Brazil waltzed through the group stage and up the board on prediction markets to win the World Cup. Markets saw roughly a 1% rise for Brazil to win the World Cup after finishing first in Group C over Morocco, Scotland, and Haiti.
Kalshi’s World Cup market saw a 1.2% rise from exactly 5% to 6.2%. Polymarket saw a 1% shift from 4.5% to 5.5%. Brazil sits seventh on both markets
World Cup Winner - Kalshi
- France 20.3%
- Argentina 16%
- Spain 13.3%
- England 10.4%
- Portugal 8.6%
- Netherlands 6.6%
- Brazil 6.2%
World Cup Winner - Polymarket
- France 19.4%
- Argentina 14.9%
- Spain 13.9%
- England 10.6%
- Portugal 7.7%
- Netherlands 5.7%
- Brazil 5.5%
At current prices, a $10 trade profits $141.29 on Kalshi and $166.66 on Polymarket if Brazil wins its sixth World Cup.
How they got here
After opening the group stage on a 1-1 draw with Morocco, Brazil took off, winning its next two games, 3-0 each, over Haiti and Scotland. Those two wins launched it into first place in Group C with seven points and a six-goal difference. They beat out Morocco, which also has seven points but a three-goal difference.
Leading the charge so far is Vinicius Junior, who’s scored in all three games, including a brace in the group-clinching match against Scotland. He had a near hat-trick before his second goal was disallowed for a controversial foul.
Brazil’s World Cup chances aren’t the only thing on the rise. Vini Jr. jumped from 3% to 7% to win the Golden Boot.
What’s next
With Brazil on to the knockout round, they’ll get a match against the runner-up of Group F, which is currently Japan. Netherlands is another option should Japan win its match against Sweden and either outscores the Netherlands or if they lose.
Looking even further to the round of 16 if Brazil continues advancing, they’ll match up with the runner up of Group E or I. Currently, that's a combination of France, Norway, Ivory Coast, or Ecuador.
Brazil at the World Cup
Historically, Brazil is a powerhouse at the World Cup having won the most WC championships in history with five. They also have two second, two third, and two fourth place finishes. They’ve made it to at least the quarterfinals in each their last eight World Cup appearances since 1994.
New users who sign up with the Polymarket invite code SIBONUS and deposit $20 or more will receive $50 in trading funds — one of the best welcome offers in prediction markets right now.
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