Evening summary
After today’s meeting in Belfast between Boris Johnson and politicians in Northern Ireland
- Boris Johnson claims planned law allowing UK to ignore parts of NI protocol just ‘insurance’ in case talks fail
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Irish PM Micheál Martin urges UK to resume substantive talks with EU over Northern Ireland protocol
- DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson says it’s ‘puerile nonsense’ for Sinn Féin to claim UK government siding with his party
- Sinn Féin says it got ‘no straight answers’ from Johnson
Away from Northern Ireland, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey spoke to MPs amid rising living costs.
Updated
Unite criticise Bailey for comments on wage restraint
The head of the UK’s biggest trade unions, Unite, has said that the governor of the Bank of England should not “lecture” workers about holding off asking for a pay rise.
Earlier on Monday, Andrew Bailey had repeated his assertion that workers should “think and reflect” about asking for wage increases (see 4:54). His comments have already been criticised by the TUC.
Unite’s general secretary, Sharon Graham, said: “Yet again workers are being asked to pay the price, this time for inflation and the energy crisis. Inflation has not been caused by workers. Why should they be expected to pay for the failures of the energy market and the total shambles of government policy?
“Workers don’t need lectures from the governor of the Bank of England on exercising pay restraint. Why is it that every time there is a crisis, rich men ask ordinary people to pay for it?
“Enough is enough, we will be demanding that employers who can pay, do pay. Let’s be clear, pay restraint is nothing more than a call for a national pay cut.”
The foreign secretary, Liz Truss, has discussed the situation in Stormont with the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi.
Washington has expressed concern at the prospect of the UK getting rid of parts of the Northern Ireland protocol, and the UK government has been attempting to reassure US politicians and officials.
In a tweet, Truss said: “I reiterated the UK’s commitment to protecting the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement, and the importance of getting the NI Executive up and running.”
Good to speak @SpeakerPelosi 🇺🇸🇬🇧. I reiterated the UK’s commitment to protecting the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement, and the importance of getting the NI Executive up and running. pic.twitter.com/Q0xoy1Z8zM
— Liz Truss (@trussliz) May 16, 2022
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The Ulster Unionist party’s leader, Doug Beattie, said that if parts of the problems with the protocol were fixed, then a speaker for the assembly needed to be nominated as soon as possible.
If the UK government takes steps tomorrow or this week to fix some of the issues that we see with the protocol, it is important that we then nominate a speaker and we get back to government and start doing the work.
And if we do not get back into government, then we need to identify who is blocking it and we need to bypass them.
Meanwhile the leader of the SDLP, Colum Eastwood, said:
If the British government tomorrow signal their intent to break international law by legislating to rip up the protocol at Westminster, he [Johnson] will not have the support of the vast majority of people in Northern Ireland.
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More reaction coming in from the Alliance party, who won the third-largest number of seats in the elections earlier this month.
Alliance’s deputy leader,Stephen Farry, said the meeting with Johnson was “robust and very frustrating”.
We were giving him a very clear warning that if he plays fast and loose with the protocol and the indeed Good Friday Agreement, then he is going to be adding more and more instability to Northern Ireland.
On the one hand, he is coming here with a certain set of stated outcomes, but all his actions belie what he is notionally trying to achieve.
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Johnson claims planned law allowing UK to ignore parts of NI protocol just 'insurance' in case talks fail
Boris Johnson has recorded a clip for broadcasters about his meeting with the political parties in Northern Ireland. Here are the key points.
- Johnson said all five of the parties he spoke to today (Sinn Féin, the DUP, the Alliance party, the UUP and the SDLP) agreed the Northern Ireland protocol needed to be reformed.
- He said that the proposed legislation that would give the UK the right to ignore parts of the protocol was just an “insurance” option. He explained:
None of the parties – I spoke to all five parties just now – not one of them likes the way [the protocol] operating, they all think it can be reformed and improved – from Sinn Féin to SDLP, DUP, all of them.
The question is how do you do that? We would love this to be done in a consensual way with our friends and partners, ironing out the problems, stopping some of these barriers east-west.
But to get that done, to have the insurance, we need to proceed with a legislative solution as well.
- He insisted that he did appeal personally to the DUP to reform the power-sharing executive. He said: “I think everybody should be rolling up their sleeves and getting stuck into the government of Northern Ireland.”
- He dismissed suggestions that the proposed legislation that would give the government the right to ignore parts of the protocol might start a trade war with the EU. When this was put to him, Johnson replied:
What we’re doing is sticking up for the Belfast/Good Friday agreement, and what we are doing it trying to protect and preserve the government of Northern Ireland.
That is all from me for today. My colleague Harry Taylor is taking over now.
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TUC says it is 'unbelievable' that Bank of England governor has restated his call for wage restraint
The TUC has criticised Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, for restating his call for wage restraint. (See 4.54pm.) Paul Nowak, the TUC’s deputy general secretary, said:
It is unbelievable that the Bank of England has repeated its calls for workers to take a wage hit – while saying virtually nothing about soaring profits at the likes of BP and Shell.
The last thing working people need right now – in the middle of the worst living standards crisis in generations – is to have their wages held down.
Let’s be crystal clear. Global energy prices are driving up inflation – not pay claims.
Suppressing pay will suck demand out of our economy and cause widespread hardship.
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Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary, has written to the Speaker in the House of Lords (the Lord Speaker), saying that, as the minister in charge of the Queen Elizabeth II Centre in Westminster, he will stop the Lords using it when they move out of parliament for the refurbishment of the building, it was reported yesterday. Gove wants the Lords to move out of London, which he says will be good for levelling up.
As PA Media reports, peers dismissed his proposal angrily during an urgent question on it this afternoon. PA says:
Raising an urgent question in parliament, Tory former cabinet minister Lord Forsyth of Drumlean pressed for the publication of Gove’s analysis on “how he thought this would enable parliament to function if one House was sent to Stoke or somewhere else”.
