It’s mid-March, which means it’s time to break out the sharpies, fill out some brackets, and maybe even make some bets.
Some of us watch a ton of college basketball all season long and have a pretty good feel for how the tournament might play out. Others cram in 20 minutes worth of research fill in our picks off that. And then some of us pick winners based on who has the best mascot.
I suppose folks would classify me in that first category: I’m an AP Top 25 voter for women’s college basketball and have been covering the sport all season long at For The Win and for a few other news organizations. Am I an expert? Probably not. Is my bracket wrong? Probably. But we’re going to have some fun and break it down anyways.
Here are my picks, and please forgive my sloppy handwriting and printer that is in-need of a tune-up.
Oh, and you can download and fill out your own bracket here.
A few explanations:
- I’m taking Creighton to advance to the Sweet 16 out of Notre Dame’s sub-regional because — despite no official word from the Irish — I don’t believe Olivia Miles will play in the NCAA Tournament, and if she does, I don’t think she’ll be 100 percent healthy. While on the bench at the ACC tournament, Miles didn’t look like someone who could jog, much less sprint while dribbling a basketball. I would love to see her play in the tournament, but I’ll be pretty surprised if she does. Even if Miles does play, Creighton shouldn’t be overlooked. The Bluejays are 11th in the nation in offensive rating (111.5), 12th in effective field goal percentage (52.8) and 10th in points per play (0.93).
- For one of my big first-round upsets, I’m taking East Carolina over Texas. The Longhorns turn the ball over 15.2 times per game, which ranks a mediocre 144th in the nation. East Carolina is built on its defense this year, ranking third in points allowed per play (0.65), 11th in 3-point shooting defense (25.8 percent) and third in turnovers forced per game (24.2). The Pirates have what it takes to rattle Texas on its home floor.
- In Duke’s sub-regional, I’m predicting total chaos. I don’t think my MTSU over Colorado pick will be uncommon. The Blue Raiders have a balanced attack, ranking in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive rating. MTSU has also beaten two fellow tournament teams this season, including Louisville. The more farfetched upset prediction is Iona over host Duke. But here’s the thing: The Gaels can shoot the lights out of the basketball, ranking second in the nation in 3-point shooting (40.1 percent). Duke has a great defense, but the Blue Devils have struggled to overcome early deficits (see also: their last two games against Virginia Tech). If Iona connects early and often, it could make Duke’s tournament stay a short one.
- N.C. State is a No. 7 seed, but I think the Wolfpack have the potential to advance to the Elite Eight if Diamond Johnson is healthy. Remember: This is an N.C. State team that beat Iowa in Ames earlier this season. The Wolfpack have also beaten tournament-bound teams in West Virginia, Georgia, South Florida, Miami, Louisville, Notre Dame and North Carolina. Wolfpack coach Wes Moore is a veteran of this tournament, having taken his teams to the Big Dance 15 times. While LSU is armed with a superstar in Angel Reese, the Tigers — with their 75th-ranked strength of schedule — never faced a team matching the caliber of N.C. State in non-conference play.
- My Villanova to the Final Four pick is simply based on Maddy Siegrist catching fire. Indiana couldn’t stop Caitlin Clark. Can they contain the nation’s leading scorer at 28.9 points per game?
.@20sMaddy putting up numbers. 📊
37 points on 21 shots. 11 rebounds. 4 assists. pic.twitter.com/qev3boizm1
— Villanova WBB (@novawbb) March 6, 2023
- I think North Carolina is under-seeded at No. 6. A lot of folks thought the Tar Heels had the resume of a top-16 seed. Instead, Courtney Banghart’s side is off to Columbus, Ohio where they could cause a lot of problems for the Buckeyes in a potential second-round matchup.
- Virginia Tech is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 11 straight games. I think they’ll keep that rolling to the national championship game. No one in the ACC — which has the most teams in the tournament with eight — had an answer for the combination of Elizabeth Kitley and Georgia Amoore, and I’m skeptical that even mighty UConn will be able to stifle the duo.
- Caitlin Clark looks like the most dynamic player in the country. She just powered her team to a Big Ten tournament championship and will likely be voted National Player of the Year. She’s averaging 27 points, 8.3 assists and 7.5 rebounds per game. She leads the nation in 3-pointers made, knocking down 3.4 per game. While South Carolina is undefeated this year, they haven’t faced a perimeter scorer with Clark’s skills. There’s no player in the SEC that really compares to Clark, the UConn team South Carolina beat didn’t have Azzi Fudd, the Maryland team that lost to the Gamecocks didn’t have Diamond Miller, and while UCLA and Stanford are great teams, they simply aren’t armed with the same threat that Clark presents. She could give South Carolina headaches.
