The Conservatives ended up with a net loss of 487 seats in the May 5 local elections. Labour gained 108 and the Liberal Democrats 223.
The scale of the Conservative losses has led to speculation that prime minister Boris Johnson’s majority could be in jeopardy at the next general election – due to take place in 2024 at the latest.
It should be noted that turnouts are much lower in local elections compared with general elections and that local contests do not take part in all parts of the country at the same time. That means we are not comparing like with like here. However, historical data does suggest that when parties fare badly in a midterm local election, they do indeed go on to do badly in a general election.