Pressing the minister, Lord Forsyth said: “Would he just remined the secretary of state ... that the matter for the location of this House is a matter for this house and not for the executive.”
Lord True, the Cabient Office minister, said: “The secretary of state is always inventive. These are matters for parliament.”
He also pointed out he had been in York last week on a ministerial visit and “did not look at any alternative site”.
Questioning on whose authority Gove had contacted the Lord Speaker, Tory peer Lord Cormack said: “Was he speaking for the government and if so does he not realise this is not a matter for the government or was this just another freelance exercise by an intellectual flibbertigibbet?”
Amid laughter, Lord True said: “I couldn’t possibly comment on that.”
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Irish PM urges UK to resume substantive talks with EU over Northern Ireland protocol
Micheál Martin, the taoiseach (Irish PM), has urged the UK to resume substantive negotiations with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol. Addressing the media in Dublin, he said:
The only way to flesh that out is really to re-engage and have substantive talks between the European Union and the United Kingdom.
The UK government has issues but I can’t see any other way to resolve those issues other than through negotiations and substantive talks.
He also said he had made this point in a conversation with Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, who agreed. Michel posted a message on Twitter just a few minutes ago saying the same thing.
Discussed with @MichealMartinTD , the only way forward on Protocol is engagement between EU and UK.
— Charles Michel (@eucopresident) May 16, 2022
Any unilateral action by 🇬🇧 on Protocol - which would undermine its international legal obligations - clearly not welcome all the more so in these difficult geopolitical times.
Martin also said he found it hard to see why the DUP were obstructing the resumption of the Northern Ireland assembly. He said:
It seems to me to be very, very difficult to comprehend that in any jurisdiction in the modern world, where we have had an election, particularly in the European context, the idea that a parliament is prevented from convening is hard to comprehend.
The people have spoken, the people have elected their representatives. At a minimum it seems, without any delay, the assembly should be established, of course followed by the formation of the executive.
Bank of England still thinks Brexit will cut GDP by 3.25% in long term, MPs told
At the Treasury committee Sir Dave Ramsden, the Bank of England’s deputy governor for markets and banking, said the main impact of Brexit would be on trade intensity. He said the Bank thought it would cut GDP by about 3.25% in the long term (over the next 15 or 20 years). That estimate had not changed, he said.
Because it was a long-term impact, it was hard to track, he said. He said the impact of shocks such as Covid and the Ukraine war were more visible because they were more immediate.
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Bailey repeats his call for people to 'reflect' before asking for big pay rises – but says message aimed at high earners
At the Treasury committee Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, was asked about the row he generated in February when he said people should show restraint when asking for pay rises. He repeated the point this afternoon, although this time he said his argument was directed at high earners. He said:
I spoke in an interview about this. I do think people, particularly people who are on higher earnings, should think and reflect on asking for high wage increases.
It’s a societal question. But I am not preaching about this. I was asked if I have taken a pay rise myself this year and I said no, I had asked the Bank not to give me one, because I felt that was the right thing for me personally.
But everybody must make their own judgement on that. It’s not for me to go around telling people what to do.
In that sense I know I may have been interpreted as doing that, but I wasn’t. What I was saying is that maybe people should reflect on it, particularly people in that situation.
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Brexit has reduced UK's potential output, but won't cause persistently high inflation, MPs told
At the Treasury committee Michael Saunders, a member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, who is giving evidence alongside Andrew Bailey, also answered the Adam Posen question. (See 4.23pm.) He said:
Brexit has reduced the UK’s potential output. That’s through adverse effects on business investment, and hence productivity, and also on the labour supply. And it may also have increased the extent to which, if there is excess demand in the economy, inflation picks up, because the UK’s labour and product markets are less open.
But it’s wrong to think that this will be a cause of persistently high inflation in the UK. The MPC has the tools in order to ensure that inflation returns to the target. And we’ve shown our willingness to act accordingly.
So you could regard it as a factor affecting potential output, but not a reason for persistent high inflation.
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Bailey says Covid and Brexit have both reduced cross-border flow of people, but hard to tell yet which is worse for inflation
In an article for the Financial Times Adam Posen, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, says Brexit has made the UK particularly vulnerable to inflation.
Sometimes, reality bites. The UK outlook for stagflation of rising prices and slowing economic growth this year and next reflects the realities that Brexit has wrought.
Of course, the Covid pandemic, the difficulties of reopening the economy, and now energy and food price surges are not caused by Brexit.
But the UK’s vulnerability to those shocks, and therefore the amplification of their inflation impact, is largely due to Britain’s departure from the EU. This is why the Bank of England will end up having to raise interest rates over the next year more than it forecast this month, and even more than markets have already priced in. Given the very hard Brexit, the Bank of England and the UK economy have been dragged part way back to the 1970s.
At the Commons Treasury committee Andrew Bailey was asked if he agreed. In response, he said Posen was arguing that if the UK become a more closed market after Brexit, it would become inflexible. But it was hard to judge, he said. He said the biggest impact on the labour market had been Covid-related. (See 3.31pm.) There was a net migration affect too, he said, but it was hard to calculate.
He also said it was hard to separate the impact of Covid and the impact of Brexit, because “both of them have reduced the cross-border flow of people”. He went on:
I think in time we will know the answer to that. But at the moment it is very hard to make that judgment, because Covid is having the same effect.
Donaldson says it's 'puerile nonsense' for Sinn Féin to claim UK government siding with DUP
And this is what Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP meeting, told the media after his meeting with Boris Johnson.
We have been reasonable and patient. Last September, I warned that the protocol was the cause of instability, and the institutions were not sustainable.
The government has known what is needed. We published our seven tests in July last year. Our tests were not grounded in a unionist wish list, but in promises already made in one form or another, to the people of Northern Ireland. It’s time for the government to stand over those promises.
In January 2020, the New Decade New Approach Agreement pledged the government to action, yet more than two years later, the prime minister is still talking about action. The time for talking is over. This is time for action.
