The first round of Brazil’s 2026 elections held this Sunday ended with a resounding victory for the far-right Liberal Party (PL). Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the jailed former president, Jair Bolsonaro, came out ahead of the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with more than 47% of the valid votes. His party also secured the largest blocs in both the Chamber of Deputies – the lower house of Brazil’s Congress – and the Senate, in addition to five state governments.
Political scientists had already predicted such a scenario. Even with polls showing better numbers for Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT), we saw a shift in votes in the final days of the campaign driven by anti-PT sentiment and discontent fueled largely by unmet consumer expectations. This came even at a time of low inflation and low unemployment.
