In the mess of Brexit, problems with the Protocol and the Tories holding power at Westminster, how has nationalism failed so comprehensively to grow support for Irish unity?
Just 30% of people would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow, according to the latest opinion poll by the University of Liverpool/Irish News.
The figure increases in the longer term but not by much, with 33.4% saying they would back Irish unity in 15-20 years' time.
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This is less than the combined 39.8% of first-preference votes Sinn Féin and the SDLP won in the last Stormont Assembly election in 2017.
Support for Irish unity fell further when those surveyed were presented with the prospect of higher taxes or paying for healthcare currently provided for free via the NHS.
Proponents of a so-called "new Ireland" are taking comfort in how there is no majority for remaining in the United Kingdom either, sitting at 45.3%.
For both sides therefore the task remains winning over support from the 24.7% who neither agree nor disagree.
But nationalism also has challenges south of the border, where a survey last year suggested many are opposed to changing anything about the Republic to accommodate Irish unity.
While most supported a united Ireland, a majority said they would not accept higher taxes, spending cuts, a new flag or national anthem.
It is little wonder then that Sinn Féin is changing tack in the current Stormont Assembly election campaign.
The republican party has been downplaying its border poll ambitions as they seek to win broader support in their bid to overtake the DUP as the largest grouping at Stormont.
"I don't think people woke up this morning thinking about that," said Sinn Féin deputy leader Michelle O'Neill this week in response to the latest Irish unity poll.
She said there would come a day when people would vote on Northern Ireland's constitutional future, but their focus currently was on cost-of-living pressures.
SDLP leader Colum Eastwood accused Sinn Féin of being "slow learners as usual" in shifting from the "fantasyland" of constantly calling for an immediate border poll.
"That work has to be done of course, the conversation has to be heard, but people are struggling every single day and Sinn Féin four weeks out from an election are now beginning to talk about people’s problems instead of talking about border polls," he said.
Sinn Féin's focus is not on the SDLP but on outmaneuvering the DUP, which is increasingly making unionist fears of a border poll the focus of its pitch to voters.
DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson claims Sinn Féin winning the most seats in May's election, and thus being entitled to the First Minister post, would lead to years of disputes over a referendum.
"The choice at this election is both clear and stark. Sinn Féin wants a mandate for a destabilising and divisive border poll. They do not hide their desire," he said.
"They want to plunge Northern Ireland into years of division and uncertainty."
It is a bit rich from a party that in February collapsed the Stormont Executive in protest over Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol - and is actively seeking a mandate to not return anytime soon.
And of course the post of First Minister - joint and equal to the Deputy First Minister - has no power at all in deciding when or if a border poll is ever called. That responsibility lies with the Secretary of State.
It is also hard to believe Sinn Féin's raison d'etre has been put on the back burner. Instead, the republican party is playing the long game.
If the party enters government on both sides of the border in the next few years as polls predict, they will inevitably use such optics to lobby for an Irish unity referendum.
But that is a very distant prospect. For now, hospital waiting lists, schools, the cost of living and many other issues devolved to Stormont are where politicians can and should effect change.
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