Devolution must be built on stable foundations. These institutions only have value if they enjoy the confidence and support of the people they were established to serve. Not one unionist MLA supports the protocol. That makes it impossible for power sharing to operate.
Progress is only made in Northern Ireland with the support of unionists and nationalists. If no nationalists supported the protocol, Washington, London, Brussels and Dublin would be demanding change. If this protocol had resulted in checks, costs and charges between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, there would be outrage.
The DUP has a mandate to see the protocol replaced with arrangements that restore our place within the UK internal market. Our mandate will be respected.
As Amanda Ferguson reports, Donaldson also claimed that the Sinn Féin allegation the UK government is trying to placate the DUP was “puerile nonsense”.
“The idea the Prime Minister is taking sides is for the fairies.” says DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson. Sinn Féin has ‘silly approach of attacking everyone who doesn’t agree with them’ ‘They are very good at double standards’ ‘They need to stop this purile nonsense’
— Amanda Ferguson (@AmandaFBelfast) May 16, 2022
UPDATE: PA Media has more on what Donaldson said about Sinn Féin.
In response to questions on whether Johnson was “on the DUP’s side”, Donaldson said that the assertion was “for the fairies”, and that Johnson was meeting with Stormont leaders because it is “his job to protect Northern Ireland”.
“Sinn Fein need to stop this puerile nonsense that they’ve been engaging in of late, get serious and let’s deal with serious issues, instead of this silly approach that they take of attacking everybody who doesn’t agree with them.
“The prime minister has a duty to resolve these issues, that is why he is here.”
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Rising food prices caused by Ukraine war 'major worry' for Bank of England, MPs told
Back at the Treasury committee Andrew Bailey says he is concerned about the global supply of food, and what shortages will do for inflation.
That is a “major worry”, not just for this country but for the developing world too.
He recalls a meeting attended by the Ukrainian finance minister. They said they had food in store, he says. But the Ukrainains are not able to export their food, and that situation is getting worse.
Ukraine is a major source of wheat and cooking oil, he says.
UPDATE: Warning MPs that he was going to be “apocalyptic” about food, Bailey recalled the meeting where the Ukrainian finance minister was present. He went on:
Two things the Ukrainian finance minister said; one is Ukraine does have food in store but it cannot get it out at the moment.
Two, Ukraine is a major supplier of wheat, a major supplier of cooking oil, he was pretty optimistic about planting interestingly, but he said at the moment we have no way of shipping it out as things stand.
That is a major worry and it is not just a major worry for this country. It is a major worry for the developing world as well. Sorry for being apocalyptic but that is a major concern.
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Sinn Féin says it got 'no straight answers' from Johnson
Back to Northern Ireland, and this is what Mary Lou McDonald, the Sinn Féin presdent, told the media after her meeting with Boris Johnson.
It’s very clear to us that despite all of the rhetoric from the British Government about re-establishing the Executive here in the north, that in fact their priority is placating the DUP.
We’ve had what we would describe as a fairly tough meeting with the prime minister.
We have put it to him very directly that the absolute priority is getting government working here in the north.
People are facing incredible difficulties in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis, and it’s simply not acceptable, it’s not good enough for anybody, the DUP or the British government, to hold society here to ransom.
She also said she and her colleagues told Johnson that the plan for legislation that would allow the UK government to abandon parts of the Northern Ireland protocol was wrong. She said:
We have said directly to him that proposed unilateral act of legislating at Westminster is wrong.
It seems to us absolutely extraordinary that the British government would propose to legislate to break the law. It’s an extraordinary proposal and one that would amplify the bad faith with which the Tory government has conducted itself from beginning of the entire Brexit debacle.
We have told him very clearly that we are here to do business. The people have spoken. We have had the election, the votes have been counted, the die has been cast. Michelle O’Neill is the first minister in waiting and we want to get on with things and get back to business.
I’m sorry to report that we’ve had no straight answers really from the British prime minister except a confirmation of what we already knew, which is that in fact this impasse is entirely co ordinated between themselves and the DUP, and if the DUP are acting shamefully in holding back government, well then the British government is behaving even more shamefully.
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Sir Dave Ramsden, deputy governor of the Bank of England, tells the Treasury committee that monetary policy (interest rate rises) has an effect.
But on its own it is not enough to counter all the economic shocks that are pushing up inflation, he says.
Bailey says it is know that some people saved a lot during the pandemic.
He says some of these people will be using their savings while they decide whether or not they want to go back to work in the way they were working before the pandemic.
It is not clear what the will decide, he says.
Bailey says the Bank has spoken to Prof Sir Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, about long Covid. He says the understanding of long Covid has changed a lot over the last year.
Bailey says Bank of England surprised by large fall in size of labour market
Bailey says one factor is that the labour market is now smaller by about 450,000, or 1.3%, now than it was pre-Covid.
He says there has been a 3% increase in the proportion of people economically inactive.
There are more people who are long-term sick, he says.
He says it is not clear why. Some of it is likely to be long Covid, he says. And he says some people might be nervous about going back to work because of Covid.
UPDATE: Bailey said:
We have seen a fall in the size of the labour market; since 2019, we’ve seen a fall of around 450,000, or 1.3%.
In the margin of the labour force it’s a very big fall and represents a 3% increase in number of economically inactive people, meaning someone who isn’t searching for a job, unlike an unemployed person who is looking for one.
The scale and persistence of this drop has been a surprise to us.
We have seen an increase in long-term sickness in that number of about 320,000 people, and so what we’ve done in the main monetary policy report is to lower the projected view of labour participation.
We now expect that to be flat at 63% of the working-age population. We originally thought we might have a recovery to 63.5%.
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'We can't predict things like wars' – Bank of England governor responds to claims from MPs it has messed up inflation forecast
Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, is giving evidence now.
Mel Stride, the committee chair, starts by putting it to Bailey that the committee has failed to gets its inflation forecast right. (See 3.19pm.)
Bailey says that 80% of the overshoot of the inflation target is caused by energy and tradable goods.
He says it is not for the Bank of England to forecast wars.
