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Brendan Hughes

Brendan Hughes: DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson must find a way of saving face

A party conference is usually a chance for politicians to drum up some publicity in a bid to woo voters.

It is not always so plain-sailing, as Prime Minister Liz Truss discovered when the Conservative conference this week was overshadowed by her tax U-turn and Tory dissent.

But despite the challenges, it is still customary for the party leader to do a round of interviews with several media outlets to set out their stall.

Read more: Brendan Hughes: Political unionism only has itself to blame for optics

Ms Truss may be fighting to resuscitate her fledgling premiership amid dismal poll ratings, but she still braved a series of press grillings to pitch her policies to the public.

Not so for Sir Jeffrey Donaldson. The DUP's conference this weekend, despite being its first since the Covid-19 pandemic, is conspicuously low-key.

The party has said the DUP leader will not be doing any interviews ahead of the conference. It is still possible he could crop up somewhere, but the custom of a full set of pre-conference media appearances has been abandoned.

It appears AWOL Sir Jeffrey has spoken more times this week to loyalist activist Jamie Bryson than addressing the public.

His absence may reflect how there is little for unionism to cheer about going into this conference.

It is the first since the DUP in May lost its position as the largest party at Stormont to Sinn Fein.

It is the first since the internal party turmoil that saw the ousting of Arlene Foster and her brief successor Edwin Poots. The conference being held in the same Belfast hotel where much of the drama unfolded may bring back some uncomfortable memories.

Just weeks ago Census results revealed some worrying trends for unionism, with the number of people who have a British-only identity falling to under a third of the Northern Ireland population.

A rekindling of relations between London, Dublin and Brussels in a bid to resolve the Northern Ireland Protocol deadlock will raise unionist fears of once again being cast aside in the Brexit process.

And to top it all off, the Queen is dead.

With such a weak hand, it will be a significant challenge for Sir Jeffrey to muster a rousing speech on Saturday that rallies the party faithful.

The conference is almost an awkward distraction from the party's HQ gaming out various scenarios for the coming weeks as the October 28 deadline looms for restoring Stormont power-sharing.

In theory a deal might be struck on the protocol which the DUP could sell as a win and re-establish the Executive, but achieving this in less than three weeks seems unlikely.

No-one believes the British government will act on threats to call a winter Assembly election, as negotiations would be paused and Stormont parties would revert to their trenches. Emergency Westminster legislation to push back the deadline is the expected scenario.

There is also speculation the DUP could avert an election by briefly returning to the Executive to reset the six-month clock on when a poll must be called, similar to ex-DUP leader Peter Robinson's in-out ministers move in 2015.

It would also prevent current caretaker ministers being removed and Stormont lapsing into the uncertainty of even more limited decision-making by civil servants during a cost-of-living crisis.

Sir Jeffrey could hold out on blocking Stormont until the government's Protocol Bill is passed, but the legislation to override the deal on Irish Sea trade is going nowhere fast.

The DUP leader also has decisions to make on whether to personally return to Stormont, triggering a by-election in Lagan Valley, or appoint someone else as Deputy First Minister.

But amid the branching paths remains one simple problem: The DUP must find a way of saving face.

With the protocol here to stay, the party needs to spin any changes as a unionist victory that achieves its vague aim of removing the Irish Sea border.

The conference theme is "Moving Forward Together". The only way this will happen is when the DUP backs itself out of a corner.

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