LAS VEGAS — He scored the most important goal in U.S. men’s soccer history, and he has nailed outcomes of the world’s most popular sporting event for a few decades since playing in two.
With a month before Qatar 2022 commences, we tap Hall of Fame defender Paul Caligiuri, and three ace futebol handicappers, for profitable World Cup insights.
His 30-yard bazooka in Trinidad and Tobago in 1989 delivered the Americans to Italy 90, ending a 40-year World Cup drought. He scored against the Czechs in Florence.
And Caligiuri tapped Brazil to conquer Qatar. The flare of Samba Soccer is back, he said from San Clemente, California, with stifling defenders. In 17 qualifiers, A Seleção went 14-0-3, tallying 40 goals while allowing only five.
“The only thing that can stop them is themselves,” Caligiuri said. “They’re back to playing the style that has entertained the world, having won a record five FIFA World Cups.”
WagerTalk soccer ’capper Carmine Bianco, from Toronto, applauded Brazil boss Tite for how he has managed a wealth of talent. Bianco said, “This could very well be one of the best teams they’ve taken to a World Cup.”
Brazil is the favorite, at +350. Westgate SuperBook oddsman Jeff Sherman recently sliced the Brazilians from +450, at which he bought a position on them elsewhere. He calls Brazil “sick.”
In June, following simulations that project a Brazil-Germany finale, Bianco added a 10-1 ducat on Germany. However, Leroy Sané tore a thigh muscle in Saturday’s match for Bayern Munich and will miss Qatar.
Rex Beyers, head of wagering at PlayUp USA, saw Brazil “wreck the competition” in qualifying. “That’s something you just don’t see down there in the cauldron that is CONMEBOL.”
Begrudgingly, offshore punter Conner Streeter concurred.
“I hate to go chalk, but it’s warranted. I would have gone Brazil or France, but France has major, major problems right now and looks badly disjointed.”
TOUGH CANUCK LUCK
Aficionados would be wise to peruse the SuperBook’s Qatar 22 menus.
Will a South American side (locking up Argentina and Brazil) win the trophy? Yes, is +210. Among the titans, all at 6.5 points, Brazil (at -170) has the highest group-stage Over points price.
In the eight four-team groups, each side plays the others once. Three points for a win, one for a draw, top two group teams advance to the knockout stage. Goal differential is a tiebreaker.
Caligiuri pegged the US to go 1-1-1 in Group B; England is the -310 SuperBook favorite to win B, and Wales is knotted with the Americans at about +600.
The Canadians dropped only one qualifier in winning CONCACAF, the region comprised of North America, Central America and the Caribbean, impressing Caligiuri.
However, it’s just Canada’s second World Cup, and inflated expectations could tax the Canucks.
In Mexico 86, Canada was organized and fit, Caligiuri says, but it failed to score in defeats to France, Hungary and the Soviet Union. He sees Belgium and Croatia ruling Canada’s Group F.
At M Resort in December, I grabbed Denmark at 60-1 (now 35-1 at SuperBook) and Canada at 300-1 (now 150-1), hoping to use them as knockout-stage hedging collateral.
Streeter, though, also viewed a tough road for Canada.
“It will be very hard for Canada to advance. If they do, they’ll draw Spain or Germany; a horrid draw. Had they landed where the U.S. is, they’d have a much better chance to make some noise.
“If a North American team reaches the quarterfinals, it’d be a big accomplishment.”
ZERO COHESION
Nobody matches the 58-year-old Caligiuri, a pal since high school, in patriotism, so he might want to stop reading. The U.S. is 3-3-2 in its previous eight matches, failing to score in five of them.
“Complete trash,” Streeter said. “The USMNT brass should all be [expletive] fired. You have Messi who plays in every Argentine international match, yet the US rests [Christian] Pulisic every other match.”
(Pulisic, by the way, had played in nine matches since August without a goal or assist, but he scored one and doled out an assist in his last two matches for Chelsea in England.)