We can’t predict things like wars ... that’s not really in our power.
He also says that to have a series of shocks to the economy like the ones that the UK has experienced, Covid and then the Ukraine war, is “almost unprecedented”.
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Andrew Bailey is at the Commons Treasury committee at a time when the Bank of England seems increasingly unpopular with ministers, and with the Conservative party generally.
Here is the Sunday Telegraph splash.
The Sunday Telegraph: Ministers turn on Bank of England #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/v5mTXzB9bN
— Helena Wilkinson (@BBCHelena) May 14, 2022
This is how the paper’s story by Edward Malnick and Tom Rees started.
Cabinet ministers have turned on the Bank of England over rising inflation, with one warning that the Bank had been failing to “get things right” and another suggesting that it had failed a “big test”.
In a highly unusual attack, one of the senior ministers warned: “It has one job to do – to keep inflation at around two per cent – and it’s hard to remember the last time it achieved its target.”
The other said government figures were “now questioning its independence”, suggesting Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, should do more to hold Andrew Bailey, the Bank Governor, to account.
The interventions reflect growing frustration among Conservative MPs and ministers about the Bank’s approach to inflation, which currently sits at seven per cent – five percentage points above its target.
And this is what Liam Fox, the Conservative former cabinet minister, said on Twitter earlier today.
It is the duty of central banks to safeguard the value of our money. Yet the @bankofengland has persistently underestimated the inflationary threat and the problem of excess money supply. The @CommonsTreasury should launch a wide-ranging investigation as a matter of urgency.
— Dr Liam Fox MP (@LiamFox) May 16, 2022
MPs question Bank of England governor about risk of recession
Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, is about to give evidence to the Commons Treasury committee about the risk of a recession.
This is what the committee send out earlier telling journalists what would be coming up.
The BoE is forecasting a sharp slowdown in UK growth in the latter part of 2022. Following its May 2022 Monetary Policy Report, where the Bank increased interest rates to one percent, MPs are likely to seek witnesses’ views on the probability of the UK facing a recession this year or next.
The committee is likely to explore whether the BoE’s recent decision to increase interest rates contributed to the worsening of the economic outlook for the UK, as well as rises in the cost of living.
The BoE has recently made significant alterations to its inflation forecasts, predicting that inflation will hit 10% this year. MPs could discuss the likelihood of further increases in inflation, as well as how global factors such as the war in Ukraine and domestic pressures such as a tight labour market are impacting on inflation prospects in the UK.
Witnesses’ views are also likely to be sought on the impacts of rising prices in energy and tradable goods, the impact of interest rate increases on mortgage costs and house prices, how consumers are likely to respond to the cost of living crisis, and the resulting outlook for business investment.
Sinn Féin accuses Johnson of wanting to 'placate the DUP' after 'tough' meeting at Hillsborough
Sinn Féin has accused Boris Johnson of placating the DUP and not prioritising the resumption of the power-sharing executive. Mary Lou McDonald, the party’s president, made these points when she spoke to reporters after her meeting with the PM. These are from Amanda Ferguson from Reuters, Chris Page from the BBC and Anushka Asthana from ITV.
SF Mary Lou says ‘tough meeting’ with Boris Johnson. Clear to us despite all the rhetoric about establishing govt in north, it’s about placating the DUP. Unilateral action would amplify the bad faith since the beginning of this debacle. No straight answers from British PM. pic.twitter.com/XTX3Q5fd8a
— Amanda Ferguson (@AmandaFBelfast) May 16, 2022
.@MaryLouMcDonald says Sinn Féin has had a “tough meeting” with Boris Johnson; she says the British government’s priority is to “placate the DUP”. On prospect of unilateral action on protocol, she says it’s “extraordinary” the government would “legislate to break the law” pic.twitter.com/Pgcp2nFvZZ
— Chris Page (@ChrisPageTV) May 16, 2022
Breaking: Sinn Fein’s @MaryLouMcDonald says they’ve had a “tough” meeting with the pm and clear that the British govt priority is not getting Stormont up and running. pic.twitter.com/ucNY7jxUE4
— Anushka Asthana (@AnushkaAsthana) May 16, 2022
She says “in the mind of Boris Johnson government here in the north” involves placating dup on protocol. “Our absolute dismay” that this is where we are at.
— Anushka Asthana (@AnushkaAsthana) May 16, 2022
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Boris Johnson was booed and jeered by about 200 people outside the gates of Hillsborough Castle as his cavalcade drove in, PA Media reports.
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Peter Foster, the Financial Times’ Brexit expert, thinks that a deal between the EU and the UK over the Northern Ireland protocol is still possible - but that hardline Brexiters in the Tory party are probably the biggest obstacle to it happening. He explains why in a Twitter thread starting here.
Worth reading @BorisJohnson oped…and then imagining if it had been written after 18 months of good-faith engagement — as NI business had done — rather than grandstanding and threats. There are still accessible solutions here…/1https://t.co/1nWgklJEi0 pic.twitter.com/WOFQahi6Yx
— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) May 16, 2022
Mary Lou McDonald, the president of Sinn Féin, and Michelle O’Neill, the party’s leader in Northern Ireland, have arrived at Hillsborough Castle for talks with Boris Johnson.
These are from Amanda Ferguson, reporting for Reuters.
I asked Mary Lou McDonald for Reuters what’s the message on the protocol to the UK government. She said: “That they can’t legislate to break the law” pic.twitter.com/Hno5nuaMoM
— Amanda Ferguson (@AmandaFBelfast) May 16, 2022
As Sinn Féin leaders arrived at the protest area a sturdy, I think middle aged and English, gentleman was walking past. He shouted at the top of his voice ‘God Save the Queen’ just as Mary Lou was starting to say “We’re here in Ireland…” #hillsborough pic.twitter.com/HsnquONQ3A
— Amanda Ferguson (@AmandaFBelfast) May 16, 2022
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A demonstration has taken place in Hillsborough, County Down during a visit by Boris Johnson over his government’s proposals for dealing with Northern Ireland’s troubled past, PA Media reports. PA says:
Some of the families of the 11 people killed by soldiers in Ballymurphy in west Belfast in 1971 protested against the plans to offer an amnesty for Troubles-related crime.
