The Boston Celtics have been flexing their championship potential throughout the season, and with their recent win, they solidified their position as serious contenders. Their 40th win of the year made them the first team to meet Phil Jackson's 40-before-20 criteria, which states that a team must win 40 games before losing 20 to be considered an elite team.
Phil Jackson, renowned as one of the greatest coaching figures in basketball history with 13 championships as both a coach and player, introduced this criterion in 2008 during the Lakers' revival led by Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol. While it may seem like a straightforward concept, this rule helps separate the contenders from the pretenders and provides an accurate measure of teams with a real shot at winning the coveted Larry O'Brien Trophy in June.
The 40-before-20 rule encompasses various factors, including having superstar talent, maintaining good health, building a balanced roster, and demonstrating composure in the fourth quarter. Above all, staying healthy and having a bit of luck on their side is crucial for a team to maintain a 56-win pace or higher. Lineup continuity is vital in the NBA, as highlighted by the Denver Nuggets' success in the 2023 NBA Finals. The Nuggets had a season without significant injuries, developed a winning mindset, and filled any gaps with veteran role players.
Moreover, a team must showcase solid balance between offense and defense. Looking at the candidates for this year's 40-before-20 club, the Boston Celtics, LA Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Denver Nuggets rank in the top 10 in both offensive rating and defensive rating. Meanwhile, the lowest offensive or defensive rank belongs to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Timberwolves, sitting at 16th and 17th respectively in points scored per 100 possessions.
While the 40-before-20 rule is not foolproof, it has an impressive success rate of 90.9%. Since the introduction of the 3-point line in the 1979-80 season, 40 out of the last 44 champions have met this criterion. Notably, all 11 of Phil Jackson's championship-winning teams achieved the 40-before-20 mark, further validating his theory.
Of course, there are exceptions to the rule. The 2021 season, for example, was unique due to the after-effects of the bubble and Covid-related shutdowns. The 2021 Bucks missed the 40-before-20 mark but went on to win the NBA title, overcoming two separate 2-0 deficits in the playoffs. Similarly, the 2004 Pistons and 2006 Heat are outliers from a different era of the NBA when defense played a more significant role in winning championships.
As of now, the Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks are on the cusp of missing this year's 40-before-20 club, and the Phoenix Suns are the strongest team challenging the rule in the Western Conference. However, history suggests that not achieving this benchmark substantially lowers a team's chances of winning it all.
When it comes to the Boston Celtics, they have not only met the criteria but have exceeded expectations. With a five-game lead in the Eastern Conference, they are the only team on pace for a 60-plus win season. Their offensive and defensive ratings rank among the top three in the league, with an emphasis on shooting from beyond the arc and limiting turnovers. Additionally, their lowest opponent free throw rate is a remarkable accomplishment given their aggressive defensive approach.
The Celtics have also seen significant contributions from their bench and were able to acquire Xavier Tillman Sr. to bolster their depth. Though they haven't been as dominant recently, head coach Joe Mazzulla emphasizes the competitiveness of the modern NBA and isn't overly concerned with blowout victories. Their response to adversity is what matters.
With a comfortable lead in the standings, the Celtics understand the importance of securing homecourt advantage and utilizing their talented roster to meet the championship expectations placed upon them. While there are no guarantees, they have all the necessary components to make a legitimate title run. All they can do now is stay focused, take care of business, and aim for that ultimate goal: bringing another championship to Boston.
