Queensland's property prices are moving further out of reach for first home buyers with new figures showing values in some suburbs jumped more than 40 per cent in the 12 months to March.
Eliza Owen, head of research at property analysis firm CoreLogic, said some areas considered affordable are now rising in value due to a "spillover" from demand in Brisbane.
In Logan and Beaudesert, Cedar Grove and Cedar Vale rose by 44 and 42 per cent, respectively – though their median values are still lower than the median across Greater Brisbane.
Ms Owen said Brisbane property values rose by 2 per cent in the month of March and by 29 per cent over the last 12 months. The figure for detached houses was even greater.
"In detached houses we've seen an increase of about 32 per cent over the year which is the equivalent of the median price level rising by about $200,000 in the space of a year," she said.
That takes the median value of a detached property in Greater Brisbane to $856,731 — a record high.
"This strong growth rate is something that's happening off the back of prices that were already relatively high, coming into COVID in terms of affordability and relative incomes in the area."
But she warned a predicted rise in interest rates could see Brisbane follow Sydney and Melbourne, where values are softening.
Most of the suburbs that recorded the biggest rises in values over 12 months were located south of the Brisbane River. Fairfield rose by almost 46 per cent in the last year.
Suburb |
Region |
12 month change in home value index |
Median value March 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
Fairfield |
Brisbane — South |
45.9% |
$1,402, 986 |
Ninderry |
Sunshine Coast |
45.4% |
$1,322,902 |
Robertson |
Brisbane — South |
44.7% |
$1,600,324 |
| Mermaid Beach | Gold Coast |
44.5% |
$2,726,575 |
| Curra | Wide Bay |
44.5% |
$561,749 |
| Cedar Grove | Logan — Beaudesert |
44.3% |
$763,947 |
The Palms |
Wide Bay |
44.1% |
$655,950 |
Miami |
Gold Coast |
43.2% |
$1,581,754 |
Cedar Vale |
Logan — Beaudesert |
42.7% |
$823,559 |
Valdora |
Sunshine Coast |
42.3% |
$1,411,575 |
The winning bid
The record high in median values didn't deter some buyers in Brisbane on Saturday.
Raj and Reenu Bakshir finally lodged the winning bid on a home in Agnew Street, Norman Park after attending five or six auctions in the past couple of months.
The three-bedroom pre-war home sold for $980,000 – 41 per cent higher than its last sale price in 2016.
"We are very happy with this price because we have been looking at a lot of properties in the last three months and they all just went up, up and up at auction," Mr Bakshir said.
He said it felt like prices had stabilised in the last month, which he hoped would mean more "normal working people" could buy homes with less competition from developers and builders.
Dustin Wardrope was also bidding on the Agnew Street home. He'd been hoping to upgrade from a townhouse he bought in 2017.
"This place was just down the road, and it took my interest because of the age of it. I thought it might go for a bit less than some of the other houses around the area," Mr Wardrope said.
He said he felt lucky he bought his townhouse five years ago when property prices were lower.
"It was pretty much the only thing I could afford with the first home owners' grant at the time, so I got my stamp duty off which was a real help," he said.
"Seeing some of the houses that sold at the same time, if I had another couple of hundred thousand dollars, I would have bought those, but in five years the prices have just exploded. It's ridiculous."
Changing their criteria
Real estate agent Dan Elliott said even at $980,000, the Agnew Street property was still an "entry level property" for the area. He said some first home buyers are still in the market.
"The [first home buyers] are getting finance help from their parents with loans and things like that and they are doing everything they can possibly do to get in," Mr Elliott said.
He said with the rise in house values many people were shifting their expectations about what they want from a home.
"A lot of people have changed their criteria over the last 18 months, just because of those property price increases, so they're changing from houses to large town homes," he said.
"If they want a specific area and they've got a budget, then they're capped out which changes what they can buy, or they're moving out a bit further."
One of the places they're moving is Logan Central. CoreLogic data shows the median value of properties there rose by 13.5 per cent in the last year to $457,745.
Outside south-east Queensland, the Wide Bay region experienced some of the biggest quarterly growth. Gin Gin experienced a rise of 11.3 per cent, Woodgate 11.5 per cent and Gympie a rise of 10.4 per cent.
According to the data, the median value in home in the Brisbane city riverside suburb of Teneriffe Is sitting at $2,947,585 — the most expensive in the state.
The cheapest is Collinsville in Central Queensland at $122,121.
Suburb |
Region |
12 month change in home value index |
Median value March 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
Collinsville |
Mackay — Isaac — Whitsunday |
17.1% |
$122,121 |
Mount Morgan |
Central Queensland |
11.2% |
$141,907 |
Dysart |
Mackay — Isaac —Whitsunday |
17.3% |
$147,313 |
Monto |
Wide Bay |
28.2% |
$156,101 |
Blackwater |
Central Queensland |
9.0% |
$162,896 |
Ingham |
Townsville |
12.4% |
$164,687 |
Jandowae |
Darling Downs — Maranoa |
31.4% |
$168,951 |
Home Hill |
Townsville |
17.8% |
$171,817 |
Mundubbera |
Wide Bay |
15.6% |
$183,151 |
Depot Hill |
Central Queensland |
9.1% |
$190,194 |
Brisbane behind Sydney, Melbourne
Ms Owen said the property market in Sydney and Melbourne is beginning a "downswing" and it's likely Brisbane may follow.
"We've seen a 0.2 per cent fall in values across Sydney over the month of March, but basically what we are seeing in Brisbane now is a little bit lagged to those other capital cities," she said.
"Brisbane has just come off its' peak monthly growth rates in the December quarter and that is the kind of pattern we were seeing across Sydney and Melbourne about halfway through 2021."
She said it was hard to predict what interest rate rises might do to the property market, but it could push the south-east Queensland property values down.
"Alongside a change in the cash rate, you don't know what kind of government policies are going to be in play and you don't know what's going to be happening in terms of economic performance necessarily," Ms Owen said.
"It makes sense to me that higher mortgage rates could be the thing that eventually pushes Brisbane into the downswing, but I think it's going to be impossible to say how much prices could actually fall."
