BORIS Johnson’s resignation – if you can call it that, he’s still in post – felt somewhat anti-climactic, given the dramatic events of the past few days.
Most in Westminster are still digesting the not-quite white flag offered by Johnson, with the SNP currently mulling Labour’s plans for a parliamentary bid to topple the Prime Minister.
Johnson is at the weakest moment of his political life but plans to stay in post until the autumn and preside over his hastily cobbled-together Government.
Labour leader Keir Starmer has called for a vote of no-confidence in the Prime Minister, pledging his party “will step up”.
But they need the support of half of MPs and many of Johnson’s fiercest critics within the party may prefer their man over the prospect of a Labour (minority or majority) Government.
What does it mean for Scottish independence?
One of Johnson’s last acts before announcing his resignation was rejecting Nicola Sturgeon’s request to grant a Section 30 order.
His successors are unlikely to look any more favourably on the issue of Scottish independence and that refusal is unlikely to change.
But the possibility of a snap General Election triggered in the event of a no-confidence vote in the Commons could present the SNP with an opportunity to gain a mandate for independence.
This would subvert the First Minister’s timetable, given she did not anticipate the chaos of the past few days.
She had relied on the more straightforward path of the Supreme Court ruling on the referendum bill and, if the Scottish Government were defeated by “Westminster legislation”, fighting the next General Election – at that point expected in 2024 – on the sole issue of independence.
The SNP’s policy convener Toni Giugliano told The National in the event of a snap poll, the party should be ready to skip ahead a step and fight on the sole issue of independence.
Privately, some in the SNP fear this may put the Yes movement at a disadvantage, especially given the extraordinarily high bar set by the party leadership of a 51% of votes being cast in favour of pro-independence parties.
SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford told The National he was going over the day’s developments when asked if he had been approached by Labour regarding a no-confidence vote.
But he added: “At the end of the day, this man is a danger to democracy.”
One of his lieutenants, Richard Thomson, the MP for Gordon, said the resignation statement was “not good enough”.
He tweeted: “Go to the palace. Go directly to the palace. Do not pass ‘Go’. Do not collect £200.”
The SNP have pledged to keep pushing for independence, with Sturgeon and Blackford today both highlighting that the ultimate outcome of Westminster wrangling would still result in Scotland having a Government it didn’t vote for.
“Our concentration is making sure we drive on to independence,” said Blackford.
“Westminster isn’t working for Scotland and I’m relieved Boris Johnson is gone but what we’re going to get is another Tory Prime Minister that Scotland didn’t vote for.”
Last week, the Sunday National explored the “de-facto referendum” strategy in detail and Alba leader Alex Salmond said he was more optimistic than most Johnson could yet grant a Section 30 order given his extraordinarily weak position.
The entire Government – being dubbed by some as a “caretaker” administration until Johnson finally walks – is now in a desperately weak position, but with the arch-Unionist Scottish Secretary Alister Jack still in post and Johnson still in No. 10, the odds of this happening appear vanishingly small.
