly, the fact it is a derby and all the pressure and intensity that entails and Williams is equally the sort of combative character you want in the middle of the park for these games but has the necessary experience to cope with the occasion.
That’s not to say Massengo doesn’t, as he’s played against Cardiff three times already for City, but with Scott’s selection almost a given, Pearson may feel slight unease at going with such a young central midfield pairing again. There’s also the consideration of consistency and having drawn one fine performance out of them as a duo, is a second possible in such a short space of time?
And, finally, although he denied it on Friday when speaking to the media, Massengo’s contract situation has to be a consideration of some kind, even if it’s just 10 per cent of the thought-process. Williams is very much in for the long haul and, right now, we don’t know what Massengo’s intentions are or if he’ll be playing for the club beyond September 1; as it stands, he most likely will, but the contract situation still hangs over him to a degree and that’s what might tip the scales ever so slightly in Williams’ favour.
Pearson did admit on Friday he was checking on a few individuals over the next 24 hours which could include Matty James but, for now, that would be simply guesswork and the expectation is that the 30-year-old won’t be ready.
Attack
The second conundrum for the manager is what do to with Chris Martin who was in a similar situation to Williams in the sense that the Luton games perhaps allowed Pearson to give the veteran a bit of a breather - Nathan Jones admitted after the match he expected Martin to start alongside Tommy Conway.
The plan could have been to sit the 33-year-old, with a means of starting him against the Bluebirds today, which would have seemed like a sensible strategy. Except, Nahki Wells has only gone and complicated matters by delivering a fine performance against the Hatters to thrust himself front and centre to retain his place.
Ultimately, the decision comes down to styles and approach and how Pearson wants to play against Cardiff, plus is there a need to negate any of their threats. We say that with reference, though, to the Bluebirds teams of old who were very much focused on set-piece and aerial dominance and for those sides, Martin would unquestionably be in the XI.
But Steve Morison is evolving his team beyond those stereotypes and they are no long that abrasive, direct outfit of old - only Hull and Blackburn Rovers average fewer crosses per game this season and they rank 11th for long balls per game and 13th for sort passes. That means that Martin may not be as needed in a defensive sense, especially with Atkinson, Vyner and Naismith back there, albeit with the rest of the team pretty small.
Therefore it falls on the attacking strategy and, inadvertently, the introduction of Wilson could have an impact here given the 22-year-old’s proficiency of getting into advanced positions and delivering fine crosses, as opposed to Sykes who’s more of a dribbler and naturally cuts infield to attack the penalty area.
If Wilson is assigned to cross the ball, Martin could come back into the equation, in place of either Wells or Conway - Andi Weimann’s is a lock whether that be in the front two or as a No10.
For all that debate, however, you just feel that such was the potency of Wells and Conway together in attack against Luton, unless there are any kind of physical concerns, it just makes sense to keep that chemistry and combination going and Martin represents a strong option off the bench.
City did tease an Antoine Semenyo training picture on Saturday, showing the forward back among the group having been working on his own in midweek but Pearson insisted on Friday there was still “no timeline” for his return, having previously said he’d ideally not put either the 22-year-old or Kalas back into the team without some minutes, off the bench or for the Under-21s.
Bristol City (3-4-1-2): Dan Bentley; Zak Vyner, Kal Naismith, Rob Atkinson; Kane Wilson, Alex Scott, Joe Williams, Jay Dasilva; Andi Weimann; Tommy Conway, Nahki Wells
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