Victory in the March 25 NSW election will be an uphill battle for either major party.
The political colours of many seats will be impossible to change and a greater number of independents and minor party candidates will only further heat up the contest.
Some 47 seats are required for majority government and the Coalition enters the race with only 46 (Liberal 34 and Nationals 12). It must not only hold these seats, but add more to its fold if it's to win majority government.
Labor needs to win nine extra seats, on a swing of 6.5 per cent, to form majority government.
These big lifts mean either party will have to look to the crossbench for support.
Some seats are sitting on razor-thin margins, some will be harder to win due to retiring MPs, and some blue-ribbon seats might turn 'teal'.
Here are the seats worth watching.
Parramatta
The Liberal party has got a difficult task in retaining Parramatta and it's considered the easiest gain for Labor.
It's at risk of flipping as popular Liberal MP Geoff Lee is retiring at this election and Labor gained strong swings in the area in the 2022 federal election.
Mr Lee has held the Western Sydney seat since 2011 and has maintained a strong margin over the past two elections, despite a state-wide swing to Labor.
Traditionally, Parramatta has been a Labor seat and their candidate for this election — Donna Davis — has the benefit of a strong public profile as Lord Mayor of Parramatta since January 2022.
The 2021 redistribution of the state's electoral boundaries has also hurt the Liberals and reduced their margin from 10.6 per cent to 6.5 per cent.
The shifting of boundaries meant losing voters north of Kissing Point Road and James Ruse Drive where there was a Liberal two-party preferred of 65 per cent in 2019.
It also added Granville and Seven Hills where the Labor two-party preferred vote was more than 60 per cent.
Katie Mullens is the Liberal candidate for Parramatta and has described herself as the "underdog".
Kogarah
This is the most marginal seat at the 2023 election.
It's also the seat of Opposition Leader Chris Minns.
Every vote will count for Mr Minns, who holds the south Sydney seat on the minuscule margin of 0.1 per cent.
The 2021 boundary redistribution was not in his favour — it added Kogarah Bay and the remainder of Blakehurst, which reduced his margin from 1.8 per cent to 0.1 per cent.
Mr Minns is up against Liberal candidate Craig Chung, who has served as a councillor for the City of Sydney and Ryde Council.
Mr Chung is of Chinese descent, so will likely resonate with the large Australian-Chinese community in the area.
Mr Minns suffered a swing against him in 2019 when he was running against Chinese-Australian Liberal candidate Scott Yung.
If Mr Minns can't hold onto Kogarah, the Labor party will be without a leader if it wins.
Pittwater
This very safe Liberal seat is facing a real threat from a 'teal' independent.
Environmental lawyer Jacqui Scruby is running for the blue-ribbon northern beaches electorate and has the backing of the Climate 200 group.
She will be hoping to capitalise on the momentum Independent Dr Sophie Scamps generated last year when she won the federal seat of Mackellar (which takes in the entirety of Pittwater).
Based off those results, Pittwater has an independent margin of about 5 per cent for this state election.
Ms Scruby also wouldn't be the first independent to snatch Pittwater from the Liberals. In 2005, Alex McTaggart unseated Liberal candidate Paul Nicolaou in a shock result.
The Liberals currently hold Pittwater on a 22.4 per cent margin but that vote may slip with the retirement of popular MP Rob Stokes at this election.
Mr Stokes has comfortably held the seat since 2007 and led the portfolios of infrastructure, cities and active transport.
Northern Beaches councillor and family lawyer Rory Amon will be trying to keep the seat in Liberal hands.
The local branch backed Mr Amon but there were reservations at the state level about choosing a male candidate at a time when the party was trying to increase gender parity.
Penrith
This is one of the Coalition's most marginal seats. They hold it on a wafer-thin margin of 0.6 per cent and Labor is going in for the steal.
Traditionally a relatively safe Labor seat, Liberal MP Stuart Ayres turned it blue in 2010 with a 25.7 per cent swing.
However, Mr Ayres was caught in the middle of the John Barilaro trade job saga last year and resigned from cabinet over his involvement.
An external review later cleared him and found he didn't breach the ministerial code of conduct.
He will likely retain to the frontbench if he wins Penrith.
Challenging him is former Penrith Mayor Karen McKeown, who lost to Mr Ayres by just over 1,000 votes at the 2019 election.
The Liberals may also be at risk of shedding votes to One Nation candidate and Penrith local Belinda McWilliams.
Heathcote
Even though this southern Sydney seat is currently held by a Liberal MP, Labor is ahead (on paper).
New electoral boundaries have shifted the marginal seat further south, meaning it's a likely Labor gain on a margin of 1.7 per cent.
This spells bad news for Liberal MP Lee Evans, who has held the seat since 2011.
The redistribution means voters west of the Woronora River who voted 65 per cent Liberal in the 2019 two-party preferred results are now excluded and voters from Keira who voted 70 per cent Labor are included.
Mr Evans's challenger is Labor's Maryanne Stuart, who has contested the seat two times before.
The Liberals will be hoping incumbency works in Mr Evans's favour.
