Bristol is among the 20 most at-risk places in England for properties to be lost to sea level rise in the next 30 years, according to a study released today (June 15). Nearly 200,000 English properties are at risk of being abandoned by the 2050s according to lead author Paul Sayers, an expert on flood and coastal risks.
Bristol city was named among 20 local authorities that have 2,000 or more properties at risk of being lost to sea level rise, with neighbouring North Somerset topping the national list at number one followed by Sedgemoor also in Somerset. Researchers say since sea level rise responds relatively slowly to changes in global temperatures, these risks in the 2050s are "now almost inevitable, even if emissions are now cut rapidly".
However, they say faster emission cuts will greatly reduce the amount of sea level rise later this century and beyond. Bristol is not the only South West region at risk, with Gloucester and Cornwall also being identified as having at least 2,000 properties under threat.
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The total value of the properties at risk is likely to be tens of billions as the average coastal home has risen to £287,000. Mr Sayers, an expert on flood and coastal risks who works with the Tyndall Centre at University of East Anglia and advises the Climate Change Committee, said: “Significant sea-level rise is now inevitable.
"For many of our larger cities at the coast, protection will continue to be provided, but for some coastal communities, this may not be possible. We need a serious national debate about the scale of the threat to these communities and what represents a fair and sustainable response, including how to help people to relocate.”
The experts have urged the Government to face the challenge, warning that postponing hard choices has consequences. Bristol ranked in 13th place in the list.
A Defra spokesperson said: “We recognise the threat from climate change and sea-level rise, which is why are investing a record £5.2 billion from 2021 in flood and coastal defences to better protect properties along our coasts.
“Our Coastal Transition Accelerator Programme is also exploring innovative approaches to adapt to the effects of coastal erosion, and shoreline Management Plans will outline long-term plans to manage the risk of coastal change over the next 100 years.”
The types of areas most at risk from sea-level rise include:
- Communities containing dispersed clusters of properties on a long floodplain e.g Somerset levels, East Coast and North West
- Small quay and coastal harbours communities e.g. quays across Cornwall - low-lying properties squeezed between a rising ground and harbour quay walls
- A narrow floodplain, with properties on, constrained between the shoreline and raising ground e.g. Dawlish (Dawlish is being protected but other places like this may not be so lucky) - often roads and railways run along with these areas
The areas with 2,000 or more properties most at risk
- North Somerset
- Sedgemoor
- Eastbourne
- Wyre
- North East Lincolnshire
- Warrington
- Swale
- Dover
- Portsmouth
- Tendring
- Ipswich
- Gloucester
- Bristol City
- Maldon
- Adur
- Cornwall
- East Devon
- East Lindsey
- East Suffolk
- West Lancashire
Homes to be lost in this mortgage cycle
Which? reports that in March 2020, 41% of mortgages had terms longer than 25 years and the median first-time buyer mortgage now lasts for 30 years. Researchers say, therefore, that many people may be buying houses or paying off mortgages on properties which will not be habitable or will be within a few years of being abandoned by the end of the mortgage term.
Most people who are likely to be in this situation will be unaware of it and there is currently no government scheme to help them, they say. Professor Jim Hall, Professor of Climate and Environmental Risks and former Director of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, said: “We need to have honest conversations with coastal communities that it will simply not be possible to protect every house and business from sea level rise.
"These changes are coming sooner than we might think and we need to plan now for how we can adjust, including a nationwide strategic approach to deciding how to manage the coast sustainably in the future.”
The study assessed a number of factors to determine the likely pressure for relocation including the type of settlement and landscape, the existing local authority plan, the economic case for continuing to protect properties, and shoreline vulnerability. It has been published in the Ocean and Coastal Management journal and is titled 'Responding to climate change around England’s coast - The scale of the transformational change'.
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