New Delhi: It may be a while before films reach the ₹200-300 crore benchmark in box office collections even after restrictions are eased.
Pre-covid level box office collections may not be possible as long as the gap between theatre and digital release of films remains narrow, at four weeks, leaving little room for cinemas to exploit the full potential of a movie, said film trade analysts. Seating capacity restrictions will not help their case either, they said.
“Several pre-covid numbers are not feasible immediately after reopening of cinemas given that there has been a shift in consumer preferences where an additional safety factor now drives decisions (to visit cinemas), followed by whether audiences are excited enough for the content in question," said film producer, trade and exhibition expert Girish Johar. Unlike earlier, theatre viewing can no longer be seen just as a means of leisure with fear of the infection lurking in consumer’s mind, he said. If producers release their film slates, things may normalise for film business only by Diwali, he added.
Independent trade analyst Sreedhar Pillai agreed the rapid spread of infections during the third wave will at least keep families away for another six months, especially in north India and without them coming in droves, there is no possibility of ₹300 crore box office. Theatres realise the same which is why they will agree to the four-week window for digital premiere for now, he added.
“The business is totally hampered right now with hardly any new releases. It is difficult to quantify how much a shorter OTT window impacts collections but we know the four-week period that we were hoping would be back to eight weeks by April, will stay on for now," Rajendar Singh Jyala, chief programming officer at INOX Leisure Ltd said.
Jyala, however, expects recovery to be faster this time as compared to the previous two waves. “Sooryavanshi had released within two weeks of Maharashtra reopening theatres post the second lockdown. So producers have gained confidence now since they have seen people come back which was earlier only a hypothesis," Jyala said.
Recurring lockdowns and capacity restrictions among other limitations through the pandemic have affected box office numbers for a large period of time and across languages, said Ashish Saksena, chief operating officer, cinemas at ticketing site BookMyShow. “Naturally, expectations need to be realigned until business norms and regulations get back to what they were pre-covid," he said.
He said the phenomenal box office performance of November and December has shown that these are short-term challenges and consumption demand remains at its peak subject to safety measurements being in place.
“While the timeline of four to six weeks (for OTT premiere) may raise questions, it is important to look at pure play business dynamics in the current situation and note that cinemas have accepted this restricted window for more films to release going forward, which is encouraging," Saksena said.
Not all is lost though, said Rahul Puri, managing director, Mukta Arts and Mukta A2 Cinemas. “There is a flood of films waiting to release. This will carry us through from March till May and June. I expect box office to rebound sharply here and then settle down in Q3," Puri said.
Restrictions aside, the major problem lies ahead for movie industries that cater to the north, said independent exhibitor Vishek Chauhan adding that there is no challenge with audience turnout but the performance of films like ’83 shows Bollywood’s disconnect with viewers that results in low footfalls.
“Well-mounted films that the south is unleashing can breach these (box office) marks in time. The real potential of north India remains hidden," said Chauhan pointing out that urban, metro audiences are not coming in huge numbers so films have to be made to cater to the lowest common denominator.
