As a wounded Boris Johnson roared defiance from his bunker at 10 Downing Street, the mood in his party turned to anger and despair. “It may take a Panzer tank to get him out,” commented a former Cabinet minister from a military background with gallows humour. Another former Cabinet heavyweight said: “He’s not going to give it up. He is going to force them to go all the way. If they want it, they are going to have to take it from him.”
After more than 50 resignations of ministers, advisers and aides, including prominent Cabinet members, no senior Tory MPs thought he could fully recover. But getting him out was not straightforward.
His myriad critics “ballsed up” by failing to secure an instant change in the leadership rules at a meeting of the 1922 Committee executive yesterday. The anti-Johnson plotters wanted to permit an early confidence vote, the sole mechanism in the Tory rulebook that allows backbenchers to prise a leader’s fingers from the levers of power. “No organisation, no co-ordination,” bemoaned a former senior whip about the missed opportunity. The result is that the rules will not be reviewed until next week after a new executive is elected, giving Johnson time to put up more barricades.
His allies believed they could buy time by insisting that any change in the leadership rules must be ratified by the full 1922 Committee, the collective body of backbenchers, another time-consuming barrier for his enemies to overcome.
By last night it was already clear that Johnson could not win a confidence vote. Some of his most senior Cabinet ministers urged him to quit “with dignity” rather than prolong the party’s agonies by delaying the inevitable. Home Secretary Priti Patel, new Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, and even the chief whip, Chris Heaton-Harris, each told the PM he would not win a confidence vote. Another was Grant Shapps, the Transport Secretary, Johnson’s “numbers man” in the 2019 leadership contest who earned a reputation for precision accuracy in his readings of Tory MPs.
The head-spinning crisis, with its record resignation count, is unprecedented even for a party as steeped in the blood of its leaders as the Conservatives. Half of the eight previous Tory leaders over the past half century were ousted in coups, two while serving as prime minister. Sir Edward Heath fell on his sword in 1975 after being outpolled by a young Margaret Thatcher in the first round of a leadership vote. Thatcher in turn was pitched out by her Cabinet when she made the fatal mistake of consulting ministers after a disappointing first round vote against Michael Heseltine, then tearfully accepted her time was up. Iain Duncan Smith, like Johnson, defied critics of his tenure as Opposition leader, joking he would turn the fabled silver revolver on the men in grey suits if they came for him. But he was ousted in a confidence vote by 75-90.
Theresa May was destroyed in a painfully drawn-out leadership crisis, despite winning a confidence vote six months before she finally threw in the towel.
John Major, William Hague and Michael Howard all gave up after heavy general election defeats, although Major survived a botched coup while PM. David Cameron fell on his sword after losing the 2016 Brexit referendum. Against such a gory backdrop, most senior Conservatives agree it is near impossible for Johnson to stagger on for long, let alone to the next election, if only because he has too few loyalists left to fill the holes in his ministerial ranks.
“For the first time in my memory, government is actually coming to a stop because things are so bad,” says one Tory grandee. “We are seeing Commons business being pulled because there are not enough ministers in post. This never happened before, even in the Maastricht wars under John Major. You have to start asking, is the PM off his trolley?”
You have to start asking, is the PM off his trolley?
Allies insisted Johnson was far from losing the plot, but remained dedicated to clawing back public support by focusing on the worries of families, especially the cost of living crisis. They pointed to his “14-million mandate” at the 2019 election as justification for ignoring the views of the ministers and aides who quit.
This line received a hollow laugh from the PM’s critics. When Johnson’s PPS, James Duddridge, talked up his chances on Sky News, former children’s minister Tim Loughton derided him as “Comical Ali”, Saddam Hussein’s cynically optimistic propaganda chief in the Gulf War. Moreover, cracks are emerging in Johnson’s circle. A “senior ally” said: “It’s now a question of how he exits”.
Among Duddridge’s questionable claims were that Johnson still boasted “an electoral magic that he showed as Mayor of London”. Recent by-election defeats suggest the magic had tarnished, though No 10 loyalists claimed a general election will force voters into a choice between the Tory leader and Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer, a contest they argued would play to Johnson’s talents. But the mention of Johnson’s past popularity as a two-term mayor is a reminder of how much has changed during the rise and fall of Boris Johnson. His first victory in 2008 proved the star of Have I Got News For You could reach voters who traditionally shunned the Conservatives.
His re-election in 2012, coinciding with the London Olympics, saw his bumbling but good-natured public persona bloom into a popular national figure. Returning to Westminster, as a backbench MP, he cut an isolated figure at first. Then Cameron’s decision to call the Brexit referendum gave him the platform he needed to become a serious contender for PM.
His first bid collapsed when he was betrayed by Michael Gove, who predicted a Johnson premiership would end in disaster... the same Gove sacked by Johnson last night and branded a “snake” for advising him to quit for a second time. Made Foreign Secretary by Mrs May, Johnson later quit in protest at her doomed Brexit proposals and built a campaign team that crushed all opposition when she fell from office in 2019.
His tenure as Prime Minister has been chaotic and controversial. An attempt to suspend Parliament backfired when the Supreme Court ruled it unlawful. But voters welcomed his decisive leadership after May, and rewarded his vow to “get Brexit done” with an 80-seat majority.
The weaknesses in Johnson’s leadership — inattention to detail, a cavalier attitude to rules, and tolerance of misbehaviour — were in plain sight throughout his rise.
As PM he was, uniquely, fined for breaking his own Covid regulations. The partygate scandals pointed to widespread rule-breaking at No 10. Two ethics advisers quit. A funding scandal erupted over a lavish refurbishment of No 10 involving wealthy donors. Former chief aide Dominic Cummings became his harshest critic.
No 10’s error-strewn handling of the Chris Pincher affair was, for many ministers, a final straw. When former Foreign Office head Lord McDonald revealed No 10 made statements that were “not true”, it was the trigger for the torrent of resignations, led by Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak.
The stage is already being set for a summer leadership contest. Javid signalled his ambitions in his resignation speech in the Commons. Sunak is strongly backed. Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt is a favourite with bookmakers. Former health secretary Jeremy Hunt is positioning himself and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has raised her profile, as has Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. New Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi has reportedly been in talks with Sir Lynton Crosby’s campaign consultancy.
Such is the collapse of ministerial discipline that Suella Braverman, the Attorney General, seemed to be staying in her job despite declaring on TV that the PM should resign and she planned to stand for leader when he does.
What is clear is that the Tory Party was cracking up under Boris Johnson. What’s less obvious is whether any of his potential successors is capable of patching it together.