The Northern Ireland Troubles (legacy and reconciliation) bill will see immunity offered to some depending on their cooperation with a new Independent Commission for Reconciliation and Information Recovery.
The new body aims to help individuals and family members seek and receive information about Troubles-related deaths and serious injuries.
It is also designed to produce a historical record of what is known in relation to every death that occurred during the Troubles.
The proposals leave open the route of prosecution if individuals are not deemed to have earned their immunity.
Grainne Teggart, a campaigns manager for Amnesty International UK, said that with these proposals the government is on a “collision course with rights and the rule of law”.
“They must pull back, now, from a dangerous course of unilateral action on legacy and the protocol,” she said.
“We have yet to see a real departure from plans to legislate for a de facto amnesty. We will be watching closely, along with victims, to see if the strong objections and warnings on lack of human rights compliance have been listened to.”
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Here is an analysis from the Institute for Government earlier this year explaining in detail the differences between the UK and the EU on how the Northern Ireland protocol should be implemented.
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UK’s new aid strategy condemned as ‘double whammy to world’s poor’
A new government white paper on UK aid has been condemned as a “double whammy to the world’s poor”, my colleague Patrick Wintour reports. The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office’s first strategy paper on overseas assistance since the merged department was formed and large-scale cuts were implemented in 2020 is dominated by a near halving of UK aid to multilateral bodies, including the UN and the World Bank, and a renewed focus on aid as an adjunct to trade.
The written ministerial statement from Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, about the white paper is here, and the full document is here. Here is Patrick’s story.
And here is some more comment on the white paper from development charities.
From Sam Nadel, the head of government relations at Oxfam:
While there are some welcome words on the importance of addressing the climate emergency and supporting women and girls, when push comes to shove, this strategy prioritises aid for trade and the financialisation of development. It is clearly motivated more by tackling China than tackling poverty.
From Sarah Brown, the wife of the former prime minister Gordon Brown and the chair of Theirworld, the global education charity:
We are disappointed by the lack of ambition in the government’s international development strategy.
Where is the commitment to end global poverty, reverse climate change, or educate the 260 million children who still don’t have a place in school?
There is little here to comfort those of us still concerned by earlier cuts. The government urgently needs to restore its manifesto commitment to spending 0.7% of gross national income on foreign aid.
And while the government’s stated support for girls’ education is welcome, it is hard to be convinced when education aid has been slashed by a third in recent years. Words need to be backed up with action if the government intends to deliver on its own apparent priorities.
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More than 8,000 people have arrived in the UK this year after crossing the Channel in small boats, PA Media reports. PA says:
Since the start of 2022, 8,393 people have reached the UK after navigating busy shipping lanes from France in small boats, according to analysis of government data by the PA news agency.
This is more than double the number recorded for the same period in 2021 (3,112) and more than six times the figure recorded at this point in 2020 (1,340).
Crossings resumed this weekend, with more than 600 people arriving in Kent over two days, after four consecutive days last week without any taking place amid poor weather conditions.
On Sunday 436 people made the crossing to the UK in nine boats after 167 in 13 boats arrived on Saturday, according to Ministry of Defence figures.
The latest crossings come after the department said it had started to tell asylum seekers they could be flown to Rwanda under its new deportation plan, with flights expected to begin in “the coming months”.
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Starmer says as soon as police reopened Beergate investigation he knew 'deep down' he would have to promise to resign if fined
Here is the key line from Keir Starmer on Beergate in his Loose Women interview.
- Starmer claimed that, as soon as he heard Durham police were going to reopen their investigation into Beergate, he knew he would have to promise to resign if he were fined because “deep down” it was a test of his integrity. He said:
My instinct, as soon as I knew that Durham [police] had decided they were going to reopen this investigation, in my heart I knew what I was going to say, which is if I’m wrong, and they find I have broken the law, then I’ll do the right thing and step down ... I’m trying to make a bigger point here ... which is trust in politics; the number of times I hear ‘You’re all the same, you won’t do the right thing’ ...
As soon as I knew there was a reinvestigation, I knew I was going to say that [that he would resign if he was fined] because that was so deep down inside me as to what I believed, in that there was no way I wasn’t going to say that.
Starmer, who also stressed in the interview that he did not break the rules, clearly feels the need to say this because last week, when he did announce that he would resign if fined by Durham police, there were reports that he had hesitated before making this pledge because of the obvious risk.
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Starmer is now talking about his mother, and Still’s disease, the form of arthritis she had. He says she was diagnosed at the age of 11. At that point she was told that by the time she was in her 20s, she would stop being able to walk. But she was treated with steroids, which was experimental for people her age, and she was very determined. She went on to have four children, he says.
Starmer says he wants to show that all politicians are not the same.
He repeats the point about how, as soon as he heard Durham police were reopening the investigation into Beergate, he knew he would have to resign if he was fined because “deep down, inside me” he felt it was important to show this was a matter of honour.
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Starmer questioned about Beergate on ITV's Loose Women
Keir Starmer is being interviewed on ITV’s Loose Women. The programme is having an arthritis week, and Starmer has been invited on because his mother had the illness.
But the first questions are about Partygate and Beergate.
Q: A poll yesterday said 63% of voters thought you were a hypocrite?
Starmer says he has been very clear he has not broken the rules. But he says, if he is fined, he will resign.
Q: But you said Boris Johnson should resign when the police started their investigation.
Starmer says at that point there had already been industrial-level rule breaking in No 10.
Q: You had a meal for about 30 people.
It was not 30 people, says Starmer. It was nearer 15 people. He says they were on the road. They had to eat. He always travels with a team.
Q: But you have been hoist with your own petard. You were so noisy about Partygate this has hit you in the face.
Starmer says they were on the road. Someone had to organise food. That is what happens when politicians are travelling.
