When Boris Johnson was seeking re-election as London mayor in 2012, the mood was bleak. Three months before the vote, the Tories were 17 points behind in the polls and his team were concerned that they were heading to defeat. As the Conservatives tend to do in times of trouble, they called in Lynton Crosby .
The campaign, as Tom Bower documents in The Gambler, his biography of Johnson, was quickly changed. Out was the strategy to focus on plans for “Boris Island” – the doomed Thames estuary airport – and new funds for street parties. In was a new sense of discipline by which Johnson would focus on five key issues: police, crime, housing, transport and the economy.
Johnson went on to win. But not everyone was happy with the new direction of travel. His PR chief, Guto Harri – who was appointed No 10 director of communications on Saturday – lamented: “Lynton’s taking the bubbles out of the champagne.” In other words, Johnson was being turned into just another politician.
As the prime minister’s latest reset gets under way, MPs are unsure which version of Johnson they are being sold: a new, serious one or a return to the joker.
There have been plenty of calls for greater discipline and a smoother No 10 operation after months of chaos over “partygate”. It’s why Johnson’s claim to MPs last week that Crosby would be offering regular strategic advice was met with cheers.
But since then the Tory election guru has played down his role and the great reboot has got off to a clunky start. The first full week of the reset has been dominated by a row over his comments on Keir Starmer and Jimmy Savile (including protesters mobbing the Labour leader); speculation over the number of no confidence letters that have been submitted; and the faint praise of Johnson’s new press chief, who declared in an interview that his new boss was “not a complete clown”.
The appointment of Harri to director of communications and the Cabinet Office minister Steve Barclay to chief of staff – along with a mini-reshuffle of Johnson’s ministerial team – was meant to reassure MPs and suggest that Johnson was in control after a slew of resignations. But while Johnson succeeded in avoiding an immediate backlash, both have been met with a mixed reaction.
Barclay’s appointment is the more popular of the two. He is viewed as a safe pair of hands who will keep MPs connected to No 10 – a crucial task when Johnson is trying to avoid 54 letters of no confidence going in and triggering a vote on his leadership.
But there are some ministers who are concerned he could be both ineffective and controlling. He will be balancing one of the trickiest roles in No 10 with ministerial duties and his own constituency work. “He’s a technocrat,” says one senior Tory. “He’s a less efficient Dan [Rosenfield, former Downing Street chief of staff] but hopefully less up his own arse.”
As for Harri’s appointment, not everyone is thrilled to see the bubbles back in the champagne. While one cabinet minister praises the fact he has a longstanding relationship with Johnson so will “know how to get the best out of him”, the fact that the press chief kickstarted the job with an interview declaring that the pair “had a little blast” of Gloria Gaynor’s I Will Survive on his appointment has rung alarm bells.
Traditionally advisers should avoid becoming the story. “You couldn’t make it up,” says a member of the 2017 intake. ‘“I presumed it was a parody.” “Before you know it he will be doing the broadcast round on the Today programme,” jokes a former government aide. Another adds “he’s the new Scaramucci”, in reference to Donald Trump’s former press chief who lasted just 10 days. Reports that he lobbied on behalf of Huawei have only added to doubts.
Meanwhile, MPs on the right of the party are concerned that Harri’s appointment is at odds with reassurances from Johnson that his government will focus on traditional Tory values after its recent difficulties. “We’re being told he will scrap the woke stuff but he’s just hired someone who took the knee on television,” says one such MP, in reference to Harri’s exit from GB News.
But the bigger problem with Johnson’s reboot goes beyond personnel changes. As a general rule, government resets rarely come from a position of strength. Over the past three months, Johnson’s authority has seeped away. He serves in No 10 at the pleasure of his MPs – many of whom he has had to placate with multiple promises.
“I give it two months,” says a former minister. “It feels like we are back to a minority government. Boris is governing on MP demands. It’s unsustainable.” Another MP – yet to put a letter in – adds that one of the best things the prime minister has going for him is that his critics believe he is more likely to lose a confidence vote in a few months’ time than now, so some are holding off from submitting letters.
As for Johnson’s mini-reshuffle this afternoon – in which the whips’ office has been shaken up and Jacob Rees-Mogg moved from his role as the leader of the commons to the minister for Brexit opportunities – caution was the word of the day. Johnson’s team were acutely aware it had the potential to backfire. Multiple members of the 2019 intake believe the prime minister has suggested they are on the verge of promotion and are awaiting the call. But such a move would trigger a backlash of its own.
Following the appointment of the 2019-er Andrew Griffith – who previously served as Johnson’s business adviser – as policy chief in the wake of Munira Mirza’s resignation, one MP from an older intake warned that any more promotions among the 2019 group will result in “a bloody nose”. Sending any ambitious ministers to the backbenches to make way for others also risks more letters going in.
In the end, the reshuffle pointed to Johnson’s weakened position. Even those the prime minister was under pressure to sack due to bad performances – as was the case with Rees-Mogg and the new commons leader, Mark Spencer, after their botched plot to spare the former Tory MP Owen Paterson a suspension over a breach of lobbying rules – were simply moved to other government roles. MPs are already complaining that Johnson has missed an opportunity to extend an olive branch to MPs he has becomes estranged from by bringing new blood into his government. Instead he rewarded loyalty and highlighted the limits of his grand reset.
For many MPs, Johnson is on borrowed time. They are acutely aware that this is the second time he has shaken up his team. Briefings that the “grownups” have entered No 10 are all too familiar. It’s the same language that was used when Rosenfield was brought in to replace the Vote Leave regime. If the dysfunction continues, MPs will take it as the final straw: they will conclude that changing the people around Johnson isn’t enough – you have to change the prime minister, too.
Katy Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editor