Streeter knocked U.S. boss Gregg Berhalter and staff for coddling players, saying the young squad should have gone into “cohesion mode” 18 months ago with core figures.
“Instead, these [expletives] call up 500 new players every month. They act like they are 15-time world champions, and can just walk on the pitch and win. I don’t get it at all.”
Streeter is an alias. He operates offshore and has manipulated global soccer markets to his advantage for years, so his anonymity is paramount. He expects England and Wales to advance out of Group B.
“They are never in synch. For a team like the U.S., short on star players and finishers, they have to play team ball to win in a tourney like this, and they aren’t close to being able to do that.
“Complete mismanagement. They couldn’t have prepared any worse or more poorly. They have no . . . clue what combinations even work because they have used so many of them.”
STREET FOOTBALLERS
Streeter touted Brazil’s Richarlison, with seven goals and an assist in his last six matches for A Seleção, for the Golden Boot. He’s seen the Tottenham striker at 35-1 odds, so I was elated to get 50-1 at the SuperBook.
For insurance, I nabbed Argentine ace Lionel Messi (18-1) and Richarlison teammate Neymar (20-1).
Caligiuri favors 23-year-old French danger man Kylian Mbappé, who has amassed a ridiculous 40 goals in all competitions this year and has 10-1 SuperBook odds, second to British striker Harry Kane’s 8-1.
Streeter also made a case for Polish striker Robert Lewandowski (50-1), having targeted an exotic Argentina/Brazil/France (to win) ticket, with Lewandowski to claim the boot, at 250-1 in a far-away market.
And don’t dismiss 34-year-old French and Real Madrid striker Karim Benzema (16-1), who on Monday, in Paris, became the oldest player to win the prestigious Ballon d’Or, awarded to the world’s best player, since 1956.
The SuperBook’s largest wagers have been $8,250 on Brazil at +500, $5,080 on Argentina at +550 and, a few days ago, a grand on 80-1 Uruguay. Big South Korea bets include $300 and $200, at 300-1, and $400 at 250-1.
According to Streeter, the left side of the bracket is the Side of Death. He forecasts the Netherlands, Argentina, Brazil, Spain or Germany, France or Denmark, and maybe Belgium and Portugal to fill it.
He favors South American sides over their Euro counterparts in Qatar.
“The South American teams are filled with players who came up dirt poor, with nothing, playing all day in the streets, gritty and tough. Most of the Euro players are all now academy kids, and I don’t think their intangibles are as good.”
PIZZA MONEY
Argentina (+500 to win it all) also finished qualifying unbeaten, and Beyers liked its path to a potential mega-semifinal against Brazil.
Since the Argentines beat Brazil, 1-0, in Rio de Janeiro in the Copa America finale last year, they’ve gone 19-0-8; the Brazilians 23-0-5.
“Expect Leo Messi’s likely best final chance at World Cup glory to end with a bang,” Beyers said, “and not a whimper.”
For an underdog with money-making potential — like Croatia, which lost to France in the Russia 2018 finale — Beyers suggested Serbia, and outstanding striker Aleksandar Mitrovi, at 150-1.
The Serbs are 23-3-10 over their last 36 matches. They’re 4-0-1 in their previous five, outscoring foes 13-4; Mitrovi banged in six. The Fulham forward has 34 goals in all competitions in 2022 and is a 60-1 Golden Boot shot.
In Group G, the Serbs have ’18 revenge games against Brazil and Switzerland. Oddschecker has Serbia at +650 against Brazil in three-way wagering (Team A, Team B or draw), +105 versus Cameroon and +175 against the Swiss.
Circle that last match. Bianco, too, liked Serbia to place here above the Swiss.
Beyers added, “From there, you’d have a chance to play around with small hedges . . . and a bigger one in the final, should the Serbs make it that far. Worth pizza money.”