Q: Are you worried about having to resign?
Starmer says he has not broken the rules.
But he says, when he heard he was being investigated, he knew that he had to say he would resign if fined.
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Ciaran Martin, a professor at the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford University, has an interesting Twitter thread on Boris Johnson’s Belfast Telegraph article. It starts here.
The PM’s article on Northern Ireland in @BelTel could be significant, depending on what the Gov’t does subsequently, which could render it irrelevant. But it’s a serious piece of work that deserves attention, so in the meantime, some thoughts 1/8https://t.co/RNofIjmyEb
— Ciaran Martin (@ciaranmartinoxf) May 16, 2022
At one point the UK government was floating the idea of suspending parts of the Northern Ireland protocol by using article 16. But ministers now seem to have abandoned that option in favour of legislation, which may be announced tomorrow but which would take months or even years to become law. Article 16 was not even mentioned in Boris Johnson’s Belfast Telegraph article. John Campbell, the government’s economics and business editor in Northern Ireland, says this is significant.
Not much mention of Art 16 today which would have raised the expectation of action to remove sea border checks within a month. Legislative route is a play for time & in line with the UK approach which believes the EU only moves in the face of belligerence.
— JPCampbellBiz - Open a window, keep your distance (@JP_Biz) May 16, 2022
The Home Office minister Rachel Maclean appeared during a live interview to struggle to answer questions about extensions to stop-and-search powers announced by Priti Patel, PA Media reports. PA says:
Maclean, the safeguarding minister, admitted she did not have a briefing paper in front of her when questioned on the detail of the policy shift.
Patel has made permanent changes to section 60 of the Criminal Justice and Public Order Act, which allows police to search people without reasonable grounds in an area where they expect serious violence.
Effectively undoing limitations put in place in 2014 by then-home secretary Theresa May, Patel has extended the length of time the extra searching powers can be in force for, increasing it from 15 to 24 hours.
Maclean, asked how long a section 60 can be put in place for as part of the move, told LBC: “I think the time is 12 hours, but it has to be renewed on a proportionate basis when the intelligence is reviewed.”
Told it was not 12 hours, but 24 under the changes, she replied: “Oh, forgive me, 24 hours. I need another coffee.”
The safeguarding minister was also told it was 15 hours previously, not 12 as she had stated.
She was then asked how long an extension could be sought if approved by a superintendent, to which Maclean said: “So, there is another time period, which I’m sure you have in front of (you), which I haven’t.”
Told by presenter Nick Ferrari that he did not think she knew the answer following a back-and-forth exchange, Maclean responded: “No, I’m being quite upfront with you. I haven’t got the paper in front of me, forgive me.”
Asked whether she thought she should know such information given she works in the Home Office, the Redditch MP said: “I do know.”
But when asked to share the answer with listeners, she replied: “Look, you’re doing a very good job of demonstrating that I don’t have the papers in front of me now.”
This is from my colleague Jennifer Rankin in Brussels on the UK government’s mixed messaging over the Northern Ireland protocol.
Whatever you think about the Northern Ireland protocol, the UK gov messaging is all over the place.
— Jennifer Rankin (@JenniferMerode) May 16, 2022
Boris Johnson's somewhat conciliatory message in Belfast Telegraph undercut by Sunday briefing.
Perhaps that is the point. Keep backbenchers happy and the EU guessing. pic.twitter.com/gUmr5c89wu
Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Sinn Féin’s leader in Northern Ireland, Michelle O’Neill, have said they recognise there are “serious issues” in relation to the implementation of the Brexit protocol that Boris Johnson is planning to override in part.
But, after a meeting in Dublin this morning, they said the right place for the issues to be resolved was around the negotiating table and not through unilateral moves by the UK.
An Irish government statement said:
They expressed serious concern about possible unilateral moves on the protocol by the British government, which would have a destabilising impact on Northern Ireland.
They recognised that there are genuine issues regarding aspects of the implementation of the protocol but these can be taken forward in the context of EU-UK discussions.
Only agreed outcomes will provide the stability and certainty that Northern Ireland needs.
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Johnson claims Covid and cost of living crisis have boosted case for overhaul of 2019 Northern Ireland protocol
Here are some more lines from Boris Johnson’s article this morning in the Belfast Telegraph.
- Johnson says that he does not want to see the Northern Ireland protocol scrapped, but that he does want the EU to agree to “sensible” changes to it. (See 9.40am.)
- He says all parties in the Northern Ireland assembly want at least some changes to the protocol.
Every unionist representative campaigned against the protocol, as currently constituted. More importantly, every party, across the divide, seeks mitigations and change. None support a zealous zero risk approach to its implementation.
- He says global events since 2019, particularly Covid and the cost of living crisis, have also strengthened the case for an overhaul of the protocol.
Many things have changed since the protocol was agreed. It was designed in the absence of a Trade and Cooperation Agreement and when it was unclear one would be agreed. It has not been adapted to reflect the realities of the TCA.
It was designed before a global pandemic and a European war which has created a cost of living crisis on a scale not seen for half a century.
For there even to be a question about the fast availability of medicines or medical testing in Northern Ireland (between two constituent parts of the same National Health Service) is incompatible with the post-Covid era.
For the chancellor of the exchequer to say in his spring statement that people in Northern Ireland could not be granted the same benefits in terms of tax and VAT as those in the rest of the same country is a serious issue. It means that our ability to assist with post-Covid recovery and — moreover, the long-term economic development of Northern Ireland — is restricted.
- He congratulates Sinn Féin on its victory in the Northern Ireland elections, and says Michelle O’Neill should become first minister. He also accepts that the party has changed considerably since 1998, when it was principally seen as the political wing of the IRA. He says:
So I want to repeat my congratulations to Sinn Fein as the largest party. Respect for the rights and aspirations of all communities are an essential part of the Belfast Good Friday Agreement.
And I think it is testimony to the path that Sinn Fein have taken from 1998 that Michelle O’Neill is now awarded the position of First Minister. I have no doubt we will work together well.
