The verdict is in. Boris Johnson retains the confidence of the Conservative Party. For now. Johnson received the votes of 211 out of 359 Tory MPs in support of his leadership, which means that technically he won. But the fact that 148 of his parliamentary colleagues voted against him, more than 41% of the parliamentary party, throws his longevity as party leader – and prime minister – into considerable doubt.
Johnson actually performed worse than John Major and Theresa May in their leadership challenges in 1995 and 2019. And he faced as much opposition as Margaret Thatcher did in the first round of her leadership contest in 1990.
The history of such confidence votes in Conservative leaders tells us that they almost always end up damaging both the leader and the party even when they support the incumbent. We have seen this happening on three successive occasions over the past 32 years.
