Nigel Pearson’s selection at Blackpool essentially comes down to two factors: With Andi Weimann and without Andi Weimann.
It’s testament to the importance of the Austrian that his availability at Bloomfield Road has such a huge bearing on how the rest of the team looks, although if Pearson does have to make changes they’ll like be minimal given Bristol City’s form over these last five matches.
Four wins in league and cup, 12 goals scored and just three conceded, the Robins have successfully dispelled any lingering anxiety from the opening two games of the season which were, if we’re being honest, a little knee-jerk and over the top, as the manager himself intimated in midweek in the wake of their latest win over Wycombe Wanderers.
But you’re too far from a crisis in football, or at least perceptions of one, and City’s record at Bloomfield Road isn’t a particularly impressive one: they're not beaten them for seven games, while the 3-1 defeat last season - in which they were outplayed and, for a large part, outfought - still stings.
Ahead of City’s game against Michael Appleton’s Seasiders, here’s how we think the Robins will line up…
Goalkeeper and defence
Professional sport is brutal and even in the framework of a team, individuals have to battle constant rejection and disappointment and none so more than Max O’Leary in this current squad. If there was any doubt as to his position in the squad in terms of his future, it was spelled out at Adams Park where Dan Bentley was preferred in goal.
Of course, Bentley is City’s No1 and captain and Pearson did select a strong line-up to beat the League One side and progress into the third round but changing the goalkeeper for a Carabao Cup clash against lower league opposition wouldn’t have been a huge surprise.
But O’Leary remains Bentley’s deputy and perhaps lower than that, depending on what’s happening with Stefan Bajic’s fitness with the Frenchman potentially set to play for the Under-21s this week. If he doesn, and passes the test, that could lead to O’Leary being loaned out, as was the original plan. Either way, Bentley is starting against Blackpool.
Timm Klose came in and did a solid enough job in the back three in Buckinghamshire but following the wins, and clean sheets, against Cardiff City and Luton Town, Pearson has no reason to deviate from his established trio of Zak Vyner, Kal Naismith and Rob Atkinson, with the three developing a real understanding back there.
As and when Tomas Kalas returns to match fitness poses a question for changing it, but right now City are looking as strong defensively as they have ever done under Pearson.
Jay Dasilva’s season may have started a little slowly but he’s very much locked down the left wing-back spot, even with Cam Pring’s appearance in midweek. It’s on the right where the real dilemma lies.
Mark Sykes will serve the final game of his suspension which leaves Pearson with just three to choose from out there; which, following last season’s shenanigans in the position, is some luxury for him.
George Tanner played as a right-sided centre-back against Wycombe, which isn’t his position as such, but the fact he was stationed there and Kane Wilson outside him indicates that, as was the case in pre-season, the summer arrival is ahead of him in that particular positional race.
Or, you could also make the case, it’s because Tanner is just that slightly bit more versatile and more of the sure-fire defensive option. Certainly a tough away day at Blackpool could lean Pearson towards taking a safe option. But having an attacking option down that flank is absolutely vital to how City play and although Wilson wasn’t at his very best against Wycombe - albeit finishing the game with a goal and an assist - he seems the most appropriate option.
Where it gets complicated, as will be a theme of all this, is with Weimann. If the Austrian is fit that pushes Alex Scott - who’s been excellent in recent weeks - out of the midfield picture (which will explain in a bit), meaning the only route for him in the team, as was the case against Cardiff, is at right wing-back. That could therefore mean that Wilson misses out yet again on a first Championship start.
If Weimann can’t make it, then Scott probably occupies the No10 spot, or as a deeper midfielder, and that then allows Wilson to come into the starting XI.
Midfield
Pearson’s decision-making has widened by the return of Matty James who, traditionally, has been an automatic starter since the beginning of last season whenever he’s been fit. However, unlikely previous games where his return as organiser has been welcomed as something of a missing piece, City’s midfield has flourished in his absence.
Han-Noah Massengo, Scott and Joe Williams were all excellent against Cardiff, while the former two also enjoyed strong showings when Luton were beaten 2-0 at Ashton Gate in the preceding fixture.
If James is to come back into the team, Pearson has to have a difficult conversation with someone who’s playing well, something that would go against his principles.
The likelihood is, should it come to pass, that it’ll be Massengo, simply because of his contract situation, with September 1 looming and uncertainty remaining as to where he’ll be playing his football beyond Thursday and whether City can afford to keep him, given his expiring agreement.
Having sat down Wycombe, Williams should return into the middle, while Scott’s place as either creator or auxiliary wing-back should guarantee him a spot in the XI somewhere. The James-Massengo conundrum however is not an easy one, only added to the fact that the team had minimal time on the training ground on Friday so it’s not as if someone was able to put their hand up for selection in that sense. If Pearson sticks to his maxims, then surely Massengo starts.
As mentioned in the defensive section, Weimann’s fitness alters a lot but such is the importance of the Austrian to the team, you just feel that even if he’s 80-90 per cent fit, he’ll start with alternatives on the bench and the option to make five substitutions, so playing 60 minutes won’t impact the game plan elsewhere.
Pearson wasn't exactly forthcoming with information over his status on Wednesday, which one way or the other was deliberate, either to try and alter Appleton's preparation or slightly fudge the fact that he will definitely be missing.
Let's also not forget Dylan Kadji following his eye-catching debut display against the Chairboys, but the 18-year-old is still quite a few injuries to senior players away from making his Championship bow.
Attack
Like James, Antoine Semenyo’s return makes this all far from straightforward, or does it? On the one hand, the 22-year-old is simply too good and too impactful a player not to select, his cameo against Wycombe bore witness to that and, based on previous evidence, the Ghana international could even come back a better player than the one down the second half of last season, which is a scary concept.
Then again, two factors indicate he’ll likely start again on the bench. Firstly, that was his first competitive football for two-and-a-half months, to go from 20 minutes against League One opposition to a Championship start in the space of three days is a big leap, irrespective of how good he is. It just seems logical to continue to ease him back with the option of having him on the bench, to bring on in the second-half, a real weapon for Pearson to possess.
Secondly, and most importantly, there is no need to change it up there. Tommy Conway and Nahki Wells are functioning exceptionally well as a partnership, and breaking up that chemistry, even in light of the different challenges that Blackpool may pose, seems unnecessary at this moment of time.
You could make the case that Chris Martin brings the physicality but, then again, Blackpool aren’t maybe as physical a team as Cardiff were, even with all their stylistic changes, and Conway and Wells, at times, ripped them apart.
Again, if Weimann is out, Pearson will want to make as few changes from the team that took on the Bluebirds as possible so altering his attack only increases that. And if the Austrian can take to the field, he’ll want to keep his counter-attacking trio together. Providing City’s top scorer is on the bus, for all the selection posers now at his disposal, Pearson is likely to be unchanged, but this time with a significant boosted bench.
Bristol City (3-5-2): Dan Bentley; Zak Vyner, Kal Naismith, Rob Atkinson; Alex Scott, Joe Williams, Han-Noah Massengo, Jay Dasilva; Andi Weimann; Tommy Conway; Nahki Wells
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