- But he also says that “unionist parties performed well” in the elections, and he also pays tribute to the non-aligned Alliance party, which saw its seat share more than double. (In fact, the three unionist parties in the assembly saw their combined share of the vote, and their number of seats, fall in the elections.)
- He says the election results showed there was “a large majority for making Northenr Ireland work”. He says:
Taken together, what the election results tell me is that the basis for successful power-sharing and stability is actually enhanced. Whichever way you cut it, there is a large majority for making Northern Ireland work.
- He says he wants to embrace the “hybridity” of modern Northern Ireland, which is meant to accommodate people with different national identities. He says:
Nor is there some perfect constitutional clockwork version of how the Union should be. Northern Ireland has always been a place in its own right, in which governance has been contested, broken, re-imagined and carefully nurtured.
Those arrangements continue to evolve. And far better, I think, is the Northern Ireland of today in which people look any way they want (north-south, east-west, or both) — depending on their identity, and their family, and their economic interests.
In today’s debates about Brexit and the Protocol, let us embrace that hybridity. Let us make it work.
- He confirms that the UK government is going ahead with three reforms required under the New Decade New Approach deal that have been stalled while the power-sharing executive has been suspended: on language rights, on access to abortion, and on legacy issues (accountability for crimes committed during the Troubles).
Michelle O’Neill, the Sinn Féin leader in Northern Ireland who is set to become first minister if the power-sharing executive reconvenes (the DUP are blocking its formation because they want the NI protocol issued resolved first), posted this on Twitter this morning after a meeting in Dublin with the taoiseach, Micheál Martin.
Met with An Taoiseach at government buildings this morning. Shared priority to have a functioning Assembly & Executive without delay. The democratic outcome of the election must be respected. People cannot wait a day longer for parties to get to work on their behalf. pic.twitter.com/1KzeZInVdo
— Michelle O’Neill (@moneillsf) May 16, 2022
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Minister criticised after saying one long-term option for people in cost of living crisis is getting better-paid job
Rachel Maclean, a Home Office minister, was doing the morning interview round earlier, and in an interview with Sky News she suggested that people who were struggling could work longer hours or get a better paid job. She said:
I think what we need to focus on now is over the long-term. We do have these short-term pressures on us that we’re all aware of.
But over the long-term we need to have a plan to grow the economy and make sure that people are able to protect themselves better, whether that is by taking on more hours or moving to a better-paid job. These are long-term actions but that is what we are focused on as a government.
As the quote shows, Maclean was talking about the government’s long-term plans for the economy, rather than trying to make a point about the immediate crisis. She accepted that working extra hours was not an option for everyone. She said:
It may be right for some people, they may be able to access additional hours, but, of course, it is not going to work for people who are already in three jobs.
That’s why we need to have the other measures, such as all the help we are putting into schools, the help with the local authorities ... and that’s where we are going to target help to where it is most needed.
But in politics the nuance often gets lost, and opposition parties, and unions, have accused Maclean of being out of touch.
This is from David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary.
Tone deaf, out of touch and condescending in a cost of living crisis.@BorisJohnson’s @Conservatives have run out of road. https://t.co/yizXwd5WXr
— David Lammy (@DavidLammy) May 16, 2022
This is from Wendy Chamberlain, the Lib Dem work and pensions spokesperson.
So the Conservatives’ answer to the cost-of-living emergency is that people should just earn more? This shows just how out of touch they truly are.
Millions of families have had to make huge cutbacks and taken on extra work in order to weather the cost of living crisis. They simply cannot do any more.
And this is from Frances O’Grady, the general secretary of the TUC.
Working people don’t need lectures – they need help. Millions are working flat out but are still struggling to cover the basics.
It’s a bit rich for ministers to tell people to find better-paid work – especially when they have presided over an explosion of low-paid and insecure jobs.
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Donaldson says 'outcome' matters more than whether NI protocol removed in its entirety
And here are more lines from what Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader, said on BBC Radio Ulster this morning.
- Donaldson suggested that he could accept an outcome that did not involve the Northern Ireland protocol being removed entirely. Often the DUP has implied that it wants the whole of the protocol abolished. But when asked about the gap between that position, and Boris Johnson saying he did not want to scrap it (see 9.40am), Donaldson replied:
We’re in a negotiating process and people start from different points, but in the end it is the outcome that matters, that’s what I’m focused on getting, and as soon as we get a solution that removes that Irish Sea border.
- He said he wanted “action” from Johnson on the protocol, not just “words”. He said:
Words don’t cut it for me, I need action and that’s how I will judge what the prime minister does, not necessarily what he says.
I want his words translated into clear action.
I will judge what the government does and I will look at the credibility of what that is and the impact it has in terms of removing that Irish Sea border.
- He said he had not seen the proposals the government is due to announce tomorrow for legislation that would allow it to ignore parts of the protocol.
- He said the DUP was still committed to the seven tests he set out in a speech last year that he would use to judge whether reform of the protocol was adequate. He said:
We set out last summer seven tests against which we would judge any action taken by the government on the protocol, so my position has not changed on that.
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Mel Stride, the Conservative chair of the Commons Treasury committee, has become the latest senior Tory to say there is a case for looking at a windfall tax on energy companies.
Speaking on the Today programme, and referring to an interview yesterday in which Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, said a windfall tax would be a bad idea, Stride said:
I think you have to take a balanced view of all these things, Kwasi’s absolutely right that, in principle, putting up taxes unannounced, effectively, retrospectively, just puts a large sign up that says, ‘it’s not a good place to invest’, and we don’t want to do that.
At the same time, we are in extraordinary circumstances, the supernormal profits that these companies have made are vast, and I personally think there is a case now for looking at a one-off windfall tax and channelling that money in towards those who are really struggling and are bearing the brunt of these cost-of-living challenges.
