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Brendan Hughes

Brendan Hughes: Delving deeper into Census 2021 shows changes and challenges ahead

It is not hard to understand why the stats on religion, national identity and passports dominated initial news headlines on the latest 2021 Census results.

These three metrics arguably best summed up how Northern Ireland has changed a century on from its creation when the island was partitioned.

"The state was created very deliberately to ensure a permanent Protestant majority of two to one," said Dr Paul Nolan, a Belfast-based expert in social trends and demography.

Read more: NI Census results: Catholics outnumber Protestants for the first time

"It was thought it was baked in that it would stay like that forever. Today's figures show that was wrong," he added, as there are now more people from Catholic background than a Protestant upbringing.

He told BBC Newsline it was "seismic" that those who claim a British-only identity now make up less than one third of the population of Northern Ireland.

Brexit looms large in the figures. There was a 63.5% surge since 2011 in the number of people who hold an Irish passport, although there are still more British passport holders (52%) than Irish (32%).

The political reaction has been swift, focusing inevitably on what if anything this all means for the prospects of any future border on a united Ireland.

With previous polls suggesting support for Irish unity sits at around 30%, any referendum still seems a long way off.

However, delving deeper into the Census reflects perhaps more immediate change.

Despite the focus on faith background, nearly a fifth of the population now identify as having no religion. In Ards and North Down council area, the proportion is almost a third.

We have a growing ethnic minority population and the number of people living here born outside the UK and Ireland is now around one person in 15 - the highest ever recorded.

The percentage of the population born outside the UK and Ireland is greatest in Belfast council area (9.8%) and Mid Ulster (9.2%).

The most prevalent main language other than English was not Irish or Ulster Scots, but Polish. Some 4.6% of people said their main language was not English.

These figures may seem small, but Northern Ireland is now more diverse than ever before. We only have to look at our school populations to see that further change is on the horizon.

Half of pupils are from Catholic background, 31% are from a Protestant background and 19% are from other religious backgrounds or none, according to school enrolment figures for 2021/22 from Stormont's Department of Education.

One in every 20 pupils was a newcomer pupil, meaning those enrolled in a school but who do not have the language skills to participate fully in the curriculum.

There were nearly 18,400 newcomer pupils in 2021/22 - more than four times the number in 2016/17 (4,400).

Northern Ireland has an ageing population. While the overall population increased by 5%, the number of people aged 65 or more grew by nearly 25%.

The Census also looked at households, discovering that more people than ever before are now living alone.

Dr David Marshall, director of the Census, starkly explained the shift over the decades.

He said: "In total there's just under 770,000 households in Northern Ireland. Just over 230,000 are one-person households. The one-person households is the largest group.

"When I was growing up in the 1960s, five-person households was the largest group. That's a fairly remarkable change."

Stats from the Census are being released in phases, with more figures to be issued in the coming months relating to marital status, sexual orientation, health and disability.

The figures should help policy makers plan for the future in areas across government including education, healthcare, housing and the economy.

Change may be dropping slowly, but it presents big challenges ahead.

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