Robert Halfon, the Tory chair of the education committee, has called for a windfall fax, and William Hague, the former party leader, has said that a tax on a genuine windfall is something Conservative governments have imposed in the past. Last week Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, also indicated that he was not opposed to windfall taxes on principle.
DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson says he wants 'action' from PM on NI protocol, not just 'words'
The Democratic Unionist party (DUP) will face a familiar choice this week: to trust or not to trust Boris Johnson. Its reward for smoothing his path to the Conservative party leadership and Downing Street has been betrayal. An Irish Sea border would happen over his dead body, he vowed, before signing the Northern Ireland protocol.
When the prime minister meets Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the MP and DUP leader, at Hillsborough Castle later today he is expected to talk up the pending legislation that would give the UK the right to override parts of the protocol.
Johnson hopes to convince Donaldson that tabling such legislation this week – which will infuriate the EU – is sufficient reason for the DUP to swiftly revive the Stormont assembly and executive.
Donaldson faces a dilemma. Does he believe Johnson will steer the legislation into law, which could take over a year, and actually use it? Or at least use the leverage to extract serious concessions from the EU? If so Donaldson could end the Stormont impasse this week.
Few people in the DUP trust the prime minister. But the party is torn. It is under pressure from a radical right-wing rival, the Traditional Unionist Voice, that will want to see the protocol actually shredded, be it a year or more from now, before any revival of Stormont. On the other hand the longer the impasse lasts the more it will alienate moderate unionists who have been defecting to the centrist Alliance party. Time is not on the DUP’s side. It would be so much easier if they could trust the PM.
Asked on BBC Radio Ulster this morning whether the tabling of legislation will suffice, Donaldson sounded tough but left wiggle room, saying he will judge Johnson on what he does, not what he says. He said:
Words don’t cut it for me. I need action ... I want his words translated into clear action.
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Irish foreign minister says unilateral UK action over NI protocol could affect Brexit trade deal
Ireland’s foreign minister, Simon Coveney, has warned Boris Johnson against any unilateral move to change the Northern Ireland protocol, saying it would call into question the UK’s trade deal with the European Union.
Speaking in Brussels ahead of a meeting with his EU counterparts, Coveney said:
What we can’t do is accept that the British government would act unilaterally, they would pass legislation to effectively breach international law, to set aside elements of a treaty that of course this prime minister was central to designing and putting in place. Because that will cause an awful lot more problems than it will solve.
Unilateral action by the British government “calls into question” the functioning of the UK’s trade and co-operation agreement with the EU, he said.
The Northern Ireland protocol is part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement signed by Johnson in 2019. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement agreed in 2020 by the two sides allows British goods tariff-free access to EU markets.
If the UK overrides some or all of the Northern Ireland protocol, the EU could impose tariffs on British goods or even suspend the entire trade agreement. Diplomats say they need to see the kind of action the UK takes before deciding on the nature and scale of retaliatory action.
The two agreements were linked, Coveney said. Unilateral action against the protocol would only mean “tension, rancour, stand-offs, legal challenge and of course calls into question the functioning of the TCA itself”.
The EU, he said, wanted to be negotiating and discussing with the UK how to respond to the “outstanding issues” of the protocol, including “how we can respond to the unionist community that have been offended by elements of the protocol”.
While acknowledging Unionist concerns, Coveney said “we can’t solely be focusing on one community and one political party”, pointing to the fact a majority of Northern Ireland assembly members backed the protocol. He added:
But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t accommodate other opinions because Northern Ireland is about compromise.
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Boris Johnson visits Belfast, saying he does not want to ‘scrap’ NI protocol
Good morning. Most prime ministers over the last 50 years have devoted a considerable amount of their time to Northern Ireland. That has not been true of Boris Johnson, who has never shown great interest in the place and, even when Northern Ireland and the backstop was derailing the Brexit negotiations during Theresa May’s premiership, declared at one meeting: “The Northern Ireland issue is a gnat.”
But today Johnson is visiting Belfast and, ahead of his trip, he has written a surprisingly thorough and considered 2,000-word article for the Belfast Telegraph about the region and its politics. He has tweeted a link.
Today I’m visiting Northern Ireland with a clear message: the UK government will play its part to ensure political peace & democracy, but the parties must come together to restore power sharing and tackle cost of living pressures.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) May 16, 2022
My article in @BelTel:https://t.co/SzOIsJ1dvx
His visit takes place a day before a government announcement about legislation that would allow the UK government to abandon parts of the Northern Ireland protocol – a provocative move that has infuriated the EU, since it was first reported about a week ago, and that could theoretically trigger a trade war with the EU. Here is our preview.
But, after days of aggressive sabre rattling from the UK government, Johnson is now adopting a more conciliatory approach in his Belfast Telegraph article. He insists that the UK does not want to scrap the protocol, and that he believes a “sensible landing spot” in the talks with the EU about changes to how it operates is possible. He says:
The protocol was agreed in good faith. And it is why those who want to scrap the protocol, rather than seeking changes, are focusing on the wrong thing ...
There is without question a sensible landing spot in which everyone’s interests are protected. Our shared objective must be to the create the broadest possible cross-community support for a reformed protocol in 2024.
This is quite different from the tone adopted by Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, in recent days. Whether that is because they are engaged in a diplomatic version of the “good cop, bad cop” routine with regards to Brussels, or whether it is because No 10 has belatedly concluded that Truss’s belligerency was counterproductive, is not clear.
I will post more on the article soon.
Here is the agenda for the day.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
12:30pm: Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer on ITV talk show Loose Women. In his first Loose Women interview, Sir Keir will be talking about scandals at Westminster and his mother’s arthritis as it will be Arthritis Care Awareness Week.
Afternoon: Johnson holds talks with the Northern Ireland political leaders at Hillsborough Castle. At some point Johnson will also visit Thales, the Northern Ireland defence company that has been producing equipment used in Ukraine.
2.30pm: Michael Gove, the levelling up secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
3.15pm: Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, gives evidence to the Commons Treasury committee.
After 3.30pm: The Queen’s speech debate resumes, covering education and social care.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com.
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